China is planning to introduce emission trading scheme (ETS) to decrease CO2 emission. As low carbon energy (LCE) will play a pivotal role in reducing CO2 emissions, our paper is to assess the extent ...and the conditions under which a carbon ETS can deliver LCE investment in China. We chose wind technology as a case study and a real-option based model was built to explore the impact of a number of variables and design features on investment decisions, e.g. carbon and electricity price, carbon market risk, carbon price floor and ceiling and on-grid ratio. We compute critical values of these variables and features and explore trade-offs among them. According to our work, a carbon ETS has a significant effect on wind power plant investment although it cannot support investment in wind power on its own. Carbon price stabilization mechanisms such as carbon price floor can significantly improve the effect of carbon ETS but the critical floor to support investment is still much higher than the carbon price in China pilot ETSs. Our results show that other policy measures will be needed to promote low-carbon energy development in China.
•The impact of Chinese emission trading scheme on low carbon energy investment is assessed.•A real-option based investment decision model under uncertainty is built and employed.•Key variables and features of ETS influencing wind power investment are explored.•Chinese carbon ETS cannot support low carbon energy investment on its own.•Other policy measures complementing ETS are still needed and should be coordinated.
•The interaction effect between carbon pricing and renewable subsidies is explored.•A case study for China is conducted based on a partial equilibrium model.•The optimal portfolio of the carbon ...abatement and renewable targets is obtained.•Renewable subsidy may cause a collapse of CO2 price with the policy target in 2020.•Tightening the carbon budget may be necessary to stabilise the carbon price.
In order to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, many countries have set various kinds of policy targets and introduced policy instruments accordingly, such as carbon pricing and renewable electricity subsidies. As a consequence, potential interactions and, especially, conflicts between these co-existing instruments have become a significant concern. In this paper, a partial equilibrium model is constructed to explore the interaction between carbon pricing and renewable electricity subsidies. Based on this model, the following issues are explored: the conditions under which a single policy is optimal and the scenarios where a mixed policy is necessary in the realisation of the outlined policy targets, and the means by which to coordinate different policy targets to reduce the negative effects of any potential conflicts, especially possible CO2 price collapses. The optimal portfolio of the two policy targets is obtained, and the method of coordinating them to stabilise CO2 prices is delineated. Thereafter, an empirical study of China’s case is conducted. The results show that with the policy targets set by the Chinese government for 2020, renewable energy power subsidies may lead to a collapse of CO2 prices, and a tightening of the carbon emission budget is necessary to stabilise the latter.
In this research, the impact of the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on the corporate value of European electricity corporations has been measured, and a comparison study of the impact ...between phase I and phase II of the EU ETS has been performed. To achieve this, a modified multifactor market model has been used to investigate how the development of EU emission allowance (EUA) prices has influenced corporate value. The results indicate that the impact of these has changed much from phase I to phase II. EUA price developments have affected corporate value in opposite directions: in phase I, the increase in EUA prices tended to cause corporate value appreciation, while during phase II, it was more likely to induce depreciation. Second, the corporate value development has been much more sensitive to changes in EUA prices in phase II than in phase I. The causes of the impact change have also been analyzed. The conclusion reached has been that the changes have resulted mainly from the adjustment of the EUA allocation policy between phases I and II. Moreover, the effects of corporate efforts to reduce CO₂ emissions on corporate value did not emerge until phase II, when the EUA allocation became more rigorous.
Relying on real options theory, we employ a multistage decision model to analyze the effect of delaying the introduction of emission trading systems (ETS) on power plant investments in carbon capture ...and storage (CCS) retrofits, on plant operation, and on carbon dioxide (CO2) abatement. Unlike previous studies, we assume that the investment decision is made before the ETS is in place, and we allow CCS operating flexibility for new power plant investments. Thus, the plant may be run in CCS-off mode if carbon prices are low. We employ Monte Carlo simulation methods to account for uncertainties in the prices of CO2 certificates, other inputs, and output prices, relying on a realistic parameterization for a supercritical pulverized coal plant in China. We find that CCS operating flexibility lowers the critical carbon price needed to support CCS investment because it renders CCS investment less irreversible. For a low carbon price path, operating flexibility also implies that delaying the introduction of an ETS hardly affects plant CO2 abatement since the plant operator is better off purchasing emission certificates rather than operating the plant in CCS mode. Interestingly, for low carbon prices we find a U-shaped relation between the length of the delay and the economic value of the plant. Thus, delaying the introduction of an ETS may make investors worse off.
