The revolution in hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment through the development of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) has generated international interest in the global elimination of the disease as a ...public health threat. In 2017, this led WHO to establish elimination targets for 2030. We evaluated the impact of public health interventions on the global HCV epidemic and investigated whether WHO's elimination targets could be met.
We developed a dynamic transmission model of the global HCV epidemic, calibrated to 190 countries, which incorporates data on demography, people who inject drugs (PWID), current coverage of treatment and prevention programmes, natural history of the disease, HCV prevalence, and HCV-attributable mortality. We estimated the worldwide impact of scaling up interventions that reduce risk of transmission, improve access to treatment, and increase screening for HCV infection by considering six scenarios: no change made to existing levels of diagnosis or treatment; sequentially adding the following interventions: blood safety and infection control, PWID harm reduction, offering of DAAs at diagnosis, and outreach screening to increase the number diagnosed; and a scenario in which DAAs are not introduced (ie, treatment is only with pegylated interferon and oral ribavirin) to investigate the effect of DAA use. We explored the effect of varying the coverage or impact of these interventions in sensitivity analyses and also assessed the impact on the global epidemic of removing certain key countries from the package of interventions.
By 2030, interventions that reduce risk of transmission in the non-PWID population by 80% and increase coverage of harm reduction services to 40% of PWID could avert 14·1 million (95% credible interval 13·0–15·2) new infections. Offering DAAs at time of diagnosis in all countries could prevent 640 000 deaths (620 000–670 000) from cirrhosis and liver cancer. A comprehensive package of prevention, screening, and treatment interventions could avert 15·1 million (13·8–16·1) new infections and 1·5 million (1·4–1·6) cirrhosis and liver cancer deaths, corresponding to an 81% (78–82) reduction in incidence and a 61% (60–62) reduction in mortality compared with 2015 baseline. This reaches the WHO HCV incidence reduction target of 80% but is just short of the mortality reduction target of 65%, which could be reached by 2032. Reducing global burden depends upon success of prevention interventions, implemention of outreach screening, and progress made in key high-burden countries including China, India, and Pakistan.
Further improvements in blood safety and infection control, expansion or creation of PWID harm reduction services, and extensive screening for HCV with concomitant treatment for all are necessary to reduce the burden of HCV. These findings should inform the ongoing global action to eliminate the HCV epidemic.
Wellcome Trust.
Natural history of acute and chronic hepatitis C Maasoumy, Benjamin, MD; Wedemeyer, Heiner
Baillière's best practice & research. Clinical gastroenterology,
08/2012, Volume:
26, Issue:
4
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Abstract Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection remains a major global health burden. Hepatitis C causes significant liver-related morbidity and mortality due to hepatic decompensation and development of ...hepatocellular carcinoma. In addition, extra-hepatic manifestations of hepatitis C are frequent. There is a very large interindividual variability in the natural history of both acute and chronic hepatitis C which can be explained in part by a combination of various host, viral and environmental factors. Successful antiviral treatment can prevent short- and long-term complications of HCV infection in many patients. Still, the relative contribution of distinct risk factors for disease progression in different phases of HCV infection needs to be better defined. Personalized treatment approaches for HCV infection should consider individual risk profiles to avoid both under- and over-treatment – which will remain important also in upcoming era of interferon-free treatment of hepatitis C.
Natural History of Hepatitis C Lingala, Shilpa; Ghany, Marc G
Gastroenterology clinics of North America,
12/2015, Volume:
44, Issue:
4
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Hepatitis C infection is a common cause of cirrhosis and indication for liver transplantation in the United States. The incidence of chronic hepatitis C has been declining, but rates of cirrhosis and ...hepatocellular carcinoma are projected to increase. The outcome of chronic hepatitis C is variable. It is estimated that 20% to 25% will develop cirrhosis over a 25-year to 30-year period. The rate of disease progression is influenced by many host, viral, and environmental factors. Few can be modified.
