A fundamental component of the European natural disaster management policy is the detection of potential flood-prone areas, which is directly connected to the European Directive (2007/60). This study ...presents a framework for mapping potential flooding areas incorporating geographic information systems (GIS), fuzzy logic and clustering techniques, and multi-criteria evaluation methods. Factors are divided in different groups which do not have the same level of trade off. These groups are related to geophysical, morphological, climatological/meteorological and hydrological characteristics of the basin as well as to anthropogenic land use. GIS and numerical simulation are used for geographic data acquisition and processing. The selected factor maps are considered in order to estimate the spatial distribution of the potential flood prone areas. Using these maps, the study area is classified into five categories of flood vulnerable areas. The Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) techniques consist of the crisp and fuzzy analytical hierarchy processes (AHP) and are enhanced with different standardization methods. The classification is based on different clustering techniques and it is applied in two approaches. In the first approach, all criteria are normalized before the MCA process and then, the clustering techniques are applied to derive the final flood prone area maps. In the second approach, the criteria are clustered before and after the MCA process for the potential flood prone area mapping. The methodology is demonstrated in Xerias River watershed, Thessaly region, Greece. Xerias River floodplain was repeatedly flooded in the last few years. These floods had major impacts on agricultural areas, transportation networks and infrastructure. Historical flood inundation data has been used for the validation of the methodology. Results show that multiple MCA techniques should be taken into account in initial low-cost detection surveys of flood-prone areas and/or in preliminary analysis of flood hazard mapping.
An innovative approach in the investigation of complex landscapes for hydraulic modelling applications is the use of terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) that can lead to a high-resolution digital ...elevation model (DEM). Another notable factor in flood modelling is the selection of the hydrodynamic model (1D, 2D and 1D/2D), especially in complex riverine topographies, that can influence the accuracy of flood inundation area and mapping. This paper uses different types of hydraulic–hydrodynamic modelling approaches and several types of river and riparian area spatial resolution for the implementation of a sensitivity analysis for floodplain mapping and flood inundation modelling process at ungauged watersheds. Four data sets have been used for the construction of the river and riparian areas: processed and unprocessed TLS data, topographic land survey data and typical digitized contours from 1:5000-scale topographic maps. Modelling approaches combinations consist of: one-dimensional hydraulic models (HEC-RAS, MIKE 11), two-dimensional hydraulic models (MIKE 21, MIKE 21 FM) and combinations of coupled hydraulic models (MIKE 11/MIKE 21) within the MIKE FLOOD platform. Historical flood records and estimated flooded area derived from an observed extreme flash-flood event have been used in the validation process using 2 × 2 contingency tables. Flood inundation maps have been generated for each modelling approach and landscape configuration at the lower part of Xerias River reach at Volos, Greece, and compared for assessing the sensitivity of input data and model structure uncertainty. Results provided from contingency table analysis indicate the sensitivity of floodplain modelling on the DEM spatial resolution and the hydraulic modelling approach.
The perception that hydrometeorological processes are non stationary on timescales that are applicable to extreme value analysis is recently well documented due to natural climate variability or ...human intervention. In this study the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is used to assess nonstationarity in annual maximum daily rainfall time series for selected meteorological stations in Greece and Cyprus. The GEV distribution parameters are specified as functions of time-varying covariates and estimated using the conditional density network (CDN) as proposed by Cannon (
2010
). The CDN is a probabilistic extension of the multilayer perceptron neural network. If one of the covariates is dependent on time, then the GEV-CDN model could perform non stationary extreme value analysis. Model parameters are estimated via the generalized maximum likelihood (GML) approach using the quasi-Newton BFGS optimization algorithm, and the appropriate GEV-CDN model architecture for a selected meteorological station is selected by fitting increasingly complicated models and choosing the one that minimizes the Akaike information criterion with small sample size correction or the Bayesian information criterion. For each meteorological station in Greece and Cyprus different formulations are tested with combinational cases of stationary and non stationary parameters of the GEV distribution, linear and nonlinear architecture of the CDN and combinations of the input climatic covariates. Climatic covariates examined in this study are the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which describes atmospheric circulation in the eastern tropical Pacific related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index that varies on an interdecadal rather than inter annual time scale and atmospheric circulation patterns as expressed by the Mediterranean Oscillation Index (MOI) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices.
