Observed SST anomaly (SSTA) in the equatorial eastern Pacific exhibits an asymmetric evolution characteristic between El Niño and La Niña. While El Niño is characterized by a rapid decay after its ...peak and a fast phase transition to a cold episode in the following winter, La Niña is characterized by a weaker decay after its peak and a reintensification of cold SSTA in the second year. The relative roles of dynamic (wind field) and thermodynamic (heat flux) processes in causing the asymmetric evolutions are investigated through a mixed layer heat budget analysis. The result shows both dynamic and thermodynamic processes contribute to the evolution asymmetry. The former is related to asymmetric wind responses in the western Pacific, whereas the latter is associated with asymmetric cloud–radiation–SST and evaporation–SST feedbacks. A strong negative SSTA tendency occurs during El Niño decaying phase, compared to a much weaker positive SSTA tendency during La Niña decaying phase. Such a difference leads to an SSTA sign change for El Niño but no sign change for La Niña by the end of summer of the second year. A season-dependent coupled instability kicks in during northern fall, leading to the development of a La Niña by end of the second year for El Niño, but the reoccurrence of a La Niña episode by end of the second year for La Niña. The overall heat budget analysis during the entire ENSO evolutions indicates the thermodynamic process is as important as the dynamic process in causing the El Niño–La Niña evolution asymmetry. The fundamental difference of the current result with previous theories is further discussed.
The thermal effect of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) on the northern hemisphere climate has long been a hot topic of scientific research. However, the global effects of the TP heat source are still ...unclear. We investigate the teleconnection patterns coincident with the TP heat source in boreal summer using both observational data and numerical models including a linearized baroclinic model and an atmospheric general circulation model. The western TP shows the most intense variability in atmospheric heating and the most active connection to atmospheric circulations. The surface sensible heating component of the western TP heat source is associated with a high-latitude wave train propagating from North Japan to central North America through the Bering Sea and Canada. The radiative heating component is accompanied by a wavenumber-4 wave train over Eurasia. We focus on the global zonally-oriented pattern that is connected with the latent heat release from the western TP, referred to here as the TP–circumglobal teleconnection (TP-CGT). The TP-CGT pattern is triggered by the western TP latent heating in two parts starting from the TP: an eastward-propagating wave train trapped in the westerly jet stream and a westward Rossby wave response. The TP-CGT accounts for above 18% of the total variance of the circumglobal teleconnection pattern and modulates mid-latitude precipitation by superimposition. The western TP is the key region in which diabatic heating can initiate the two atmospheric responses concurrently, and the heating over northeastern Asia or the Indian Peninsula is unable to induce the circumglobal pattern directly. The unique geographical location and strong tropospheric heating also make the western TP as a “transit area” of transferring the indirect impact of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) to the TP-CGT. These results enhance our understanding of the relationship between the circumglobal teleconnection and the ISM and is helpful for improving the prediction of the circumglobal teleconnection variability.
Extreme cold events (ECEs) on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) exert serious impacts on agriculture and animal husbandry and are important drivers of ecological and environmental changes. We investigate the ...temporal and spatial characteristics of the ECEs on the TP and the possible effects of Arctic sea ice. The daily observed minimum air temperature at 73 meteorological stations on the TP during 1980–2018 and the BCC_AGCM3_MR model are used. Our results show that the main mode of winter ECEs over the TP exhibits the same spatial variation and interannual variability across the whole region and is affected by two wave trains originating from the Arctic. The southern wave train is controlled by the sea ice in the Beaufort Sea. It initiates in the Norwegian Sea, and then passes through the North Atlantic Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and the Bay of Bengal along the subtropical westerly jet stream. It enters the TP from the south and brings warm, humid air from the oceans. By contrast, the northern wave train is controlled by the sea ice in the Laptev Sea. It originates from the Barents and Kara seas, passes through Lake Baikal, and enters the TP from the north, bringing dry and cold air. A decrease in the sea ice in the Beaufort Sea causes positive potential height anomalies in the Arctic. This change enhances the pressure gradient between the Artic and the mid-latitudes, leading to westerly winds in the northern TP, which block the intrusion of cold air into the south. By contrast, a decrease in the sea ice in the Laptev Sea causes negative potential height anomalies in the Artic. This change reduces the pressure gradient between the Artic and the mid-latitudes, leading to easterly winds to the north of the TP, which favors the southward intrusion of cold polar air. A continuous decrease in the amount of sea ice in the Beaufort Sea would reduce the frequency of ECEs over the TP and further aggravate TP warming in winter.
