Abstract
In recent decades, the warming in the Arctic has been much faster than in the rest of the world, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. Numerous studies report that the Arctic is ...warming either twice, more than twice, or even three times as fast as the globe on average. Here we show, by using several observational datasets which cover the Arctic region, that during the last 43 years the Arctic has been warming nearly four times faster than the globe, which is a higher ratio than generally reported in literature. We compared the observed Arctic amplification ratio with the ratio simulated by state-of-the-art climate models, and found that the observed four-fold warming ratio over 1979–2021 is an extremely rare occasion in the climate model simulations. The observed and simulated amplification ratios are more consistent with each other if calculated over a longer period; however the comparison is obscured by observational uncertainties before 1979. Our results indicate that the recent four-fold Arctic warming ratio is either an extremely unlikely event, or the climate models systematically tend to underestimate the amplification.
Aerosol particles cool the climate by scattering solar radiation and by acting as cloud condensation nuclei. Higher temperatures resulting from increased greenhouse gas levels have been suggested to ...lead to increased biogenic secondary organic aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei concentrations creating a negative climate feedback mechanism. Here, we present direct observations on this feedback mechanism utilizing collocated long term aerosol chemical composition measurements and remote sensing observations on aerosol and cloud properties. Summer time organic aerosol loadings showed a clear increase with temperature, with simultaneous increase in cloud condensation nuclei concentration in a boreal forest environment. Remote sensing observations revealed a change in cloud properties with an increase in cloud reflectivity in concert with increasing organic aerosol loadings in the area. The results provide direct observational evidence on the significance of this negative climate feedback mechanism.
A universal turnaround has been detected in many countries of the World from shrinking to expanding forests. The forest area of western Europe expanded already in the 19th century. Such early trends ...of forest resources cannot be associated with the rapid rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide nor with the anthropogenic climate change, which have taken place since the mid 20th century. Modern, most recent spatial patterns of forest expansions and contractions do not correlate with the geography of climate trends nor with dry versus moist areas. Instead, the forest resources trends of nations correlate positively with UNDP Human Development Index. This indicates that forest resources of nations have improved along with progress in human well-being. Highly developed countries apply modern agricultural methods on good farmlands and abandon marginal lands, which become available for forest expansion. Developed countries invest in sustainable programs of forest management and nature protection. Our findings are significant for predicting the future of the terrestrial carbon sink. They suggest that the large sink of carbon recently observed in forests of the World will persist, if the well-being of people continues to improve. However, despite the positive trends in domestic forests, developed nations increasingly outsource their biomass needs abroad through international trade, and all nations rely on unsustainable energy use and wasteful patterns of material consumption.
This article presents a method within a Bayesian framework for quantifying uncertainty in satellite aerosol remote sensing when retrieving aerosol optical depth (AOD). By using a Bayesian model ...averaging technique, we take into account uncertainty in aerosol optical model selection and also obtain a shared inference about AOD based on the best-fitting optical models. In particular, uncertainty caused by forward-model approximations has been taken into account in the AOD retrieval process to obtain a more realistic uncertainty estimate. We evaluated a model discrepancy, i.e., forward-model uncertainty, empirically by exploiting the residuals of model fits and using a Gaussian process to characterise the discrepancy. We illustrate the method with examples using observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on the Sentinel-5 Precursor satellite. We evaluated the results against ground-based remote sensing aerosol data from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET).
Abstract
One major source of uncertainty in the cloud-mediated aerosol forcing arises from the magnitude of the cloud liquid water path (LWP) adjustment to aerosol-cloud interactions, which is poorly ...constrained by observations. Many of the recent satellite-based studies have observed a decreasing LWP as a function of cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) as the dominating behavior. Estimating the LWP response to the CDNC changes is a complex task since various confounding factors need to be isolated. However, an important aspect has not been sufficiently considered: the propagation of natural spatial variability and errors in satellite retrievals of cloud optical depth and cloud effective radius to estimates of CDNC and LWP. Here we use satellite and simulated measurements to demonstrate that, because of this propagation, even a positive LWP adjustment is likely to be misinterpreted as negative. This biasing effect therefore leads to an underestimate of the aerosol-cloud-climate cooling and must be properly considered in future studies.
