The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is the first coordinated climate model comparison for a warmer palaeoclimate with atmospheric CO2 significantly higher than pre-industrial ...concentrations. The simulations of the mid-Pliocene warm period show global warming of between 1.8 and 3.6 °C above pre-industrial surface air temperatures, with significant polar amplification. Here we perform energy balance calculations on all eight of the coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations within PlioMIP Experiment 2 to evaluate the causes of the increased temperatures and differences between the models. In the tropics simulated warming is dominated by greenhouse gas increases, with the cloud component of planetary albedo enhancing the warming in most of the models, but by widely varying amounts. The responses to mid-Pliocene climate forcing in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes are substantially different between the climate models, with the only consistent response being a warming due to increased greenhouse gases. In the high latitudes all the energy balance components become important, but the dominant warming influence comes from the clear sky albedo, only partially offset by the increases in the cooling impact of cloud albedo. This demonstrates the importance of specified ice sheet and high latitude vegetation boundary conditions and simulated sea ice and snow albedo feedbacks. The largest components in the overall uncertainty are associated with clouds in the tropics and polar clear sky albedo, particularly in sea ice regions. These simulations show that albedo feedbacks, particularly those of sea ice and ice sheets, provide the most significant enhancements to high latitude warming in the Pliocene.
Based on simulations with 15 climate models in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), the regional climate of East Asia (focusing on China) during the mid-Pliocene is investigated in ...this study. Compared to the pre-industrial, the multi-model ensemble mean (MMM) of all models shows the East Asian summer winds (EASWs) largely strengthen in monsoon China, and the East Asian winter winds (EAWWs) strengthen in south monsoon China but slightly weaken in north monsoon China in the mid-Pliocene. The MMM of all models also illustrates a warmer and wetter mid-Pliocene climate in China. The simulated weakened mid-Pliocene EAWWs in north monsoon China and intensified EASWs in monsoon China agree well with geological reconstructions. However, there is a large model-model discrepancy in simulating mid-Pliocene EAWW, which should be further addressed in the future work of PlioMIP.
During an interval of the Late Pliocene, referred to here as the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 million years ago), global mean temperature was similar to that predicted for the end ...of this century, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were higher than preindustrial levels. Sea level was also higher than today, implying a significant reduction in the extent of the ice sheets. Thus, the mPWP provides a natural laboratory in which to investigate the long-term response of the Earth's ice sheets and sea level in a warmer-than-present-day world. At present, our understanding of the Greenland ice sheet during the mPWP is generally based upon predictions using single climate and ice sheet models. Therefore, it is essential that the model dependency of these results is assessed. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) has brought together nine international modeling groups to simulate the warm climate of the Pliocene. Here we use the climatological fields derived from the results of the 15 PlioMIP climate models to force an offline ice sheet model. We show that mPWP ice sheet reconstructions are highly dependent upon the forcing climatology used, with Greenland reconstructions ranging from an ice-free state to a near modern ice sheet. An analysis of the surface albedo variability between the climate models over Greenland offers insights into the drivers of inter-model differences. As we demonstrate that the climate model dependency of our results is high, we highlight the necessity of data-based constraints of ice extent in developing our understanding of the mPWP Greenland ice sheet.
Recently, PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) was established to assess the ability of various climate models to simulate the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP), 3.3–3.0 million years ago. ...We use MIROC4m, a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM), and its atmospheric component alone to simulate the mPWP, utilizing up-to-date data sets designated in PlioMIP as boundary conditions and adhering to the protocols outlined. In this paper, a brief description of the model is given, followed by an explanation of the experimental design and implementation of the boundary conditions, such as topography and sea surface temperature. Initial results show increases of approximately 10°C in the zonal mean surface air temperature at high latitudes accompanied by a decrease in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient. Temperatures in the tropical regions increase more in the AOGCM. However, warming of the AOGCM sea surface in parts of the northern North Atlantic Ocean and Nordic Seas is less than that suggested by proxy data. An investigation of the model-data discrepancies and further model intercomparison studies can lead to a better understanding of the mid-Pliocene climate and of its role in assessing future climate change.
In this paper we explore the relationships between the modelled climate of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and that for doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide compared to the pre-industrial climate by ...analysing the output from an ensemble of runs from the MIROC3.2 GCM. Our results lend support to the idea in other recent work that the Antarctic is a useful place to look for historical data which can be used to validate models used for climate forecasting of future greenhouse gas induced climate changes, at local, regional and global scales. Good results may also be obtainable using tropical temperatures, particularly those over the ocean. While the greater area in the tropics makes them an attractive area for seeking data, polar amplification of temperature changes may mean that the Antarctic provides a clearer signal relative to the uncertainties in data and model results. Our result for Greenland is not so strong, possibly due to difficulties in accurately modelling the sea ice extent. The MIROC3.2 model shows an asymmetry in climate sensitivity calculated by decreasing rather than increasing the greenhouse gases, with 80% of the ensemble having a weaker cooling than warming. This asymmetry, if confirmed by other studies would mean that direct estimates of climate sensitivity from the LGM are likely to be underestimated by the order of half a degree. Our suspicion is, however, that this result may be highly model dependent. Analysis of the parameters varied in the model suggest the asymmetrical response may be linked to the ice in the clouds, which is therefore indicated as an important area for future research.
