Desde hace ya tres décadas la economía mexicana se encuentra en una trampa de lento crecimiento con alta desigualdad. Se trata de una trampa en el sentido de que el propio lento crecimiento ...interactúa con sus determinantes para mantener la estabilidad de un "equilibrio de bajo nivel". Esta obra aboga por una reorientación de la estrategia de desarrollo y la necesidad de políticas públicas que promuevan el crecimiento y simultáneamente reduzcan la desigualdad social. Colección: "Grandes problemas", coeditada por la Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México y El Colegio de México.
This book is the first comprehensive and systematic English-language treatment of Mexico's economic history to appear in nearly forty years. Drawing on several years of in-depth research, Juan Carlos ...Moreno-Brid and Jamie Ros, two of the foremost experts on the Mexican economy, examine Mexico's current development policies and problems from a historical perspective. They review long term trends in the Mexican economy and analyze past episodes of radical shifts in development strategy and in the role of markets and the state. Their book provides an overview of Mexico's economic development since Independence that compares the successive periods of stagnation and growth that alternately have characterized Mexico's economic history. It gives special attention to developments since 1940 and presents a re-evaluation of Mexico's development policies during the State-led industrialization period from 1940 to 1982 and during the more recent market reform process. This re-evaluation is critical of the dominant trend in the economic literature and revisionist by arguing that in particular, the market reforms undertaken by successive Mexican governments since 1983, have not addressed the fundamental obstacles to economic growth. Development and Growth in the Mexican Economy: An Historical Perspective also details the country's pioneering role in launching NAFTA, its membership in the OECD, and its radical macroeconomic reforms. Carefully argued and meticulously researched, the book presents a wide-ranging, authoritative study that not only pinpoints problems, but also suggests solutions for removing obstacles to economic stability and pointing the Mexican economy toward the road to recovery. Available in OSO: http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/oso/public/content/economicsfinance/9780195371161/toc.html
Latin America has been central to the main debates on development economics, ranging from the relationships between income inequality and economic growth, and the importance of geography versus ...institutions in development, to debates on the effects of trade, trade openness and protection on growth and income distribution. Despite increasing interest in the region there are few English language books on Latin American economics. This Handbook, organized into five parts, aims to fill this significant gap. Part I looks at long-term issues, including the institutional roots of Latin America's underdevelopment, the political economy of policy making, the rise, decline and re-emergence of alternative paradigms, and the environmental sustainability of the development pattern. Part II considers macroeconomic topics, including the management of capital account booms and busts, the evolution and performance of exchange rate regimes, the advances and challenges of monetary policies and financial development, and the major fiscal policy issues confronting the region, including a comparison of Latin American fiscal accounts with those of the OECD. Part III analyzes the region's economies in global context, particularly the role of Latin America in the world trade system and the effects of dependence on natural resources (characteristic of many countries of the region) on growth and human development. It reviews the trends of foreign direct investment, the opportunities and challenges raised by the emergence of China as buyer of the region's commodities and competitor in the world market, and the transformation of the Latin America from a region of immigration to one of massive emigration. Part IV deals with matters of productive development. At the aggregate level it analyzes issues of technological catching up and divergence as well as different perspectives on the poor productivity and growth performance of the region during recent decades. At the sectoral level, it looks at agricultural policies and performance, the problems and prospects of the energy sector, and the effects on growth of lagging infrastructure development. Part V looks at the social dimensions of development; it analyzes the evolution of income inequality, poverty, and economic insecurity in the region, the evolution of labor markets and the performance of the educational sector, as well as the evolution of social assistance programs and social security reforms in the region. The contributors are leading researchers that belong to different schools of economic thought and most come from countries throughout Latin America, representing a range of views and recognising the diversity of the region. This Handbook is a significant contribution to the field, and will be of interest to academics, graduate students and policy makers interested in economics, political economy, and public policy in Latin America and other developing economies. Contributors to this volume - Jose Antonio Ocampo, Columbia University Jaime Ros, University of Notre Dame Luis Bertola, Universidad de la Republica, Uruguay Mariano Tommasi, Universidad de San Andres, Argentina Martin Ardanaz, Columbia University Carlos Scartascini, Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) Nancy Birdsall, Center for Global Development Augusto de la Torre, World Bank Felipe Valencia Caicedo, World Bank Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira, Getulio Vargas Foundation Carlos de Miguel, ECLAC Osvaldo Sunkel, ECLAC Ricardo Ffrench-Davis, Universidad de Chile Stephany Griffith-Jones, Columbia University Roberto Frenkel, CEDES, Argentina Martin Rapetti, CEDES, Argentina Pablo Garcia, Central Bank of Chile Manuel Marfan, Central Bank of Chile Jose Maria Fanelli, CEDES, Argentina Guillermo Perry, Fedesarrollo Mauricio Cardenas, Brookings Institution Javier Santiso, OECD Development Centre Pablo Zoido, OECD Development Centre Diana Tussie, FLACSO, Argentina Paolo Giordano, Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) Robert Devlin, OAS Eduardo Lora, Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) Edmar Bacha, Institute of Economic Policy Studies, Casa das Garcas Albert Fishlow, University of California and Columbia University Francisco Rodriguez, UNDP Jose Gregorio Pineda, UNDP Joao Carlos Ferraz, BNDES, Brazil Michael Mortimore, ECLAC Marcia Tavares, ECLAC Kevin Gallagher, Boston University Roberto Porzecanski, Tufts University Alejandro Canales, Universidad de Guadalajara Ricardo Hausmann, Harvard University Mario Cimoli, ECLAC Gabriel Porcile, University of Parana Jose Gabriel Palma, University of Cambridge Salomon Salcedo, FAO Fernando Soto-Baquero, FAO Jose Graziano da Silva, FAO Rodrigo Castaneda, FAO Sergio Gomez, FAO Humberto Campodonico, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos Cesar Calderon, World Bank Luis Serven, World Bank Leonardo Gasparini, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata Nora Lustig, Tulane University Rebeca Grynspan, UNDP Luis Felipe Lopez Calva, UNDP Robert Vos, United Nations Victor Tokman, formerly ILO Maria Victoria Murillo, Columbia University Lucas Ronconi, CIPPEC Andrew Schrank, University of New Mexico Miguel Urquiola, Columbia University Francisco Ferreira, World Bank David Robalino, World Bank Andras Uthoff, Universidad de Chile