To better understand and characterize current uncertainties in the important observational constraint of climate models of aerosol optical depth (AOD), we evaluate and intercompare 14 satellite ...products, representing nine different retrieval algorithm families using observations from five different sensors on six different platforms. The satellite products (super-observations consisting of 1°×1° daily aggregated retrievals drawn from the years 2006, 2008 and 2010) are evaluated with AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) data. Results show that different products exhibit different regionally varying biases (both under- and overestimates) that may reach ±50 %, although a typical bias would be 15 %–25 % (depending on the product). In addition to these biases, the products exhibit random errors that can be 1.6 to 3 times as large. Most products show similar performance, although there are a few exceptions with either larger biases or larger random errors. The intercomparison of satellite products extends this analysis and provides spatial context to it. In particular, we show that aggregated satellite AOD agrees much better than the spatial coverage (often driven by cloud masks) within the 1°×1° grid cells. Up to ∼50 % of the difference between satellite AOD is attributed to cloud contamination. The diversity in AOD products shows clear spatial patterns and varies from 10 % (parts of the ocean) to 100 % (central Asia and Australia). More importantly, we show that the diversity may be used as an indication of AOD uncertainty, at least for the better performing products. This provides modellers with a global map of expected AOD uncertainty in satellite products, allows assessment of products away from AERONET sites, can provide guidance for future AERONET locations and offers suggestions for product improvements. We account for statistical and sampling noise in our analyses. Sampling noise, variations due to the evaluation of different subsets of the data, causes important changes in error metrics. The consequences of this noise term for product evaluation are discussed.
We have developed a Bayesian aerosol retrieval (BAR) algorithm for the retrieval of aerosol optical depth (AOD) over land from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). In the BAR ...algorithm, we simultaneously retrieve all dark land pixels in a granule, utilize spatial correlation models for the unknown aerosol parameters, use a statistical prior model for the surface reflectance, and take into account the uncertainties due to fixed aerosol models. The retrieved parameters are total AOD at 0.55 µm, fine-mode fraction (FMF), and surface reflectances at four different wavelengths (0.47, 0.55, 0.64, and 2.1 µm). The accuracy of the new algorithm is evaluated by comparing the AOD retrievals to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOD. The results show that the BAR significantly improves the accuracy of AOD retrievals over the operational Dark Target (DT) algorithm. A reduction of about 29 % in the AOD root mean square error and decrease of about 80 % in the median bias of AOD were found globally when the BAR was used instead of the DT algorithm. Furthermore, the fraction of AOD retrievals inside the ±(0.05+15%) expected error envelope increased from 55 to 76 %. In addition to retrieving the values of AOD, FMF, and surface reflectance, the BAR also gives pixel-level posterior uncertainty estimates for the retrieved parameters. The BAR algorithm always results in physical, non-negative AOD values, and the average computation time for a single granule was less than a minute on a modern personal computer.
Remote sensing of the atmospheric composition from current and future satellites, such as the Sentinel missions of the Copernicus programme, yields an unprecedented amount of data to monitor air ...quality, ozone, UV radiation and other climate variables. Hence, full exploitation of the growing wealth of information delivered by spaceborne observing systems requires addressing the technological challenges for developing new strategies and tools that are capable to deal with these huge data volumes. The H2020 AURORA (Advanced Ultraviolet Radiation and Ozone Retrieval for Applications) project investigated a novel approach for synergistic use of ozone profile measurements acquired at different frequencies (ultraviolet, visible, thermal infrared) by sensors onboard Geostationary Equatorial Orbit (GEO) and Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites in the framework of the Copernicus Sentinel-4 and Sentinel-5 missions. This paper outlines the main features of the technological infrastructure, designed and developed to support the AURORA data processing chain as a distributed data processing and describes in detail the key components of the infrastructure and the software prototype. The latter demonstrates the technical feasibility of the automatic execution of the full processing chain with simulated data. The Data Processing Chain (DPC) presented in this work thus replicates a processing system that, starting from the operational satellite retrievals, carries out their fusion and results in the assimilation of the fused products. These consist in ozone vertical profiles from which further modules of the chain deliver tropospheric ozone and UV radiation at the Earth’s surface. The conclusions highlight the relevance of this novel approach to the synergistic use of operational satellite data and underline that the infrastructure uses general-purpose technologies and is open for applications in different contexts.