Rainfall-runoff modelling procedures for ungauged and poorly gauged watersheds are developed in this study. A well-established hydrological model, the University of British Columbia (UBC) watershed ...model, is selected and applied in five different river basins located in Canada, Cyprus, and Pakistan. Catchments from cold, temperate, continental, and semiarid climate zones are included to demonstrate the procedures developed. Two methodologies for streamflow modelling are proposed and analysed. The first method uses the UBC watershed model with a universal set of parameters for water allocation and flow routing, and precipitation gradients estimated from the available annual precipitation data as well as from regional information on the distribution of orographic precipitation. This method is proposed for watersheds without streamflow gauge data and limited meteorological station data. The second hybrid method proposes the coupling of UBC watershed model with artificial neural networks (ANNs) and is intended for use in poorly gauged watersheds which have limited streamflow measurements. The two proposed methods have been applied to five mountainous watersheds with largely varying climatic, physiographic, and hydrological characteristics. The evaluation of the applied methods is based on the combination of graphical results, statistical evaluation metrics, and normalized goodness-of-fit statistics. The results show that the first method satisfactorily simulates the observed hydrograph assuming that the basins are ungauged. When limited streamflow measurements are available, the coupling of ANNs with the regional, non-calibrated UBC flow model components is considered a successful alternative method to the conventional calibration of a hydrological model based on the evaluation criteria employed for streamflow modelling and flood frequency estimation.
Statistical and trend analysis of surface water quality and runoff data from Pinios River have been performed to provide a framework for sustainable water resources management. The trend analysis was ...performed using the non-parametric Spearman correlation and tested for statistical significance using the Student's t-test. Monthly runoff data from five stations and surface water quality data from six stations on Pinios River have been analyzed. Apart from the statistical and trend analyses, the quality of the Pinios River was assessed for drinking and other urban uses and for irrigation, according to the national, European and international water quality standards. The important information has been gained from this analysis, especially on the identification of significant temporal and spatial trends of water quality parameters and the status of river water quality according to the water quality standards. The analysis indicated that the quality of the river water is, on average fair, and the river water could be used with caution for irrigation purposes.
Hydro-economic models are valuable tools that can be used in irrigated agriculture in order to improve the understanding of the status quo of water resources, the role of water in agriculture, and ...the system behavior under changing conditions. The present paper attempts to give insights on how different water management objectives and data availability may influence the specification/application of hydro-economic modeling, as well as the reliability and interpretation of their results. A Greek rural watershed located in Central Greece (Region of Thessaly) is used as a case study application. A common hydro-economic framework for sustainable water resources management in irrigated agriculture is examined, aiming to provide a simple and understandable tool for policymakers. In this framework two hydro-economic models (HEMs) were developed to address challenges regarding data limitations, spatial analysis, and scenario-based problems (e.g. agri-economic scenarios, water policy scenarios, environmental scenarios, etc.). A set of selection criteria was then used to qualitatively compare these two models, based on their advantages and disadvantages. The results of this analysis indicate that HEMs’ development must be quite flexible about their settings and must take into consideration the desired accuracy level that is likely to satisfy their main purpose/goal. The optimal approach is the one that can achieve a balance between simplicity, flexibility, accuracy and robustness.
