The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has a goal of detecting small planets orbiting stars bright enough for mass determination via ground-based radial velocity observations. Here, we ...present estimates of how many exoplanets the TESS mission will detect, the physical properties of the detected planets, and the properties of the stars that those planets orbit. This work uses stars drawn from the TESS Input Catalog Candidate Target List and revises yields from prior studies that were based on Galactic models. We modeled the TESS observing strategy to select approximately 200,000 stars at 2-minute cadence, while the remaining stars are observed at 30-minute cadence in full-frame image data. We placed zero or more planets in orbit around each star, with physical properties following measured exoplanet occurrence rates, and used the TESS noise model to predict the derived properties of the detected exoplanets. In the TESS 2-minute cadence mode we estimate that TESS will find 1250 70 exoplanets (90% confidence), including 250 smaller than 2 R⊕. Furthermore, we predict that an additional 3100 planets will be found in full-frame image data orbiting bright dwarf stars and more than 10,000 around fainter stars. We predict that TESS will find 500 planets orbiting M dwarfs, but the majority of planets will orbit stars larger than the Sun. Our simulated sample of planets contains hundreds of small planets amenable to radial velocity follow-up, potentially more than tripling the number of planets smaller than 4 R⊕ with mass measurements. This sample of simulated planets is available for use in planning follow-up observations and analyses.
This paper discusses the transit model-fitting and multiple-planet search algorithms and performance of the Kepler Science Data Processing Pipeline, developed by the Kepler Science Operations Center ...(SOC). Threshold crossing events (TCEs), which are transit candidate events, are generated by the Transiting Planet Search (TPS) component of the pipeline and subsequently processed in the data validation (DV) component. The transit model is used in DV to fit TCEs to characterize planetary candidates and to derive parameters that are used in various diagnostic tests to classify them. After the signature associated with the TCE is removed from the light curve of the target star, the residual light curve goes through TPS again to search for additional TCEs. The iterative process of transit model-fitting and multiple-planet search continues until no TCE is generated from the residual light curve or an upper limit is reached. The transit model-fitting and multiple-planet search performance of the final release (9.3, 2016 January) of the pipeline is demonstrated with the results of the processing of four years (17 quarters) of flight data from the primary Kepler Mission. The transit model-fitting results are accessible from the NASA Exoplanet Archive. The final version of the SOC codebase is available through GitHub.
We have adapted the algorithmic tools developed during the Kepler mission to vet the quality of transit-like signals for use on the K2 mission data. Using the four sets of publicly available light ...curves at MAST, we produced a uniformly vetted catalog of 772 transiting planet candidates from K2 as listed at the NASA Exoplanet Archive in the K2 Table of Candidates. Our analysis marks 676 of these as planet candidates and 96 as false positives. All confirmed planets pass our vetting tests. Sixty of our false positives are new identifications, effectively doubling the overall number of astrophysical signals mimicking planetary transits in K2 data. Most of the targets listed as false positives in our catalog show either prominent secondary eclipses, transit depths suggesting a stellar companion instead of a planet, or significant photocenter shifts during transit. We packaged our tools into the open-source, automated vetting pipeline Discovery and Vetting of Exoplanets (DAVE), designed to streamline follow-up efforts by reducing the time and resources wasted observing targets that are likely false positives. DAVE will also be a valuable tool for analyzing planet candidates from NASA's TESS mission, where several guest-investigator programs will provide independent light-curve sets-and likely many more from the community. We are currently testing DAVE on recently released TESS planet candidates and will present our results in a follow-up paper.
