Climate change is expected to have complex effects on infectious diseases, causing some to increase, others to decrease, and many to shift their distributions. There have been several important ...advances in understanding the role of climate and climate change on wildlife and human infectious disease dynamics over the past several years. This essay examines 3 major areas of advancement, which include improvements to mechanistic disease models, investigations into the importance of climate variability to disease dynamics, and understanding the consequences of thermal mismatches between host and parasites. Applying the new information derived from these advances to climate-disease models and addressing the pressing knowledge gaps that we identify should improve the capacity to predict how climate change will affect disease risk for both wildlife and humans.
A new synthetic route, to prepare an alkylated indacenodithieno3,2‐bthiophene‐based nonfullerene acceptor (C8‐ITIC), is reported. Compared to the reported ITIC with phenylalkyl side chains, the new ...acceptor C8‐ITIC exhibits a reduction in the optical band gap, higher absorptivity, and an increased propensity to crystallize. Accordingly, blends with the donor polymer PBDB‐T exhibit a power conversion efficiency (PCE) up to 12.4%. Further improvements in efficiency are found upon backbone fluorination of the donor polymer to afford the novel material PFBDB‐T. The resulting blend with C8‐ITIC shows an impressive PCE up to 13.2% as a result of the higher open‐circuit voltage. Electroluminescence studies demonstrate that backbone fluorination reduces the energy loss of the blends, with PFBDB‐T/C8‐ITIC‐based cells exhibiting a small energy loss of 0.6 eV combined with a high JSC of 19.6 mA cm−2.
The synthesis of a novel alkylated indacenodithioeno3,2‐bthiophene (C8‐IDTT) based nonfullerene acceptor (C8‐ITIC), is reported. Compared to ITIC with phenylalkyl side chains, the acceptor exhibits a redshifted absorption with increased absorptivity. Solar cell power conversion efficiencies (PCEs) of up to 13.2 % are achieved, with the high PCE attributed to the broad absorption, high crystallinity of C8‐ITIC and low voltage loss.
Recent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use ...mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmission for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue change with mean temperature, and we show that these predictions are well matched by human case data. Across all three viruses, models and human case data both show that transmission occurs between 18-34°C with maximal transmission occurring in a range from 26-29°C. Controlling for population size and two socioeconomic factors, temperature-dependent transmission based on our mechanistic model is an important predictor of human transmission occurrence and incidence. Risk maps indicate that tropical and subtropical regions are suitable for extended seasonal or year-round transmission, but transmission in temperate areas is limited to at most three months per year even if vectors are present. Such brief transmission windows limit the likelihood of major epidemics following disease introduction in temperate zones.
Diverse host communities commonly inhibit the spread of parasites at small scales. However, the generality of this effect remains controversial. Here, we present the analysis of 205 ...biodiversity-disease relationships on 67 parasite species to test whether biodiversity-disease relationships are generally nonlinear, moderated by spatial scale, and sensitive to underrepresentation in the literature. Our analysis of the published literature reveals that biodiversity-disease relationships are generally hump-shaped (i.e., nonlinear) and biodiversity generally inhibits disease at local scales, but this effect weakens as spatial scale increases. Spatial scale is, however, related to study design and parasite type, highlighting the need for additional multiscale research. Few studies are unrepresentative of communities at low diversity, but missing data at low diversity from field studies could result in underreporting of amplification effects. Experiments appear to underrepresent high-diversity communities, which could result in underreporting of dilution effects. Despite context dependence, biodiversity loss at local scales appears to increase disease, suggesting that at local scales, biodiversity loss could negatively impact human and wildlife populations.
Disease outbreaks among wildlife have surged in recent decades alongside climate change, although it remains unclear how climate change alters disease dynamics across different geographic regions. We ...amassed a global, spatiotemporal dataset describing parasite prevalence across 7346 wildlife populations and 2021 host-parasite combinations, compiling local weather and climate records at each location. We found that hosts from cool and warm climates experienced increased disease risk at abnormally warm and cool temperatures, respectively, as predicted by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. This effect was greatest in ectothermic hosts and similar in terrestrial and freshwater systems. Projections based on climate change models indicate that ectothermic wildlife hosts from temperate and tropical zones may experience sharp increases and moderate reductions in disease risk, respectively, though the magnitude of these changes depends on parasite identity.
Thermal biology of mosquito‐borne disease Mordecai, Erin A.; Caldwell, Jamie M.; Grossman, Marissa K. ...
