Reducing colorectal cancer incidence and mortality through early detection would improve efficacy if targeted. We developed a colorectal cancer risk prediction model incorporating personal, family, ...genetic, and environmental risk factors to enhance prevention.
A familial risk profile (FRP) was calculated to summarize individuals' risk based on detailed cancer family history (FH), family structure, probabilities of mutation in major colorectal cancer susceptibility genes, and a polygenic component. We developed risk models, including individuals' FRP or binary colorectal cancer FH, and colorectal cancer risk factors collected at enrollment using population-based colorectal cancer cases (
= 4,445) and controls (
= 3,967) recruited by the Colon Cancer Family Registry Cohort (CCFRC). Model validation used CCFRC follow-up data for population-based (
= 12,052) and clinic-based (
= 5,584) relatives with no cancer history at recruitment to assess model calibration expected/observed rate ratio (E/O) and discrimination area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC).
The E/O 95% confidence interval (CI) for FRP models for population-based relatives were 1.04 (0.74-1.45) for men and 0.86 (0.64-1.20) for women, and for clinic-based relatives were 1.15 (0.87-1.58) for men and 1.04 (0.76-1.45) for women. The age-adjusted AUCs (95% CI) for FRP models for population-based relatives were 0.69 (0.60-0.78) for men and 0.70 (0.62-0.77) for women, and for clinic-based relatives were 0.77 (0.69-0.84) for men and 0.68 (0.60-0.76) for women. The incremental values of AUC for FRP over FH models for population-based relatives were 0.08 (0.01-0.15) for men and 0.10 (0.04-0.16) for women, and for clinic-based relatives were 0.11 (0.05-0.17) for men and 0.11 (0.06-0.17) for women.
Both models calibrated well. The FRP-based model provided better risk stratification and risk discrimination than the FH-based model.
Our findings suggest detailed FH may be useful for targeted risk-based screening and clinical management.
Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of cancer-related death in Europe and the United States. Survival is strongly related to stage at diagnosis and population-based screening reduces ...colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. Stratifying the population by risk offers the potential to improve the efficiency of screening. In this systematic review we searched Medline, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library for primary research studies reporting or validating models to predict future risk of primary colorectal cancer for asymptomatic individuals. A total of 12,808 papers were identified from the literature search and nine through citation searching. Fifty-two risk models were included. Where reported (n = 37), half the models had acceptable-to-good discrimination (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUROC >0.7) in the derivation sample. Calibration was less commonly assessed (n = 21), but overall acceptable. In external validation studies, 10 models showed acceptable discrimination (AUROC 0.71-0.78). These include two with only three variables (age, gender, and BMI; age, gender, and family history of colorectal cancer). A small number of prediction models developed from case-control studies of genetic biomarkers also show some promise but require further external validation using population-based samples. Further research should focus on the feasibility and impact of incorporating such models into stratified screening programmes.
Mucinous differentiation is associated with both CpG island methylator phenotype and microsatellite instability in colorectal cancer. The mucinous phenotype derives from abundant expression of the ...colonic goblet cell mucin, MUC2, and de novo expression of gastric foveolar mucin, MUC5AC. We, therefore, investigated the protein expression levels of MUC2 and MUC5AC, as well as MUC5B and MUC6, in molecular subtypes of colorectal cancer. Seven-hundred and twenty-two incident colorectal carcinomas occurring in 702 participants of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study were characterized for methylator status, MLH1 methylation, somatic BRAF and KRAS mutations, microsatellite-instability status, MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, and PMS2 mismatch repair, and p53 protein expression, and their histopathology was reviewed. Protein expression levels of MUC2, MUC5AC, MUC5B, MUC6, and the putative mucin regulator CDX2 were compared with molecular and clinicopathological features of colorectal cancers using odds ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals. MUC2 overexpression (>25% positive tumor cells) was observed in 33% colorectal cancers, MUC5B expression in 53%, and de novo MUC5AC and MUC6 expression in 50% and 39%, respectively. Co-expression of two or more of the mucins was commonly observed. Expression of MUC2, MUC5AC and MUC6 was strongly associated with features associated with tumorigenesis via the serrated neoplasia pathway, including methylator positivity, somatic BRAF p.V600E mutation, and mismatch repair deficiency, as well as proximal location, poor differentiation, lymphocytic response, and increased T stage (all P<0.001). Overexpression was observed in tumors with and without mucinous differentiation. There were inverse associations between expression of all four mucins and p53 overexpression. CDX2 expression was inversely associated with MUC2, MUC5AC and MUC6 expression. Our results suggest that, in methylator-positive tumors, mucin genes on chromosome 11p15.5 region undergo increased expression via mechanisms other than direct regulation by CDX2.
