The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report concludes that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken substantially but is very unlikely to ...collapse in the 21st century. However, the assessment largely neglected Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, lacked a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, and was limited to the 21st century. Here in a community effort, improved estimates of GrIS mass loss are included in multicentennial projections using eight state‐of‐the‐science climate models, and an AMOC emulator is used to provide a probabilistic uncertainty assessment. We find that GrIS melting affects AMOC projections, even though it is of secondary importance. By years 2090–2100, the AMOC weakens by 18% −3%, −34%; 90% probability in an intermediate greenhouse‐gas mitigation scenario and by 37% −15%, −65% under continued high emissions. Afterward, it stabilizes in the former but continues to decline in the latter to −74% +4%, −100% by 2290–2300, with a 44% likelihood of an AMOC collapse. This result suggests that an AMOC collapse can be avoided by CO2 mitigation.
Key Points
This is the first model intercomparison concerning climate change including Greenland melt and a probabilistic uncertainty assessment
Impact of Greenland melt on future overturning circulation is small but nonnegligible especially for high‐end global warming scenarios
Likelihood of a full overturning collapse remains exceptionally small if global warming is limited to less than 5 K
Global warming is expected to decrease ocean oxygen concentrations by less solubility of surface ocean and change in ocean circulation. The associated expansion of the oxygen minimum zone would have ...adverse impacts on marine organisms and ocean biogeochemical cycles. Oxygen reduction is expected to persist for a thousand years or more, even after atmospheric carbon dioxide stops rising. However, long‐term changes in ocean oxygen and circulation are still unclear. Here we simulate multimillennium changes in ocean circulation and oxygen under doubling and quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, using a fully coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model and an offline biogeochemical model. In the first 500 years, global oxygen concentration decreases, consistent with previous studies. Thereafter, however, the oxygen concentration in the deep ocean globally recovers and overshoots at the end of the simulations, despite surface oxygen decrease and weaker Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. This is because, after the initial cessation, the recovery and overshooting of deep ocean convection in the Weddell Sea enhance ventilation and supply oxygen‐rich surface waters to deep ocean. Another contributor to deep ocean oxygenation is seawater warming, which reduces the export production and shifts the organic matter remineralization to the upper water column. Our results indicate that the change in ocean circulation in the Southern Ocean potentially drives millennial‐scale oxygenation in deep ocean, which is opposite to the centennial‐scale global oxygen reduction and general expectation.
Key Points
Deep ocean oxygen overshoots pre‐industrial condition under 2 and 4 × CO2 level
Enhanced deep convection in the Weddell Sea cause global deep ocean oxygenation
Warming and slow freshening of deep water cause enhanced deep convection
Paleo proxy data suggest that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) was shallower and weaker at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) than at present. In this study, we have identified the ...existence of a thermal threshold of the AMOC which may explain why many coupled climate models fail to simulate the weaker AMOC during the LGM. By using results obtained from a coupled climate model and conducting sensitivity simulations with an ocean general circulation model, we found that the sudden transition from the present‐day AMOC to the weaker glacial AMOC occurs when we gradually change the degree of surface cooling from present‐day to glacial conditions. This result is related to response of deep convection in the northern North Atlantic Ocean; moderate cooling enhances deep convection whereas sufficient cooling results in total covering of sea ice there and suppression of deep convection. The findings indicate the existence of a thermal threshold controlling the AMOC, where the present‐day‐type AMOC suddenly shifts to the weaker glacial AMOC once the surface cooling exceeds this threshold. We also demonstrate that wind stress forcing plays a critical role in controlling the value of the thermal threshold. Our study suggests that slight differences in the degree of surface cooling or wind stress forcing for LGM simulations could lead to the very different response of the AMOC during the LGM as reported in previous LGM simulations.
Key Points
The existence of thermal threshold of AMOC is identified in this study
The wind stress plays a critical role in controlling thermal threshold value
Thermal threshold explains different glacial responses of AMOC among models
We investigate the relationship between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and climate sensitivity across the PMIP2 multi‐model ensemble of GCMs, and find a correlation between tropical temperature and ...climate sensitivity which is statistically significant and physically plausible. We use this relationship, together with the LGM temperature reconstruction of Annan and Hargreaves (2012), to generate estimates for the equilibrium climate sensitivity. We estimate the equilibrium climate sensitivity to be about 2.5°C with a high probability of being under 4°C, though these results are subject to several important caveats. The forthcoming PMIP3/CMIP5 models were not considered in this analysis, as very few LGM simulations are currently available from these models. We propose that these models will provide a useful validation of the correlation presented here.
Key Points
Climate sensitivity is estimated using data and models from the LGM
The best estimate is about 2.5C with a high probability of being under 4C
Consistent results are obtained with Bayesian and Frequentist methods
The ocean thermohaline circulation is important for transports of heat and the carbon cycle. We present results from PMIP2 coupled atmosphere‐ocean simulations with four climate models that are also ...being used for future assessments. These models give very different glacial thermohaline circulations even with comparable circulations for present. An integrated approach using results from these simulations for Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) with proxies of the state of the glacial surface and deep Atlantic supports the interpretation from nutrient tracers that the boundary between North Atlantic Deep Water and Antarctic Bottom Water was much shallower during this period. There is less constraint from this integrated reconstruction regarding the strength of the LGM North Atlantic overturning circulation, although together they suggest that it was neither appreciably stronger nor weaker than modern. Two model simulations identify a role for sea ice in both hemispheres in driving the ocean response to glacial forcing.