AURORA (Advanced Ultraviolet Radiation and Ozone Retrieval for Applications) is a three-year project supported by the European Union in the frame of its H2020 Call (EO-2-2015) for “Stimulating wider ...research use of Copernicus Sentinel Data”. The project addresses key scientific issues relevant for synergistic exploitation of data acquired in different spectral ranges by different instruments on board the atmospheric Sentinels. A novel approach, based on the assimilation of geosynchronous equatorial orbit (GEO) and low Earth orbit (LEO) fused products by application of an innovative algorithm to Sentinel-4 (S-4) and Sentinel-5 (S-5) synthetic data, is adopted to assess the quality of the unique ozone vertical profile obtained in a context simulating the operational environment. The first priority is then attributed to the lower atmosphere with calculation of tropospheric columns and ultraviolet (UV) surface radiation from the resulting ozone vertical distribution. Here we provide details on the surface UV algorithm of AURORA. Both UV index (UVI) and UV-A irradiance are provided from synthetic satellite measurements, which in turn are based on atmospheric scenarios from MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) re-analysis. The UV algorithm is implemented in a software tool integrated in the technological infrastructure developed in the context of AURORA for the management of the synthetic data and for supporting the data processing. This was closely linked to the application-oriented activities of the project, aimed to improve the performance and functionality of a downstream application for personal UV dosimetry based on satellite data. The use of synthetic measurements from MERRA-2 gives us also a “ground truth”, against which to evaluate the performance of our UV model with varying inputs. In this study we both describe the UV algorithm itself and assess the influence that changes in ozone profiles, due to the fusion and assimilation, can cause in surface UV levels.
With the launch of the Sentinel-5 Precursor (S-5P, lifted-off on 13 October 2017), Sentinel-4 (S-4) and Sentinel-5 (S-5)(from 2021 and 2023 onwards, respectively) operational missions of the ESA/EU ...Copernicus program, a massive amount of atmospheric composition data with unprecedented quality will become available from geostationary (GEO) and low Earth orbit (LEO) observations. Enhanced observational capabilities are expected to foster deeper insight than ever before on key issues relevant for air quality, stratospheric ozone, solar radiation, and climate. A major potential strength of the Sentinel observations lies in the exploitation of complementary information that originates from simultaneous and independent satellite measurements of the same air mass. The core purpose of the AURORA (Advanced Ultraviolet Radiation and Ozone Retrieval for Applications) project is to investigate this exploitation from a novel approach for merging data acquired in different spectral regions from on board the GEO and LEO platforms. A data processing chain is implemented and tested on synthetic observations. A new data algorithm combines the ultraviolet, visible and thermal infrared ozone products into S-4 and S-5(P) fused profiles. These fused products are then ingested into state-of-the-art data assimilation systems to obtain a unique ozone profile in analyses and forecasts mode. A comparative evaluation and validation of fused products assimilation versus the assimilation of the operational products will seek to demonstrate the improvements achieved by the proposed approach. This contribution provides a first general overview of the project, and discusses both the challenges of developing a technological infrastructure for implementing the AURORA concept, and the potential for applications of AURORA derived products, such as tropospheric ozone and UV surface radiation, in sectors such as air quality monitoring and health.
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