Although slower translation speed can induce a larger amount of local rainfall for an individual tropical cyclone (TC), whether change in total TC precipitation (TCP) affecting China is related to TC ...translation speed in the satellite era remains unclear. Based on multiple TC best-track datasets and a reanalysis dataset, we find a significant increasing trend in total TCP over two regions of southern China during 1980-2018. This upward trend can be attributed to the enhancing atmospheric water vapor content and moisture transport over southern China, however, TC intensity, frequency, and translation speed have no contributions. Given the potential linkage between the increasing atmospheric water vapor content over southern China and the western Pacific warming under global warming, our results suggest a likely role of anthropogenic global warming in the increasing TCP over southern China during the past 4 decades.
In this study, the long-term trend of water vapor over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in boreal summer is investigated by using observation and reanalysis data from 1979 to 2019. The historical experiment ...simulations of 19 models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) are evaluated, and the future variation tendency under four emission scenarios is projected. The results indicate that the water vapor content and the net water vapor budget over the TP show notable increasing trends, which are mainly manifested by a significant increase in the net water vapor import and a significant decrease in the water vapor export on the eastern boundary of the TP. This is mainly due to an anomalous anticyclone from Lake Baikal to the Mongolian Plateau. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble can well simulate the variation characteristics of the TP net water vapor budget. The projection results indicate that by the end of the twenty-first century, the water vapor content, the net water vapor import and precipitation over the TP will increase. Under a high-emissions scenario and compared with the current period (1991–2014), these three variables will increase by 47.99%, 59.77% and 18.59% in the long term (2081–2100), respectively. The significant enhancement of meridional water vapor transport over the northern TP may be the main reason for the increase in humidity over the TP.
In this paper, a scheme of dual-Doppler radar wind analysis based on a three-dimensional variational method is proposed and performed in two steps. First, the horizontal wind field is simultaneously ...recovered through minimizing a cost function defined as a radial observation term with the standard conjugate gradient method, avoiding a weighting parameter specification step. Compared with conventional dual-Doppler wind synthesis approaches, this variational method minimizes errors caused by interpolation from radar observation to analysis grid in the iterative solution process, which is one of the main sources of errors. Then, through the accelerated Liebmann method, the vertical velocity is further re-estimated as an extra step by solving the Poisson equation with impermeable conditions imposed at the ground and near the tropopause. The Poisson equation defined by the second derivative of the vertical velocity is derived from the mass continuity equation. Compared with the method proposed by O’Brien, this method is less sensitive to the uncertainty of the boundary conditions and has better stability and reliability. Furthermore, the method proposed in this paper is applied to Doppler radar observation of a squall line process. It is shown that the retrieved vertical wind profile agrees well with the vertical profile obtained with the velocity—azimuth display (VAD) method, and the retrieved radial velocity as well as the analyzed positive and negative velocity centers and horizontal wind shear of the squall line are in accord with radar observations. There is a good correspondence between the divergence field of the derived wind field and the vertical velocity. And, the horizontal and vertical circulations within and around the squall line, as well as strong updrafts, the associated downdrafts, and associated rear inflow of the bow echo, are analyzed well. It is worth mentioning that the variational method in this paper can be applied to simultaneously synthesize the three-dimensional wind field from multiple-Doppler radar observations.
