The aim of this study was to develop a score to predict the outcome for patients brought to hospital following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA).
All patients recorded in the German Resuscitation ...Registry (GRR) who suffered OHCA 2010–2017, who had ROSC or ongoing CPR at hospital admission were included. The study population was divided into development (2010–2016: 7985) and validation dataset (2017: 1806). Binary logistic regression analysis was used to derive the score. The probability of hospital discharge with good neurological outcome was defined as 1/(1 + e−X), where X is the weighted sum of independent variables.
The following variables were found to have a significant positive (+) or negative (−) impact: age 61–70 years (−0·5), 71–80 (−0·9), 81–90 (−1·3) and > = 91 (−2·3); initial PEA (−0·9) and asystole (−1·4); presumable trauma (−1·1); mechanical CPR (−0·3); application of adrenalin > 0 − < 2 mg (−1·1), 2 − <4 mg (−1·6), 4 − < 6 mg (−2·1), 6 − < 8 mg (−2·5) and > = 8 mg (−2·8); pre emergency status without previous disease (+0·5) or minor disease (+0·2); location at nursing home (−0·6), working place/school (+0·7), doctor’s office (+0·7) and public place (+0·3); application of amiodarone (+0·4); hospital admission with ongoing CPR (−1·9) or normotension (+0·4); witnessed arrest (+0·6); time from collapse until start CPR 2 − < 10 min (−0·3) and > = 10 min (−0·5); duration of CPR <5 min (+0·6). The AUC in the development dataset was 0·88 (95% CI 0·87–0·89) and in the validation dataset 0·88 (95% CI 0·86–0·90).
The CaRdiac Arrest Survival Score (CRASS) represents a tool for calculating the probability of survival with good neurological function for patients brought to hospital following OHCA.
Wetlands are the world's largest natural source of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. The strong sensitivity of methane emissions to environmental factors such as soil temperature and moisture has ...led to concerns about potential positive feedbacks to climate change. This risk is particularly relevant at high latitudes, which have experienced pronounced warming and where thawing permafrost could potentially liberate large amounts of labile carbon over the next 100 years. However, global models disagree as to the magnitude and spatial distribution of emissions, due to uncertainties in wetland area and emissions per unit area and a scarcity of in situ observations. Recent intensive field campaigns across the West Siberian Lowland (WSL) make this an ideal region over which to assess the performance of large-scale process-based wetland models in a high-latitude environment. Here we present the results of a follow-up to the Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP), focused on the West Siberian Lowland (WETCHIMP-WSL). We assessed 21 models and 5 inversions over this domain in terms of total CH4 emissions, simulated wetland areas, and CH4 fluxes per unit wetland area and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux data set, several wetland maps, and two satellite surface water products. We found that (a) despite the large scatter of individual estimates, 12-year mean estimates of annual total emissions over the WSL from forward models (5.34 ± 0.54 Tg CH4 yr-1), inversions (6.06 ± 1.22 Tg CH4 yr-1), and in situ observations (3.91 ± 1.29 Tg CH4 yr-1) largely agreed; (b) forward models using surface water products alone to estimate wetland areas suffered from severe biases in CH4 emissions; (c) the interannual time series of models that lacked either soil thermal physics appropriate to the high latitudes or realistic emissions from unsaturated peatlands tended to be dominated by a single environmental driver (inundation or air temperature), unlike those of inversions and more sophisticated forward models; (d) differences in biogeochemical schemes across models had relatively smaller influence over performance; and (e) multiyear or multidecade observational records are crucial for evaluating models' responses to long-term climate change.
We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles ...to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation-Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2-33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9-112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of −14 to −19 Pg C °C−1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10-18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or mitigate C release from permafrost soils, but serves as a data-constrained estimate on the forced, large-scale permafrost C response to warming.
During the last decade, there has been a growing interest in understanding food's digestive fate in order to strengthen the possible effects of food on human health. Ideally, food digestion should be ...studied in vivo on humans but this is not always ethically and financially possible. Therefore, simple in vitro digestion models mimicking the gastrointestinal tract have been proposed as alternatives to in vivo experiments. Thus, it is no surprise that these models are increasingly used by the scientific community, although their various limitations to fully mirror the complexity of the digestive tract. Therefore, the objective of this article was to call upon the collective experiences of scientists involved in Infogest (an international network on food digestion) to review and reflect on the applications of in vitro digestion models, the parameters assessed in such studies and the physiological relevance of the data generated when compared to in vivo data. The authors provide a comprehensive review in vitro and in vivo digestion studies investigating the digestion of macronutrients (i.e., proteins, lipids, and carbohydrates) as well as studies of the bioaccessibility and bioavailability of micronutrients and phytochemicals. The main conclusion is that evidences show that despite the simplicity of in vitro models they are often very useful in predicting outcomes of the digestion in vivo. However, this has relies on the complexity of in vitro models and their tuning toward answering specific questions related to human digestion physiology, which leaves a vast room for future studies and improvements.
