In the majority of EU Member States, agricultural land is expected to decrease not only due to land-use changes in favour of urban expansion and afforestation but also to land abandonment processes. ...The knowledge on location and extent of agricultural land abandonment is relevant for estimating local external effects and adapting policy interventions. Currently, multi-level land-use models are able to capture determined processes of demand-driven redevelopment. However, land abandonment is much more difficult to capture because of its more ambiguous definition and the lack of data on its spatial distribution. This paper presents a method to explicitly model agricultural abandonment as a choice of disinvestment, which in turn is embedded in a utility-based land-use modelling framework that projects land-use changes for the EU and the UK. Validation exercises using observed spatial distribution of abandoned farmland show that the proposed method allows to model abandonment with acceptable accuracy.
•LUISA is a modelling platform able to dynamically project agricultural land abandonment.•Biophysical, agricultural socio-economic and regional factors are key drivers to estimate abandonment risk.•The model outcomes project more than 5.6 M ha of abandoned land by 2030 in the EU and the UK.•Risk areas for land abandonment are widespread in the EU countries and not limited to mountain regions.•We present a long-term territorial assessment that might guide different strategies for preventing land abandonment.•Data availability and resolution are key elements for modelling and validating farmland abandonment.
In many developing countries property rights over rural land are maintained through continuous personal use instead of by land titles. We show that removing the link between land use and land rights ...through the issuance of ownership certificates can result in large-scale adjustments to labor and land allocations. Using the rollout of the Mexican land certification program from 1993 to 2006, we find that households obtaining certificates were subsequently 28 percent more likely to have a migrant member. We also show that even though land certification induced migration, it had little effect on cultivated area due to consolidation of farm units.
The integrated development of agricultural land and finance not only promotes rural financial innovation and breaks the bottleneck of agricultural financing but also facilitates agricultural land ...transfer and scaled operations. This leads to the advancement of the effective growth of contemporary agriculture. The reform of the 'separation of three rights' in agricultural land promotes land circulation, which, in turn, offers an institutional guarantee for the tandem development of rural finance and agricultural land management. This paper measures the comprehensive development index of agricultural land management and rural finance in 30 provinces of China from 2005 to 2020. In light of this, it calculates the degree of coupling and coordination between China's agricultural land management and rural financial development. The Dagum Gini coefficient, kernel density, and the Moran index were used to analyze regional differences and patterns of agglomeration. The study found that the degree of coupling coordination between China's agricultural land management and rural finance is increasing annually. However, there remains a significant gap in achieving high-quality coupling. Notably, the growth rate of rural financial development exceeds that of agricultural land management, and hypervariable density is a major source of regional variation. There is polarization in the coupled development of farmland management and rural finance. Provinces in the eastern and central regions tend to be located in the high-high agglomeration (H-H) in terms of the level of development of agricultural land and financial integration, while the western region tends to fall in low-low aggregation (L-L).
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► Land-use decisions in post-Soviet Russia shifted toward market-based principles. ► Agricultural land use followed micro-economic theories of von Thünen and Ricardo. ► Areas with low ...agricultural productivity were abandoned first. ► Abandonment was driven by macro-economic factors, e.g. the withdrawal of subsidies. ► We expect further abandonment of lands with low productivity and population density.
