COVID-19 vaccine coverage in low- and middle-income countries continues to be challenging. As supplies increase, coverage is increasingly becoming determined by rollout capacity.
We developed a ...deterministic compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission to explore how age-, risk-, and dose-specific vaccine prioritisation strategies can minimise severe outcomes of COVID-19 in Sierra Leone.
Prioritising booster doses to older adults and adults with comorbidities could reduce the incidence of severe disease by 23% and deaths by 34% compared to the use of these doses as primary doses for all adults. Providing a booster dose to pregnant women who present to antenatal care could prevent 38% of neonatal deaths associated with COVID-19 infection during pregnancy. The vaccination of children is not justified unless there is sufficient supply to not affect doses delivered to adults.
Our paper supports current WHO SAGE vaccine prioritisation guidelines (released January 2022). Individuals who are at the highest risk of developing severe outcomes should be prioritised, and opportunistic vaccination strategies considered in settings with limited rollout capacity.
Little is understood of Ebola virus disease (EVD) transmission dynamics and community compliance with control measures over time. Understanding these interactions is essential if interventions are to ...be effective in future outbreaks. We conducted a mixed-methods study to explore these factors in a rural village that experienced sustained EVD transmission in Kailahun District, Sierra Leone.
We reconstructed transmission dynamics using a cross-sectional survey conducted in April 2015, and cross-referenced our results with surveillance, burial, and Ebola Management Centre (EMC) data. Factors associated with EVD transmission were assessed with Cox proportional hazards regression. Following the survey, qualitative semi-structured interviews explored views of community informants and households.
All households (n = 240; 1161 individuals) participated in the survey. 29 of 31 EVD probable/confirmed cases died (93·5% case fatality rate); six deaths (20·6%) had been missed by other surveillance systems. Transmission over five generations lasted 16 weeks. Although most households had ≤5 members there was a significant increase in risk of Ebola in households with > 5 members. Risk of EVD was also associated with older age. Cases were spatially clustered; all occurred in 15 households. EVD transmission was better understood when the community experience started to concord with public health messages being given. Perceptions of contact tracing changed from invading privacy and selling people to ensuring community safety. Burials in plastic bags, without female attendants or prayer, were perceived as dishonourable. Further reasons for low compliance were low EMC survival rates, family perceptions of a moral duty to provide care to relatives, poor communication with the EMC, and loss of livelihoods due to quarantine. Compliance with response measures increased only after the second generation, coinciding with the implementation of restrictive by-laws, return of the first survivor, reduced contact with dead bodies, and admission of patients to the EMC.
Transmission occurred primarily in a few large households, with prolonged transmission and a high death toll. Return of a survivor to the village and more effective implementation of control strategies coincided with increased compliance to control measures, with few subsequent cases. We propose key recommendations for management of EVD outbreaks based on this experience.
Mobile phones are gradually becoming an integral part of healthcare services worldwide. We assessed the association between Aponjon mobile phone based messaging services and practices regarding ...childbirth and care of mother and neonates in selected areas in Bangladesh.
In early 2014, 476 subscriber mothers whose last born child's age was between 3 and 18 months, were recruited to the study by Dnet from selected areas of Bangladesh. One group of mothers received the early warning messages from Aponjon during pregnancy (exposed; n = 210) while the other group of new mothers did not receive the messages during pregnancy as they had enrolled in the service after childbirth (non-exposed; n = 266). We undertook regression analyses to investigate the relationship between timing of exposure to Aponjon messages and socio-economic factors and outcomes of safe delivery, immediate breastfeeding post birth, delayed bathing of the neonate, and number of postnatal care (PNC) visits.
Women reported delivering babies at home without a skilled birth attendant (SBA) (n = 58, 12%), at home with SBA (n = 111, 23%) and at health facilities (n = 307, 65%). Most (n = 443, 93%) women breastfed babies immediately post birth. Babies were bathed after 72 h (n = 294, 62%), between 48 and 72 (n = 100, 21%) and between 0 and 47 (n = 80, 17%) hours after birth. PNC frequencies were reported as none (n = 273, 57%), 1 (n = 79, 17%), 2 (n = 54, 11%), 3 (n = 34, 7%) and 4 (n = 36, 8%). There was no significant association between exposure to Aponjon messages during pregnancy and presence of a SBA at birth, breastfeeding practices, and postnatal care visits, although delayed bathing up to 48 h was significant at the 10% but not 5% level (RRR 1.7; 95% CI 0.93-3.0; p = 0.083). Women with higher education, from higher income, older in age, with birth order 1 or 2 were more likely to birth at health facilities. Facility based delivery was an independent factor for delayed bathing and having postnatal care visits.
Low cost mobile phone messages may have the potential to positively influence maternal and child healthcare behaviours, such as delayed timing of first bath, in resource-poor settings. Further studies are needed, with adequate sample size to detect significant change.
