Extinction risk in natural populations depends on stochastic factors that affect individuals, and is estimated by incorporating such factors into stochastic models. Stochasticity can be divided into ...four categories, which include the probabilistic nature of birth and death at the level of individuals (demographic stochasticity), variation in population-level birth and death rates among times or locations (environmental stochasticity), the sex of individuals and variation in vital rates among individuals within a population (demographic heterogeneity). Mechanistic stochastic models that include all of these factors have not previously been developed to examine their combined effects on extinction risk. Here we derive a family of stochastic Ricker models using different combinations of all these stochastic factors, and show that extinction risk depends strongly on the combination of factors that contribute to stochasticity. Furthermore, we show that only with the full stochastic model can the relative importance of environmental and demographic variability, and therefore extinction risk, be correctly determined. Using the full model, we find that demographic sources of stochasticity are the prominent cause of variability in a laboratory population of Tribolium castaneum (red flour beetle), whereas using only the standard simpler models would lead to the erroneous conclusion that environmental variability dominates. Our results demonstrate that current estimates of extinction risk for natural populations could be greatly underestimated because variability has been mistakenly attributed to the environment rather than the demographic factors described here that entail much higher extinction risk for the same variability level.
Range expansions are central to two ecological issues reshaping patterns of global biodiversity: biological invasions and climate change. Traditional theory considers range expansion as the outcome ...of the demographic processes of birth, death and dispersal, while ignoring the evolutionary implications of such processes. Recent research suggests evolution could also play a critical role in determining expansion speed but controlled experiments are lacking. Here we use flour beetles (Tribolium castaneum) to show experimentally that mean expansion speed and stochastic variation in speed are both increased by rapid evolution of traits at the expansion edge. We find that higher dispersal ability and lower intrinsic growth rates evolve at the expansion edge compared with spatially nonevolving controls. Furthermore, evolution of these traits is variable, leading to enhanced variance in speed among replicate population expansions. Our results demonstrate that evolutionary processes must be considered alongside demographic ones to better understand and predict range expansions.
Four metacommunity paradigms—usually called neutral, species sorting, mass effects, and patch dynamics, respectively—are widely used for empirical and theoretical studies of spatial community ...dynamics. The paradigm framework highlights key ecological mechanisms operating in metacommunities, such as dispersal limitation, competition-colonization tradeoffs, or species equivalencies. However, differences in coexistence mechanisms between the paradigms and in situations with combined influences of multiple paradigms are not well understood. Here, we create a common model for competitive metacommunities, with unique parameterizations for each metacommunity aradigm and for scenarios with multiple paradigms operating simultaneously. We derive analytical expressions for the strength of Chesson's spatial coexistence mechanisms and quantify these for each paradigm via simulation. For our model, fitness-density covariance, a concentration effect measuring the importance of intraspecific aggregation of individuals, is the dominant coexistence mechanism in all three niche-based metacommunity paradigms. Increased dispersal between patches erodes intraspecific aggregation, leading to lower coexistence strength in the mass effects paradigm compared to species sorting. Our analysis demonstrates the potential importance of aggregation of individuals (fitness-density covariance) over co-variation in abiotic environments and competition between species (the storage effect), as fitness-density covariance can be stronger than the storage effect and is the sole stabilizing mechanism in the patch dynamics paradigm. As expected, stable coexistence does not occur in the neutral paradigm, which requires species to be equal and emphasizes the role of stochasticity. We show that stochasticity also plays an important role in niche-structured metacommunities by altering coexistence strength. We conclude that Chesson's spatial coexistence mechanisms provide a flexible framework for comparing metacommunities of varying complexity.
Species expanding into new habitats as a result of climate change or human introductions will frequently encounter resident competitors. Theoretical models suggest that such interspecific competition ...can alter the speed of expansion and the shape of expanding range boundaries. However, competitive interactions are rarely considered when forecasting the success or speed of expansion, in part because there has been no direct experimental evidence that competition affects either expansion speed or boundary shape. Here we demonstrate that interspecific competition alters both expansion speed and range boundary shape. Using a two-species experimental system of the flour beetles Tribolium castaneum and Tribolium confusum, we show that interspecific competition dramatically slows expansion across a landscape over multiple generations. Using a parameterized stochastic model of expansion, we find that this slowdown can persist over the long term. We also find that the shape of the moving range boundary changes continuously over many generations of expansion, first steepening and then becoming shallower, due to the competitive effect of the resident and density-dependent dispersal of the invader. This dynamic boundary shape suggests that current forecasting approaches assuming a constant shape could be misleading. More broadly, our results demonstrate that interactions between competing species can play a large role during range expansions and thus should be included in models and studies that monitor, forecast, or manage expansions in natural systems.
