Global rainfall erosivity projections for 2050 and 2070
Panagos, Panos ...
The erosive force of rainfall (rainfall erosivity) is a major driver of soil, nutrient losses worldwide and an important input for soil erosion assessments models. Here, we present a comprehensive ...set of future erosivity projections at a 30 arc-second (~1km2) spatial scale using 19 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) simulating three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for the periods 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. The future rainfall erosivity projections were obtained based on a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) approach relating rainfall depth to rainfall erosivity through a series of (bio)climatic covariates. Compared to the 2010 Global Rainfall erosivity baseline, we estimate a potential average increase in global rainfall erosivity between 26.2-28.8% for 2050 and 27-34.3% for 2070. Therefore, climate change and the consequential increase in rainfall erosivity is the main driver of the projected +30-66% increase in soil erosion rates by 2070.
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