Abstract Extreme temperature exposure can have a considerable impact on the health of older adults. China, which has entered a deeply aging society, may be obviously threatened by extreme weather. ...Based on data obtained from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we apply a panel fixed effect model to investigate the impact of extreme temperature on medical costs for older adults. The results reveal a U-shaped relationship between temperature and older adults’ medical costs. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that medical costs for older adults in the South and older adults in rural areas are more significantly affected by low temperatures, mainly due to lower per capita heating facilities. Furthermore, the medical costs of older people with lower education levels are also more susceptible to temperature fluctuations. Our simulated prediction indicates that the medical costs of older adults in 2050 will be 2.7 trillion Chinese yuan under the RCP8.5 scenario, but can be reduced by 4.6% and 7.4% following RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios, respectively. Compared with base period, the medical costs of older adults in western provinces such as Guangxi and Sichuan will more than triple by 2050. Policymakers should prioritize addressing the health needs of these vulnerable groups and less developed regions with less adaptive capacity.
By developing a filtering framework and a sector-level multi-regional input–output structural decomposition model, this study identifies key common emission sources, motivation sources, and ...inter-provincial emission flows of both GHGs and air pollutants and reveals the key driving forces of changes in different emissions from 2012 to 2017. Results show that key common emission sources are electricity sector, non-metallic mineral products, and smelting and processing of metals in Shandong and Hebei. However, key common motivation sources are the construction sectors in Guangdong, Henan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong. The key inflow regions include Guangdong and Zhejiang and key outflow regions include Jiangsu and Hebei. The emission reductions are attributed to the emission intensity effect of the construction sector; contrastingly, the emission increase is from the investment scale of the construction sector. Here, Jiangsu could be a key target for future emission reduction because of its high absolute emissions and low past reduction. The scale of investment in construction might be a significant factor in reducing emissions in Shandong and Guangdong. Henan and Zhejiang could concentrate on sound new building planning and resource recycling.
China formally launched a national carbon trading market in the power sector in 2017. However, electricity prices in China are still subject to government regulation, which reduces the ...cost-effectiveness of the carbon pricing policy. This study uses a computable general equilibrium model to explore how China's electricity prices can be deregulated in two stages in the context of implementing carbon pricing in the electricity sector. The results show that under different government policy objectives, the choice of electricity price deregulation is different. If the government intends to significantly reduce marginal abatement costs and promote carbon emission reductions, the electricity price deregulation of non-key electricity consumption sectors should be prioritized in the first stage and that of the national protected sectors in the second stage. Conversely, if the government intends to reduce GDP losses, households' disposable income, and welfare losses effectively, the liberalization of the electricity prices of key electricity consumption sectors should be prioritized in the first stage and that of the household sector in the second stage. Taking 50% of the reduction targets in the electricity sector as an example, if the key electricity consumption sectors and households are prioritized, GDP losses are reduced by 3.6% and 13%, respectively. The results of this study provide new information for China to implement electricity market reform in the context of carbon pricing.
•Explore the electricity prices deregulation in the context of carbon pricing.•Priority of electricity price release is different under various policy objectives.•The deregulation of electricity prices could reduce the marginal abatement cost.•Deregulation is conducive to protect the economy under a high mitigation target.
► A bottom-up framework is developed to exam the residential carbon intensity in China. ► Energy intensity of activities has a significant and both-side effect. ► End-use mode is the biggest ...contributor on the increase of aggregate carbon intensity. ► Guiding residents’ life styles is summarized as a wise and first policy choice.
The residential sector is the second largest consumer in China with great room for energy consumption growth, as well as the related carbon emissions. Thus, how to reduce the growth rate of carbon emissions is crucial for realizing the target of energy conservation and emission mitigation in the residential sector. Based on a bottom-up framework with survey data and official statistics, this paper examines the changes of aggregate residential carbon intensity, and analyzes its driving factors from an end-use perspective over the period of 1996–2008. The Adaptive Weighting Divisia with rolling base year index specification is applied to identify the quantitative effects of driving components and their further decomposing results of end-use activities. Results show that, the residential aggregate carbon intensity has grown rapidly since 2002 in both urban and rural China. The changes in primary fuel mix for electricity and heat generation have an overall negative but insignificant effect on the residential aggregate carbon intensity, while the effect of final energy structure is positive with a rising tendency. The significant impact of changes in energy intensity shift from negative to positive over time, and contribute more to a decline than to an increase. The driving force arising from the residential end-use mode has the highest contribution to the increase of aggregate carbon intensity. Finally, some policy implications are proposed to effectively slow down the accelerated rate of the residential aggregate carbon intensity. Guiding households towards energy-saving behaviors is recommended as a wise and first policy choice.