Abstract The purpose of this study is to investigate how the use of flavored e-cigarettes varies between youth (12–17 years old), young adults (18–29 years old), and older adults (30 + years old). ...Cross-sectional surveys of school-going youth ( n = 3907) and young adult college students ( n = 5482) in Texas, and young adults and older adults ( n = 6051) nationwide were administered in 2014–2015. Proportions and 95% confidence intervals were used to describe the percentage of e-cigarette use at initiation and in the past 30 days that was flavored, among current e-cigarette users. Chi-square tests were applied to examine differences by combustible tobacco product use and demographic factors. Most e-cigarette users said their first and “usual” e-cigarettes were flavored. At initiation, the majority of Texas school-going youth (98%), Texas young adult college students (95%), and young adults (71.2%) nationwide said their first e-cigarettes were flavored to taste like something other than tobacco, compared to 44.1% of older adults nationwide. Fruit and candy flavors predominated for all groups; and, for youth, flavors were an especially salient reason to use e-cigarettes. Among adults, the use of tobacco flavor at initiation was common among dual users (e-cigarettes + combustible tobacco), while other flavors were more common among former cigarette smokers (P = 0.03). Restricting the range of e-cigarette flavors (e.g., eliminating sweet flavors, like fruit and candy) may benefit youth and young adult prevention efforts. However, it is unclear what impact this change would have on adult smoking cessation.
This paper demonstrates a climate change impact study on the hydrological process of a data-scarce Greek watershed. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and, particularly, the ArcSWAT interface ...was used for the watershed simulation. The ERA-Interim reanalysis climate data regarding the period from 1981 to 2000 were used for the historical simulation of the watershed. The ArcSWAT simulated data were evaluated against the observed discharge data for the periods with the available data. The statistical evaluation confirmed the ArcSWAT model’s capability in simulating the hydrological process of the research area. The climate change consequences on the hydrological components of the research area until the end of the twenty-first century were estimated by driving the ArcSWAT model with the Regional Climate Model Version 4 (RegCM4) forcing data under the extreme RCP 8.5 scenario, namely the simulations of the MPI and HadGEM2 general circulation models (GCMs), resulted from the spatio-temporal kriging approach. Based on the results, the increase in the minimum and the maximum temperature contributed to an increase in the actual evapotranspiration and the surface runoff. In contrast, the temperature increase caused a reduction in the infiltration. An increase (reduction) in the precipitation led to an increase (reduction) in the hydrological components. The climate change impact analysis of the Greek watershed showed that not only the precipitation changes but the temperature changes as well directly influence the water balance components of the research area and particularly the infiltration.
Helminth infections impact the health of hundreds of millions of persons globally and also cause important economic losses in livestock farming. Methodological limitations as well as the low ...attention given to the study of helminths have impacted biological research and, thus, the procurement of accurate diagnosis and effective treatments. Understanding the biology of helminths using genomic and proteomic approaches could contribute to advances in understanding host-helminth interactions and lead to new vaccines, drugs and diagnostics. Despite the significant advances in genomics in the last decade, the lack of methodological adaptation of current transgenesis techniques has hampered the progression of post-genomic research in helminthology. However, the application of new techniques, such as CRISPR, to the study of trematodes and nematodes has opened new avenues for genome editing-powered functional genomics for these pathogens. This review summarises the historical advances in functional genomics in parasitic helminths and highlights pending limitations that will need to be overcome to deploy transgenesis tools.
Abstract
Groundwater depletion poses a major threat to global groundwater resources with increasing trends due to natural and anthropogenic activities. This study presents a surface-groundwater ...framework for water resources modelling of ill-posed problems in hydrogeologically data-scarce areas. The proposed framework is based on the application of a conceptual water balance model and composed of surface hydrological (UTHBAL) and groundwater flow simulation with the integration of a Newton formulation of the MODFLOW-2005 code (MODFLOW-NWT) and PEST suite modules. The groundwater simulation includes a preprocessor tool for automated calibration and a post-processor tool for automated validation. The methodology was applied to a rural region of Central Greece, Lake Karla Basin, which is degraded due to groundwater resources overexploitation to cover irrigation water demands. The aquifer is modelled focusing on a precise simulation–validation procedure of the conceptual model. The groundwater model was calibrated with the calibration preprocessor tool for spatially distributed hydraulic conductivity with the pilot points method. The calibration process achieved satisfactory results as validated by the post-process analysis of observed and simulated water levels. The findings for the groundwater budget indicate that the groundwater system is still under intense pressure even though farming activity in recent years has turned to less water-intensive crops.
HIGHLIGHT
My research deals with the pilot points method on groundwater modelling in an area with scarce hydrogeologic data.
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