Outcomes of liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are determined by cancer-related and non-related events. Treatments for hepatitis C virus infection have reduced non-cancer events ...among patients receiving liver transplants, so reducing HCC-related death might be an actionable end point. We performed a competing-risk analysis to evaluate factors associated with survival of patients with HCC and developed a prognostic model based on features of HCC patients before liver transplantation.
We performed multivariable competing-risk regression analysis to identify factors associated with HCC-specific death of patients who underwent liver transplantation. The training set comprised 1018 patients who underwent liver transplantation for HCC from January 2000 through December 2013 at 3 tertiary centers in Italy. The validation set comprised 341 consecutive patients who underwent liver transplantation for HCC during the same period at the Liver Cancer Institute in Shanghai, China. We collected pretransplantation data on etiology of liver disease, number and size of tumors, patient level of α-fetoprotein (AFP), model for end-stage liver disease score, tumor stage, numbers and types of treatment, response to treatments, tumor grade, microvascular invasion, dates, and causes of death. Death was defined as HCC-specific when related to HCC recurrence after transplantation, disseminated extra- and/or intrahepatic tumor relapse and worsened liver function in presence of tumor spread. The cumulative incidence of death was segregated for hepatitis C virus status.
In the competing-risk regression, the sum of tumor number and size and of log10 level of AFP were significantly associated with HCC-specific death (P < .001), returning an average c-statistic of 0.780 (95% confidence interval, 0.763−0.798). Five-year cumulative incidence of non−HCC-related death was 8.6% in HCV-negative patients and 18.1% in HCV-positive patients. For patients with HCC to have a 70% chance of HCC-specific survival 5 years after transplantation, their level of AFP should be <200 ng/mL and the sum of number and size of tumors (in centimeters) should not exceed 7; if the level of AFP was 200−400 ng/mL, the sum of the number and size of tumors should be ≤5; if their level of AFP was 400−1000 ng/mL, the sum of the number and size of tumors should be ≤4. In the validation set, the model identified patients who survived 5 years after liver transplantation with 0.721 accuracy (95% confidence interval, 0.648%−0.793%). Our model, based on patients’ level of AFP and HCC number and size, outperformed the Milan; University of California, San Francisco; Shanghai-Fudan; Up-to-7 criteria (P < .001); and AFP French model (P = .044) to predict which patients will survive for 5 years after liver transplantation.
We developed a model based on level of AFP, tumor size, and tumor number, to determine risk of death from HCC-related factors after liver transplantation. This model might be used to select end points and refine selection criteria for liver transplantation for patients with HCC. To predict 5-year survival and risk of HCC-related death using an online calculator, please see www.hcc-olt-metroticket.org/. ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT02898415.
Yttrium‐90 radioembolization (Y90RE) is a novel approach to radiation therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), never tested in phase 2 studies. Fifty‐two patients with intermediate (n.17) to ...advanced (n.35) HCC were prospectively recruited to assess, as the primary endpoint, efficacy of Y90RE on time‐to‐progression (TTP). Secondary endpoints were tumor response, safety, and overall survival (OS). All patients were Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) score 0‐1, Child‐Pugh class A‐B7. Y90RE treatments aimed at a lobar delivery of 120 Gy. Retrospective dosimetric correlations were conducted and related to response. Fifty‐eight treatments were performed on 52 patients. The median follow‐up was 36 months. The median TTP was 11 months with no significant difference between portal vein thrombosis (PVT) versus no PVT (7 versus 13 months). The median OS was 15 months (95% confidence interval CI, 12‐18 months) with a nonsignificant trend in favor of non‐PVT versus PVT patients (18 versus 13 months). Five complete responses occurred (9.6%), and the 2 year‐progression rate was 62%. Objective response was 40.4%, whereas the disease control rate (78.8%) significantly affected survival (responders versus nonresponders: 18.4% versus 9.1%; P = 0.009). Tumor response significantly correlated with absorbed dose in target lesions (r = 0.60, 95% CI, 0.41‐0.74, P < 0.001) and a threshold of 500 Gy predicted response (area under the curve, 0.78). Mortality at 30‐90 days was 0%‐3.8%. Various grades of reduction in liver function occurred within 6 months in 36.5% of patients, with no differences among stages. On multivariate analysis, tumor response was the sole variable affecting TTP (P < 0.001) and the second affecting survival (after Child‐Pugh class). Conclusion: Y90RE is an effective treatment in intermediate to advanced HCC, particularly in the case of PVT. Further prospective evaluations comparing Y90RE with conventional treatments are warranted. (HEPATOLOGY 2013)
Solid demonstrations of superior efficacy of drug-eluting beads transarterial chemoembolization with respect to conventional chemoembolization in hepatocellular carcinoma patients are lacking. The ...aim of the study was to compare these two techniques in two large cohorts of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma patients.
