Background. Of the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) genotypes previously described in South Africa during 1997-2002, only GA2 and GA5 persisted until 2006, with BA having replaced all previous RSV-B ...genotypes. This poses the question whether RSV-A is more stable than RSV-B and whether positive selection drives evolution of genotypes. Methods. RSV-positive specimens were randomly selected during 2009-2012, subtyped, sequenced, and compared to RSV recovered from specimens obtained during 1997-2001 and 2006-2009. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis was performed on the G-protein. Results. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that RSV-A genotype GA2 dissolved to form SAA2 (unique to South Africa), NA1 and NA2 (identified in Japan), and ON1 (identified in Canada and having a 72-bp insertion) and that GA5 drifted from 1999-2012 to form 3 subgenotypes (GA5 I-III). RSV-B genotypes all had the 60-bp insertion typical of A genotypes but clustered into subgenotypes BA8-10. Positive selection was identified in the G-protein of both subtypes, but RSV-A's rate of evolution was slower than that of RSV-B, with the most recent common ancestors dating from 1945 and 1951, respectively. Seven new positively selected sites were identified in South African strains, 2 for RSV-A and 5 for RSV-B. Conclusion. Positive selection drove both RSV-A and -B genotypes to evolve, resulting in replacement of all genotypes over the 15-year study period in South Africa.
Abstract
Background
In this study, we compared admission incidence risk and the risk of mortality in the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave to previous waves.
Methods
Data from South Africa's SARS-CoV-2 case ...linelist, national COVID-19 hospital surveillance system, and Electronic Vaccine Data System were linked and analyzed. Wave periods were defined when the country passed a weekly incidence of 30 cases/100 000 population. In-hospital case fatality ratios (CFRs) during the Delta, Omicron BA.1/BA.2, and Omicron BA.4/BA.5 waves were compared using post-imputation random effect multivariable logistic regression models.
Results
The CFR was 25.9% (N = 37 538 of 144 778), 10.9% (N = 6123 of 56 384), and 8.2% (N = 1212 of 14 879) in the Delta, Omicron BA.1/BA.2, and Omicron BA.4/BA.5 waves, respectively. After adjusting for age, sex, race, comorbidities, health sector, and province, compared with the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave, patients had higher risk of mortality in the Omicron BA.1/BA.2 wave (adjusted odds ratio aOR, 1.3; 95% confidence interval CI: 1.2–1.4) and Delta wave (aOR, 3.0; 95% CI: 2.8–3.2). Being partially vaccinated (aOR, 0.9; 95% CI: .9–.9), fully vaccinated (aOR, 0.6; 95% CI: .6–.7), and boosted (aOR, 0.4; 95% CI: .4–.5) and having prior laboratory-confirmed infection (aOR, 0.4; 95% CI: .3–.4) were associated with reduced risks of mortality.
Conclusions
Overall, admission incidence risk and in-hospital mortality, which had increased progressively in South Africa's first 3 waves, decreased in the fourth Omicron BA.1/BA.2 wave and declined even further in the fifth Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave. Mortality risk was lower in those with natural infection and vaccination, declining further as the number of vaccine doses increased.
Admission incidence risk and in-hospital mortality decreased in the Omicron BA.1/BA.2 wave, reducing even further in the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave. Mortality risk was lower in those with natural infection and vaccination, declining further as the number of vaccine doses increased.
Vaccines and monoclonal antibodies to protect the very young infant against the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated illness are effective for limited time periods. We aimed to estimate ...age-specific burden to guide implementation strategies and cost-effectiveness analyses.
We combined case-based surveillance and ecological data to generate a national estimate of the burden of RSV-associated acute respiratory illness (ARI) and severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) in South African children aged < 5 years (2011-2016), including adjustment for attributable fraction. We estimated the RSV burden by month of life in the < 1-year age group, by 3-month intervals until 2 years, and then 12 monthly intervals to < 5 years for medically and non-medically attended illness.
We estimated a mean annual total (medically and non-medically attended) of 264,112 (95% confidence interval (CI) 134,357-437,187) cases of RSV-associated ARI and 96,220 (95% CI 66,470-132,844) cases of RSV-associated SARI (4.7% and 1.7% of the population aged < 5 years, respectively). RSV-associated ARI incidence was highest in 2-month-old infants (18,361/100,000 population, 95% CI 9336-28,466). The highest incidence of RSV-associated SARI was in the < 1-month age group 14,674/100,000 (95% CI 11,175-19,645). RSV-associated deaths were highest in the first and second month of life (110.8 (95% CI 74.8-144.5) and 111.3 (86.0-135.8), respectively).