A series of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) marine carbon cycle sensitivity experiments is conducted to test the effect of different physical processes, as simulated by two atmosphere-ocean general ...circulation model (AOGCM) experiments, on atmospheric pCO2 . One AOGCM solution exhibits an increase in North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation under glacial conditions, whereas the other mimics an increase in Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) associated with a weaker NADW. None of these sensitivity experiments reproduces the observed magnitude of glacial/interglacial pCO2 changes. However, to explain the reconstructed vertical gradient of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) of 40 mmol m-3 a marked enhancement in AABW formation is required. Furthermore, for the enhanced AABW sensitivity experiment the simulated stable carbon isotope ratio (δ13 C) decreases by 0.4per thousand at intermediate depths in the South Atlantic in accordance with sedimentary evidence. The shift of deep and bottom water formation sites from the North Atlantic to the Southern Ocean increases the total preformed nutrient inventory, so that the lowered efficiency of Southern Ocean nutrient utilization in turn increases atmospheric pCO2 . This change eventually offsets the effect of an increased abyssal carbon pool due to stronger AABW formation. The effects of interhemispheric glacial sea-ice changes on atmospheric pCO2 oppose each other. Whereas, extended sea-ice coverage in the Southern Hemisphere reduces the air-sea gas exchange of CO2 in agreement with previous theoretical considerations, glacial advances of sea-ice in the Northern Hemisphere lead to a weakening of the oceanic carbon uptake through the physical pump. Due to enhanced gas solubility associated with lower sea surface temperature, both glacial experiments generate a reduction of atmospheric pCO2 by about 20-23 ppmv. The sensitivity experiments presented here demonstrate the presence of compensating effects of different physical processes in the ocean on glacial CO2 and the difficulty of finding a simple explanation of the glacial CO2 problem by invoking ocean dynamical changes.
Paleoclimate experiments using contemporary climate models are an effective measure to evaluate climate models. In recent years, Earth system models (ESMs) were developed to investigate carbon cycle ...climate feedbacks, as well as to project the future climate. Paleoclimate events can be suitable benchmarks to evaluate ESMs. The variation in aerosols associated with the volcanic eruptions provide a clear signal in forcing, which can be a good test to check the response of a climate model to the radiation changes. The variations in atmospheric CO2 level or changes in ice sheet extent can be used for evaluation as well. Here we present implementations of the paleoclimate experiments proposed by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5/Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP5/PMIP3) using MIROC-ESM, an ESM based on the global climate model MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). In this paper, experimental settings and spin-up procedures of the mid-Holocene, the Last Glacial Maximum, and the Last Millennium experiments are explained. The first two experiments are time slice experiments and the last one is a transient experiment. The complexity of the model requires various steps to correctly configure the experiments. Several basic outputs are also shown.
The mechanism maintaining widespread vegetation over the Sahara, 6000 years before present (6kBP), is investigated with an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) focusing on an impact of ...convection originating above the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The multiple cloud base Arakawa‐Schubert scheme (MCB) is implemented in the GCM, and it is shown that MCB significantly strengthens the impact of vegetation over the Sahara on precipitation in this region. If it is assumed that the whole Sahara was covered by vegetation at 6kBP, the total precipitation is sufficient to maintain vegetation over the south and northwest Sahara. High‐valued moist static energy air ranges from surface to the middle troposphere over the northern half of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in summer because of strong northward moisture transport in the lower troposphere. Convection originating above the PBL prevails in this region especially when the PBL top is lowered between night and early morning and strengthens the intrusion of the ITCZ into the Sahara. Then moisture is further transported northward by the African wave disturbances enhancing precipitation over the northwestern Sahara.
The surface conditions and atmospheric circulation over East Asia and the North Pacific during the last glacial maximum have been investigated using outputs from several coupled atmosphere-ocean ...general circulation model in the PMIP2 database. During the boreal summer, the weakening of the high pressure system over the North Pacific and less precipitation over East Asia are found in most models. The latter can be attributed to reduced moisture transport. During the boreal winter, an intensification of the Aleutian low and southward shift of the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere are found in most models. Some of the results in the present study seem to be consistent with the paleoclimatic reconstructions in the previous studies: pollen and lake-status records suggest dry climate over East Asia during the last glacial maximum, and part of the dust record has a signal that the East Asian winter monsoon was more strong and the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere was further south during the last glacial maximum than at the present day. This result confirms that a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model is a promising tool to understand not only the global climate but also the regional climate in the past.
The cause of low atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is important for understanding the role of the carbon cycle in climatic variation. We used an ocean general ...circulation model, coupled with a biogeochemical model, to examine the effect of sea‐ice expansion in the Southern Ocean on atmospheric CO2 concentration. We newly considered a possible additional effect of sea‐ice expansion in reducing biological activity as well as the effect of reduced gas‐exchange. We propose that the new effect might have had an opposite operation and canceled the gas‐exchange effect. Although there are some uncertainties arising from the absence of explicit sea‐ice model in this study, these results suggest that sea‐ice expansion might be far from the principal mechanism for low CO2 concentration during the LGM.
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