'Oumuamua, the first bona fide interstellar planetesimal, was discovered passing through our Solar system on a hyperbolic orbit. This object was likely dynamically ejected from an extrasolar ...planetary system after a series of close encounters with gas giant planets. To account for 'Oumuamua's detection, simple arguments suggest that ∼1M⊕ of planetesimals are ejected per solar mass of Galactic stars. However, that value assumes mono-sized planetesimals. If the planetesimal mass distribution is instead top-heavy, the inferred mass in interstellar planetesimals increases to an implausibly high value. The tension between theoretical expectations for the planetesimal mass function and the observation of 'Oumuamua can be relieved if a small fraction (∼0.1−1 per cent) of planetesimals are tidally disrupted on the pathway to ejection into 'Oumuamua-sized fragments. Using a large suite of simulations of giant planet dynamics including planetesimals, we confirm that 0.1–1 per cent of planetesimals pass within the tidal disruption radius of a gas giant on their pathway to ejection. 'Oumuamua may thus represent a surviving fragment of a disrupted planetesimal. Finally, we argue that an asteroidal composition is dynamically disfavoured for 'Oumuamua, as asteroidal planetesimals are both less abundant and ejected at a lower efficiency than cometary planetesimals.
ABSTRACT The late stages of terrestrial planet formation are dominated by giant impacts that collectively influence the growth, composition, and habitability of any planets that form. Hitherto, ...numerical models designed to explore these late stage collisions have been limited by assuming that all collisions lead to perfect accretion, and many of these studies lack the large number of realizations needed to account for the chaotic nature of N-body systems. We improve on these limitations by performing 280 simulations of planet formation around a Sun-like star, half of which used an N-body algorithm that has recently been modified to include fragmentation and hit-and-run (bouncing) collisions. We find that when fragmentation is included, the final planets formed are comparable in terms of mass and number; however, their collision histories differ significantly and the accretion time approximately doubles. We explored impacts onto Earth-like planets, which we parameterized in terms of their specific impact energies. Only 15 of our 164 Earth-analogs experienced an impact that was energetic enough to strip an entire atmosphere. To strip about half of an atmosphere requires energies comparable to recent models of the Moon-forming giant impact. Almost all Earth-analogs received at least one impact that met this criteria during the 2 Gyr simulations and the median was three giant impacts. The median time of the final giant impact was 43 Myr after the start of the simulations, leading us to conclude that the time-frame of the Moon-forming impact is typical among planetary systems around Sun-like stars.
Abstract
In recent years, a paradigm shift has occurred in exoplanet science, wherein low-mass stars are increasingly viewed as a foundational pillar of the search for potentially habitable worlds in ...the solar neighborhood. However, the formation processes of this rapidly accumulating sample of planet systems are still poorly understood. Moreover, it is unclear whether tenuous primordial atmospheres around these Earth analogs could have survived the intense epoch of heightened stellar activity that is typical for low-mass stars. We present new simulations of in situ planet formation across the M-dwarf mass spectrum, and derive leftover debris populations of small bodies that might source delayed volatile delivery. We then follow the evolution of this debris with high-resolution models of real systems of habitable zone planets around low-mass stars such as TRAPPIST-1, Proxima Centauri, and TOI-700. While debris in the radial vicinity of the habitable zone planets is removed rapidly, thus making delayed volatile delivery highly unlikely, we find that material ubiquitously scattered into an exo-asteroid belt region during the planet-formation process represents a potentially lucrative reservoir of icy small bodies. Thus, the presence of external approximately Neptune–Saturn mass planets capable of dynamically perturbing these asteroids would be a sign that habitable zone worlds around low-mass stars might have avoided complete desiccation. However, we also find that such giant planets significantly limit the efficiency of asteroidal implantation during the planet-formation process. In the coming decade, long-baseline radial velocity studies and Roman Space Telescope microlensing observations will undoubtedly further constrain this process.
Abstract
AU Mic is a young (∼24 Myr), pre-main-sequence M dwarf star that was observed in the first month of science observations of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) and reobserved 2 ...years later. This target has photometric variability from a variety of sources that is readily apparent in the TESS light curves; spots induce modulation in the light curve, flares are present throughout (manifesting as sharp rises with slow exponential decay phases), and transits of AU Mic b may be seen by eye as dips in the light curve. We present a combined analysis of both TESS Sector 1 and Sector 27 AU Mic light curves including the new 20 s cadence data from TESS Year 3. We compare flare rates between both observations and analyze the spot evolution, showing that the activity levels increase slightly from Sector 1 to Sector 27. Furthermore, the 20 s data collection allows us to detect more flares, smaller flares, and better resolve flare morphology in white light as compared to the 2 minute data collection mode. We also refine the parameters for AU Mic b by fitting three additional transits of AU Mic b from Sector 27 using a model that includes stellar activity. We show that the transits exhibit clear transit timing variations with an amplitude of ∼80 s. We also detect three transits of a 2.8
R
⊕
planet, AU Mic c, which has a period of 18.86 days.
