The Leading Causes of Death in the US for 2020 Ahmad, Farida B; Anderson, Robert N
JAMA : the journal of the American Medical Association,
05/2021, Letnik:
325, Številka:
18
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
This Viewpoint from the US National Center for Health Statistics reports a 2020 mortality estimate 17.7% higher than that of 2019, with leading causes of death comprising heart disease, cancer, and ...COVID-19.
In this analysis of current data from a nationally representative U.S. survey, smoking was associated with a reduction in life expectancy of 10 years, and the excess risk was reduced by about 90% ...among smokers who quit by 40 years of age.
Smoking is a major cause of premature death worldwide.
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Despite substantial declines in the prevalence of smoking by adults, estimates based on extrapolation from studies in the 1980s suggest that for those between 35 and 69 years of age, smoking currently accounts for almost 200,000 deaths annually in the United States, or about one fourth of all deaths in this age group.
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The prevalence of smoking peaked around 1960 among U.S. men and about two decades later among U.S. women.
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Rates of death from vascular disease have decreased substantially since the 1980s owing to reductions in smoking . . .
The American Cancer Society, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Cancer Institute, and North American Association of Central Cancer Registries collaborate to provide annual updates ...on cancer incidence and mortality and trends by cancer type, sex, age group, and racial/ethnic group in the United States. In this report, we also examine trends in stage-specific survival for melanoma of the skin (melanoma).
Incidence data for all cancers from 2001 through 2017 and survival data for melanoma cases diagnosed during 2001-2014 and followed-up through 2016 were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention- and National Cancer Institute-funded population-based cancer registry programs compiled by the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. Data on cancer deaths from 2001 to 2018 were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics' National Vital Statistics System. Trends in age-standardized incidence and death rates and 2-year relative survival were estimated by joinpoint analysis, and trends in incidence and mortality were expressed as average annual percent change (AAPC) during the most recent 5 years (2013-2017 for incidence and 2014-2018 for mortality).
Overall cancer incidence rates (per 100 000 population) for all ages during 2013-2017 were 487.4 among males and 422.4 among females. During this period, incidence rates remained stable among males but slightly increased in females (AAPC = 0.2%, 95% confidence interval CI = 0.1% to 0.2%). Overall cancer death rates (per 100 000 population) during 2014-2018 were 185.5 among males and 133.5 among females. During this period, overall death rates decreased in both males (AAPC = -2.2%, 95% CI = -2.5% to -1.9%) and females (AAPC = -1.7%, 95% CI = -2.1% to -1.4%); death rates decreased for 11 of the 19 most common cancers among males and for 14 of the 20 most common cancers among females, but increased for 5 cancers in each sex. During 2014-2018, the declines in death rates accelerated for lung cancer and melanoma, slowed down for colorectal and female breast cancers, and leveled off for prostate cancer. Among children younger than age 15 years and adolescents and young adults aged 15-39 years, cancer death rates continued to decrease in contrast to the increasing incidence rates. Two-year relative survival for distant-stage skin melanoma was stable for those diagnosed during 2001-2009 but increased by 3.1% (95% CI = 2.8% to 3.5%) per year for those diagnosed during 2009-2014, with comparable trends among males and females.
Cancer death rates in the United States continue to decline overall and for many cancer types, with the decline accelerated for lung cancer and melanoma. For several other major cancers, however, death rates continue to increase or previous declines in rates have slowed or ceased. Moreover, overall incidence rates continue to increase among females, children, and adolescents and young adults. These findings inform efforts related to prevention, early detection, and treatment and for broad and equitable implementation of effective interventions, especially among under resourced populations.
Background
The American Cancer Society, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Cancer Institute, and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries collaborate to ...provide annual updates on cancer occurrence and trends in the United States.
Methods
Data on new cancer diagnoses during 2001 through 2016 were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention‐funded and National Cancer Institute‐funded population‐based cancer registry programs and compiled by the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. Data on cancer deaths during 2001 through 2017 were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics' National Vital Statistics System. Trends in incidence and death rates for all cancers combined and for the leading cancer types by sex, racial/ethnic group, and age were estimated by joinpoint analysis and characterized by the average annual percent change during the most recent 5 years (2012‐2016 for incidence and 2013‐2017 for mortality).
