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Wang, Yun; Liu, Ying; Struthers, James; Lian, Min
Clinical infectious diseases, 02/2021, Volume: 72, Issue: 4Journal Article
Abstract Background A range of near-real-time online/mobile mapping dashboards and applications have been used to track the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic worldwide; however, small area-based spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 in the United States remain unknown. Methods We obtained county-based counts of COVID-19 cases confirmed in the United States from 22 January to 13 May 2020 (N = 1 386 050). We characterized the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic through detecting weekly hotspots of newly confirmed cases using Spatial and Space-Time Scan Statistics and quantifying the trends of incidence of COVID-19 by county characteristics using the Joinpoint analysis. Results Along with the national plateau reached in early April, COVID-19 incidence significantly decreased in the Northeast (estimated weekly percentage change EWPC: −16.6%) but continued increasing in the Midwest, South, and West (EWPCs: 13.2%, 5.6%, and 5.7%, respectively). Higher risks of clustering and incidence of COVID-19 were consistently observed in metropolitan versus rural counties, counties closest to core airports, the most populous counties, and counties with the highest proportion of racial/ethnic minorities. However, geographic differences in incidence have shrunk since early April, driven by a significant decrease in the incidence in these counties (EWPC range: −2.0%, −4.2%) and a consistent increase in other areas (EWPC range: 1.5–20.3%). Conclusions To substantially decrease the nationwide incidence of COVID-19, strict social-distancing measures should be continuously implemented, especially in geographic areas with increasing risks, including rural areas. Spatiotemporal characteristics and trends of COVID-19 should be considered in decision making on the timeline of re-opening for states and localities. After early April, COVID-19 incidence decreased in metropolitan areas, counties closest to airports, most populous counties, and counties with highest the proportion of racial/ethnic minorities but consistently increased in other areas. Spatiotemporal trends should be considered in decision making on local re-opening.
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