A single center series of 249 early/intermediate hepatocellular carcinoma patients who underwent "on demand" chemoembolization in the period 2007-2011 was analyzed. Overall survival, time to progression, tumor response rate, and safety were compared between 104 patients who underwent conventional chemoembolization and 145 who underwent drug-eluting beads chemoembolization. Time-to-event data were analyzed using the Cox univariate and multivariate regression.
The two cohorts resulted balanced for liver function and tumor stages. Objective response rate was 85.3% after conventional and 74.8% after drug-eluting beads chemoembolization (P = 0.039), and median time to progression was 17 (95% confidence interval: 14-21) versus 11 months (9-12), respectively (P < 0.001). Treatment regimen was the sole independent predictor of progression at multivariate analysis (hazard ratio = 2.01; 1.45-2.80; P < 0.001). Median survival was 39 (32-47) and 32 (24-39) months in the two groups, respectively (hazard ratio = 1.33; 0.94-1.87; P = 0.10), but conventional chemoembolization was significantly associated with a survival advantage in patients with bilobar neoplasia, portal hypertension and alpha fetoprotein above normal limits. No significant differences in severe adverse events were found.
In a large series of Western hepatocellular carcinoma patients, drug-eluting beads chemoembolization with 100-300 µm particles did not seem to improve survival in comparison with conventional chemoembolization, which in turn provided better tumor responses and time to progression.
AIM To investigate death for liver failure and for tumor recurrence as competing events after hepatectomy of hepatocellular carcinoma.METHODS Data from 864 cirrhotic Child-Pugh class A consecutive ...patients, submitted to curative hepatectomy(1997-2013) at two tertiary referral hospitals, were used for competing-risk analysis through the Fine and Gray method, aimed at assessing in which circumstances the oncological benefit from tumour removal is greater than the risk of dying from hepatic decompensation. To accomplish this task, the average risk of these two competing events, over 5 years of follow-up, was calculated through the integral of each cumulative incidence function, and represented the main comparison parameter. RESULTS Within a median follow-up of 5.6 years, death was attributable to tumor recurrence in 63.5%, and to liver failure in 21.2% of cases. In the first 16 mo, the risk of dying due to liver failure exceeded that of dying due to tumor relapse. Tumor stage only affects death from recurrence; whereas hepatitis C infection, Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, extent of hepatectomy and portal hypertension influence death from liver failure(P < 0.05 in all cases). The combination of these clinical and tumoral features identifies those patients in whom the risk of dying from liver failure did not exceed the tumour-related mortality, representing optimal surgical candidates. It also identifies those clinical circumstances where the oncological benefit would be borderline or even where the surgery would be harmful. CONCLUSION Having knowledge of these competing events can be used to weigh the risks and benefits of hepatic resection in each clinical circumstance, separating optimal from non-optimal surgical candidates.
AIM To develop a prognostic scoring system for overall survival(OS) of patients undergoing liver resection(LR) for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).METHODS Consecutive patients who underwent curative LR ...for HCC between 2000 and 2013 were identified. The series was randomly divided into a training and a validation set. A multivariable Cox model for OS was fitted to the training set. The beta coefficients derived from the Cox model were used to define a prognostic scoring system for OS. The survival stratification was then tested, and the prognostic scoring system was compared with the European Association for the Study of the Liver(EASL)/American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases(AASLD) surgical criteria by means of Harrell’s C statistics.RESULTS A total of 917 patients were considered. Five variables independently correlated with post-LR survival: Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, hepatitis C virus infection, number of nodules, largest diameter and vascular invasion. Three risk classes were identified, and OS for the three risk classes was significantly different both in the training(P < 0.0001) and the validation set(P = 0.0002). Overall, 69.4% of patients were in the low-risk class, whereas only 37.8% were eligible to surgery according to EASL/AASLD. Survival of patients in the low-risk class was not significantly different compared with surgical indication for EASL/AASLD guidelines(77.2 mo vs 82.5 mo respectively, P = 0.22). Comparison of Harrell’s C statistics revealed no significant difference in predictive power between the two systems(-0.00999, P = 0.667).CONCLUSION This study established a new prognostic scoring system that may stratify HCC patients suitable for surgery, expanding surgical eligibility with respect to EASL/AASLD criteria with no harm on survival.