Over the last 40 years, Lake Chad, once the sixth largest lake in the world, has decreased by more than 90% in area. In this study, we use a hydrological model coupled with a lake/wetland algorithm ...to simulate the effects of lake bathymetry, human water use, and decadal climate variability on the lake’s level, surface area, and water storage. In addition to the effects of persistent droughts and increasing irrigation withdrawals on the shrinking, we find that the lake’s unique bathymetry—which allows its division into two smaller lakes—has made it more vulnerable to water loss. Unfortunately the lake’s split is favored by the 1952–2006 climatology. Failure of the lake to remerge with renewed rainfall in the 1990s following the drought years of the 1970s and 1980s is a consequence of irrigation withdrawals. Under current climate and water use, a full recovery of the lake is unlikely without an inter-basin water transfer. Breaching the barrier separating the north and south lakes would reduce the amount of supplemental water needed for recovery.
The evolutionarily conserved default mode network (DMN) is a distributed set of brain regions coactivated during resting states that is vulnerable to brain disorders. How disease affects the DMN is ...unknown, but detailed anatomical descriptions could provide clues. Mice offer an opportunity to investigate structural connectivity of the DMN across spatial scales with cell-type resolution. We co-registered maps from functional magnetic resonance imaging and axonal tracing experiments into the 3D Allen mouse brain reference atlas. We find that the mouse DMN consists of preferentially interconnected cortical regions. As a population, DMN layer 2/3 (L2/3) neurons project almost exclusively to other DMN regions, whereas L5 neurons project in and out of the DMN. In the retrosplenial cortex, a core DMN region, we identify two L5 projection types differentiated by in- or out-DMN targets, laminar position, and gene expression. These results provide a multi-scale description of the anatomical correlates of the mouse DMN.
Display omitted
•Mouse resting-state default mode network anatomy described at high resolution in 3D•Systematic axon tracing shows cortical DMN regions are preferentially interconnected•Layer 2/3 DMN neurons project mostly in the DMN; layer 5 neurons project in and out•Retrosplenial cortex contains distinct types of in- and out-DMN projection neurons
The default mode network is vulnerable to brain disorders, but details of its anatomy and connectivity are coarse. Whitesell et al. use modern neuroanatomical tools in the mouse, including whole-brain imaging and viral tracing, to provide high-resolution anatomical descriptions and identify cell type correlates of this conserved brain network.
Soil temperature (Ts) change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. On seasonal and interannual timescales, the variability of Ts determines the active-layer depth, which regulates ...hydrological soil properties and biogeochemical processes. On the multi-decadal scale, increasing Ts not only drives permafrost thaw/retreat but can also trigger and accelerate the decomposition of soil organic carbon. The magnitude of permafrost carbon feedbacks is thus closely linked to the rate of change of soil thermal regimes. In this study, we used nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, all forced by different observation-based climate forcing during the period 1960–2000, to characterize the warming rate of Ts in permafrost regions. There is a large spread of Ts trends at 20 cm depth across the models, with trend values ranging from 0.010 ± 0.003 to 0.031 ± 0.005 °C yr−1. Most models show smaller increase in Ts with increasing depth. Air temperature (Tsub>a) and longwave downward radiation (LWDR) are the main drivers of Ts trends, but their relative contributions differ amongst the models. Different trends of LWDR used in the forcing of models can explain 61 % of their differences in Ts trends, while trends of Ta only explain 5 % of the differences in Ts trends. Uncertain climate forcing contributes a larger uncertainty in Ts trends (0.021 ± 0.008 °C yr−1, mean ± standard deviation) than the uncertainty of model structure (0.012 ± 0.001 °C yr−1), diagnosed from the range of response between different models, normalized to the same forcing. In addition, the loss rate of near-surface permafrost area, defined as total area where the maximum seasonal active-layer thickness (ALT) is less than 3 m loss rate, is found to be significantly correlated with the magnitude of the trends of Ts at 1 m depth across the models (R = −0.85, P = 0.003), but not with the initial total near-surface permafrost area (R = −0.30, P = 0.438). The sensitivity of the total boreal near-surface permafrost area to Ts at 1 m is estimated to be of −2.80 ± 0.67 million km2 °C−1. Finally, by using two long-term LWDR data sets and relationships between trends of LWDR and Ts across models, we infer an observation-constrained total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprising between 39 ± 14 × 103 and 75 ± 14 × 103 km2 yr−1 from 1960 to 2000. This corresponds to 9–18 % degradation of the current permafrost area.