Effective investment planning is crucial for achieving economic growth while also protecting the environment. An important premise of guiding investors is identifying low-carbon investment sectors; ...however, no previous research has attempted to discern high- and low-carbon areas at a macro-sector level or conducted a comprehensive assessment with a general equilibrium framework including both status quo and potential effects. Using an environment extended input-output model, structural path analysis model, and China energy and environmental policy analysis model (CEEPA), this study estimates overall carbon emissions driven by unit investment of various sectors in China, highlights the low- and high-carbon investment sectors by developing an investment carbon multiplier indicator, and provides valuable insights for sustainable investment planning by identifying the key sectors and supply chains that require transitions in investment demand and mode. The results show that China is making significant strides toward a greener future, with a shift toward low-carbon investments and economic development. There are currently four typical high-carbon investment sectors and 12 potential low-carbon investment sectors. Investments in agriculture and modern services contribute moderately economically and environmentally. The simulations also reveal that redirecting investments from metal products to computer-related manufacturing represents a promising approach for achieving both economic growth and environmental sustainability, whereas reducing carbon emissions through construction investment will result in socio-economic losses.
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•China's new investments have gradually evolved towards a low-carbon orientation.•There are four high-carbon and twelve low-carbon investment sectors.•Computer-related manufacturing is primary low-carbon development direction.•Investments in metal products, housing and civil construction can be sustained.•Moving investments from metal products to computer-related sectors will be win-win.
Cities are important bases of economic development. It is essential to explore carbon mitigation efforts at the city level, particularly in developing countries with large quantities of energy ...consumption and carbon emission. This study has focused on the impacts of carbon pricing on sectoral prices and the carbon price transmission mechanism across sectors and along price-transmitted paths, taking the city of Beijing, China, as a case. A two-region social accounting matrix for China in 2012 was built, with one region being Beijing, and the other region representing the rest of China (ROC). The SAM price model and structural path analysis were employed to calculate both the extent of and the detailed price transmission of each sector in Beijing when carbon pricing was implemented just in Beijing or in the whole of China. The results show that the growth of prices is not serious and that the Electricity & Heating Production and Supply Sector in both Beijing and the ROC contributes most to the price growth in almost all sectors in Beijing. The price-transmitted paths starting from Non-metallic Mineral Products and Smelting and Pressing of Metals in ROC transmit the carbon price quickly and directly by the shortest paths. While the price-transmitted paths routed by Electricity & Heating Production and Supply Sector, Transport Service, and Other Services will show far-reaching effect.
Having recognised the significant role of natural gas in reducing carbon abatement costs, China is rapidly promoting its growth. However, obvious distortions exist in China's natural gas market, and ...it is unclear how these may affect abatement policies going forward. Therefore, to assess the effects of energy market distortions on the carbon marginal abatement costs (MACs) in China, this study proposes a computable general equilibrium model for China's natural gas sector, which considers the monopoly market structure, price regulation, and import restrictions. Results show that deregulation of gas prices will lead to an effective decrease in China's MACs. China's MACs are insensitive to liberalisation of the market monopoly or gas import restrictions. When all three distortions are fully deregulated, China's MACs show an obvious upward trend. Finally, this study uses China's carbon trading policies as an example to propose policy implications under different scenarios of natural gas market reform.
Coal consumption in China has been almost equal to the consumption of all other countries since 2011, and influenced not only global climate change but also domestic air pollution control, energy ...production and consumption revolution. Coal consumption is closely related to China's whole economy, and its cap control should be based on comprehensive understanding of different economic agents' interactions. Therefore, this study uses the input-output model to identify key relationships to be adjusted which have their significant direct and indirect effects on coal consumption. We find that fixed capital formation in construction having a significant indirect impact on coal consumption in all main coal-intensive sectors, and most of the important production relationships in a sector involve inputs of basic raw materials or fuel, such as building materials in construction. From the perspective of fine structure adjustment to control coal effectively, some non-basic inputs need massive restrictions, such as substantially reducing pesticide and fertilizer application in agriculture, and construction expansion should be limited to a rational growth through reducing short-lived buildings, constraining low-level redundant construction of roads and buildings, and minimizing the vacancy rate and incremental construction area. Moreover, export of coke, chemicals, and chemical products should be discouraged from the perspective of coal control, and urban households should consume daily chemical and pharmaceutical products more rationally.
•Paths to structural adjustment for coal control were identified.•Investment in construction has significant impacts.•Structure could be adjusted by phasing out backward production capacity.
To deal simultaneously with the environmental problems caused by the current high-intensity exploitation and extensive use of coal resources, it is necessary to perform a scientific prediction of the ...trend and, especially, the peak of China’s coal demand. Based on the historical data on coal consumption and four primary factors (economic growth, energy structure, investment, and industrial structure) during the period of 1981–2015, this study established a hybrid model for coal demand prediction, using particle swarm optimization and cointegration methods. According to the prediction results combined with the actual statistics, in the business-as-usual scenario, China’s coal demand had peaked in 2014, then a downward trend started with an average annual decline rate of 5.85% for 2016 to 2020. However, future coal demand will keep increasing in the pessimism scenario. And in the optimism scenario, coal demand will decline much faster than the business-as-usual scenario. Sensitive analysis on four influential factors shows that coal demand is more sensitive to changes in investment and industrial structure, and more emphasis should be put on the supply and the demand side of coal industry.
•Hybrid models were constructed to forecast China’s coal demand.•In the business-as-usual scenario, China’s coal consumption had peaked in 2014.•In the pessimism scenario, coal demand will keep increasing till 2020.•In the optimism scenario, decreasing rate of coal demand will be more than doubled.•Future coal demand is sensitive to investment and industrial structure.