Background. Vertical transmission of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is the most common route of pediatric HCV infection. Approximately 5% of children born to HCV-infected mothers develop chronic infection. ...Recommendations employ risk-based HCV testing of pregnant women, and screening children at a young age. This study assesses testing rates of children born to mothers tested HCV-positive in a major US city with a high burden of HCV infection. Methods. HCV surveillance data reported to the Philadelphia Department of Public Health are housed in the Hepatitis Registry. Additional tests, including negative results, were retrospectively collected. HCV data were matched with 2011–2013 birth certificates of children aged ≥20 months to identify mothers tested HCV-positive and screened children. The observed perinatal HCV seropositivity rate was compared to the expected rate (5%). Results. A total of 8119 females aged 12–54 years tested HCV-positive and in the Hepatitis Registry. Of these, 500 (5%) had delivered ≥1 child, accounting for 537 (1%) of the 55 623 children born in Philadelphia during the study period. Eighty-four (16%) of these children had HCV testing; 4 (1% of the total) were confirmed cases. Twenty-three additional children are expected to have chronic HCV infection, but were not identified by 20 months of age. Conclusions. These findings illustrate that a significant number of women giving birth in Philadelphia test positive for HCV and that most of their at-risk children remain untested. To successfully identify all HCV-infected children and integrate them into HCV-specific care, practices for HCV screening of pregnant women and their children should be improved.
Background. Treatment for hepatitis C virus (HCV) can lead to sustained virological response (SVR) in over 90% of people. Subsequent recurrence of HCV, either from late relapse or reinfection, ...reverses the beneficial effects of SVR. Methods. A search identified studies analysing HCV recurrence post-SVR. The recurrence rate for each study was calculated using events/person years of follow-up (PYFU). Results were pooled using a random-effects model and used to calculate 5-year recurrence risk. Three patient groups were analysed: (1) Mono-HCV infected "low-risk" patients; (2) Mono-HCV infected "high-risk" patients (injecting drug users or prisoners); (3) human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/HCV coinfected patients. Recurrence was defined as confirmed HCV RNA detectability post-SVR. Results. In the 43 studies of HCV mono-infected "low-risk" patients (n = 7969) the pooled recurrence rate was 1.85/1000 PYFU (95% confidence interval CI, .71–3.35; I2 = 73%) leading to a summary 5-year recurrence risk of 0.95% (95% CI, .35%–1.69%). For the 14 studies of HCV monoinfected "high-risk" patients (n = 771) the pooled recurrence rate was 22.32/1000 PYFU (95% CI, 13.07–33.46; I2 = 27%) leading to a summary 5-year risk of 10.67% (95% CI, 6.38%–15.66%). For the 4 studies of HIV/HCV coinfected patients the pooled recurrence rate was 32.02/1000 PYFU (95% CI, .00–123.49; I2 – 96%) leading to a summary 5-year risk of 15.02% (95% CI, .00%–48.26%). The higher pooled estimates of recurrence in the high-risk and coinfected cohorts were driven by an increase in reinfection rather than late relapse. Conclusions. SVR appears durable in the majority of patients at 5 years post-treatment. The large difference in 5 year event rate by risk group is driven mainly by an increased reinfection risk.
Introduction: A lack of access to hepatitis C virus (HCV) diagnostics is a significant barrier to achieving the World Health Organization 2030 global elimination goal. HCV core antigen (HCVcAg) ...quantification and dried blood spot (DBS) are appealing alternatives to conventional HCV serology and nucleic acid testing (NAT) for resource‐constraint settings, particularly in difficult‐to‐reach populations. We assessed the accuracy of serum and DBS HCVcAg testing in people who inject drugs in Tanzania using HCV NAT as a reference.
Method: Between May and July 2015, consecutive HCV‐seropositive patients enrolled in the local opioid substitution treatment centre were invited to participate in the study. All had HCV RNA detection (Roche Molecular Systems, Pleasanton, CA, USA), genotyping (NS5B gene phylogenetic analysis) and HCVcAg on blood samples and DBS (Architect assay; Abbott Diagnostics, Chicago, IL, USA).
