The Third Plague Pandemic in Europe Bramanti, Barbara; Dean, Katharine R; Walløe, Lars ...
Proceedings - Royal Society. Biological sciences/Proceedings - Royal Society. Biological Sciences,
04/2019, Volume:
286, Issue:
1901
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Plague has a long history on the European continent, with evidence of the disease dating back to the Stone Age. Plague epidemics in Europe during the First and Second Pandemics, including the Black ...Death, are infamous for their widespread mortality and lasting social and economic impact. Yet, Europe still experienced plague outbreaks during the Third Pandemic, which began in China and spread globally at the end of the nineteenth century. The digitization of international records of notifiable diseases, including plague, has enabled us to retrace the introductions of the disease to Europe from the earliest reported cases in 1899, to its disappearance in the 1940s. Using supplemental literature, we summarize the potential sources of plague in Europe and the transmission of the disease, including the role of rats. Finally, we discuss the international efforts aimed at prevention and intervention measures, namely improved hygiene and sanitation, that ultimately led to the disappearance of plague in Europe.
Collapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book ...example of the consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of these nearly synchronous collapses are still debated. Moreover, it is still unclear why rebuilding of collapsed fish stocks such as cod is often slow or absent. Here, we apply the stochastic cusp model, based on catastrophe theory, and show that collapse and recovery of cod stocks are potentially driven by the specific interaction between exploitation pressure and environmental drivers. Our statistical modelling study demonstrates that for most of the cod stocks, ocean warming could induce a nonlinear discontinuous relationship between fishing pressure and stock size, which would explain hysteresis in their response to reduced exploitation pressure. Our study suggests further that a continuing increase in ocean temperatures will probably limit productivity and hence future fishing opportunities for most cod stocks of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, our study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the importance of climate and fishing effects on commercially exploited fish stocks, highlighting the importance of considering discontinuous dynamics in holistic ecosystem-based management approaches, particularly under climate change.
Research is a highly competitive profession where evaluation plays a central role; journals are ranked and individuals are evaluated based on their publication number, the number of times they are ...cited and their
-index. Yet such evaluations are often done in inappropriate ways that are damaging to individual careers, particularly for young scholars, and to the profession. Furthermore, as with all indices, people can play games to better their scores. This has resulted in the incentive structure of science increasingly mimicking economic principles, but rather than a monetary gain, the incentive is a higher score. To ensure a diversity of cultural perspectives and individual experiences, we gathered a team of academics in the fields of ecology and evolution from around the world and at different career stages. We first examine how authorship,
-index of individuals and journal impact factors are being used and abused. Second, we speculate on the consequences of the continued use of these metrics with the hope of sparking discussions that will help our fields move in a positive direction. We would like to see changes in the incentive systems, rewarding quality research and guaranteeing transparency. Senior faculty should establish the ethical standards, mentoring practices and institutional evaluation criteria to create the needed changes.
Hantaviruses can cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in the Americas and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Eurasia. In recent decades, repeated outbreaks of hantavirus disease ...have led to public concern and have created a global public health burden. Hantavirus spillover from natural hosts into human populations could be considered an ecological process, in which environmental forces, behavioral determinants of exposure, and dynamics at the human-animal interface affect human susceptibility and the epidemiology of the disease. In this review, we summarize the progress made in understanding hantavirus epidemiology and rodent reservoir population biology. We mainly focus on three species of rodent hosts with longitudinal studies of sufficient scale: the striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius, the main reservoir host for Hantaan virus HTNV, which causes HFRS) in Asia, the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus, the main reservoir host for Sin Nombre virus SNV, which causes HPS) in North America, and the bank vole (Myodes glareolus, the main reservoir host for Puumala virus PUUV, which causes HFRS) in Europe. Moreover, we discuss the influence of ecological factors on human hantavirus disease outbreaks and provide an overview of research perspectives.
Significance
The variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is important for the functioning of ecological and societal systems at regional to continental scales, but the long-term evolution and ...interannual variability of this system is not well understood. Here, we present a stable isotope–based reconstruction of ASM variability covering 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a gradual drying trend, a rapid drop in mean annual precipitation (>40%) toward persistently drier conditions occurred in ∼1675 BCE. This megadrought caused regional forest deterioration and enhanced aeolian activity affecting Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ∼2000 BCE triggered waves of human migration and societal transformation in northern China, which contributed to the alteration of spatial pattern of ancient civilizations.
Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability and its long-term ecological and societal impacts extending back to Neolithic times are poorly understood due to a lack of high-resolution climate proxy data. Here, we present a precisely dated and well-calibrated tree-ring stable isotope chronology from the Tibetan Plateau with 1- to 5-y resolution that reflects high- to low-frequency ASM variability from 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a persistent drying trend since the mid-Holocene, a rapid decrease in moisture availability between ∼2000 and ∼1500 BCE caused a dry hydroclimatic regime from ∼1675 to ∼1185 BCE, with mean precipitation estimated at 42 ± 4% and 5 ± 2% lower than during the mid-Holocene and the instrumental period, respectively. This second-millennium–BCE megadrought marks the mid-to late Holocene transition, during which regional forests declined and enhanced aeolian activity affected northern Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ∼2000 BCE contributed to the shift of Neolithic cultures in northern China and likely triggered human migration and societal transformation.