Health system performance indicators are widely used to assess primary healthcare (PHC) performance. Despite the numerous tools and some convergence on indicator criteria, there is not a clear ...understanding of the common features of indicator selection processes. We aimed to review the literature to identify papers that document indicator selection processes for health system performance indicators in PHC.
We searched the online databases Scopus, Medline, and CINAHL, as well as the grey literature, without time restrictions, initially on July 31, 2019 followed by an update November 13, 2020. Empirical studies or reports were included if they described the selection of health system performance indicators or frameworks, that included PHC indicators. A combination of the process focussed research question and qualitative analysis meant a quality appraisal tool or assessment of bias could not meaningfully be applied to assess individual studies. We undertook an inductive analysis based on potential indicator selection processes criteria, drawn from health system performance indicator appraisal tools reported in the literature.
We identified 16 503 records of which 28 were included in the review. Most studies used a descriptive case study design. We found no consistent variations between indicator selection processes of health systems of high income and low- or lower-middle income countries. Identified common features of selection processes for indicators in PHC include literature review or adaption of an existing framework as an initial step; a consensus building process with stakeholders; structuring indicators into categories; and indicator criteria focusing on validity and feasibility. The evidence around field testing with utility and consideration of reporting burden was less clear.
Our findings highlight several characteristics of health system indicator selection processes. These features provide the groundwork to better understand how to value indicator selection processes in PHC.
Concerns about false-positive HIV results led to a review of testing procedures used in a Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) HIV programme in Bukavu, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. In addition to ...the WHO HIV rapid diagnostic test algorithm (RDT) (two positive RDTs alone for HIV diagnosis) used in voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) sites we evaluated in situ a practical field-based confirmation test against western blot WB. In addition, we aimed to determine the false-positive rate of the WHO two-test algorithm compared with our adapted protocol including confirmation testing, and whether weakly reactive compared with strongly reactive rapid test results were more likely to be false positives.
2864 clients presenting to MSF VCT centres in Bukavu during January to May 2006 were tested using Determine HIV-1/2 and UniGold HIV rapid tests in parallel by nurse counsellors. Plasma samples on 229 clients confirmed as double RDT positive by laboratory retesting were further tested using both WB and the Orgenics Immunocomb Combfirm HIV confirmation test (OIC-HIV). Of these, 24 samples were negative or indeterminate by WB representing a false-positive rate of the WHO two-test algorithm of 10.5% (95%CI 6.6-15.2). 17 of the 229 samples were weakly positive on rapid testing and all were negative or indeterminate by WB. The false-positive rate fell to 3.3% (95%CI 1.3-6.7) when only strong-positive rapid test results were considered. Agreement between OIC-HIV and WB was 99.1% (95%CI 96.9-99.9%) with no false OIC-HIV positives if stringent criteria for positive OIC-HIV diagnoses were used.
The WHO HIV two-test diagnostic algorithm produced an unacceptably high level of false-positive diagnoses in our setting, especially if results were weakly positive. The most probable causes of the false-positive results were serological cross-reactivity or non-specific immune reactivity. Our findings show that the OIC-HIV confirmation test is practical and effective in field contexts. We propose that all double-positive HIV RDT samples should undergo further testing to confirm HIV seropositivity until the accuracy of the RDT testing algorithm has been established at programme level.
60% of women in Papua New Guinea (PNG) give birth unsupervised and outside of a health facility, contributing to high national maternal and perinatal mortality rates. We evaluated a practical, ...hospital-based on-the-job training program implemented by local health authorities in PNG between 2013 and 2019 aimed at addressing this challenge by upskilling community health workers (CHWs) to provide quality maternal and newborn care in rural health facilities.
Two provinces, the Eastern Highlands and Simbu Provinces, were included in the study. In the Eastern Highlands Province, a baseline and end point skills assessment and post-training interviews 12 months after completion of the 2018 training were used to evaluate impacts on CHW knowledge, skills, and self-reported satisfaction with training. Quality and timeliness of referrals was assessed through data from the Eastern Highlands Province referral hospital registers. In Simbu Province, impacts of training on facility births, stillbirths and referrals were evaluated pre- and post-training retrospectively using routine health facility reporting data from 2012 to 2019, and negative binomial regression analysis adjusted for potential confounders and correlation of outcomes within facilities.
The average knowledge score increased significantly, from 69.8% (95% CI:66.3-73.2%) at baseline, to 87.8% (95% CI:82.9-92.6%) following training for the 8 CHWs participating in Eastern Highlands Province training. CHWs reported increased confidence in their skills and ability to use referral networks. There were significant increases in referrals to the Eastern Highlands provincial hospital arriving in the second stage of labour but no significant difference in the 5 min Apgar score for children, pre and post training. Data on 11,345 births in participating facilities in Simbu Province showed that the number of births in participating rural health facilities more than doubled compared to prior to training, with the impact increasing over time after training (0-12 months after training: IRR 1.59, 95% CI: 1.04-2.44, p-value 0.033, > 12 months after training: IRR 2.46, 95% CI:1.37-4.41, p-value 0.003). There was no significant change in stillbirth or referral rates.
