Residual stresses are an important factor in the performance and stability of welded structures. This study investigates the characteristics and significance of residual stresses in MAG-welded ultrahigh-strength steel rectangular hollow sections. The research incorporates comprehensive X-ray diffraction residual stress measurements, electron backscatter diffraction analysis, statistical analyses, and finite element method simulations to provide valuable insights into the behaviour of welding residual stresses. The results reveal clear microstructural variations between the cold-formed corner and the flat side of the rectangular hollow section caused by welding heat input, emphasizing the need to consider these variations in residual stress assessments. Furthermore, the study examines the dependence of residual stresses on the steel grade, with higher strength steel exhibiting compressive stresses and lower strength materials experiencing tensile stresses in corner areas. Statistical analysis indicates that welding sequence and direction have negligible effects when applying the employed welding sequence. In any case, higher heat input leads to significantly larger residual stresses. Finally, the study presents a novel analytical model based on validated finite element simulations to predict the maximum variation of residual stresses depending on welding heat input. The findings provide valuable insights into the significance of welding residual stresses and their predictability. The comprehensive measurements, simulations and proposed models contributes to a better understanding of residual stress phenomena, facilitating the development of reliable design guidelines for welded structures in various engineering applications. Display omitted •S700 and S960 UHSS hollow sections were welded and XRD-measured.•Residual stresses in cold-formed corner depends on steel grade: more compressive in S960 steel.•S700 steel contains higher welding residual stresses with relative to yield strength.•Welding FEM-simulation with initial residual stress state was validated by XRD-results.•Novel analytical models are proposed for predicting residual stresses in UHSS hollow sections.