We introduce taxi ridership between the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York and large financial institutions headquartered in New York City as a novel proxy for Fed–bank face-to-face interactions. ...We document a negative relation between past Fed–bank interactions and future stock market returns, particularly on days around the Fed’s public announcements. We also find significantly elevated Fed–bank interactions immediately following the lifting of the Federal Open Market Committee blackout. Our findings suggest that the Fed increases its information gathering via face-to-face interactions when it possesses negative private information about the condition of the economy.
This paper was accepted by Agostino Capponi, finance.
Funding: This work was supported by the Muma College of Business Center for Analytics and Creativity at the University South Florida, the George Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State, the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation, the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, the Liew Fama-Miller Fellowship, and the Fischer Black Fellowship.
Supplemental Material: Data and the online appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4885 .
Political communication plays a special role in the life of modern society. Political speeches can be used to judge the direction of the development of political relations between states and the ...priorities of politicians in various spheres of social and political life. A political public speech is nothing but the interaction of a politician with the audience, a means of propaganda, a presentation of his position and views, a means of persuasion, and a tool for the power struggle. In political speeches, the important role of language as a means of struggle for power and a way to retain it is especially evident. This determines the relevance of studying the linguistic and stylistic features of political speech and identifying effective ways of linguistic influence on a wide audience. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the description of linguistic and stylistic means that contribute to the creation of an effective political speech in English on the example of the speeches of US President Donald Trump, whose speech style is of great interest to linguists. The article aims to describe the linguistic and stylistic means of creating expressiveness that Trump prefers in his speeches. An equally important objective is to determine the main functions of using linguistic and stylistic devices in a political speech.
Dignity is one of the elementary values in the axiological canon of Poles. It is equated with the fundamental right of every human being. This is confirmed by the language data presented in the ...article. Dignity is also one of the most important values in Lech Kaczyński’s presidential discourse. The dignity of the state and nation was of particular importance to him, followed by the dignity of workers. The aim of the article is to analyze dignity on the example of presidential public speeches in 2006-2009.
Although social scientists have examined how political speeches may help forge and/or shape collective memories, they have done so with little to no input from psychologists. We address this deficit, ...demonstrating how a modified version of a well-established and empirically derived psychological phenomenon—socially shared retrieval-induced forgetting—helps explain the mnemonic consequences associated with political speeches, in this case, the Belgian King’s 2012 summer speech. To this end, we analyzed the responses of 43 French speakers and 49 Dutch speakers. Of these individuals, 35 attended to the speech (16 French speakers; 19 Dutch speakers). Our results suggest that the Belgian King’s speech induced French-speaking Belgians who attended the speech to recall less information related to what the King mentioned in the speech. We found no such deficit for Dutch-speaking Belgians. Rather, the Dutch-speaking Belgians exhibited a trend toward greater recall of related and unrelated information when attending relative to not attending to the speach. These results bolster the importance of including a psychological approach in the study of collective memories and the moderating role of social identity.