•We explore how delaying introducing carbon pricing affects plant investment and operation.•A multistage decision model with CCS operating flexibility was built.•We observe a U-shaped relation between the length of delay and the plant's economic value.•Delaying introducing carbon pricing hardly affects plant CO2 abatement for low carbon price.•CCS operating flexibility lowers the critical carbon price to support CCS retrofit.
In this paper, a real options based binominal lattices model for the investment of coal bed methane (CBM) is conducted. CBM prices and market demand are incorporated into the model as the predominant ...uncertain factors and it is solved by using the bidimensional binominal lattices approach. Then the model is employed to evaluate the investment in CBM projects in China, and the effect of related policies is analyzed. The empirical results demonstrate that the model can be used to offer a better explanation of why the CBM industry has developed slowly in China from an investment perspective. It is found that the current policy environment is not positive enough to attract investment in the CBM industry. Among various factors, CBM prices yield the most significant effect on stimulating investment in CBM development. Increasing the price subsidy is also an effective policy to stimulate investment and promote the development of the CBM industry in China.
► A real options model for coal bed methane (CBM) investment in China is conducted. ► The model is solved based on the bidimensional binominal lattices approach. ► It offers a better explanation of why the CBM industry in China has developed slowly. ► Current investment policy environment is not favourable enough to attract investment. ► Policy mix including pricing reform can significantly stimulate investment in CBM industry.
•rAdV-SFV-E2 is an adenovirus-delivered, alphavirus replicon-vectored vaccine against CSF.•rAdV-SFV-E2-immunized piglets with maternally derived antibodies (MDAs) were protected from lethal CSFV ...challenge.•Pre-existing MDAs did not interfere with the efficacy of rAdV-SFV-E2.
Classical swine fever (CSF) is an economically important disease caused by Classical swine fever virus (CSFV). In order to eradicate CSF, many marker vaccines that allow differentiation of infected from vaccinated animals (DIVA) have been developed. In our previous studies, a DIVA CSF vaccine rAdV-SFV-E2 has been demonstrated to completely protect pigs against lethal CSFV challenge. In the context of risk assessments for an emergency vaccination scenario, the question has been raised whether preexisting maternally derived antibodies (MDAs) interfere with the efficacy of the vaccine. In this study, six groups of piglets (n=5), with or without anti-C-strain or anti-rAdV-SFV-E2 MDAs, were immunized twice with 106 TCID50 rAdV-SFV-E2 and challenged with the CSFV Shimen strain. Clinical signs, CSFV-specific antibodies, viremia and pathological and histopathological changes were monitored. The results showed that the vaccinated piglets, either with or without MDAs directed against C-strain (about 67% blocking rate) or rAdV-SFV-E2 (about 50% blocking rate) were completely protected; however, the mock-vaccinated piglets displayed severe CSF-typical clinical symptoms, viremia, pathological/histopathological changes and deaths (5/5). These findings demonstrate that the MDAs to either rAdV-SFV-E2 or C-strain do not interfere with the efficacy of rAdV-SFV-E2, which highlights the great potential of the vaccine for control and eradication of CSF.
The effect of an EU emission trading scheme (EU ETS) on CO₂ abatement technology development is limited, according to many empirical studies. This is the result of an existing low carbon price and ...the future uncertainty of the development of the carbon market. Carbon price stabilisation mechanisms, especially the carbon price floor, may serve to supplement the ETS and cope with this problem. We are concerned with how the carbon price floor affects the investment in carbon abatement technology, the resulting CO₂ abatement, and how to best design such a carbon floor price. In this paper, we focus on carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology by building a CCS investment and operation decision model based on real options theory. We consider investment timing and CCS operation flexibility and we also design a model for carbon price evolution with a carbon price floor using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We determine the floor prices above which immediate CCS investment is occuring, and those at which CO₂ emissions can be eliminated. According to the simulation results, the carbon price floor has a significant effect on promoting CCS investment. The marginal effect of an increasing carbon price floor first rises and then falls; when the floor price reaches a threshold value, its marginal effect becomes minimal. Based on the simulation results, the carbon floor price for EU ETS could be set at about 20 EUR/t CO₂ to stimulate the CCS investment, while it should be increased to 30 EUR/t CO₂ to sufficiently promote CO₂ abatement.