We present self-consistent three-dimensional climate simulations of possible habitable states for the newly discovered habitable-zone Earth-sized planet TOI-700 d. We explore a variety of atmospheric ...compositions, pressures, and rotation states for both ocean-covered and completely desiccated planets in order to assess the planet's potential for habitability. For all 20 of our simulated cases, we use our climate model outputs to synthesize transmission spectra, combined-light spectra, and integrated broadband phase curves. These climatologically informed observables will help the community assess the technological capabilities necessary for future characterization of this planet-as well as similar transiting planets discovered in the future-and will provide a guide for distinguishing possible climate states if one day we do obtain sensitive spectral observations of a habitable planet around an M star. We find that TOI-700 d is a strong candidate for a habitable world and can potentially maintain temperate surface conditions under a wide variety of atmospheric compositions. Unfortunately, the spectral feature depths from the resulting transmission spectra and the peak flux and variations from our synthesized phase curves for TOI-700 d do not exceed 10 ppm. This will likely prohibit the James Webb Space Telescope from characterizing its atmosphere; however, this motivates the community to invest in future instrumentation that perhaps can one day reveal the true nature of TOI-700 d and to continue to search for similar planets around less distant stars.
ABSTRACT The NASA Kepler mission ha s discovered thousands of new planetary candidates, many of which have been confirmed through follow-up observations. A primary goal of the mission is to determine ...the occurrence rate of terrestrial-size planets within the Habitable Zone (HZ) of their host stars. Here we provide a list of HZ exoplanet candidates from the Kepler Q1-Q17 Data Release 24 data-vetting process. This work was undertaken as part of the Kepler HZ Working Group. We use a variety of criteria regarding HZ boundaries and planetary sizes to produce complete lists of HZ candidates, including a catalog of 104 candidates within the optimistic HZ and 20 candidates with radii less than two Earth radii within the conservative HZ. We cross-match our HZ candidates with the stellar properties and confirmed planet properties from Data Release 25 to provide robust stellar parameters and candidate dispositions. We also include false-positive probabilities recently calculated by Morton et al. for each of the candidates within our catalogs to aid in their validation. Finally, we performed dynamical analysis simulations for multi-planet systems that contain candidates with radii less than two Earth radii as a step toward validation of those systems.
We present the first results of our ongoing project conducting simultaneous multiwavelength observations of flares on nearby active M dwarfs. We acquired data of the nearby dM3.5e star EV Lac using ...five different observatories: NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), NASA's Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory (Swift), NASA's Neutron Interior Composition Explorer (NICER), the University of Hawaii 2.2-meter telescope (UH88), and the Las Cumbres Observatory Global Telescope (LCOGT) Network. During the ∼25 days of TESS observations, we acquired three simultaneous UV/X-ray observations using Swift that total ∼18 ks, 21 simultaneous epochs totaling ∼98 ks of X-ray data using NICER, one observation (∼3 hr) with UH88, and one observation (∼3 hr) with LCOGT. We identified 56 flares in the TESS light curve with estimated energies in the range log E(T) (erg) = (30.5–33.2), nine flares in the Swift UVM2 light curve with estimated energies in the range log E(UV) (erg) = (29.3–31.1), 14 flares in the NICER light curve with estimated minimum energies in the range log E(N) (erg) = (30.5–32.3), and 1 flare in the LCOGT light curve with log E(L) (erg) = 31.6. We find that the flare frequency distributions (FFDs) of TESS and NICER flares have comparable slopes, β(T) = −0.67 ± 0.09 and β(N) = − 0.65 ± 0.19, and the FFD of UVOT flares has a shallower slope (β(U) = −0.38 ± 0.13). Furthermore, we do not find conclusive evidence for either the first ionization potential (FIP) or the inverse FIP effect during coronal flares on EV Lac.
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