Our findings showed positive impacts of the upskilling program on CHW knowledge and practice of participants, facility births rates, and appropriateness of referrals, demonstrating its promise as a feasible intervention to improve uptake of maternal and newborn care services in rural and remote, low-resource settings within the resourcing available to local authorities. Larger-scale evaluations of a size adequately powered to ascertain impact of the intervention on stillbirth rates are warranted.
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) community transmission was eliminated in Australia from 1/11/2020 to 30/6/2021, allowing evaluation of surveillance system performance in ...detecting novel outbreaks, including against variants of concern (VoCs). This paper aims to define system requirements for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance under future transmission and response scenarios, based on surveillance system performance to date.
This study described and evaluated surveillance systems and epidemiological characteristics of novel outbreaks based on publicly available data, and assessed surveillance system sensitivity and timeliness in outbreak detection. These findings were integrated with analysis of other critical COVID-19 public health measures to establish future COVID-19 management requirements.
Twenty-five epidemiologically distinct outbreaks and five distinct clusters were identified in the study period, all linked through genomic sequencing to novel introductions from international travellers. Seventy percent (21/30) were detected through community testing of people with acute respiratory illness, and 30% (9/30) through quarantine screening. On average, 2.07% of the State population was tested in the week preceding detection for those identified through community surveillance. From 17/30 with publicly available data, the average time from seeding to detection was 4.9 days. One outbreak was preceded by unexpected positive wastewater results. Twenty of the 24 outbreaks in 2021 had publicly available sequencing data, all of which identified VoCs. A surveillance strategy for future VoCs similar to that used for detecting SARS-CoV-2 would require a 100-1000-fold increase in genomic sequencing capacity compared to the study period. Other essential requirements are maintaining outbreak response capacity and developing capacity to rapidly engineer, manufacture, and distribute variant vaccines at scale.
Australia's surveillance systems performed well in detecting novel introduction of SARS-CoV-2 while community transmission was eliminated; introductions were infrequent and case numbers were low. Detection relied on quarantine screening and community surveillance in symptomatic members of the general population, supported by comprehensive genomic sequencing. Once vaccine coverage is maximised, future COVID-19 control should shift to detection of SARS-CoV-2 VoCs, requiring maintenance of surveillance systems and testing all international arrivals, alongside greatly increased genomic sequencing capacity. Effective government support of localised public health response mechanisms and engagement of all sectors of the community is crucial to current and future COVID-19 management.
Violence against women (VAW) is a major problem worldwide, with one in three women experiencing violence in their lifetime. While interventions to prevent violence (primary prevention) are extremely ...important, they can take many years. This review focuses on secondary and tertiary prevention interventions that address the needs of survivors of violence and aim to prevent recurrence. This review also focuses on studies taking place in low and low-middle income countries, where rates of VAW are highest.
Searches of peer-reviewed and grey literature took place from March-June 2016 through databases (Embase, CINAHL, WHO Global Index Medicus, Medline, PsychINFO, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts and Sociological Abstracts) and by consulting experts in the field. Only primary research was eligible for inclusion and studies had to focus on secondary or tertiary prevention for survivors of VAW in low or low-middle income countries. All study designs were eligible, as long as the study examined client-related outcome measures (e.g., incidence of violence, health outcomes or client satisfaction). Data were extracted and quality of the studies was assessed using the Effective Public Health Practice Project Quality Assessment Tool for Quantitative Studies and a qualitative quality assessment tool developed by Mays and Pope. Due to the low number of results and heterogeneity of the study populations and outcomes, a narrative synthesis was conducted and evidence was summarized.
One thousand two hundred fifteen studies were identified through the search strategy and 22 of these met the eligibility criteria. Overall, the evidence for interventions is weak and study limitations prevent definitive conclusions on what works. There is some evidence that interventions targeting alcohol use, both among perpetrators and survivors, may be effective at reducing VAW through secondary prevention, and that psychotherapy might be effective for survivors of non-partner sexual violence through tertiary prevention. Finally, some evidence exists for crisis centres increasing survivors' access to services (through both secondary and tertiary prevention), however, assessment of their impact on future VAW are needed.
Though some interventions for survivors of VAW have shown evidence of effectiveness, further research is needed, especially high-quality studies with quantitative outcome data.
Tuberculosis (TB) is a growing problem worldwide, especially with the emergence and high prevalence of multidrug-resistant strains. We develop a metapopulation model for TB spread, which is ...particularly suited to investigating transmission between areas of high and low prevalence. A case study of cross-border transmission in the Torres Strait region of Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) is considered and a sensitivity analysis is conducted. We find that only 6 of the 50 parameters analysed are important to the cumulative number of clinically active TB patients in the entire region. Of these, only the detection rate in PNG is found to be an important intervention parameter. We therefore give insight into the extent the area with the high burden of TB (PNG in the case study) is dominating the TB dynamics of the entire region. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis results give insight into the data that most important to collect and refine, which is found to be data relating to the PNG parameters.
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