Results
Overall, cancer incidence rates decreased 0.6% on average per year during 2012 through 2016, but trends differed by sex, racial/ethnic group, and cancer type. Among males, cancer incidence rates were stable overall and among non‐Hispanic white males but decreased in other racial/ethnic groups; rates increased for 5 of the 17 most common cancers, were stable for 7 cancers (including prostate), and decreased for 5 cancers (including lung and bronchus lung and colorectal). Among females, cancer incidence rates increased during 2012 to 2016 in all racial/ethnic groups, increasing on average 0.2% per year; rates increased for 8 of the 18 most common cancers (including breast), were stable for 6 cancers (including colorectal), and decreased for 4 cancers (including lung). Overall, cancer death rates decreased 1.5% on average per year during 2013 to 2017, decreasing 1.8% per year among males and 1.4% per year among females. During 2013 to 2017, cancer death rates decreased for all cancers combined among both males and females in each racial/ethnic group, for 11 of the 19 most common cancers among males (including lung and colorectal), and for 14 of the 20 most common cancers among females (including lung, colorectal, and breast). The largest declines in death rates were observed for melanoma of the skin (decreasing 6.1% per year among males and 6.3% among females) and lung (decreasing 4.8% per year among males and 3.7% among females). Among children younger than 15 years, cancer incidence rates increased an average of 0.8% per year during 2012 to 2016, and cancer death rates decreased an average of 1.4% per year during 2013 to 2017. Among adolescents and young adults aged 15 to 39 years, cancer incidence rates increased an average of 0.9% per year during 2012 to 2016, and cancer death rates decreased an average of 1.0% per year during 2013 to 2017.
Conclusions
Although overall cancer death rates continue to decline, incidence rates are leveling off among males and are increasing slightly among females. These trends reflect population changes in cancer risk factors, screening test use, diagnostic practices, and treatment advances. Many cancers can be prevented or treated effectively if they are found early. Population‐based cancer incidence and mortality data can be used to inform efforts to decrease the cancer burden in the United States and regularly monitor progress toward goals.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the American Cancer Society, the National Cancer Institute, and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries collaborate to provide annual updates on cancer occurrence and trends in the United States and to address a special topic of interest. Part I of this report focuses on national cancer statistics, and part II characterizes progress in achieving select Healthy People 2020 objectives related to 4 common cancers.
The American Cancer Society (ACS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) ...collaborate to provide annual updates on cancer occurrence and trends in the United States. This Annual Report highlights survival rates. Data were from the CDC- and NCI-funded population-based cancer registry programs and compiled by NAACCR. Trends in age-standardized incidence and death rates for all cancers combined and for the leading cancer types by sex were estimated by joinpoint analysis and expressed as annual percent change. We used relative survival ratios and adjusted relative risk of death after a diagnosis of cancer (hazard ratios HRs) using Cox regression model to examine changes or differences in survival over time and by sociodemographic factors.
Overall cancer death rates from 2010 to 2014 decreased by 1.8% (95% confidence interval CI = -1.8 to -1.8) per year in men, by 1.4% (95% CI = -1.4 to -1.3) per year in women, and by 1.6% (95% CI = -2.0 to -1.3) per year in children. Death rates decreased for 11 of the 16 most common cancer types in men and for 13 of the 18 most common cancer types in women, including lung, colorectal, female breast, and prostate, whereas death rates increased for liver (men and women), pancreas (men), brain (men), and uterine cancers. In contrast, overall incidence rates from 2009 to 2013 decreased by 2.3% (95% CI = -3.1 to -1.4) per year in men but stabilized in women. For several but not all cancer types, survival statistically significantly improved over time for both early and late-stage diseases. Between 1975 and 1977, and 2006 and 2012, for example, five-year relative survival for distant-stage disease statistically significantly increased from 18.7% (95% CI = 16.9% to 20.6%) to 33.6% (95% CI = 32.2% to 35.0%) for female breast cancer but not for liver cancer (from 1.1%, 95% CI = 0.3% to 2.9%, to 2.3%, 95% CI = 1.6% to 3.2%). Survival varied by race/ethnicity and state. For example, the adjusted relative risk of death for all cancers combined was 33% (HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.32 to 1.34) higher in non-Hispanic blacks and 51% (HR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.46 to 1.56) higher in non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native compared with non-Hispanic whites.
Cancer death rates continue to decrease in the United States. However, progress in reducing death rates and improving survival is limited for several cancer types, underscoring the need for intensified efforts to discover new strategies for prevention, early detection, and treatment and to apply proven preventive measures broadly and equitably.
Abstract
Background
The American Cancer Society, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Cancer Institute, and North American Association of Central Cancer Registries provide annual ...updates on cancer occurrence and trends by cancer type, sex, race, ethnicity, and age in the United States. This year’s report highlights the cancer burden among men and women age 20–49 years.
Methods
Incidence data for the years 1999 to 2015 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention- and National Cancer Institute–funded population-based cancer registry programs compiled by the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries and death data for the years 1999 to 2016 from the National Vital Statistics System were used. Trends in age-standardized incidence and death rates, estimated by joinpoint, were expressed as average annual percent change.