Results: Out of 153 HCV‐seropositive individuals, 65 (42.5%) and 15 (9.8%) were co‐infected with HIV (41 (63%) were on anti‐retroviral therapy (ARVs)) and hepatitis B respectively. In total, 116 were viraemic, median viral load of 5.7 (Interquartile range (IQR); 4.0–6.3) log iU/ml (75 (68.2%) were genotype 1a, 35 (31.8%) genotype 4a). The median alanine transaminase (ALT) (iU/l), aspartate transaminase (AST) (iU/l) and gamma‐glutamyl transferase (GGT) (iU/l) were 35 (IQR; 23–51), 46 (32–57) and 69 (35–151) respectively. For the quantification of HCV RNA, serum HCVcAg had a sensitivity at 99.1% and a specificity at 94.1%, with an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) at 0.99 (95% CI 0.98–1.00). DBS HCVcAg had a sensitivity of 76.1% and a specificity of 97.3%, with an AUROC of 0.87 (95% CI 0.83–0.92). HCVcAg performance did not differ by HIV co‐infection or HCV genotype.
Conclusions: Our study suggests that HCVcAg testing in serum is an excellent alternative to HCV polymerase chain reaction in Africa. Although HCVcAg detection and quantification in DBS has a reduced sensitivity, its specificity and accuracy are good and it could therefore be used for scaling up HCV testing and care in resource‐limited African settings.
This Viewpoint introduces a proposed 5-year program from the Biden-Harris administration that would use direct-acting antivirals to eliminate hepatitis C in the United States.
Natural history of hepatitis C Westbrook, Rachel H; Dusheiko, Geoffrey
Journal of hepatology,
11/2014, Volume:
61, Issue:
1
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Summary There has long been evidence that hepatitis C can lead to persistent infection in a high proportion of infected individuals, and can progress to chronic liver disease, cirrhosis and ...hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The transition from acute to chronic hepatitis C is usually sub-clinical. Accurate studies of the time course for clearance of acute hepatitis C are difficult to carry out because of the silent onset of the acute disease. The likelihood of spontaneous HCV resolution is associated with several genetic factors, including IL28B inheritance and the DQB1∗ 0301 allele of the major histocompatibility complex class II. Most data suggest that resolution in the acute phase without progression to chronic disease is not accompanied by significant disease, but minor histological lesions have been observed in anti-HCV positive, HCV RNA negative individuals. The risk of reinfection remains a possibility after clearance of acute hepatitis C. High rates of sexually-transmitted infection are being reported in HIV positive men who have sex with men (MSM). Chronic infection with HCV is the leading cause of end-stage liver disease, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver related death in the Western world. The natural history of the chronic disease remains incompletely defined. It is generally a slowly progressive disease characterized by persistent hepatic inflammation, leading to the development of cirrhosis in approximately 10–20% of patients over 20–30 years of HCV infection. However, the published data indicate varying progression rates to cirrhosis. Overall, once cirrhosis has developed there is a 1–5% annual risk of HCC and a 3–6% annual risk of hepatic decompensation. Following an episode of decompensation the risk of death in the following year is between 15% and 20%. The high number of chronically infected individuals, the burden of disease, and the absence of a vaccine indicates that treatment will form part of the disease control but the impact, effectiveness and outcomes of treatment in various groups remain uncertain. Several studies and meta-analysis have concluded that eradication of HCV with antiviral therapy reduces the risk of HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis C, independent of fibrosis stage, but the risk is not eliminated.
Patients with 'late presentation' (LP) of chronic hepatitis C infection (HCV) have already developed advanced liver disease before receiving direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment. Even after ...successful treatment, the risk of morbidity and premature death remains elevated, leading to an unnecessary disease burden. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of LP within the prospective observational Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort (SCCS) and evaluate risk factors as determinants of LP.
Treatment-naïve participants of SCCS who received DAA treatment between 2014 and 2019 were included. Demographic, clinical and behavioural data were compared between the LP and non-LP strata. LP prevalence was calculated over time and by year. LASSO regression was used to identify potential risk factors for LP, and odds ratios were calculated by refitting logistic regression models.
In this explorative, retrospective case-control study using data of n = 5829 SCCS members, a total of 21.3% received their first HCV treatment. The cumulative LP prevalence decreased from mid-2015 and stabilised at 46.5% ( n = 579) by the end of 2019. Male gender, higher age and a history of alcohol overuse were associated with a higher risk of LP.
Despite the study's limitations, LP prevalence was higher than anticipated, considering Switzerland's availability period and universal access to DAAs. Therefore, any HCV LP should be viewed as a healthcare system failure, primarily in high-income economies. As LP is directly linked to the disease burden, it must be included as a mandatory parameter in surveillance response systems of HCV elimination programs.
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