Atmospheric compositions can provide powerful diagnostics of formation and migration histories of planetary systems. We investigate constraints on atmospheric abundances of H2O, Na, and K, in a ...sample of transiting exoplanets using the latest transmission spectra and new H2 broadened opacities of Na and K. Our sample of 19 exoplanets spans from cool mini-Neptunes to hot Jupiters, with equilibrium temperatures between ∼300 and 2700 K. Using homogeneous Bayesian retrievals we report atmospheric abundances of Na, K, and H2O, and their detection significances, confirming 6 planets with strong Na detections, 6 with K, and 14 with H2O. We find a mass-metallicity trend of increasing H2O abundances with decreasing mass, spanning generally substellar values for gas giants and stellar/superstellar for Neptunes and mini-Neptunes. However, the overall trend in H2O abundances, from mini-Neptunes to hot Jupiters, is significantly lower than the mass-metallicity relation for carbon in the solar system giant planets and similar predictions for exoplanets. On the other hand, the Na and K abundances for the gas giants are stellar or superstellar, consistent with each other, and generally consistent with the solar system metallicity trend. The H2O abundances in hot gas giants are likely due to low oxygen abundances relative to other elements rather than low overall metallicities, and provide new constraints on their formation mechanisms. The differing trends in the abundances of species argue against the use of chemical equilibrium models with metallicity as one free parameter in atmospheric retrievals, as different elements can be differently enhanced.
Abstract
Over the last decade exoplanetary transmission spectra have yielded an unprecedented understanding about the physical and chemical nature of planets outside our solar system. Physical and ...chemical knowledge is mainly extracted via fitting competing models to spectroscopic data, based on some goodness-of-fit metric. However, current employed metrics shed little light on how exactly a given model is failing at the individual data point level and where it could be improved. As the quality of our data and complexity of our models increases, there is a need to better understand which observations are driving our model interpretations. Here we present the application of Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation to assess the performance of exoplanet atmospheric models and compute the expected log pointwise predictive density (elpd
LOO
). elpd
LOO
estimates the out-of-sample predictive accuracy of an atmospheric model at data-point resolution, providing interpretable model criticism. We introduce and demonstrate this method on synthetic Hubble Space Telescope transmission spectra of a hot Jupiter. We apply elpd
LOO
to interpret current observations of HAT-P-41 b and assess the reliability of recent inferences of H
−
in its atmosphere. We find that previous detections of H
−
are dependent solely on a single data point. This new metric for exoplanetary retrievals complements and expands our repertoire of tools to better understand the limits of our models and data. elpd
LOO
provides the means to interrogate models at the single-data-point level, which will help in robustly interpreting the imminent wealth of spectroscopic information coming from JWST.
ABSTRACT
The class of ultra-hot Jupiters comprises giant exoplanets undergoing intense irradiation from their host stars. They have proved to be a particularly interesting population for their ...orbital and atmospheric properties. One such planet, WASP-121b, is in a highly misaligned orbit close to its Roche limit, and its atmosphere exhibits a thermal inversion. These properties make WASP-121b an interesting target for additional atmospheric characterization. In this paper, we present analyses of archival high-resolution optical spectra obtained during transits of WASP-121b. We model the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect and the Centre-to-Limb Variation and find that they do not significantly affect the transmission spectrum in this case. However, we discuss scenarios where these effects warrant more careful treatment by modelling the WASP-121 system and varying its properties. We report a new detection of atmospheric absorption from H α in the planet with a transit depth of $1.87\pm 0.11{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$. We further confirm a previous detection of the Na i doublet, and report a new detection of Fe i via cross-correlation with a model template. We attribute the H α absorption to an extended Hydrogen atmosphere, potentially undergoing escape, and the Fe i to equilibrium chemistry at the planetary photosphere. These detections help to constrain the composition and chemical processes in the atmosphere of WASP-121b.