To compare neoadjuvant chemotherapy (nCT) with CAPOX alone versus neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) with capecitabine in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) with uninvolved mesorectal fascia ...(MRF).
nCRT is associated with higher surgical complications, worse long-term functional outcomes, and questionable survival benefits. Comparatively, nCT alone seems a promising alternative treatment in lower-risk LARC patients with uninvolved MRF.
Patients between June 2014 and October 2020 with LARC within 12 cm from the anal verge and uninvolved MRF were randomly assigned to nCT group with 4 cycles of CAPOX (Oxaliplatin 130 mg/m2 IV day 1 and Capecitabine 1000 mg/m2 twice daily for 14 d. Repeat every 3 wk) or nCRT group with Capecitabine 825 mg/m² twice daily administered orally and concurrently with radiation therapy (50 Gy/25 fractions) for 5 days per week. The primary end point is local-regional recurrence-free survival. Here we reported the results of secondary end points: histopathologic response, surgical events, and toxicity.
Of the 663 initially enrolled patients, 589 received the allocated treatment (nCT, n=300; nCRT, n=289). Pathologic complete response rate was 11.0% (95% CI, 7.8-15.3%) in the nCT arm and 13.8% (95% CI, 10.1-18.5%) in the nCRT arm ( P =0.33). The downstaging (ypStage 0 to 1) rate was 40.8% (95% CI, 35.1-46.7%) in the nCT arm and 45.6% (95% CI, 39.7-51.7%) in the nCRT arm ( P =0.27). nCT was associated with lower perioperative distant metastases rate (0.7% vs. 3.1%, P =0.03) and preventive ileostomy rate (52.2% vs. 63.6%, P =0.008) compared with nCRT. Four patients in the nCT arm received salvage nCRT because of local disease progression after nCT. Two patients in the nCT arm and 5 in the nCRT arm achieved complete clinical response and were treated with a nonsurgical approach. Similar results were observed in subgroup analysis.
nCT achieved similar pCR and downstaging rates with lower incidence of perioperative distant metastasis and preventive ileostomy compared with nCRT. CAPOX could be an effective alternative to neoadjuvant therapy in LARC with uninvolved MRF. Long-term follow-up is needed to confirm these results.
The effect of an EU emission trading scheme (EU ETS) on CO sub(2) abatement technology development is limited, according to many empirical studies. This is the result of an existing low carbon price ...and the future uncertainty of the development of the carbon market. Carbon price stabilisation mechanisms, especially the carbon price floor, may serve to supplement the ETS and cope with this problem. We are concerned with how the carbon price floor affects the investment in carbon abatement technology, the resulting CO sub(2) abatement, and how to best design such a carbon floor price. In this paper, we focus on carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology by building a CCS investment and operation decision model based on real options theory. We consider investment timing and CCS operation flexibility and we also design a model for carbon price evolution with a carbon price floor using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We determine the floor prices above which immediate CCS investment is occuring, and those at which CO sub(2) emissions can be eliminated. According to the simulation results, the carbon price floor has a significant effect on promoting CCS investment. The marginal effect of an increasing carbon price floor first rises and then falls; when the floor price reaches a threshold value, its marginal effect becomes minimal. Based on the simulation results, the carbon floor price for EU ETS could be set at about 20 EUR/t CO sub(2) to stimulate the CCS investment, while it should be increased to 30 EUR/t CO sub(2) to sufficiently promote CO sub(2) abatement.
The effect of an EU emission trading scheme (EU ETS) on CO
2
abatement technology development is limited, according to many empirical studies. This is the result of an existing low carbon price and ...the future uncertainty of the development of the carbon market. Carbon price stabilisation mechanisms, especially the carbon price floor, may serve to supplement the ETS and cope with this problem. We are concerned with how the carbon price floor affects the investment in carbon abatement technology, the resulting CO
2
abatement, and how to best design such a carbon floor price. In this paper, we focus on carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology by building a CCS investment and operation decision model based on real options theory. We consider investment timing and CCS operation flexibility and we also design a model for carbon price evolution with a carbon price floor using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We determine the floor prices above which immediate CCS investment is occuring, and those at which CO
2
emissions can be eliminated. According to the simulation results, the carbon price floor has a significant effect on promoting CCS investment. The marginal effect of an increasing carbon price floor first rises and then falls; when the floor price reaches a threshold value, its marginal effect becomes minimal. Based on the simulation results, the carbon floor price for EU ETS could be set at about 20 EUR/t CO
2
to stimulate the CCS investment, while it should be increased to 30 EUR/t CO
2
to sufficiently promote CO
2
abatement.
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