Abstract
Climate change is projected to increase the aridity of semi-arid ecosystems, including Mongolian grasslands (MG), which provide ecosystem services that support food supply and pastoralist ...lifestyle. Here, we conducted a grid-scale (0.5° × 0.5°) probabilistic risk assessment of MG under climate change for 40 years (1976–2015) based on probability theory. We evaluated changes of risk (impacts) and vulnerability of MG to drought between the recent two decades R20 = 1996–2015 and the previous two decades P20 = 1976–1995. The risk is quantified as the product of the probability of hazardous drought and ecosystem vulnerability. The probability of hazardous drought is defined from the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index. Vulnerability is defined as the expected differences of key ecosystem variables between years with and without hazardous conditions. The ecosystem variables are productivity (peak aboveground biomass, net primary productivity, and leaf area index) and root-zone plant-available soil moisture, simulated with a process-based vegetation model Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems-Grassland Management validated with field observations of biomass and soil moisture. Results reveal that MG experienced more frequent hazardous droughts with rapid warming and slight drying during R20 aggravated by ever-increasing grazing intensity (34% compared to P20), which resulted in a reduction in soil water availability and grassland productivity, particularly in northeastern areas (20%–65%). The risk of drought to productivity increased by 10% between P20 and R20 over extended areas, particularly in northcentral and northeast Mongolia. The increase in the risk to MG was mainly caused by climate change-induced increase in the probability of hazardous drought and, to a lesser extent, by the increasing vulnerability. Recent droughts modify the risk to grasslands, particularly in northcentral and northeast Mongolia, suggesting that these regions need strategic management for both adaptation and ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change impacts.
While the mitogenome tree reflects historical mtDNA replacement, the nuclear genome phylogeny reveals evolutionary relationships supporting the hypothesis that D. hudsonius with primitive molar ...morphology is a relic of the first colonization from Eurasia to North America.
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•Conflicting nuclear and mitogenome phylogenies of collared lemmings.•Mitogenome tree reflects replacement between D. groenlandicus and D. hudsonius.•The nuclear genome phylogeny reveals species cladogenesis.
Collared lemmings (Dicrostonyx) are cold adapted rodents, keystone animals in the tundra communities and the model taxa in studies of Arctic genetic diversity and Quaternary paleontology. We examined mitochondrial and nuclear genomic variation to reconstruct phylogenetic relationships among the Eurasian D. torquatus and North American D. groenlandicus, D. hudsonius and evaluate biogeographic hypothesis of the two colonization events of North America from Eurasia based on morphological variation in dental traits. The nuclear and mitogenome phylogenies support reciprocal monophyly of each species but reveal conflicting relationships among species. The mitogenome tree likely reflects ancient mitochondrial replacement between currently isolated D. groenlandicus and D. hudsonius. The nuclear genome phylogeny reveals species cladogenesis and supports the hypothesis that D. hudsonius with primitive and distinct molar morphology represents a relic of the first migration event from Eurasia to North America. Species widely distributed in the North American Arctic, D. groenlandicus, with advanced dental morphology originated from a later colonization event across the Bering Land Bridge. This study shows ancient mitochondrial capture between two Arctic species and emphasizes the importance of multilocus approaches for phylogenetic inference.
Ecological Effects of Climate Fluctuations Nils Chr. Stenseth; Mysterud, Atle; Ottersen, Geir ...
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
08/2002, Volume:
297, Issue:
5585
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Climate influences a variety of ecological processes. These effects operate through local weather parameters such as temperature, wind, rain, snow, and ocean currents, as well as interactions among ...these. In the temperate zone, local variations in weather are often coupled over large geographic areas through the transient behavior of atmospheric planetary-scale waves. These variations drive temporally and spatially averaged exchanges of heat, momentum, and water vapor that ultimately determine growth, recruitment, and migration patterns. Recently, there have been several studies of the impact of large-scale climatic forcing on ecological systems. We review how two of the best-known climate phenomena-the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation-affect ecological patterns and processes in both marine and terrestrial systems.
Climate variation drives dengue dynamics Xu, Lei; Stige, Leif C.; Chan, Kung-Sik ...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS,
01/2017, Volume:
114, Issue:
1
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Dengue, a viral infection transmitted between people by mosquitoes, is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world. Here, we report the analyses covering 11 y (2005–2015) from the city of ...Guangzhou in southern China. Using the first 8 y of data to develop an ecologically based model for the dengue system, we reliably predict the following 3 y of dengue dynamics—years with exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks. We demonstrate that climate conditions, through the effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and dengue transmission rate, play key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of dengue incidence in the human population. Our study thus contributes to a better understanding of dengue dynamics and provides a predictive tool for preventive dengue reduction strategies.
Significance The second plague pandemic in medieval Europe started with the Black Death epidemic of 1347–1353 and killed millions of people over a time span of four centuries. It is commonly thought ...that after its initial introduction from Asia, the disease persisted in Europe in rodent reservoirs until it eventually disappeared. Here, we show that climate-driven outbreaks of Yersinia pestis in Asian rodent plague reservoirs are significantly associated with new waves of plague arriving into Europe through its maritime trade network with Asia. This association strongly suggests that the bacterium was continuously reimported into Europe during the second plague pandemic, and offers an alternative explanation to putative European rodent reservoirs for how the disease could have persisted in Europe for so long.
The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis , after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe.
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