Aim: The purpose of the article is to present the hypothesis that the use of discrepancies in audiovisual materials can significantly increase the effectiveness of detecting various types of deepfake ...and related threats. In order to verify this hypothesis, the authors proposed a new method that reveals inconsistencies in both multiple modalities simultaneously and within individual modalities separately, enabling them to effectively distinguish between authentic and altered public speaking videos. Project and methods: The proposed approach is to integrate audio and visual signals in a so-called fine-grained manner, and then carry out binary classification processes based on calculated adjustments to the classification results of each modality. The method has been tested using various network architectures, in particular Capsule networks – for deep anomaly detection and Swin Transformer – for image classification. Pre-processing included frame extraction and face detection using the MTCNN algorithm, as well as conversion of audio to mel spectrograms to better reflect human auditory perception. The proposed technique was tested on multimodal deepfake datasets, namely FakeAVCeleb and TMC, along with a custom dataset containing 4,700 recordings. The method has shown high performance in identifying deepfake threats in various test scenarios. Results: The method proposed by the authors achieved better AUC and accuracy compared to other reference methods, confirming its effectiveness in the analysis of multimodal artefacts. The test results confirm that it is effective in detecting modified videos in a variety of test scenarios which can be considered an advance over existing deepfake detection techniques. The results highlight the adaptability of the method in various architectures of feature extraction networks. Conclusions: The presented method of audiovisual deepfake detection uses fine inconsistencies of multimodal features to distinguish whether the material is authentic or synthetic. It is distinguished by its ability to point out inconsistencies in different types of deepfakes and, within each individual modality, can effectively distinguish authentic content from manipulated counterparts. The adaptability has been confirmed by the successful application of the method in various feature extraction network architectures. Moreover, its effectiveness has been proven in rigorous tests on two different audiovisual deepfake datasets. Keywords: analysis of audio-video stream, detection of deepfake threats, analysis of public speeches
Abstract The aim of this paper was to evaluate gender differences in the language used in United Nations (UN) General Assembly debates by one male and one female representative each from India, ...China, the USA, and Indonesia. The critical discourse analysis (CDA) framework of van Dijk (2015) was used along with the 25 discursive devices in this framework. The data on frequencies of variables were analysed statistically. No significant differences were observed between positive comments about oneself, negative comments about others, length of speech (in words), and the various devices by the gender of the speaker at the 0.05 level of significance. However, gender differences in terms of higher levels for males than for females were observed for populism ( t (6) = 2.354, p = .057), norm expression ( t (6) = 2.171, p = 0.073), and positive comments about oneself ( t (6) = 2.224, p = .068). The correlation coefficients were significant between genders for positive-self, norm expression, and national self-glorification only. These results could be attributed to the small size of four male and four female speeches, leading to high values of standard error, which reflects the significance of differences. Also, there could be overlapping and mixing of gender characteristics in connection with different contexts and occasions due to emergent identities. These political identities were created in particular situations or contexts, and it was not clear how much they could be a result of female or male politicians’ styles. This explanation by Sivrić and Jurčić (2014) seems to be valid for this research as well. Small samples could be a limitation of this study. However, many other works used even smaller samples. The generalisability of these findings needs to be tested using other similar studies.
The article assesses the ability of Czech President Miloš Zeman to establish political issues in the public discussion. The period investigated in this study covers the latter part of his first term ...and the early part of his second term in office. We identified the key issues of his public speeches using content analysis. The eight most important issues (Chinese investment in Czechia, support for Israel, sanctions against Russia, the fight against terrorism, budget investments, hospice care, criticism of the European Union and inclusivity) were observed in several major Czech media outlets. Using a quantitative method, we constructed agenda-setting graphs for each issue; using qualitative analyses, we described the context and the president’s success rate in issue management. President Zeman successfully established the issues of Chinese investment and support for Israel in the media agenda.
W opracowaniu skupiono się na specyficznym aspekcie bezpieczeństwa kulturowego, który związany jest z przemówieniami publicznymi, traktowanymi jako element zarządzania kapitałem społecznym. Bazując ...na przeprowadzonych badaniach własnych oraz na krytycznej analizie literatury przedmiotu, wyciągnięto wnioski o zasadności zajmowania się wskazaną tematyką w środowisku kadry kierowniczej Wojsk Lądowych Sił Zbrojnych RP. Autor wskazuje na wagę transmisji postaw i wzorcotwórczej funkcji działalności oficera wobec dziedzictwa kulturowego, które zespolone z jednostką można rozpatrywać jako element kapitału ludzkiego.
In contents of the study they concentrated on the peculiar safety aspect cultural which is connected with speeches public, treated as the element of managing the social capital. Being based on conducted own examinations and on the critical analysis of the literature on the subject, they concluded for legitimacies of doing recommended with subject matter in the environment of the senior staff of the army of military forces the Republic of Poland. The author shows transmission of attitudes by weight and models of function of activity of the officer towards the cultural legacy, which united with the individual it is possible to consider the element of the human capital.
The article is dedicated to the contribution of Harvard professor Archibald Cary Coolidge and his students into the rise and development of Russian studies in American Universities. The author ...believes that it was due to their personal interest and enthusiasm that the Russian language began to be taught in the USA universities. The article provides information about Coolidge’s biography, his approach to teaching Russian, and his work aimed at popularizing Russian and introducing it into the American higher education curriculum.