The breakdown of socialism caused massive socio-economic and institutional changes that led to substantial agricultural land abandonment. The goal of our study was to identify the determinants of agricultural land abandonment in post-Soviet Russia during the first decade of transition from a state-controlled economy to a market-driven economy (1990–2000). We analyzed the determinants of agricultural land abandonment for approximately 150,550km2 of land area in the provinces (oblasts) of Kaluga, Rjazan, Smolensk, Tula and Vladimir in European Russia. Based on the economic assumptions of profit maximization, we integrated maps of abandoned agricultural land from five ∼185km×185km Landsat TM/ETM+ footprints with socio-economic, environmental and geographic variables, and we estimated logistic regressions at the pixel level to identify the determinants of agricultural land abandonment. Our results showed that a higher likelihood of agricultural land abandonment was significantly associated with lower average grain yields in the late 1980s and with higher distances from the nearest settlements, municipality centers, and settlements with more than 500 citizens. Hierarchical partitioning showed that the average grain yields in the late 1980s had the greatest power to explain agricultural land abandonment in our models, followed by the locational attributes of the agricultural land. We hypothesize that the termination of 90% of state subsidies for agriculture from 1990 to 2000 was an important underlying cause for the decrease of cultivation in economically and environmentally marginal agriculture areas. Thus, whereas the spatial patterns corresponded to the land rent theory of von Thünen, it was primarily the macro-scale driving forces that fostered agricultural abandonment. Our study highlighted the value of spatially explicit statistical models for studying the determinants of land-use and land-cover change in large areas.
•Disputes over agricultural, industrial and residential land uses frequently occur in the urban–rural interfaces.•Land use conflicts present in land use structure, land conversion and landscape ...pattern.•Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Regional Integration policy fails to reconcile the land use conflicts.•Category of the conflict areas can help establish priorities for land use planning.•Public participation, equity and rural revitalization are viable solutions for conflicts management.
Competition among different uses for land is becoming acute under the process of urbanization, and conflicts related to this competition are becoming more frequent and more complex. This article presents a methodology for confronting this issue. By applying an integrated framework, we explore the implicit role of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Regional Integration (BRI) policy in land use conflicts by focusing on the urban-rural interface, and try to address the research question: “How feasible is BRI for reconciling land use conflicts across the urban-rural interface?” An original structure of the analysis is developed based on the identification of three types of conflicts, namely, conflicts over land use structure, conflicts over land conversion and conflicts over landscape pattern. According to the interactions and relationships among these conflicts, we define broad categories of land use conflict areas. Indeed, these conflicts are all related to the unplanned use of agricultural land reserves, which competes with other more immediate uses, and the over-exploitation of land resources caused by unsustainable urban practices. This policy is clearly a critical objective for optimizing the land use structure. It, however, fails to reconcile the conflicts over land conversion and landscape pattern, especially for considerable agricultural land conversion to non-agricultural uses, and low-density development pattern with mixed residential and industrial land uses. Hence, alternative strategies involving public participation, spatial equity, rural revitalization, land-use system reform, and new type of urbanization, can be identified as viable solutions for land use conflict management, which may be complementary to regional integration. The findings of our paper may also contribute to the policy debate on BRI concerning land use planning and regional sustainability.
•Examines effects of land fragmentation and non-agricultural labor supply on circulation of agricultural land management rights.•The research perspective is labor heterogeneity and family joint ...decision making.•Land fragmentation significantly affects circulation decisions and quantity.•Effect of female non-agricultural labor supply on circulation is greater than that of males.•Number of land plots strengthens the impacts on outflows of agricultural land.
This study quantitatively examines the effects of land fragmentation and non-agricultural labor supply on the circulation of agricultural land management rights. The examination is conducted from the perspective of labor heterogeneity and family joint decision-making, using the rural fixed observation point data from the Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China. The results reveal that land fragmentation significantly affects circulation decisions of agricultural land circulation. Land fragmentation strengthens the effect of non-agricultural labor supply on agricultural land outflow, and this effect is more pronounced among females. Compared with males, the female non-agricultural labor supply has a greater effect on agricultural land circulation. When non-agricultural labor supply increases, the effect of the female non-agricultural labor supply on agricultural land circulation becomes significant, land outflows increase, and land inflows decrease. In the areas of eastern, central, and northeastern China, the female non-agricultural labor supply has a significant impact on agricultural land outflow. Furthermore, the number of land plots strengthens the effect of the non-agricultural labor supply on the outflows of agricultural land in eastern and northeastern China; this effect is more pronounced for females in northeastern China. The government and related departments should strengthen non-agricultural employment training, and design conditions and policies to promote the orderly transfer of household labor, thus achieving intense agricultural development in the process of human urbanization.