Between approximately 17,500 and 15,000 years ago, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation weakened substantially in response to meltwater discharges from disintegrating Northern Hemispheric ...glacial ice sheets. The global effects of this reorganization of poleward heat flow in the North Atlantic extended to Antarctica and the North Pacific. Here we present evidence from North Pacific paleo surface proxy data, a compilation of marine radiocarbon age ventilation records, and global climate model simulations to suggest that during the early stages of the Last Glacial Termination, deep water extending to a depth of approximately 2500 to 3000 meters was formed in the North Pacific. A switch of deepwater formation between the North Atlantic and the North Pacific played a key role in regulating poleward oceanic heat transport during the Last Glacial Termination.
In this study an integrated simulation of the global distribution and the radiative forcing of soil dust aerosols at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is performed with an aerosol climate model, ...SPRINTARS. It is compared with another simulation for the present climate condition. The global total emission flux of soil dust aerosols at the LGM is simulated to be about 2.4 times as large as that in the present climate, and the simulated deposition flux is in general agreement with estimations from ice core and marine sediment samplings though it appears to be underestimated over the Antarctic. The calculated direct radiative forcings of soil dust aerosols at the LGM is close to zero at the tropopause and −0.4 W m−2 at the surface. These radiative forcings are about twice as large as those in the present climate. SPRINTARS also includes the microphysical parameterizations of the cloud-aerosol interaction both for liquid water and ice crystals, which affect the radiation budget. The positive radiative forcing from the indirect effect of soil dust aerosols is mainly caused by their properties to act as ice nuclei. This effect is simulated to be smaller (−0.9 W m−2) at the LGM than in the present. It is suggested that atmospheric dust might contribute to the cold climate during the glacial periods both through the direct and indirect effects, relative to the interglacial periods.
The observed dramatic decrease in September sea ice extent (SIE) has been widely discussed in the scientific literature. Though there is qualitative agreement between observations and ensemble ...members of the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), it is concerning that the observed trend (1979-2010) is not captured by any ensemble member. The potential sources of this discrepancy include: observational uncertainty, physical model limitations and vigorous natural climate variability. The latter has received less attention and is difficult to assess using the relatively short observational sea ice records. In this study multi-centennial pre-industrial control simulations with five CMIP3 climate models are used to investigate the role that the Arctic oscillation (AO), the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) play in decadal sea ice variability. Further, we use the models to determine the impact that these sources of variability have had on SIE over both the era of satellite observation (1979-2010) and an extended observational record (1953-2010). There is little evidence of a relationship between the AO and SIE in the models. However, we find that both the AMO and AMOC indices are significantly correlated with SIE in all the models considered. Using sensitivity statistics derived from the models, assuming a linear relationship, we attribute 0.5-3.1% decade of the 10.1% decade decline in September SIE (1979-2010) to AMO driven variability.
Liquid water is one of the most important materials affecting the climate and habitability of a terrestrial planet. Liquid water vaporizes entirely when planets receive insolation above a certain ...critical value, which is called the runaway greenhouse threshold. This threshold forms the inner most limit of the habitable zone. Here we investigate the effects of the distribution of surface water on the runaway greenhouse threshold for Earth‐sized planets using a three‐dimensional dynamic atmosphere model. We considered a 1 bar atmosphere whose composition is similar to the current Earth's atmosphere with a zonally uniform distribution of surface water. As previous studies have already showed, we also recognized two climate regimes: the land planet regime, which has dry low‐latitude and wet high‐latitude regions, and the aqua planet regime, which is globally wet. We showed that each regime is controlled by the width of the Hadley circulation, the amount of surface water, and the planetary topography. We found that the runaway greenhouse threshold varies continuously with the surface water distribution from about 130% (an aqua planet) to 180% (the extreme case of a land planet) of the present insolation at Earth's orbit. Our results indicate that the inner edge of the habitable zone is not a single sharp boundary, but a border whose location varies depending on planetary surface condition, such as the amount of surface water. Since land planets have wider habitable zones and less cloud cover, land planets would be good targets for future observations investigating planetary habitability.
Key Points
The onset of the runaway greenhouse effect depends strongly on the surface water distribution
The runaway threshold increases as the surface water distribution retreats toward higher latitude outside the Hadley circulation
The lower the water amount on a terrestrial planet, the longer the planet remains in habitable condition
AOGCM simulations of the mid‐Holocene tend to largely underestimate annual mean temperature over land in northern hemisphere compared to that of paleodata reconstruction. While the vegetation ...feedback has not been yet quantitatively reported, its neglect is suggested to be one of the cause of this underestimation. Here, we perform several experiments using an atmosphere‐ocean‐vegetation coupled model and quantify a vegetation‐induced feedback in the mid‐Holocene climate using MIROC GCM. Our result indicates an annual warming of +1.3K over land north of 40°N in the mid‐Holocene, much larger than the previous GCM results. This warming is due to direct amplification of warming over high latitude land through increases in vegetation and reduced albedo during the summer and indirect amplification through sea‐ice feedback in autumn and winter and snow albedo feedback in spring. These feedback were not properly represented in previous GCM analysis.
Key Points
GCM simulated the mid‐Holocene annual warming shown in proxy successfully
Mid‐Holocene warming over land occurs mostly through vegetation feedback
Especially, warming occurs in all seasons but by different feedback processes
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