Статья посвящена вкладу профессора Гарвардского университета Арчибальда Кэри Кулиджа и его учеников в становление и дальнейшее развитие русистики в высших учебных заведениях США. Автор полагает, что именно личный энтузиазм этих людей и их заинтересованность Россией способствовали внедрению преподавания русского языка в американских университетах. В статье приводятся основные сведения из биографии Кулиджа, рассматривается его подход к преподаванию русского языка и основные направления его деятельности, способствовавшей популяризации исследований России и включению русского языка в образовательную программу некоторых вузов в США.
This study tests the effect of gubernatorial policy agendas on state budgetary choices. Governors are commonly perceived as state policy leaders, but lack direct legislative authority and depend on ...the law makers to pass bills and present them for signature. The theory posits that governors nonetheless possess several formal and informal tools that are used to overcome this institutional disadvantage and successfully pursue their policy goals. Gubernatorial policy priorities in this study are extracted from public speeches using unsupervised machine learning. Their influence on state spending choices in different policy areas is tested through panel data analysis of all states from 2007 through 2015. Empirical findings reveal that the effect of executive agendas is more pronounced in the area of transportation infrastructure and public safety—potentially due to lower levels of conflict and concentrated benefits, which eases deal making with law makers. Governors are also more persistent with policy proposals that are more important for reelection.
Related Articles
Adams, Brian E. 2016. “Assessing the Merits of Decentralization: A Framework for Identifying the Causal Mechanisms Influencing Policy Outcomes.” Politics & Policy 44 (5): 820‐849. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12172
Heidbreder, Brianne. 2012. “Agenda Setting in the States: How Politics and Policy Needs Shape Gubernatorial Agendas.” Politics & Policy 40 (2): 296‐319. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2012.00345.x
Patrick, Barbara. 2012. “Fiscal Federalism, Performance Policies, and Education Reforms: Are States Using Performance Policies to Improve Workforce Quality?” Politics & Policy 40 (4): 593‐628. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2012.00370.x
Prioridades de política gubernativa y resultados fiscales estatales
Este estudio prueba el efecto de las agendas de políticas gubernamentales en las elecciones presupuestarias estatales. Los gobernadores son comúnmente percibidos como líderes de políticas estatales, pero carecen de autoridad legislativa directa y dependen de los legisladores para aprobar proyectos de ley y presentarlos para su firma. La teoría postula que los gobernadores, no obstante, poseen varias herramientas formales e informales que pueden utilizarse para superar esta desventaja institucional y perseguir con éxito sus objetivos políticos. Las prioridades de la política gubernamental en este estudio se extraen de los discursos públicos mediante el aprendizaje automático no supervisado. Su influencia en las elecciones de gasto estatal en diferentes áreas de políticas se prueba a través del análisis de datos de panel de todos los estados desde 2007 hasta 2015. Los resultados empíricos revelan que el efecto de las agendas ejecutivas es más pronunciado en el área de la infraestructura de transporte y la seguridad pública potencialmente debido a niveles más bajos de conflicto y beneficios concentrados, lo que facilita el trato con los legisladores. Los gobernadores también pueden ser más persistentes con las propuestas de políticas que son más importantes para la reelección.
州长的政策重点和州财政结果
本研究检验了州长的政策议程对州预算选项产生的效果。州长通常被视为一个州的政策领导，但他们没有直接的立法权，且依靠法律制定者通过法案，由其提交以供签字。理论认为，尽管如此，州长拥有几项正式和非正式工具，它们能被用于克服该制度缺点并成功追寻其政策目标。本研究使用无监督机器学习，从公共演讲中提取出州长政策重点。通过对2007年至2015年间的各州进行面板数据分析，检验了州长政策重点对不同政策领域中州开支选项产生的作用。实证结果显示，行政议程产生的效果在交通基建领域和公共安全领域中更为显著，这可能是因为争议程度较低，利益较为集中，进而使得与法律制定者之间的事务处理更为容易。州长也可能更坚持那些对再次选举更为重要的政策提议。
PDF