Este artículo estudia la disminución de la participación del trabajo en el ingreso (PLI) en México durante el periodo de 1990 a 2015. En su mayor parte, esta reducción puede ser explicada por ...disminuciones dentro de los principales sectores de la economía (entre ellos las manufacturas y los de bienes comerciables y no comerciables), más que por una recomposición del valor agregado hacia sectores que tienen bajas participaciones del trabajo en el ingreso. En contraste con la agricultura, en la que la pli cayó debido a un desplazamiento de la fuerza de trabajo desde el autoempleo hacia el trabajo asalariado, en otras importantes áreas de la economía la disminución de la PLI se explica por reducciones en el sector de empleo asalariado. Las estimaciones econométricas indican que disminuciones paralelas en la participación del trabajo y la productividad relativa en los bienes no comerciables, así como en la participación del trabajo en las manufacturas de los Estados Unidos, desempeñaron —todos— un papel importante en la reducción de la participación de los salarios en el sector manufacturero de México. Más generalmente, el análisis sugiere que el rezago de la productividad en el sector informal de bienes no comerciables, que es en sí un reflejo de la baja tasa agregada de crecimiento, es un factor crucial en la reducción de la PLI en los sectores formales. El artículo concluye con una discusión de posibles explicaciones para la paradoja de la lenta tasa de crecimiento económico en México a pesar del aumento en la participación de las ganancias en el ingreso.
Since the mid-1980s Mexico has implemented a radical reorientation of its development strategy away from state - led industrialization and trade protection. This reform has drastically reduced the ...role of the state in the economy in favour of market mechanisms, and changed the orientation of social policies towards targeting and decentralization. The article examines the effects of this reform on Mexico's social and economic development, and finds that its results have been far from stellar. Indeed, notwithstanding the reduction of inflation and the downsizing of the state, the economy has expanded at a slow rate way below its growth in needs. The author conclude that if Mexico is to succeed in its quest to enter a path of robust long - term development it will need to modify its social and economic policies.
This paper examines the evolution of the Mexican economy since the crisis of 2008-2009. It focuses on the main economic indicators of the period and then turns to the changes in economic policy ...adopted by Peña Nieto's government since late 2012 and the scope and shortcomings so far of these reforms. It then looks in detail at what happened in 2015, a year characterized by a deterioration of the external environment and by a number of puzzles. Finally, it addresses the short and medium term prospects of the economy under the present set of economic policies and the changes required to put the economy on a higher growth path.
Este artículo analiza la desaceleración del crecimiento en la economía mexicana durante los periodos de reforma y posreforma. Examina cuatro posible factores detrás de la desaceleración del ...crecimiento. Primero, el papel de la integración comercial internacional muestra que las reformas comerciales de los años ochenta y noventa fueron de hecho muy exitosas en estimular el crecimiento de las exportaciones y la apertura comercial aunque no en promover una pauta de especialización comercial dinámica. Segundo, la desaceleración del crecimiento de la productividad debe ser vista como una consecuencia y no una causa de la desaceleración del crecimiento en la medida en que la evolución del crecimiento de la productividad está estrechamente asociado a la expansión del subempleo en el sector terciario. Tercero, el análisis del papel de la formación de capital humano sugiere que los indicadores de educación y salud han estado mejorando durante el periodo reciente, en parte como consecuencia del bono demográfico, y no pueden ser responsables por la caída en el producto por trabajador presentada desde principios de los años ochenta. Por último, el artículo se centra en lo que se piensa que es el determinante primario de la desaceleración del crecimiento, la baja tasa de acumulación de capital físico. This paper discusses the growth slowdown of the Mexican economy during the reform and post reform periods. It addresses four possible factors behind the growth deceleration. First, the role of international trade integration showing that the trade policy reforms of the 1980s and 1990s were in fact very successful in enhancing export growth and trade openness but not in promoting a dynamic pattern of trade specialization. Second, the productivity growth slowdown arguing that this should be seen as a consequence rather than a cause of the growth deceleration as the evolution of productivity growth is closely associated to the expansion of tertiary underemployment. Third, the discussion of the role of human capital formation suggests that educational and health indicators have been improving during the recent period, partly as a consequence of the demographic bonus, and cannot be held responsible for the fall in output per worker that has taken place since the early 1980s. Finally, the paper focuses on what it believes is the primary determinant of the growth slowdown, the low rate of physical capital accumulation.
The central argument of this paper is that in pursuing low inflation as its single and exclusive goal, and given some characteristics of the Mexican economy – a large degree of trade openness, a ...relatively high pass through of exchange rate movements into prices, and a low direct sensitivity of aggregate demand to interest rates – monetary policy has generated a recurrent tendency toward real exchange rate appreciation with very adverse effects on economic growth. The paper also examines central bank’s intervention in the foreign exchange market and the effectiveness of sterilized intervention in affecting the real exchange rate and potentially overcoming the tendency to real appreciation.
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