This article studies the long-run relationship between the capital share in national income and top personal income shares. Using a newly constructed historical cross-country database on capital ...shares and top income data, we find evidence on a strong, positive link that has grown stronger over the past century. The connection is stronger in Anglo-Saxon countries, in the very top of the distribution, when top capital incomes predominate, when using distributed top national income shares, and when considering gross of depreciation capital shares. Out of-sample predictions of top shares using capital shares indicates several cases of over- or underestimation.
As rents have risen and wages have not kept pace, housing affordability in the United States has declined over the last 15 years, impacting the housing and living arrangements of low-income families. ...Housing subsidies improve the housing situations of low-income families, but less than one in four eligible families receive a voucher. In this article, we analyze whether one of the largest anti-poverty programs in the United States—the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)—affects the housing (eviction, homelessness, and affordability) and living arrangements (doubling up, number of people in the household, and crowding) of low-income families. Using the Current Population Survey, the American Community Survey/decennial census, and the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, we employ a parameterized difference-in-differences strategy to examine whether policy-induced expansions to the EITC affect the housing and living arrangements of single mothers. Results suggest that a $1,000 increase in the EITC improves housing by reducing housing cost burdens, but it has no effect on eviction or homelessness. Increases in the EITC also reduce doubling up (living with additional, nonnuclear family adults)—in particular, doubling up in someone else's home—and reduce three-generation/multigenerational coresidence, suggesting that mothers have a preference to live independently. We find weak evidence for a reduction in overall household size, yet the EITC does reduce household crowding. Although the EITC is not an explicit housing policy, expansions to the EITC are generally linked with improved housing outcomes for single mothers and their children.
This paper combines national accounts, survey, wealth and fiscal data (including recently released tax data on high-income taxpayers) in order to provide consistent series on the accumulation and ...distribution of income and wealth in Russia from the Soviet period until the present day. We find that official survey-based measures vastly under-estimate the rise of inequality since 1990. According to our benchmark estimates, top income shares are now similar to (or higher than) the levels observed in the United States. We also find that inequality has increased substantially more in Russia than in China and other ex-communist countries in Eastern Europe. We relate this finding to the specific transition strategy followed in Russia. According to our benchmark estimates, the wealth held offshore by rich Russians is about three times larger than official net foreign reserves, and is comparable in magnitude to total household financial assets held in Russia.
Sweden has been known for having one of the most equal income distributions in the world. However, in recent decades, Sweden has experienced increasing income inequality. An alternative way of ...measuring the development of inequality is to study and compare the income development within and between two birth cohorts according to gender and different positions of income distribution. The focus in this paper is to study how individual disposable personal income has changed by aging and at various positions of the income distribution, as well as the gender disposable income gap and intragenerational income mobility. Three positions of the income distribution were chosen: percentile 10; median; and percentile 99. Two cohorts, including all individuals born in 1948 and 1958, were tracked from 35 years of age to 53 years of age – with two 18-year overlapping periods, 1983–2000, and 1993–2010. The results show a complex and multifaceted image of the development of income inequality and mobility, within and between the two birth cohorts. Especially male low-income earners, born 1958, have been left behind. Income mobility differ according to gender where women have increased mobility in the bottom quintile and decreased in the top quintile, men experienced the opposite. When modelling mobility education have decreased to contribute to an upward mobility, especial for cohort born 1958. Taking all the results together, the development of increasing income inequality in Sweden is apparent.
Has income insecurity increased among U.S. children with the emergence of an employment-based safety net and the polarization of labor markets and family structure? We study the trend in insecurity ...from 1984–2010 by analyzing fluctuations in children's monthly family incomes in the Survey of Income and Program Participation. Going beyond earlier research on income volatility, we examine income insecurity more directly by analyzing income gains and losses separately and by relating them to changes in family composition and employment. The analysis provides new evidence of increased income insecurity by showing that large income losses increased more than large income gains for low-income children. Nearly one-half the increase in extreme income losses is related to trends in single parenthood and parental employment. Large income losses proliferated with the increased incidence of very low incomes (less than $150 per month). Extreme income losses and very low monthly incomes became more common particularly for U.S. children of nonworking single parents from the mid-1990s.
We provide a new and unexplored explanation of the relationship between the functional and personal distribution of income. By proposing a simple theoretical framework, we show that, in the ...noncomprehensive personal income tax (PIT) hypothesis (i.e., when some or all capital income items are excluded from the PIT base), the correlation between disposable and market income inequality depends on the labor share level, which may influence the overall effectiveness of the tax-benefit system in addition to the PIT progressivity. We test our hypothesis using panel data on 33 OECD countries from 2000 to 2017 and find that a 10-pp increase in labor share is related to a 0.06 reduction in the correlation between market and disposable income inequality. This significant result obtained after controlling for country and year fixed effects, country-specific linear trends, and several confounders capturing the characteristics of the tax-benefit system suggests that labor share may act as an "automatic stabilizer" of market income inequality. Relevant implications for tax policy concern the role of the PIT's base for the public budget's overall redistributive effect.
Contributors including Brian Eno, Demos Helsinki, California's Y Combinator Research and prominent academics explore the impact Universal Basic Income could have on work, welfare and inequality in ...the twenty-first century.
We revisit to what extent the increase in income inequality since 1980 was mirrored by consumption inequality. We do so by constructing an alternative measure of consumption expenditure using a ...demand system to correct for systematic measurement error in the Consumer Expenditure Survey. Our estimation exploits the relative expenditure of high- and low-income households on luxuries versus necessities. This double differencing corrects for measurement error that can vary over time by good and income. We find consumption inequality tracked income inequality much more closely than estimated by direct responses on expenditures.
Rethinking the Welfare State Guner, Nezih; Kaygusuz, Remzi; Ventura, Gustavo
Econometrica,
November 2023, Volume:
91, Issue:
6
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
The United States spends significant amounts on non‐medical transfers for its working‐age population in a wide range of programs that support low‐ and middle‐income households. How valuable are these ...programs for U.S. households? Are there simpler, welfare‐improving ways to transfer resources that are supported by a majority? What are the macroeconomic effects of such alternatives? We answer these questions in an equilibrium, life‐cycle model with single and married households who face idiosyncratic productivity risk, in the presence of costly children and potential skill losses of females associated with non‐participation. Our findings show that a potential revenue‐neutral elimination of the welfare state generates large welfare losses in the aggregate, although most households support the move as losses are concentrated among a small group. We find that a Universal Basic Income program does not improve upon the current system. If, instead, per‐person transfers are implemented alongside a proportional tax, a Negative Income Tax experiment, it becomes feasible to improve upon the current system. Providing per‐person transfers to all households is costly, and reducing tax distortions helps to provide for resources to expand redistribution.
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