The particle linear depolarization ratio (PLDR) and single scatter albedo (SSA) in 1020 nm from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) level 2.0 dataset was utilized among 52 stations to identify dust ...and dust dominated aerosols (DD), pollution dominated mixture (PDM), strongly absorbing aerosols (SA) and weakly absorbing aerosols (WA), investigate their spatial and temporal distribution, net radiative forcing and radiative forcing efficiency in global range, and further compare with VIIRS Deep Blue Production. The conclusion about net radiative forcing suggests that the high values of radiative forcing from dust and dust dominated aerosols, pollution dominated mixture both mainly come from western Africa. Strongly absorbing aerosols in South Africa and India contribute greatly to the net radiative forcing and the regions with relative high values of weakly absorbing aerosols are mainly located at East Asia and India. Lastly, the observation of VIIRS Deep Blue satellite monthly averaged products depicts the characteristics about spatial distribution of four kinds of aerosol well, the result from ground-based observation presents great significant to validate the measurements from remote sensing technology.
An enhanced Warm Arctic—Cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern has been a notable feature in recent winters of the Northern Hemisphere. However, divergent results between model and observational studies of the ...WACE still remain. This study evaluates the performance of 39 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating the WACE pattern in winter of 1980–2014 and explores the key factors causing the differences in the simulation capability among the models. The results show that the multimodel ensemble (MME) can better simulate the spatial distribution of the WACE pattern than most single models. Models that can/cannot simulate both the climatology and the standard deviation of the Eurasian winter surface air temperature well, especially the latter, usually can/cannot simulate the WACE pattern well. This mainly results from the different abilities of the models to simulate the range and intensity of the warm anomaly in the Barents Sea—Kara seas (BKS) region. Further analysis shows that a good performance of the models in the BKS area is usually related to their ability to simulate location and persistence of Ural blocking (UB), which can transport heat to the BKS region, causing the warm Arctic, and strengthen the westerly trough downstream, cooling central Eurasia. Therefore, simulation of UB is key and significantly affects the model’s performance in simulating the WACE.
Short-duration snow bursts with heavy snow represent one type of hazardous weather in winter which can be easily missed by the winter weather warnings but often results in great hazards. In this ...paper, the mechanism for the occurrence of such events was investigated with the aid of a localized terrain-influenced snow burst event in Northeast China. The snow burst was produced by an eastward-moving cold-frontal snowband which encountered the downstream complex terrain of the Changbai Mountains and intensified. To ascertain the role of orography on the snow burst, numerical experiments, together with a parallel sensitivity experiment removing Changbai Mountains, were performed to attempt to distinguish the contributions of cold-frontal system and orographic effects to produce the heavy snow. Diagnosis showed that without the influence of Changbai Mountains, the release of conditional instability (CI) and inertial instability (II) within a weak frontogenetical environment was responsible for the snowband maintenance. Orographic effects played important roles in enhancing the snowband and increasing the snowfall intensities. The enhancement mechanism was related to the interactions of the cold-frontal snowband and the topography. On the one hand, orographic frontogenesis and persistent ascent, created by orographic gravity waves over the terrain, greatly enhanced the orographic lifting. The intensification of the lifting promoted the release of CI and thus enhanced the snowfall. On the other hand, pre-existing orographic instabilities were released due to the passing of the cold-frontal snowband, which could also serve to intensify the snowband over terrain and thus increase the snowfall.
The current study explores the use of an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to continuously assimilate high-resolution Doppler radar data during ...the peak-intensity stage of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Vicente (2012) before landfall. The WRF-EnKF analyses and forecasts along with the ensembles initialized from the EnKF analyses at different times were used to examine the subsequent evolution, three-dimensional (3D) structure, predictability, and dynamics of the storm. Vicente was an intense western North Pacific tropical cyclone that made landfall around 2000 UTC 23 July 2012 near the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong Province, China, with a peak 10-m wind speed around 44 m s super(-1) along with considerable inland flooding after a rapid intensification process. With vortex- and dynamics-dependent background error covariance estimated by the short-term ensemble forecasts, it was found that the WRF-EnKF could efficiently assimilate the high temporal and spatial resolution 3D radar radial velocity to improve the depiction of the TC inner-core structure of Vicente, which in turn improved the forecasts of the track and intensity along with the associated heavy precipitation inland. The ensemble forecasts and sensitivity analyses were further used to explore the leading dynamics that controlled the prediction and predictability of track, intensity, and rainfall during and after its landfall. Results showed that TC Vicente's intensity and precipitation forecasts were largely dependent on the initial relationship between TC intensity and location and the initial steering flow.
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