Due to the high burden of RSV-associated illness, specifically SARI cases in young infants, maternal vaccination and monoclonal antibody products delivered at birth could prevent significant RSV-associated disease burden.
Severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) is an important cause of mortality in young children, especially in children living with HIV infection. Disparities in SARI death in children aged <5 years ...exist in urban and rural areas.
To compare the factors associated with in-hospital death among children aged <5 years hospitalized with SARI in an urban vs. a rural setting in South Africa from 2009-2013.
Data were collected from hospitalized children with SARI in one urban and two rural sentinel surveillance hospitals. Nasopharyngeal aspirates were tested for ten respiratory viruses and blood for pneumococcal DNA using polymerase chain reaction. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify patient and clinical characteristics associated with in-hospital death.
From 2009 through 2013, 5,297 children aged <5 years with SARI-associated hospital admission were enrolled; 3,811 (72%) in the urban and 1,486 (28%) in the rural hospitals. In-hospital case-fatality proportion (CFP) was higher in the rural hospitals (6.9%) than the urban hospital (1.3%, p<0.001), and among HIV-infected than the HIV-uninfected children (9.6% vs. 1.6%, p<0.001). In the urban hospital, HIV infection (odds ratio (OR):11.4, 95% confidence interval (CI):5.4-24.1) and presence of any other underlying illness (OR: 3.0, 95% CI: 1.0-9.2) were the only factors independently associated with death. In the rural hospitals, HIV infection (OR: 4.1, 95% CI: 2.3-7.1) and age <1 year (OR: 3.7, 95% CI: 1.9-7.2) were independently associated with death, whereas duration of hospitalization ≥5 days (OR: 0.5, 95% CI: 0.3-0.8) and any respiratory virus detection (OR: 0.4, 95% CI: 0.3-0.8) were negatively associated with death.
We found that the case-fatality proportion was substantially higher among children admitted to rural hospitals and HIV infected children with SARI in South Africa. While efforts to prevent and treat HIV infections in children may reduce SARI deaths, further efforts to address health care inequality in rural populations are needed.
Data on the national-level impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction on mortality are lacking from Africa. PCV was introduced in South Africa in 2009. We estimated the impact of PCV ...introduction on all-cause pneumonia mortality in South Africa, while controlling for changes in mortality due to other interventions.
We used national death registration data in South Africa from 1999 to 2016 to assess the impact of PCV introduction on all-cause pneumonia mortality in all ages, with the exclusion of infants aged <1 month. We created a composite (synthetic) control using Bayesian variable selection of nondiarrheal, nonpneumonia, and nonpneumococcal deaths to estimate the number of expected all-cause pneumonia deaths in the absence of PCV introduction post 2009. We compared all-cause pneumonia deaths from the death registry to the expected deaths in 2012 to 2016. We also estimated the number of prevented deaths during 2009 to 2016. Of the 9,324,638 deaths reported in South Africa from 1999 to 2016, 12·6% were pneumonia-related. Compared to number of deaths expected, we estimated a 33% (95% credible interval (CrI) 26% to 43%), 23% (95%CrI 17% to 29%), 25% (95%CrI 19% to 32%), and 23% (95%CrI 11% to 32%) reduction in pneumonia mortality in children aged 1 to 11 months, 1 to 4 years, 5 to 7 years, and 8 to 18 years in 2012 to 2016, respectively. In total, an estimated 18,422 (95%CrI 12,388 to 26,978) pneumonia-related deaths were prevented from 2009 to 2016 in children aged <19 years. No declines were estimated observed among adults following PCV introduction. This study was mainly limited by coding errors in original data that could have led to a lower impact estimate, and unmeasured factors could also have confounded estimates.
This study found that the introduction of PCV was associated with substantial reduction in all-cause pneumonia deaths in children aged 1 month to <19 years. The model predicted an effect of PCV in age groups who were eligible for vaccination (1 months to 4 years), and an indirect effect in those too old (8 to 18 years) to be vaccinated. These findings support sustaining pneumococcal vaccination to reduce pneumonia-related mortality in children.