ABSTRACT
We studied 17,576 members of 166 MLH1 and 224 MSH2 mutation‐carrying families from the Colon Cancer Family Registry. Average cumulative risks of colorectal cancer (CRC), endometrial cancer ...(EC), and other cancers for carriers were estimated using modified segregation analysis conditioned on ascertainment criteria. Heterogeneity in risks was investigated using a polygenic risk modifier. Average CRC cumulative risks at the age of 70 years (95% confidence intervals) for MLH1 and MSH2 mutation carriers, respectively, were estimated to be 34% (25%–50%) and 47% (36%–60%) for male carriers and 36% (25%–51%) and 37% (27%–50%) for female carriers. Corresponding EC risks were 18% (9.1%–34%) and 30% (18%–45%). A high level of CRC risk heterogeneity was observed (P < 0.001), with cumulative risks at the age of 70 years estimated to follow U‐shaped distributions. For example, 17% of male MSH2 mutation carriers have estimated lifetime risks of 0%–10% and 18% have risks of 90%–100%. Therefore, average risks are similar for the two genes but there is so much individual variation about the average that large proportions of carriers have either very low or very high lifetime cancer risks. Our estimates of CRC and EC cumulative risks for MLH1 and MSH2 mutation carriers are the most precise currently available.
Our estimates of colorectal and endometrial cancer risks for MLH1 and MSH2 mutation carriers are the most precise currently available. Average risks are similar for the two genes but there is so much individual variation about the average that a sizeable proportion of carries are almost certain to develop cancer whereas another sizeable proportion only have population‐level risks.
We investigated if long-term household air pollution (HAP) is associated with asthma and lung function decline in middle-aged adults, and whether these associations were modified by glutathione
...-transferase (GST) gene variants, ventilation and atopy.
Prospective data on HAP (heating, cooking, mould and smoking) and asthma were collected in the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) at mean ages 43 and 53 years (n=3314). Subsamples had data on lung function (n=897) and GST gene polymorphisms (n=928). Latent class analysis was used to characterise longitudinal patterns of exposure. Regression models assessed associations and interactions.
We identified seven longitudinal HAP profiles. Of these, three were associated with persistent asthma, greater lung function decline and % reversibility by age 53 years compared with the "Least exposed" reference profile for those who used reverse-cycle air conditioning, electric cooking and no smoking. The "All gas" (OR 2.64, 95% CI 1.22-5.70), "Wood heating/smoking" (OR 2.71, 95% CI 1.21-6.05) and "Wood heating/gas cooking" (OR 2.60, 95% CI 1.11-6.11) profiles were associated with persistent asthma, as well as greater lung function decline and % reversibility. Participants with the
Ile/Ile genotype were at a higher risk of asthma or greater lung function decline when exposed compared with other genotypes. Exhaust fan use and opening windows frequently may reduce the adverse effects of HAP produced by combustion heating and cooking on current asthma, presumably through increasing ventilation.
Exposures to wood heating, gas cooking and heating, and tobacco smoke over 10 years increased the risks of persistent asthma, lung function decline and % reversibility, with evidence of interaction by GST genes and ventilation.
DEPendency of association on the number of Top Hits (DEPTH) is an approach to identify candidate susceptibility regions by considering the risk signals from overlapping groups of sequential variants ...across the genome.
We applied a DEPTH analysis using a sliding window of 200 SNPs to colorectal cancer data from the Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR; 5,735 cases and 3,688 controls), and Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO; 8,865 cases and 10,285 controls) studies. A DEPTH score > 1 was used to identify candidate susceptibility regions common to both analyses. We compared DEPTH results against those from conventional genome-wide association study (GWAS) analyses of these two studies as well as against 132 published susceptibility regions.