Exoplanets orbiting M-dwarfs present a valuable opportunity for their detection and atmospheric characterization. This is evident from recent inferences of H2O in such atmospheres, including that of ...the habitable-zone exoplanet K2-18b. With a bulk density between Earth and Neptune, K2-18b may be expected to possess a H/He envelope. However, the extent of such an envelope and the thermodynamic conditions of the interior remain unexplored. In the present work, we investigate the atmospheric and interior properties of K2-18b based on its bulk properties and its atmospheric transmission spectrum. We constrain the atmosphere to be H2-rich with a H2O volume mixing ratio of 0.02%-14.8%, consistent with previous studies, and find a depletion of CH4 and NH3, indicating chemical disequilibrium. We do not conclusively detect clouds/hazes in the observable atmosphere. We use the bulk parameters and retrieved atmospheric properties to constrain the internal structure and thermodynamic conditions in the planet. The constraints on the interior allow multiple scenarios between rocky worlds with massive H/He envelopes and water worlds with thin envelopes. We constrain the mass fraction of the H/He envelope to be 6%; spanning 10−5 for a predominantly water world to ∼6% for a pure iron interior. The thermodynamic conditions at the surface of the H2O layer range from the supercritical to liquid phases, with a range of solutions allowing for habitable conditions on K2-18b. Our results demonstrate that the potential for habitable conditions is not necessarily restricted to Earth-like rocky exoplanets.
Abstract
Eclipse mapping is a technique for inferring 2D brightness maps of transiting exoplanets from the shape of an eclipse light curve. With JWST’s unmatched precision, eclipse mapping is now ...possible for a large number of exoplanets. However, eclipse mapping has only been applied to two planets, and the nuances of fitting eclipse maps are not yet fully understood. Here, we use Leave-one-out Cross Validation (LOO-CV) to investigate eclipse mapping, with application to a JWST NIRISS/SOSS observation of the ultrahot Jupiter WASP-18b. LOO-CV is a technique that provides insight into the out-of-sample predictive power of models on a data-point-by-data-point basis. We show that constraints on planetary brightness patterns behave as expected, with large-scale variations driven by the phase-curve variation in the light curve and smaller-scale structures constrained by the eclipse ingress and egress. For WASP-18b we show that the need for higher model complexity (smaller-scale features) is driven exclusively by the shape of the eclipse ingress and egress. We use LOO-CV to investigate the relationship between planetary brightness map components when mapping under a positive-flux constraint to better understand the need for complex models. Finally, we use LOO-CV to understand the degeneracy between the competing “hot spot” and “plateau” brightness map models of WASP-18b, showing that the plateau model is driven by the ingress shape and the hot spot model is driven by the egress shape, but preference for neither model is due to outliers or unmodeled signals. Based on this analysis, we make recommendations for the use of LOO-CV in future eclipse-mapping studies.
Ultra-hot Jupiters (UHJs), giant exoplanets with equilibrium temperatures above 2000 K, are ideal laboratories for studying metal compositions of planetary atmospheres. At these temperatures the ...thermal dissociation of metal-rich molecules into their constituent elements makes these atmospheres conducive for elemental characterization. Several elements, mostly ionized metals, have been detected in UHJs recently using high-resolution transit spectroscopy. Even though a number of neutral transition metals (e.g., Fe, Ti, V, Cr) are expected to be strong sources of optical/near-ultraviolet (NUV) opacity and, hence, influence radiative processes in the lower atmospheres of UHJs, only Fe i has been detected to date. We conduct a systematic search for atomic species in the UHJ WASP-121 b. Using theoretical models we present a metric to predict the atomic species likely to be detectable in such planets with high-resolution transmission spectroscopy. We search for the predicted species in observations of WASP-121 b and report the first detections of neutral transition metals Cr i and V i in an exoplanet at 3.6 and 4.5 significance, respectively. We confirm previous detections of Fe i and Fe ii. Whereas Fe ii was detected previously in the NUV, we detect it in the optical. We infer that the neutral elements Fe i, V i, and Cr i are present in the lower atmosphere, as predicted by thermochemical equilibrium, while Fe ii is a result of photoionization in the upper atmosphere. Our study highlights the rich chemical diversity of UHJs.
Abstract The two prevailing planet formation scenarios, core accretion and disk instability, predict distinct planetary mass–metallicity relations. Yet, the detection of this trend remains ...challenging due to inadequate data on planet atmosphere abundance and inhomogeneities in both planet and host stellar abundance measurements. Here we analyze high-resolution spectra for the host stars of 19 transiting exoplanets to derive the C, O, Na, S, and K abundances, including planetary types from cool mini-Neptunes to hot Jupiters ( T eq ∼ 300–2700 K; planet radius ∼0.1–2 R J ). Our Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the current data set, updated based on Welbanks et al., is unable to distinguish between a linear relation and an independent distribution model for the abundance-mass correlation for water, Na, or K. To detect a trend with strong evidence (Bayes factor > 10) at the 2 σ confidence interval, we recommend a minimum sample of 58 planets with Hubble Space Telescope measurements of water abundances coupled with O/H of the host stars, or 45 planets at the JWST precision. Coupled with future JWST or ground-based high-resolution data, this well-characterized sample of planets with precise host-star abundances constitute an important ensemble of planets to further probe the abundance-mass correlation.