South Africa was among the first countries to detect the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant. However, the size of its Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants (BA.1/2) wave remains poorly understood. We analyzed ...sequential serum samples collected through a prospective cohort study before, during, and after the Omicron BA.1/2 wave to infer infection rates and monitor changes in the immune histories of participants over time. We found that the Omicron BA.1/2 wave infected more than half of the cohort population, with reinfections and vaccine breakthroughs accounting for > 60% of all infections in both rural and urban sites. After the Omicron BA.1/2 wave, we found few (< 6%) remained naïve to SARS-CoV-2 and the population immunologic landscape is fragmented with diverse infection/immunization histories. Prior infection with the ancestral strain, Beta, and Delta variants provided 13%, 34%, and 51% protection against Omicron BA.1/2 infection, respectively. Hybrid immunity and repeated prior infections reduced the risks of Omicron BA.1/2 infection by 60% and 85% respectively. Our study sheds light on a rapidly shifting landscape of population immunity in the Omicron era and provides context for anticipating the long-term circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in populations no longer naïve to the virus.
The aim of this study was to quantify transmission trends in South Africa during the first four waves of the COVID-19 pandemic using estimates of the time-varying reproduction number (R) and to ...compare the robustness of R estimates based on three different data sources, and using data from public and private sector service providers. R was estimated from March 2020 through April 2022, nationally and by province, based on time series of rt-PCR-confirmed cases, hospitalisations, and hospital-associated deaths, using a method that models daily incidence as a weighted sum of past incidence, as implemented in the R package EpiEstim. R was also estimated separately using public and private sector data. Nationally, the maximum case-based R following the introduction of lockdown measures was 1.55 (CI: 1.43-1.66), 1.56 (CI: 1.47-1.64), 1.46 (CI: 1.38-1.53) and 3.33 (CI: 2.84-3.97) during the first (Wuhan-Hu), second (Beta), third (Delta), and fourth (Omicron) waves, respectively. Estimates based on the three data sources (cases, hospitalisations, deaths) were generally similar during the first three waves, but higher during the fourth wave for case-based estimates. Public and private sector R estimates were generally similar except during the initial lockdowns and in case-based estimates during the fourth wave. Agreement between R estimates using different data sources during the first three waves suggests that data from any of these sources could be used in the early stages of a future pandemic. The high R estimates for Omicron relative to earlier waves are interesting given a high level of exposure pre-Omicron. The agreement between public and private sector R estimates highlights that clients of the public and private sectors did not experience two separate epidemics, except perhaps to a limited extent during the strictest lockdowns in the first wave.
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is an important cause of pneumonia mortality in young children. However, clinical data for fatal RSV infection are scarce. We aimed to identify clinical ...and socioeconomic characteristics of children aged younger than 5 years with RSV-related mortality using individual patient data.
In this retrospective case series, we developed an online questionnaire to obtain individual patient data for clinical and socioeconomic characteristics of children aged younger than 5 years who died with community-acquired RSV infection between Jan 1, 1995, and Oct 31, 2015, through leading research groups for child pneumonia identified through a comprehensive literature search and existing research networks. For the literature search, we searched PubMed for articles published up to Feb 3, 2015, using the key terms “RSV”, “respiratory syncytial virus”, or “respiratory syncytial viral” combined with “mortality”, “fatality”, “death”, “died”, “deaths”, or “CFR” for articles published in English. We invited researchers and clinicians identified to participate between Nov 1, 2014, and Oct 31, 2015. We calculated descriptive statistics for all variables.
We studied 358 children with RSV-related in-hospital death from 23 countries across the world, with data contributed from 31 research groups. 117 (33%) children were from low-income or lower middle-income countries, 77 (22%) were from upper middle-income countries, and 164 (46%) were from high-income countries. 190 (53%) were male. Data for comorbidities were missing for some children in low-income and middle-income countries. Available data showed that comorbidities were present in at least 33 (28%) children from low-income or lower middle-income countries, 36 (47%) from upper middle-income countries, and 114 (70%) from high-income countries. Median age for RSV-related deaths was 5·0 months (IQR 2·3–11·0) in low-income or lower middle-income countries, 4·0 months (2·0–10·0) in upper middle-income countries, and 7·0 months (3·6–16·8) in high-income countries.