Structured data in the form of labeled graphs (with variable order and topology) may be thought of as the outcomes of a random graph (RG) generating process characterized by an underlying ...probabilistic law. This paper formalizes the notions of generalized RG (GRG) and probability density function (pdf) for GRGs. Thence, a "universal" learning machine (combining the encoding module of a recursive neural network and a radial basis functions' network) is introduced for estimating the unknown pdf from an unsupervised sample of GRGs. A maximum likelihood training algorithm is presented and constrained so as to ensure that the resulting model satisfies the axioms of probability. Techniques for preventing the model from degenerate solutions are proposed, as well as variants of the algorithm suitable to the tasks of graphs classification and graphs clustering. The major properties of the machine are discussed. The approach is validated empirically through experimental investigations in the estimation of pdfs for synthetic and real-life GRGs, in the classification of images from the Caltech Benchmark data set and molecules from the Mutagenesis data set, and in clustering of images from the LabelMe data set.
Indications for liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma are evolving and so-called expanded criteria remain debated. Locoregional therapies are able to downstage hepatocellular carcinoma ...from beyond to within the Milan criteria. We aimed to investigate the efficacy of liver transplantation after successful hepatocellular carcinoma downstaging.
We did an open-label, multicentre, randomised, controlled trial designed in two phases, 2b and 3, at nine Italian tertiary care and transplantation centres. Patients aged 18–65 years with hepatocellular carcinoma beyond the Milan criteria, absence of macrovascular invasion or extrahepatic spread, 5-year estimated post-transplantation survival of at least 50%, and good liver function (Child-Pugh A-B7) were recruited and underwent tumour downstaging with locoregional, surgical, or systemic therapies according to multidisciplinary decision. After an observation period of 3 months, during which sorafenib was allowed, patients with partial or complete responses according to modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors were randomly assigned (1:1) by an interactive web-response system to liver transplantation or non-transplantation therapies (control group). A block randomisation (block size of 2), stratified by centre and compliance to sorafenib treatment, was applied. Liver transplantation was done with whole or split organs procured from brain-dead donors. The control group received sequences of locoregional and systemic treatment at the time of demonstrated tumour progression. The primary outcomes were 5-year tumour event-free survival for phase 2b and overall survival for phase 3. Analyses were by intention to treat. Organ allocation policy changed during the course of the study and restricted patient accrual to 4 years. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01387503.
Between March 1, 2011, and March 31, 2015, 74 patients were enrolled. Median duration of downstaging was 6 months (IQR 4–11). 29 patients dropped out before randomisation and 45 were randomly assigned: 23 to the transplantation group versus 22 to the control group. At data cutoff on July 31, 2019, median follow-up was 71 months (IQR 60–85). 5-year tumour event-free survival was 76·8% (95% CI 60·8–96·9) in the transplantation group versus 18·3% (7·1–47·0) in the control group (hazard ratio HR 0·20, 95% CI 0·07–0·57; p=0·003). 5-year overall survival was 77·5% (95% CI 61·9–97·1) in the transplantation group versus 31·2% (16·6–58·5) in the control group (HR 0·32, 95% CI 0·11–0·92; p=0·035). The most common registered grade 3–4 serious adverse events were hepatitis C virus recurrence (three 13% of 23 patients) and acute transplant rejection (two 9%) in the transplantation group, and post-embolisation syndrome (two 9% of 22 patients) in the control group. Treatment-related deaths occurred in four patients: two (8%) of 23 patients in the transplantation group (myocardial infarction and multi-organ failure) versus two (9%) of 22 patients in the control group (liver decompensation).
Although results must be interpreted with caution owing to the early closing of the trial, after effective and sustained downstaging of eligible hepatocellular carcinomas beyond the Milan criteria, liver transplantation improved tumour event-free survival and overall survival compared with non-transplantation therapies Post-downstaging tumour response could contribute to the expansion of hepatocellular carcinoma transplantation criteria.
Italian Ministry of Health.
PDF