Initial DEPTH analysis revealed 2,622 (CCFR) and 3,686 (GECCO) candidate susceptibility regions, of which 569 were common to both studies. Bootstrapping revealed 40 and 49 candidate susceptibility regions in the CCFR and GECCO data sets, respectively. Notably, DEPTH identified at least 82 regions that would not be detected using conventional GWAS methods, nor had they been identified by previous colorectal cancer GWASs. We found four reproducible candidate susceptibility regions (2q22.2, 2q33.1, 6p21.32, 13q14.3). The highest DEPTH scores were in the human leukocyte antigen locus at 6p21 where the strongest associated SNPs were rs762216297, rs149490268, rs114741460, and rs199707618 for the CCFR data, and rs9270761 for the GECCO data.
DEPTH can identify candidate susceptibility regions for colorectal cancer not identified using conventional analyses of larger datasets.
DEPTH has potential as a powerful complementary tool to conventional GWAS analyses for discovering susceptibility regions within the genome.
Summary Adenocarcinomas of the colon and rectum are graded using a 2-tiered system into histologic low-grade and high-grade tumors based on the proportion of gland formation. The current grading ...system does not apply to subtypes of carcinomas associated with a high frequency of microsatellite instability (MSI), such as mucinous and medullary carcinomas. We investigated the combined effect of histologic grade and MSI status on survival for 738 patients with colorectal carcinoma (48% female; mean age at diagnosis 68.2 years). The proportion of high-grade adenocarcinoma was 18%. MSI was observed in 59 adenocarcinomas (9%), with higher frequency in high-grade tumors compared with low-grade tumors (20% versus 6%; P < .001). Using Cox regression models, adjusting for sex and age at diagnosis and stratifying by the American Joint Committee on Cancer stage, microsatellite stable (MSS) high-grade tumors were associated with increased hazard of all-cause and colorectal cancer–specific mortality: hazard ratio 2.09 (95% confidence interval CI, 1.58-2.77) and 2.54 (95% CI, 1.86-3.47), respectively, both P < .001. A new grading system separating adenocarcinoma into low grade (all histologic low grade and MSI high grade) and high grade (MSS histologic high grade) gave a lower Akaike information criterion value when compared with the current grading system and thus represented a better model fit to stratify patients according to survival. We found that patients with a high-grade adenocarcinoma had significantly shorter survival than patients with low-grade adenocarcinoma only if the tumor was MSS, suggesting that the grading of colorectal adenocarcinoma with high-grade histologic features should be made according to the MSI status of the tumor.
The unknown aetiology of Serrated Polyposis Syndrome (SPS) impedes risk prediction and prevention. We investigated risk factors for SPS, overall and stratified by World Health Organization (WHO)
...clinical criteria and by colorectal cancer (CRC).
A retrospective case-control study involving a cross-sectional analysis from 350 unrelated individuals with SPS from the Genetics of Colonic Polyposis Study and 714 controls from the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression modelling was used to determine the association between risk factors and SPS and risk factors associated with CRC in SPS.
Female biological sex (odds ratio (OR) = 4.54; 95%Confidence interval (CI) = 2.77-7.45), increasing body mass index (BMI) at age 20 years (OR = 1.09; 95%CI = 1.04-1.13), hormone replacement therapy (OR = 0.44; 95%CI = 0.20.98), and increasing weekly folate intake (OR = 0.82; 95%CI = 0.75-0.90) were associated with SPS by multivariate analysis. Increasing weekly calcium intake (OR = 0.79; 95%CI = 0.64-0.97) and smoking > 10 cigarettes daily (OR = 0.45; 95%CI = 0.23-0.86) were associated with WHO criterion I only. The consumption of 1-100 g of alcohol per week (OR = 0.39; 95%CI = 0.18-0.83) was associated with WHO criterion III only. Smoking 1-5 cigarettes daily (OR = 2.35; 95%CI = 1.09-5.05), weekly non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAIDs) intake (OR = 0.88; 95%CI = 0.78-0.99), and increased height (OR = 1.09; 95% = 1.05-1.13), were associated with SPS fulfilling both WHO criteria I and III. Moreover, weekly NSAIDs intake (OR = 0.81; 95%CI = 0.67-0.98) was associated with a reduced likelihood of CRC in SPS.
We identified novel risk and potential protective factors associated with SPS, some specific for certain WHO
criteria. Weekly use of NSAIDs may reduce the risk of CRC in people with SPS.
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