The problems uncovered during the debacle of the 2000 presidential election persist, and we can expect far more trouble unless we fix the way we run elections.
In Catastrophic Success, Alexander B. Downes compiles all instances of regime change around the world over the past two centuries. Drawing on this impressive data set, Downes shows that regime change ...increases the likelihood of civil war and violent leader removal in target states and fails to reduce the probability of conflict between intervening states and their targets. As Downes demonstrates, when a state confronts an obstinate or dangerous adversary, the lure of toppling its government and establishing a friendly administration is strong. The historical record, however, shows that foreign- imposed regime change is, in the long term, neither cheap, easy, nor consistently successful. The strategic impulse to forcibly oust antagonistic or non-compliant regimes overlooks two key facts. First, the act of overthrowing a foreign government sometimes causes its military to disintegrate, sending thousands of armed men into the countryside where they often wage an insurgency against the intervener. Second, externally-imposed leaders face a domestic audience in addition to an external one, and the two typically want different things. These divergent preferences place imposed leaders in a quandary: taking actions that please one invariably alienates the other. Regime change thus drives a wedge between external patrons and their domestic protégés or between protégés and their people. Catastrophic Success provides sober counsel for leaders and diplomats. Regime change may appear an expeditious solution, but states are usually better off relying on other tools of influence, such as diplomacy. Regime change, Downes urges, should be reserved for exceptional cases. Interveners must recognize that, absent a rare set of promising preconditions, regime change often instigates a new period of uncertainty and conflict that impedes their interests from being realized.
States United Lydgate, Joanna; Eisen, Norman; Whitman, Christine Todd
10/2022
eBook
Open access
The Laurence and Lynne Brown Democracy Medal, presented by the McCourtney Institute for Democracy at Penn State, recognizes outstanding individuals, groups, and organizations that produce innovations ...to further democracy in the United States or around the world.Elections are the bedrock of any democracy, but they are under attack in the United States. State legislatures are moving to limit voting rights and seize control of election administration, candidates are refusing to accept election results, and antidemocracy forces are sowing lies and encouraging political violence.The States United Democracy Center is fighting back by equipping state and local officials, law enforcement leaders, and prodemocracy partners with the tools and resources they need to protect free, fair, and secure elections. For this important work, its cofounders are the recipients of the 2022 Brown Democracy Medal. States United was founded during the 2020 election and continues to be led by Joanna Lydgate, former chief deputy attorney general of Massachusetts; Norman Eisen, former ambassador to the Czech Republic and special assistant to President Barack Obama for ethics and government reform; and Christine Todd Whitman, former New Jersey governor and Environmental Protection Agency administrator.
Local government is the hidden leviathan of American politics: it accounts for nearly a tenth of gross domestic product, it collects nearly as much in taxes as the federal government, and its ...decisions have an enormous impact on Americans' daily lives. Yet political scientists have few explanations for how people vote in local elections, particularly in the smaller cities, towns, and suburbs where most Americans live. Drawing on a wide variety of data sources and case studies, this book offers the first comprehensive analysis of electoral politics in America's municipalities.
Arguing that current explanations of voting behavior are ill suited for most local contests, Eric Oliver puts forward a new theory that highlights the crucial differences between local, state, and national democracies. Being small in size, limited in power, and largely unbiased in distributing their resources, local governments are "managerial democracies" with a distinct style of electoral politics. Instead of hinging on the partisanship, ideology, and group appeals that define national and state elections, local elections are based on the custodial performance of civic-oriented leaders and on their personal connections to voters with similarly deep community ties. Explaining not only the dynamics of local elections, Oliver's findings also upend many long-held assumptions about community power and local governance, including the importance of voter turnout and the possibilities for grassroots political change.
Perhaps the truest test of a nation's ability govern itself democratically is its ability to count ballots fairly and accurately in competitive, high-stakes elections. Yet from the founding on, ...America's adherence to this ideal has been distinctly uneven. Edward Foley's Ballot Battles is a sweeping synthesis of the subject, tracing how election controversies evolved over time, from the 1780s to the present.
States United Lydgate, Joanna; Eisen, Norman; Whitman, Christine Todd
2022
eBook
Open access
The Laurence and Lynne Brown Democracy Medal, presented by the McCourtney Institute for Democracy at Penn State, recognizes outstanding individuals, groups, and organizations that produce innovations ...to further democracy in the United States or around the world. Elections are the bedrock of any democracy, but they are under attack in the United States. State legislatures are moving to limit voting rights and seize control of election administration, candidates are refusing to accept election results, and antidemocracy forces are sowing lies and encouraging political violence. The States United Democracy Center is fighting back by equipping state and local officials, law enforcement leaders, and prodemocracy partners with the tools and resources they need to protect free, fair, and secure elections. For this important work, its cofounders are the recipients of the 2022 Brown Democracy Medal. States United was founded during the 2020 election and continues to be led by Joanna Lydgate, former chief deputy attorney general of Massachusetts; Norman Eisen, former ambassador to the Czech Republic and special assistant to President Barack Obama for ethics and government reform; and Christine Todd Whitman, former New Jersey governor and Environmental Protection Agency administrator.
Contrary to our stereotypical views, dictators often introduce elections in which they refrain from employing blatant electoral fraud. Why do electoral reforms happen in autocracies? Do these ...elections destabilize autocratic rule? The Dictator’s Dilemma at the Ballot Box argues that strong autocrats who can garner popular support become less dependent on coercive electioneering strategies. When autocrats fail to design elections properly, elections backfire in the form of coups, protests, and the opposition’s stunning election victories. The book’s theoretical implications are tested on a battery of cross-national analyses with newly collected data on autocratic elections and in-depth comparative case studies of the two Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
Why did election monitoring become an international norm? Why do pseudo-democrats-undemocratic leaders who present themselves as democratic-invite international observers, even when they are likely ...to be caught manipulating elections? Is election observation an effective tool of democracy promotion, or is it simply a way to legitimize electoral autocracies? InThe Pseudo-Democrat's Dilemma, Susan D. Hyde explains international election monitoring with a new theory of international norm formation. Hyde argues that election observation was initiated by states seeking international support. International benefits tied to democracy give some governments an incentive to signal their commitment to democratization without having to give up power. Invitations to nonpartisan foreigners to monitor elections, and avoiding their criticism, became a widely recognized and imitated signal of a government's purported commitment to democratic elections.
Hyde draws on cross-national data on the global spread of election observation between 1960 and 2006, detailed descriptions of the characteristics of countries that do and do not invite observers, and evidence of three ways that election monitoring is costly to pseudo-democrats: micro-level experimental tests from elections in Armenia and Indonesia showing that observers can deter election-day fraud and otherwise improve the quality of elections; illustrative cases demonstrating that international benefits are contingent on democracy in countries like Haiti, Peru, Togo, and Zimbabwe; and qualitative evidence documenting the escalating game of strategic manipulation among pseudo-democrats, international monitors, and pro-democracy forces.