Competition for land Smith, Pete; Gregory, Peter J.; van Vuuren, Detlef ...
Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B. Biological sciences,
09/2010, Volume:
365, Issue:
1554
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
A key challenge for humanity is how a future global population of 9 billion can all be fed healthily and sustainably. Here, we review how competition for land is influenced by other drivers and ...pressures, examine land-use change over the past 20 years and consider future changes over the next 40 years. Competition for land, in itself, is not a driver affecting food and farming in the future, but is an emergent property of other drivers and pressures. Modelling studies suggest that future policy decisions in the agriculture, forestry, energy and conservation sectors could have profound effects, with different demands for land to supply multiple ecosystem services usually intensifying competition for land in the future. In addition to policies addressing agriculture and food production, further policies addressing the primary drivers of competition for land (population growth, dietary preference, protected areas, forest policy) could have significant impacts in reducing competition for land. Technologies for increasing per-area productivity of agricultural land will also be necessary. Key uncertainties in our projections of competition for land in the future relate predominantly to uncertainties in the drivers and pressures within the scenarios, in the models and data used in the projections and in the policy interventions assumed to affect the drivers and pressures in the future.
Substantial land surface greening has been observed globally over the last few decades. This greening has been primarily attributed to climate change and CO2 concentrations, but recent research ...studies have emphasized the large role of human land use in this process, especially agricultural land abandonment (ALA). The aim of this study was to investigate whether long-term gradual greening of agricultural land can aid in mapping abandoned land across Poland. Trend estimation and temporal segmentation were applied to the 1986–2019 annual Landsat-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series to detect periods of long-term greening and to assess its relationship with actual information on ALA. The results show that long-term greening is widespread in Poland (covering up to 60% of its territory), regardless of former and current land uses, most of which has stemmed from modifications within stable land use classes (as they cover 91% of Poland). The highest greening rates and intensities were observed due to conversions from agricultural to non-agricultural land use, which strongly suggests land abandonment and the proceeding succession. However, some proportion of managed agricultural land has also experienced high-intensity greening, and a large proportion of abandoned agricultural land is not greening intensively. Thus, setting an exact greening intensity threshold allowing to clearly distinguish the status of land was not possible. This study also presents the consistency of the Landsat annual time series and its good performance for long-term greening detection, indicating that temporal segmentation may better capture ALA patterns than trend estimation
•Country-wide long-term greening maps were produced for Poland.•Greening intensity is a possible indicator of agricultural land abandonment.•Over 600,000 ha of 1980's agricultural land in Poland may currently be abandoned.•Political and economic changes triggered agricultural land abandonment in Poland.
Abstract
The Moringa plant is known as a magic tree because all parts of the Moringa plant can be used for various purposes such as food, health, and environmental improvement. Agricultural land ...affected by liquefaction poses serious problems, especially for crop cultivation farmers. Efforts are needed to restore land through adaptive plant selection, including the Moringa plant. This study aims to examine the vigor of the growing strength of five Moringa genotypes planted in liquefaction-affected land in Jono Oge Village, Sigi-Biromaru District, Sigi Regency, Central Sulawesi Province, Indonesia. This study was designed using a Randomized Group Design (RGD) with the genotype of Moringa cuttings as a single factor, namely Kulawi02, Kulawi10, Palolo24, Balaroa05, and Tondo19. The results showed that the accession of Moringa Tondo19 resulted in a growth rate of 1.92 – 2.20 days faster, 106% – 567% more shoots, and a bud length of 2.38 – 8.5 cm longer compared to the other four accessions so that Tondo19 accession is recommended as an adaptive plant in the recovery of liquefaction-affected lands.
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