Ecology letters,
October 2019, Volume:
22, Issue:
10
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Mosquito‐borne diseases cause a major burden of disease worldwide. The vital rates of these ectothermic vectors and parasites respond strongly and nonlinearly to temperature and therefore to climate ...change. Here, we review how trait‐based approaches can synthesise and mechanistically predict the temperature dependence of transmission across vectors, pathogens, and environments. We present 11 pathogens transmitted by 15 different mosquito species – including globally important diseases like malaria, dengue, and Zika – synthesised from previously published studies. Transmission varied strongly and unimodally with temperature, peaking at 23–29ºC and declining to zero below 9–23ºC and above 32–38ºC. Different traits restricted transmission at low versus high temperatures, and temperature effects on transmission varied by both mosquito and parasite species. Temperate pathogens exhibit broader thermal ranges and cooler thermal minima and optima than tropical pathogens. Among tropical pathogens, malaria and Ross River virus had lower thermal optima (25–26ºC) while dengue and Zika viruses had the highest (29ºC) thermal optima. We expect warming to increase transmission below thermal optima but decrease transmission above optima. Key directions for future work include linking mechanistic models to field transmission, combining temperature effects with control measures, incorporating trait variation and temperature variation, and investigating climate adaptation and migration.
Immunity changes through ontogeny and can mediate facilitative and inhibitory interactions among co-infecting parasite species. In amphibians, most immune memory is not carried through metamorphosis, ...leading to variation in the complexity of immune responses across life stages. To test if the ontogeny of host immunity might drive interactions among co-infecting parasites, we simultaneously exposed Cuban treefrogs (
) to a fungus (
, Bd) and a nematode (
) at tadpole, metamorphic and post-metamorphic life stages. We measured metrics of host immunity, host health and parasite abundance. We predicted facilitative interactions between co-infecting parasites as the different immune responses hosts mount to combat these infectious are energetically challenging to mount simultaneously. We found ontogenetic differences in IgY levels and cellular immunity but no evidence that metamorphic frogs were more immunosuppressed than tadpoles. There was also little evidence that these parasites facilitated one another and no evidence that
infection altered host immunity or health. However, Bd, which is known to be immunosuppressive, decreased immunity in metamorphic frogs. This made metamorphic frogs both less resistant and less tolerant of Bd infection than the other life stages. These findings indicate that changes in immunity altered host responses to parasite exposures throughout ontogeny. This article is part of the theme issue 'Amphibian immunity: stress, disease and ecoimmunology'.
Although research has focused on density‐dependent responses of hosts to single‐parasite infections, hosts are exposed to numerous parasites simultaneously under natural conditions and if these ...exposures lead to infections, they can threaten host populations and ecosystem stability. Moreover, spatiotemporal variation in abundance of co‐occurring parasites might influence host infection intensity. If interactions are consistent between different coinfecting parasites, then these patterns could give managers another tool to control disease spread and even predict problematic disease emergences.
We investigated how parasite density and identity alter within‐host coinfection dynamics. To test this, we simultaneously exposed Cuban treefrogs Osteopilus septentrionalis as a model amphibian species to all pairwise combinations of three problematic parasites that commonly coinfect amphibians: the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), the nematode Aplectana hamatospicula and Ranavirus. Hosts were exposed to one parasite at a fixed dose and another parasite at a range of five doses.
Higher doses of Bd decreased Ranaviral and A. hamatospicula loads, but Bd load was not influenced by the dose of either parasite. Ranaviral load was negatively associated with A. hamatospicula dose, but A. hamatospicula load was not affected by Ranaviral dose. We found that all the pairwise coinfections were dependent on parasite density and that pairwise interactions were highly asymmetric—strong in one direction and weak in the other—consistent with interactions dominating food webs.
Synthesis and applications: We also revealed that the exposure dose of A. hamatospicula was positively associated with host tolerance to Bd infection and negatively associated with Ranaviral load in hosts. Ranavirus and Bd cause mass die‐offs in amphibians, but A. hamatospicula does not. Therefore, in systems where these parasites coexist, maintaining or increasing densities of A. hamatospicula could reduce the negative effects of Bd and Ranavirus infections. Additionally, if these asymmetric and density‐dependent patterns from community ecology are applicable to other amphibian coinfections or coinfections in other systems, this should allow conservation organizations and resource managers to predict outbreaks and manage host declines associated with deadly parasites by modifying the abundance of coinfecting parasites that might be easier to manage.
We revealed that the exposure dose of Aplectana hamatospicula was positively associated with host tolerance to Bd infection and negatively associated with Ranaviral load in hosts. Ranavirus and Bd cause mass die‐offs in amphibians, but A. hamatospicula does not. Therefore, in systems where these parasites coexist, maintaining or increasing densities of A. hamatospicula could reduce the negative effects of Bd and Ranavirus infections. Additionally, if these asymmetric and density‐dependent patterns from community ecology are applicable to other amphibian coinfections or coinfections in other systems, this should allow conservation organizations and resource managers to predict outbreaks and manage host declines associated with deadly parasites by modifying the abundance of coinfecting parasites that might be easier to manage.
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