Abstract A key goal of exoplanet spectroscopy is to measure atmospheric properties, such as abundances of chemical species, in order to connect them to our understanding of atmospheric physics and ...planet formation. In this new era of high-quality JWST data, it is paramount that these measurement methods are robust. When comparing atmospheric models to observations, multiple candidate models may produce reasonable fits to the data. Typically, conclusions are reached by selecting the best-performing model according to some metric. This ignores model uncertainty in favor of specific model assumptions, potentially leading to measured atmospheric properties that are overconfident and/or incorrect. In this paper, we compare three ensemble methods for addressing model uncertainty by combining posterior distributions from multiple analyses: Bayesian model averaging, a variant of Bayesian model averaging using leave-one-out predictive densities, and stacking of predictive distributions. We demonstrate these methods by fitting the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) + Spitzer transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter HD 209458b using models with different cloud and haze prescriptions. All of our ensemble methods lead to uncertainties on retrieved parameters that are larger but more realistic and consistent with physical and chemical expectations. Since they have not typically accounted for model uncertainty, uncertainties of retrieved parameters from HST spectra have likely been underreported. We recommend stacking as the most robust model combination method. Our methods can be used to combine results from independent retrieval codes and from different models within one code. They are also widely applicable to other exoplanet analysis processes, such as combining results from different data reductions.
Abstract
TOI-270 d is a temperate sub-Neptune discovered by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) around a bright (
J
= 9.1 mag) M3V host star. With an approximate radius of 2
R
⊕
and ...equilibrium temperature of 350 K, TOI-270 d is one of the most promising small exoplanets for atmospheric characterization using transit spectroscopy. Here we present a primary transit observation of TOI-270 d made with the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) spectrograph across the 1.126–1.644
μ
m wavelength range, and a 95% credible upper limit of 8.2 × 10
−14
erg s
−1
cm
−2
Å
−1
arcsec
−2
for the stellar Ly
α
emission obtained using the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph. The transmission spectrum derived from the TESS and WFC3 data provides evidence for molecular absorption by a hydrogen-rich atmosphere at 4
σ
significance relative to a featureless spectrum. The strongest evidence for any individual absorber is obtained for H
2
O, which is favored at 3
σ
significance. When retrieving on the WFC3 data alone and allowing for the possibility of a heterogeneous stellar brightness profile, the detection significance of H
2
O is reduced to 2.8
σ
. Further observations are therefore required to robustly determine the atmospheric composition of TOI-270 d and assess the impact of stellar heterogeneity. If confirmed, our findings would make TOI-270 d one of the smallest and coolest exoplanets to date with detected atmospheric spectral features.
We present the transmission spectrum of the original transiting hot Jupiter HD 209458b from 2.3 to 5.1 μm as observed with the NIRCam instrument on the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). Previous ...studies of HD 209458b’s atmosphere have given conflicting results on the abundance of H2O and the presence of carbon- and nitrogen-bearing species, which have significant ramifications on the inferences of the planet’s metallicity (M/H) and carbon-to-oxygen (C/O) ratio. We detect strong features of H2O and CO2 in the JWST transmission spectrum, which when interpreted using a retrieval that assumes thermochemical equilibrium and fractional gray cloud opacity yields 3−1+4× solar metallicity and C/O = 0.11−0.06+0.12. The derived metallicity is consistent with the atmospheric metallicity–planet mass trend observed in solar gas giants. The low C/O ratio suggests that this planet has undergone significant contamination by evaporating planetesimals while migrating inward. We are also able to place upper limits on the abundances of CH4, C2H2, and HCN of log(χCH4) = −5.6, log(χC2H2) = −5.7, and log(χHCN) = −5.1, which are in tension with the recent claim of a detection of these species using ground-based cross-correlation spectroscopy. We find that HD 209458b has a weaker CO2 feature size than WASP-39b when comparing their scale-height-normalized transmission spectra. On the other hand, the size of HD 209458b’s H2O feature is stronger, thus reinforcing the low C/O inference.
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