Given the high incidence of melanoma in Australia alongside high mortality with later stage disease, we investigated the populations and locations most at risk, to optimise public health activities ...in areas where intervention is most needed. This study examines trends and identifies significant prognostic factors and potential disparities in incidence, mortality and survival between population groups in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.
The analysis includes data from the population-based cancer registries of the three states over a twenty-year period (1997–2016). Age-standardized and age-specific incidence rates were calculated, and long-term trends analysed using Joinpoint Regression. Five-year relative survival estimates for the study population were calculated using the cohort method and multivariable flexible parametric survival models were applied for each jurisdiction to calculate adjusted excess mortality hazard ratios for the key characteristics.
There were more males with melanoma than females in all the three states. Over 60% of the cases occurred in the 40–74 years age group. Most melanomas had a Breslow thickness less than or equal to 1.0 mm. For males, Victoria and Queensland had a statistically significant increasing trend whereas in South Australia there was a decreasing trend. For females, the incidence rate trend was stable in Victoria but significantly decreasing in South Australia. In Queensland there was an increasing and statistically significant trend from 2006 to 2016. Across all three states there was a reducing incidence rate in the youngest cohort, stabilizing incidence in the 40–59-year-old age group, and increasing in the oldest cohorts. Five-year relative survival decreased with increasing age and with Breslow thickness across all three jurisdictions. Males had between 43%− 46% excess mortality compared to females in all the three states. There was higher risk with increasing age and Breslow thickness, with the largest risk among the 75 + age group and those with a Breslow thickness of > 4 mm.
It is the first time that data from these three registries has been analysed together in a uniform way, covering more than half of the Australian population. This study compares the epidemiology of melanoma across three states and provides a better understanding of trends and factors affecting outcome for Australians with melanoma. While there has been some improvement in aspects of incidence and mortality, this has not been evenly achieved across Australia.
•Melanoma incidence in Australia and New Zealand remains one of the highest in the world in both males and females.•It is the first time that data from the three state cancer registries has been analysed together in a uniform way, covering more than half of the Australian population.•It contributes new information about descriptive patterns and trends of melanoma and survivorship in Australia.•This research is important for primary prevention initiatives and targeted melanoma awareness campaigns.
Differences in cancer survival by sex Afshar, Nina; English, Dallas R.; Thursfield, Vicky ...
Cancer causes & control,
11/2018, Volume:
29, Issue:
11
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Purpose
Few large-scale studies have investigated sex differences in cancer survival and little is known about their temporal and age-related patterns.
Methods
We used cancer registry data for first ...primary cancers diagnosed between 1982 and 2015 in Victoria, Australia. Cases were followed until the end of 2015 through linkage to death registries. Differences in survival were assessed for 25 cancers using the Pohar-Perme estimator of net survival and the excess mortality rate ratio (EMRR) adjusting for age and year of diagnosis.
Results
Five-year net survival for all cancers combined was lower for men (47.1%; 95% CI 46.9–47.4) than women (52.0%; 95% CI 51.7–52.3); EMRR 1.13 (95% CI 1.12–1.14;
p
< 0.001). A survival disadvantage for men was observed for 11 cancers: head and neck, esophagus, colorectum, pancreas, lung, bone, melanoma, mesothelioma, kidney, thyroid, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. In contrast, women had lower survival from cancers of the bladder, renal pelvis, and ureter. For the majority of cancers with survival differences, the EMRR decreased with increasing age at diagnosis; for colorectal, esophageal, and kidney cancer, the EMRR increased with time since diagnosis.
Conclusion
Identifying the underlying reasons behind sex differences in cancer survival is necessary to address inequalities, which may improve outcomes for men and women.
Background
Colorectal cancer is the third most commonly diagnosed malignancy in Australia. Up to a third of patients who have undergone surgery with curative intent for colorectal cancer will have a ...recurrence of disease leading to significant morbidity and mortality. Regional Australians have disproportionately worse outcomes.
Aim
To identify factors associated with recurrence in colorectal cancer patients treated at a regional Australian hospital.
Methods
This study is a retrospective cohort analysis. Consecutive patients who have undergone curative resection at a regional public and private hospital by three surgeons from a single surgical practice for either rectal cancer or colon cancer were included. Prognostic indicators of recurrence were examined via both univariate and multivariate time‐to‐event analyses.