This study is the first large case series of children who died with community-acquired RSV infection. A substantial proportion of children with RSV-related death had comorbidities. Our results show that perinatal immunisation strategies for children aged younger than 6 months could have a substantial impact on RSV-related child mortality in low-income and middle-income countries.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes a substantial burden of acute lower respiratory infection in children under 5 years, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Maternal ...vaccine (MV) and next-generation monoclonal antibody (mAb) candidates have been shown to reduce RSV disease in infants in phase 3 clinical trials. The cost-effectiveness of these biologics has been estimated using disease burden data from global meta-analyses, but these are sensitive to the detailed age breakdown of paediatric RSV disease, for which there have previously been limited data.
We use original hospital-based incidence data from South Africa (ZAF) and Kenya (KEN) collected between 2010 and 2018 of RSV-associated acute respiratory infection (ARI), influenza-like illness (ILI), and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) as well as deaths with monthly age-stratification, supplemented with data on healthcare-seeking behaviour and costs to the healthcare system and households. We estimated the incremental cost per DALY averted (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio or ICER) of public health interventions by MV or mAb for a plausible range of prices (5-50 USD for MV, 10-125 USD for mAb), using an adjusted version of a previously published health economic model of RSV immunisation.
Our data show higher disease incidence for infants younger than 6 months of age in the case of Kenya and South Africa than suggested by earlier projections from community incidence-based meta-analyses of LMIC data. Since MV and mAb provide protection for these youngest age groups, this leads to a substantially larger reduction of disease burden and, therefore, more favourable cost-effectiveness of both interventions in both countries. Using the latest efficacy data and inferred coverage levels based on antenatal care (ANC-3) coverage (KEN: 61.7%, ZAF: 75.2%), our median estimate of the reduction in RSV-associated deaths in children under 5 years in Kenya is 10.5% (95% CI: 7.9, 13.3) for MV and 13.5% (10.7, 16.4) for mAb, while in South Africa, it is 27.4% (21.6, 32.3) and 37.9% (32.3, 43.0), respectively. Starting from a dose price of 5 USD, in Kenya, net cost (for the healthcare system) per (undiscounted) DALY averted for MV is 179 (126, 267) USD, rising to 1512 (1166, 2070) USD at 30 USD per dose; for mAb, it is 684 (543, 895) USD at 20 USD per dose and 1496 (1203, 1934) USD at 40 USD per dose. In South Africa, a MV at 5 USD per dose would be net cost-saving for the healthcare system and net cost per DALY averted is still below the ZAF's GDP per capita at 40 USD dose price (median: 2350, 95% CI: 1720, 3346). For mAb in ZAF, net cost per DALY averted is 247 (46, 510) USD at 20 USD per dose, rising to 2028 (1565, 2638) USD at 50 USD per dose and to 6481 (5364, 7959) USD at 125 USD per dose.
Incorporation of new data indicating the disease burden is highly concentrated in the first 6 months of life in two African settings suggests that interventions against RSV disease may be more cost-effective than previously estimated.
•Severe hospitalization or risk of death was similar for BA.4/BA.5 and BA.1 infections.•Previous infection and vaccination strongly protected against severe COVID-19.•Growing population immunity ...against COVID-19 resulted in reduced severe disease.•Booster vaccinations are important to reduce the public health impact of COVID-19.
We aimed to compare the clinical severity of Omicron BA.4/BA.5 infection with BA.1 and earlier variant infections among laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in the Western Cape, South Africa, using timing of infection to infer the lineage/variant causing infection.
We included public sector patients aged ≥20 years with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 between May 01-May 21, 2022 (BA.4/BA.5 wave) and equivalent previous wave periods. We compared the risk between waves of (i) death and (ii) severe hospitalization/death (all within 21 days of diagnosis) using Cox regression adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, admission pressure, vaccination, and previous infection.
Among 3793 patients from the BA.4/BA.5 wave and 190,836 patients from previous waves, the risk of severe hospitalization/death was similar in the BA.4/BA.5 and BA.1 waves (adjusted hazard ratio aHR 1.12; 95% confidence interval CI 0.93; 1.34). Both Omicron waves had a lower risk of severe outcomes than previous waves. Previous infection (aHR 0.29, 95% CI 0.24; 0.36) and vaccination (aHR 0.17; 95% CI 0.07; 0.40 for at least three doses vs no vaccine) were protective.
Disease severity was similar among diagnosed COVID-19 cases in the BA.4/BA.5 and BA.1 periods in the context of growing immunity against SARS-CoV-2 due to previous infection and vaccination, both of which were strongly protective.
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