Setting aside high-quality large areas of habitat to protect threatened populations is becoming increasingly difficult as humans fragment and degrade the environment. Biologists and managers ...therefore must determine the best way to shepherd small populations through the dual challenges of reductions in both the number of individuals and genetic variability. By bringing in additional individuals, threatened populations can be increased in size (demographic rescue) or provided with variation to facilitate adaptation and reduce inbreeding (genetic rescue). The relative strengths of demographic and genetic rescue for reducing extinction and increasing growth of threatened populations are untested, and which type of rescue is effective may vary with population size. Using the flour beetle (Tribolium castaneum) in a microcosm experiment, we disentangled the genetic and demographic components of rescue, and compared them with adaptation from standing genetic variation (evolutionary rescue in the strictest sense) using 244 experimental populations founded at either a smaller (50 individuals) or larger (150 individuals) size. Both types of rescue reduced extinction, and those effects were additive. Over the course of six generations, genetic rescue increased population sizes and intrinsic fitness substantially. Both large and small populations showed evidence of being able to adapt from standing genetic variation. Our results support the practice of genetic rescue in facilitating adaptation and reducing inbreeding depression, and suggest that demographic rescue alone may suffice in larger populations even if only moderately inbred individuals are available for addition.
Although mean rates of spread for invasive species have been intensively studied, variance in spread rates has been neglected. Variance in spread rates can be driven exogenously by environmental ...variability or endogenously by demographic or genetic stochasticity in reproduction, survival, and dispersal. Endogenous variability is likely to be important in spread but has not been studied empirically. We show that endogenously generated variance in spread rates is remarkably high between replicated invasions of the flour beetle Tribolium castaneum in laboratory microcosms. The observed variation between replicate invasions cannot be explained by demographic stochasticity alone, which indicates inherent limitations to predictability in even the simplest ecological settings.
The β‐null deviation measure, developed as a null model for β‐diversity, is increasingly used in empirical studies to detect the underlying structuring mechanisms in communities (e.g. niche versus ...neutral and stochastic versus deterministic). Despite growing use, the ecological interpretation of the presence/absence and abundance‐based versions of the β‐null diversity measure have not been tested against communities with known assembly mechanisms, and thus have not been validated as an appropriate tool for inferring assembly mechanisms. Using a mechanistic model with known assembly mechanisms, we simulated replicate metacommunities and examined β‐null deviation values 1) across a gradient of niche (species‐sorting) to neutrally structured metacommunities, 2) through time, and 3) we compared the effect of changes in assembly mechanism on the performance of the β‐null deviation measures. The impact of stochasticity on assembly outcomes was also considered. β‐null deviation measures proved to be interpretable as a measure of niche or neutral assembly. However, the presence/absence version of the β‐null deviation measure could not differentiate between niche and neutral metacommunities if demographic stochasticity were present. The abundance‐based β‐null deviation measure was successful in distinguishing between niche and neutral metacommunities and was robust to the presence of stochasticity, changes through time, and changing assembly mechanisms. However, we suggest that it is not robust to changing abundance evenness distributions or sampling of communities, and so its interpretation still requires some care. We encourage the testing of the assumptions behind null models for ecology and care in their application.
Although recent work has shown that both deterministic and stochastic processes are important in structuring microbial communities, the factors that affect the relative contributions of niche and ...neutral processes are poorly understood. The macrobiological literature indicates that ecological disturbances can influence assembly processes. Thus, we sampled bacterial communities at 4 and 16 weeks following a wildfire and used null deviation analysis to examine the role that time since disturbance has in community assembly. Fire dramatically altered bacterial community structure and diversity as well as soil chemistry for both time-points. Community structure shifted between 4 and 16 weeks for both burned and unburned communities. Community assembly in burned sites 4 weeks after fire was significantly more stochastic than in unburned sites. After 16 weeks, however, burned communities were significantly less stochastic than unburned communities. Thus, we propose a three-phase model featuring shifts in the relative importance of niche and neutral processes as a function of time since disturbance. Because neutral processes are characterized by a decoupling between environmental parameters and community structure, we hypothesize that a better understanding of community assembly may be important in determining where and when detailed studies of community composition are valuable for predicting ecosystem function.
Understanding the movement of species’ ranges is a classic ecological problem that takes on urgency in this era of global change. Historically treated as a purely ecological process, range expansion ...is now understood to involve eco-evolutionary feedbacks due to spatial genetic structure that emerges as populations spread.We synthesize empirical and theoretical work on the eco-evolutionary dynamics of range expansion, with emphasis on bridging directional, deterministic processes that favor evolved increases in dispersal and demographic traits with stochastic processes that lead to the random fixation of alleles and traits. We develop a framework for understanding the joint influence of these processes in changing the mean and variance of expansion speed and its underlying traits. Our synthesis of recent laboratory experiments supports the consistent role of evolution in accelerating expansion speed on average, and highlights unexpected diversity in how evolution can influence variability in speed: results not well predicted by current theory. We discuss and evaluate support for three classes of modifiers of eco-evolutionary range dynamics (landscape context, trait genetics, and biotic interactions), identify emerging themes, and suggest new directions for future work in a field that stands to increase in relevance as populations move in response to global change.
We conducted an analysis of global forest cover to reveal that 70% of remaining forest is within 1 km of the forest's edge, subject to the degrading effects of fragmentation. A synthesis of ...fragmentation experiments spanning multiple biomes and scales, five continents, and 35 years demonstrates that habitat fragmentation reduces biodiversity by 13 to 75% and impairs key ecosystem functions by decreasing biomass and altering nutrient cycles. Effects are greatest in the smallest and most isolated fragments, and they magnify with the passage of time. These findings indicate an urgent need for conservation and restoration measures to improve landscape connectivity, which will reduce extinction rates and help maintain ecosystem services.
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