Results
Three hundred nine patients were included with 43 recurrences. Thirty presented with distant metastases, seven presented with locoregional recurrence and six presented with locoregional as well as distant recurrence. In univariable analysis, higher rates of recurrence were associated with tumour type, higher AJCC summary stage, higher preoperative levels of CA19‐9, perineural invasion, lymphovascular invasion, <12 nodes examined, positive lymph nodes and emergency surgery status. On multivariable analysis recurrence remained associated with tumours with a mucinous and/or signet cell component, positive nodes and <12 lymph nodes examined.
Conclusion
A combination of patient and treatment factors are relevant in determining the risk of recurrence for stage I–III colorectal cancer. This study emphasises the importance of histology in determining risk, particularly the number of nodes examined. CEA 19–9 may also be a useful pre‐operative predictor of recurrence.
Risk factors for recurrence ‐ univariate analysis.
Length of hospital stay (LOS) is considered a vital component for successful colorectal surgery treatment. Evidence of an association between hospital surgery volume and LOS has been mixed. Data ...modelling techniques may give inconsistent results that adversely impact conclusions. This study applied techniques to overcome possible modelling drawbacks.
An additive quantile regression model formulated to isolate hospital contextual effects was applied to every colorectal surgery for cancer conducted in Victoria, Australia, between 2005 and 2015, involving 28,343 admissions in 90 Victorian hospitals. The model compared hospitals’ operational efficiencies regarding LOS.
Hospital LOS operational efficiencies for colorectal cancer surgery varied markedly between the 90 hospitals and were independent of volume. This result was adjusted for pertinent patient and hospital characteristics.
No evidence was found that higher annual surgery volume was associated with lower LOS for patients undergoing colorectal cancer surgery. Our model showed strong evidence that differences in LOS efficiency between hospitals was driven by hospital contextual effects that were not predicted by provider volume. Further study is required to elucidate these inherent differences between hospitals.
Our model indicated improved efficiency would benefit the patient and medical system by lowering LOS and reducing expenditure by more than $3 million per year.
Women diagnosed with melanoma have better survival than men, but little is known about potential intervention targets to reduce this survival gap by sex. We conducted a population-based study using ...Victorian Cancer Registry data including 5833 women and 6780 men aged 15 to 70 years when diagnosed with first primary melanoma between 2007 and 2015. Deaths to the end of 2020 were identified through linkage to the Victorian and national death registries. We estimated the effect of age at diagnosis, tumour thickness and tumour site on reducing the melanoma-specific survival gap by sex (ie, interventional indirect effects IIEs) on risk difference (RD) scale. Compared to women, there were 211 (95% CI: 145-278) additional deaths per 10 000 in men within 5 years following diagnosis. We estimated that 44% of this gap would be reduced by a hypothetical intervention shifting the distribution of melanoma thickness in men to be the same as that observed for women (IIE
RD 93 95% CI: 75-118 per 10 000) and 20% by an intervention on tumour site (head and neck/trunk vs upper limb/lower limb; IIE
RD 42 95% CI: 15-72 per 10 000), while an intervention on age at diagnosis would have a negligible effect. Tumour thickness, tumour site and age at diagnosis mediated 65% of the effect of sex on 5-year melanoma survival in Victoria. Of these factors, tumour thickness had the most considerable mediating effect, suggesting that effective promotion of earlier detection of melanoma in men could potentially nearly halve the gap in melanoma-specific survival by sex.
Greater understanding of international cancer survival differences is needed. We aimed to identify predictors and consequences of cancer diagnosis through emergency presentation in different ...international jurisdictions in six high-income countries.
Using a federated analysis model, in this cross-sectional population-based study, we analysed cancer registration and linked hospital admissions data from 14 jurisdictions in six countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK), including patients with primary diagnosis of invasive oesophageal, stomach, colon, rectal, liver, pancreatic, lung, or ovarian cancer during study periods from Jan 1, 2012, to Dec 31, 2017. Data were collected on cancer site, age group, sex, year of diagnosis, and stage at diagnosis. Emergency presentation was defined as diagnosis of cancer within 30 days after an emergency hospital admission. Using logistic regression, we examined variables associated with emergency presentation and associations between emergency presentation and short-term mortality. We meta-analysed estimates across jurisdictions and explored jurisdiction-level associations between cancer survival and the percentage of patients diagnosed as emergencies.
