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  • Fuzzy decision support system using risk analysis
    Buchmeister, Borut ...
    The paper presents a contribution to the construction of tools for decision-making suport in organizational systems from the uncertainty aspect. The developed theory of risk assessment is based on ... the adapted Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process. In decision-making under uncertainty, risk analysis aims at minimizing the failure to achieve the desired result. The paper present our original uncertainty estimation method. Each problem involving uncertainty and the subsequent risk appearance is devided into identified categories and factors of uncertainty. Tha basic method used in the numerical part of the evaluation is a two-pass Fuzzy AHP. The process is based on the determination of relations between particular risk categories and factors. The estimates are derived from pairwise comparison of factors belonging to each category. By using fuzzy numbers the consideration of possible errors of the estimator is taken into account. In the following stages the interval results obtained by this method are used for calculating the integral uncertainty value, which, incomparison with the boundary value, defines the risk of the process in question. Based on the "Uncertainty - Importance" relations special ABC focus diagrams are created. These diagrams serve for the classification of uncertainty factors, which provides a decision making part of the systematic approcah which is composed of three parts: analystical, process and decision making part.
    Source: Advances in production engineering & management. - ISSN 1854-6250 (Vol. 1, no. 1, 2006, str. 30-39)
    Type of material - article, component part
    Publish date - 2006
    Language - english
    COBISS.SI-ID - 10958870

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