Abstract
We present James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Near Infrared Spectrograph (NIRSpec) integral field spectroscopy of the nearby luminous infrared galaxy NGC 7469. We take advantage of the high ...spatial/spectral resolution and wavelength coverage of JWST/NIRSpec to study the 3.3
μ
m neutral polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) grain emission on ∼200 pc scales. A clear change in the average grain properties between the star-forming ring and the central AGN is found. Regions in the vicinity of the AGN, with Ne
iii
/Ne
ii
> 0.25, tend to have larger grain sizes and lower aliphatic-to-aromatic (3.4/3.3) ratios, indicating that smaller grains are preferentially removed by photodestruction in the vicinity of the AGN. PAH emission at the nucleus is weak and shows a low 11.3/3.3 PAH ratio. We find an overall suppression of the total PAH emission relative to the ionized gas in the central 1 kpc region of the AGN in NGC 7469 compared to what has been observed with Spitzer on 3 kpc scales. However, the fractional 3.3
μ
m–to–total PAH power is enhanced in the starburst ring, possibly due to a variety of physical effects on subkiloparsec scales, including recurrent fluorescence of small grains or multiple photon absorption by large grains. Finally, the IFU data show that while the 3.3
μ
m PAH-derived star formation rate (SFR) in the ring is 27% higher than that inferred from the Ne
ii
and Ne
iii
emission lines, the integrated SFR derived from the 3.3
μ
m feature would be underestimated by a factor of 2 due to the deficit of PAHs around the AGN, as might occur if a composite system like NGC 7469 were to be observed at high redshift.
We used a process-based model to examine the role of spatial heterogeneity of surface and sub-surface water on the carbon budget of the wetlands of the West Siberian Lowland over the period ...1948–2010. We found that, while surface heterogeneity (fractional saturated area) had little overall effect on estimates of the region's carbon fluxes, sub-surface heterogeneity (spatial variations in water table depth) played an important role in both the overall magnitude and spatial distribution of estimates of the region's carbon fluxes. In particular, to reproduce the spatial pattern of CH4 emissions recorded by intensive in situ observations across the domain, in which very little CH4 is emitted north of 60° N, it was necessary to (a) account for CH4 emissions from unsaturated wetlands and (b) use spatially varying methane model parameters that reduced estimated CH4 emissions in the northern (permafrost) half of the domain (and/or account for lower CH4 emissions under inundated conditions). Our results suggest that previous estimates of the response of these wetlands to thawing permafrost may have overestimated future increases in methane emissions in the permafrost zone.
The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is a macroscale semi-distributed hydrologic model. VIC development began in the early 1990s and the model has since been used extensively for basin- to ...global-scale applications that include hydrologic dataset construction, trend analysis of hydrologic fluxes and states, data evaluation and assimilation, forecasting, coupled climate modeling, and climate change impact assessment. Ongoing operational applications of the VIC model include the University of Washington's drought monitoring and forecasting systems and NASA's Land Data Assimilation System. This paper documents the development of VIC version 5 (VIC-5), which includes a major reconfiguration of the legacy VIC source code to support a wider range of modern hydrologic modeling applications. The VIC source code has been moved to a public GitHub repository to encourage participation by the broader user and developer communities. The reconfiguration has separated the core physics of the model from the driver source code, whereby the latter is responsible for memory allocation, preprocessing and post-processing, and input–output (I–O). VIC-5 includes four drivers that use the same core physics modules, but which allow for different methods for accessing this core to enable different model applications. Finally, VIC-5 is distributed with robust test infrastructure, components of which routinely run during development using cloud-hosted continuous integration. The work described here provides an example to the model development community for extending the life of a legacy model that is being used extensively. The development and release of VIC-5 represents a significant step forward for the VIC user community in terms of support for existing and new model applications, reproducibility, and scientific robustness.
PDF