In 857 068 patients across 14 jurisdictions, considering all of the eight cancer sites together, the percentage of diagnoses through emergency presentation ranged from 24·0% (9165 of 38 212 patients) to 42·5% (12 238 of 28 794 patients). There was consistently large variation in the percentage of emergency presentations by cancer site across jurisdictions. Pancreatic cancer diagnoses had the highest percentage of emergency presentations on average overall (46·1% 30 972 of 67 173 patients), with the jurisdictional range being 34·1% (1083 of 3172 patients) to 60·4% (1317 of 2182 patients). Rectal cancer had the lowest percentage of emergency presentations on average overall (12·1% 10 051 of 83 325 patients), with a jurisdictional range of 9·1% (403 of 4438 patients) to 19·8% (643 of 3247 patients). Across the jurisdictions, older age (ie, 75–84 years and 85 years or older, compared with younger patients) and advanced stage at diagnosis compared with non-advanced stage were consistently associated with increased emergency presentation risk, with the percentage of emergency presentations being highest in the oldest age group (85 years or older) for 110 (98%) of 112 jurisdiction-cancer site strata, and in the most advanced (distant spread) stage category for 98 (97%) of 101 jurisdiction-cancer site strata with available information. Across the jurisdictions, and despite heterogeneity in association size (I2=93%), emergency presenters consistently had substantially greater risk of 12-month mortality than non-emergency presenters (odds ratio >1·9 for 112 100% of 112 jurisdiction-cancer site strata, with the minimum lower bound of the related 95% CIs being 1·26). There were negative associations between jurisdiction-level percentage of emergency presentations and jurisdiction-level 1-year survival for colon, stomach, lung, liver, pancreatic, and ovarian cancer, with a 10% increase in percentage of emergency presentations in a jurisdiction being associated with a decrease in 1-year net survival of between 2·5% (95% CI 0·28–4·7) and 7·0% (1·2–13·0).
Internationally, notable proportions of patients with cancer are diagnosed through emergency presentation. Specific types of cancer, older age, and advanced stage at diagnosis are consistently associated with an increased risk of emergency presentation, which strongly predicts worse prognosis and probably contributes to international differences in cancer survival. Monitoring emergency presentations, and identifying and acting on contributing behavioural and health-care factors, is a global priority for cancer control.
Canadian Partnership Against Cancer; Cancer Council Victoria; Cancer Institute New South Wales; Cancer Research UK; Danish Cancer Society; National Cancer Registry Ireland; The Cancer Society of New Zealand; National Health Service England; Norwegian Cancer Society; Public Health Agency Northern Ireland, on behalf of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry; the Scottish Government; Western Australia Department of Health; and Wales Cancer Network.
Purpose Phosphatidylinositol-4, 5-bisphosphate 3-kinase catalytic subunit alpha ( PIK3CA) mutations are frequently observed in primary breast cancer. We evaluated their prognostic relevance by ...performing a pooled analysis of individual patient data. Patients and Methods Associations between PIK3CA status and clinicopathologic characteristics were tested by applying Cox regression models adjusted for age, tumor size, nodes, grade, estrogen receptor (ER) status, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status, treatment, and study. Invasive disease-free survival (IDFS) was the primary end point; distant disease-free survival (DDFS) and overall survival (OS) were also assessed, overall and by breast cancer subtypes. Results Data from 10,319 patients from 19 studies were included (median OS follow-up, 6.9 years); 1,787 patients (17%) received chemotherapy, 4,036 (39%) received endocrine monotherapy, 3,583 (35%) received both, and 913 (9%) received none or their treatment was unknown. PIK3CA mutations occurred in 32% of patients, with significant associations with ER positivity, increasing age, lower grade, and smaller size (all P < .001). Prevalence of PIK3CA mutations was 18%, 22%, and 37% in the ER-negative/HER2-negative, HER2-positive, and ER-positive/HER2-negative subtypes, respectively. In univariable analysis, PIK3CA mutations were associated with better IDFS (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.84; P < .001), with evidence for a stronger effect in the first years of follow-up (0 to 5 years: HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.66 to 0.81; P < .001; 5 to 10 years: HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.68 to 0.99; P = .037); > 10 years: (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.84 to 1.58; P = .38; P heterogeneity = .02). In multivariable analysis, PIK3CA genotype remained significant for improved IDFS ( P = .043), but not for the DDFS and OS end points. Conclusion In this large pooled analysis, PIK3CA mutations were significantly associated with a better IDFS, DDFS, and OS, but had a lesser prognostic effect after adjustment for other prognostic factors.
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