Results
Overall cancer incidence rates (per 100 000) for all ages during 2011–2015 were 494.3 among male patients and 420.5 among female patients; during the same time period, incidence rates decreased 2.1% (95% confidence interval CI = −2.6% to −1.6%) per year in men and were stable in females. Overall cancer death rates (per 100 000) for all ages during 2012–2016 were 193.1 among male patients and 137.7 among female patients. During 2012–2016, overall cancer death rates for all ages decreased 1.8% (95% CI = −1.8% to −1.8%) per year in male patients and 1.4% (95% CI = −1.4% to −1.4%) per year in females. Important changes in trends were stabilization of thyroid cancer incidence rates in women and rapid declines in death rates for melanoma of the skin (both sexes). Among adults age 20–49 years, overall cancer incidence rates were substantially lower among men (115.3 per 100 000) than among women (203.3 per 100 000); cancers with the highest incidence rates (per 100 000) among men were colon and rectum (13.1), testis (10.7), and melanoma of the skin (9.8), and among women were breast (73.2), thyroid (28.4), and melanoma of the skin (14.1). During 2011 to 2015, the incidence of all invasive cancers combined among adults age 20–49 years decreased −0.7% (95% CI = −1.0% to −0.4%) among men and increased among women (1.3%, 95% CI = 0.7% to 1.9%). The death rate for (per 100 000) adults age 20–49 years for all cancer sites combined during 2012 to 2016 was 22.8 among men and 27.1 among women; during the same time period, death rates decreased 2.3% (95% CI = −2.4% to −2.2%) per year among men and 1.7% (95% CI = −1.8% to −1.6%) per year among women.
Conclusions
Among people of all ages and ages 20–49 years, favorable as well as unfavorable trends in site-specific cancer incidence were observed, whereas trends in death rates were generally favorable. Characterizing the cancer burden may inform research and cancer-control efforts.
The American Cancer Society (ACS), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Cancer Institute (NCI), and North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) collaborate ...annually to produce updated, national cancer statistics. This Annual Report includes a focus on breast cancer incidence by subtype using new, national-level data.
Population-based cancer trends and breast cancer incidence by molecular subtype were calculated. Breast cancer subtypes were classified using tumor biomarkers for hormone receptor (HR) and human growth factor-neu receptor (HER2) expression.
Overall cancer incidence decreased for men by 1.8% annually from 2007 to 2011 corrected. Rates for women were stable from 1998 to 2011. Within these trends there was racial/ethnic variation, and some sites have increasing rates. Among children, incidence rates continued to increase by 0.8% per year over the past decade while, like adults, mortality declined. HR+/HER2- breast cancers, the subtype with the best prognosis, were the most common for all races/ethnicities with highest rates among non-Hispanic white women, local stage cases, and low poverty areas (92.7, 63.51, and 98.69 per 100000 non-Hispanic white women, respectively). HR+/HER2- breast cancer incidence rates were strongly, positively correlated with mammography use, particularly for non-Hispanic white women (Pearson 0.57, two-sided P < .001). Triple-negative breast cancers, the subtype with the worst prognosis, were highest among non-Hispanic black women (27.2 per 100000 non-Hispanic black women), which is reflected in high rates in southeastern states.
Progress continues in reducing the burden of cancer in the United States. There are unique racial/ethnic-specific incidence patterns for breast cancer subtypes; likely because of both biologic and social risk factors, including variation in mammography use. Breast cancer subtype analysis confirms the capacity of cancer registries to adjust national collection standards to produce clinically relevant data based on evolving medical knowledge.
SARS-CoV-2 is responsible for the current COVID-19 pandemic. On the basis of our analysis of hepatitis C virus and coronavirus replication, and the molecular structures and activities of viral ...inhibitors, we previously demonstrated that three nucleotide analogues (the triphosphates of Sofosbuvir, Alovudine, and AZT) inhibit the SARS-CoV RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp). We also demonstrated that a library of additional nucleotide analogues terminate RNA synthesis catalyzed by the SARS-CoV-2 RdRp, a well-established drug target for COVID-19. Here, we used polymerase extension experiments to demonstrate that the active triphosphate form of Sofosbuvir (an FDA-approved hepatitis C drug) is incorporated by SARS-CoV-2 RdRp and blocks further incorporation. Using the molecular insight gained from the previous studies, we selected the active triphosphate forms of six other antiviral agents, Alovudine, Tenofovir alafenamide, AZT, Abacavir, Lamivudine, and Emtricitabine, for evaluation as inhibitors of the SARS-CoV-2 RdRp and demonstrated the ability of these viral polymerase inhibitors to be incorporated by SARS-CoV-2 RdRp, where they terminate further polymerase extension with varying efficiency. These results provide a molecular basis for inhibition of the SARS-CoV-2 RdRp by these nucleotide analogues. If sufficient efficacy of some of these FDA-approved drugs in inhibiting viral replication in cell culture is established, they may be explored as potential COVID-19 therapeutics.
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