I investigate the dynamics of core inflation in Italy, with a special focus on the decline that started in 2012 and the ensuing low-inflation period. Novel composite indicators of labour and ...financial market conditions are constructed and employed in a factor-augmented Phillips curve framework. Several findings follow. The Phillips curve, apparently dead when based on the unemployment gap or the output gap, is instead correctly underpinned when slack is extracted from the labour market composite indicator: the underlying large set of variables is beneficial for conditionally forecasting core inflation. Second, financial market composite indicators help to better characterize core inflation dynamics in times of unconventional monetary policy and when considering their interactions with economic slack. Third, a steepening of the Phillips curve is evident after 2008, before a stabilization is observed in 2016. These results can inform monetary authorities in their quest for sustained adjustment in the path of inflation.
•I investigate weak core inflation dynamics using a factor-augmented Phillips curve.•I build novel composite indicators of Italy's labour and financial markets.•Italy's Phillips curve is alive, even in low-inflation times.•Extracting slack from a large set of labour variables leads to accurate core inflation forecasts.•Financial variables improve core inflation forecasts when interacted with slack.
We provide new estimates of the impact of shocks to bank capital requirements on lending supply and macroeconomic activity based on a Bayesian VAR estimated on Italian data and identified combining ...sign and narrative restrictions. Narrative restrictions are based on the EBA 2011 Stress Test (ST) and the ECB 2014 Comprehensive Assessment (CA) and are corroborated by evidence from the Euro Area Bank Lending Survey. IRFs show that shocks to required capital persistently reduce R.W.A. and loan supply and lead to a temporary decline in GDP. Based on historical decomposition, the ST and the CA increased banks’ Tier 1 ratio by 40 bps and determined a contraction in loan supply and GDP after two years of up to 1.5% and 0.5%, respectively. Results are robust to using alternative narrative restrictions and hold also when controlling for market pressure during the sovereign debt crisis and for global shocks to bank capitalization.
•New estimates of the impact of bank capital requirement shocks on lending supply and economic activity.•Bayesian VAR models identified with narrative sign restrictions.•Narrative restrictions based on the EBA 2011 Stress Test and the ECB 2014 Comprehensive Assessment for Italian banks.•The shocks increased the Tier 1 ratio by 40 bps and lowered loan supply and GDP of up to 1.5% and 0.7%, respectively.•Results are robust to controlling for market pressure and for global developments in bank capital.
We evaluate the role of US monetary policy in shaping inflation and economic activity by means of a medium-scale Bayesian VAR model, where the ZLB and the unconventional measures are addressed by ...using a shadow interest rate. The historical decomposition and a conditional forecast scenario show that the FED’s stance is in line with GDP and inflation dynamics. Moreover, core inflation will likely lie below its target in 2017.
•We ask whether the FED has riskily delayed the exit from its large monetary easing.•We focus on the effects of monetary policy on US PCE core inflation.•Monetary policy shocks are not pushing inflation much beyond its baseline.•Scenario analysis shows that the FED’s stance is in line with macroeconomic dynamics.•PCE core inflation will likely lie below the FED’s target in 2017.
This paper provides an overview of the recent progress in research and development dealing with polymers derived from plant oils. It highlights the widening interest in novel approaches to the ...synthesis, characterization, and properties of these materials from renewable resources and emphasizes their growing impact on sustainable macromolecular science and technology. The monomers used include unmodified triglycerides, their fatty acids or the corresponding esters, and chemically modified triglycerides and fatty acid esters. Comonomers include styrene, divinylbenzene, acrylics, furan derivatives, epoxides, etc. The synthetic pathways adopted for the preparation of these materials are very varied, going from traditional free radical and cationic polymerizations to polycondensation reactions, as well as metatheses and Diels-Alder syntheses. In addition to this general appraisal, the specific topic of the use of tung oil as a source of original polymers, copolymers, and (nano)composites is discussed in greater detail in terms of mechanisms, structures, properties, and possible applications.
Steam treatment has been reported as an alternative to improve the cup quality of coffee; in this research, it was applied to C. canephora defective coffee. The aim of the study was to evaluate the ...sensory perception of steamed defective C. canephora coffee (SDC) in roasted coffee blends, by Flash Profile and acceptance tests. SDC was produced by steam treatment (5 bar, 16 min) and a standardized roasting process was applied to all coffees. Four samples were prepared as follows: AB (100% C. arabica), CB (100% C. canephora), ASDB and CSDB, both blends with 50% of SDC and C. arabica or C. canephora, respectively. Coffee brews were prepared through percolation (50 g coffee/500 mL water at 92 °C). Coffee species were more relevant in sensory discrimination of the brews than SDC addition. AB and ASDB were characterized as having brown color, fruity/herbal/green bean aroma and coffee/residual coffee flavor. CB and CSDB were described as viscous, with foam, black color, bitter taste, and aroma/taste related to the roasting process. With SDC addition, typical sensory characteristics of each species were maintained, but the intensity of the attributes was reduced. Coffee brews blends with 50% SDC C. canephora are well accepted.
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•Steamed C. canephora PVA was used in blends with pure arabica and robusta coffees.•Brews are discriminated best based on species than on the presence of steamed coffee.•The same attributes are used to describe blends with steamed coffee and pure coffees.•Coffee brews from blends with 50% steamed C. canephora PVA beans are well accepted.
Between 15 and 20% of Brazilian coffee production corresponds to defective beans (PVA), which decreases the quality of the coffee brew. Steam treatment has been reported as an alternative to improve ...the volatile profile and cup quality of coffee. The aim of this study was to propose a steam treatment of defective Coffea canephora beans to improve the volatile profile of the roasted coffee. The sensory impacts of adding steamed coffee (SC) in Coffea arabica blends were evaluated. The steam treatments studied modified the volatile profile of roasted SCs, increasing the contents of acetoin, benzyl alcohol, maltol, 2,6-dimethylpyrazine, 2-furfurylthiol, and 5-methylfurfural and decreasing the contents of 4-ethylguaiacol, isovaleric acid, methional, 2,3-diethyl-5-methylpyrazine, and 3-methoxy-3-methylpyrazine. Among the evaluated parameters, the best condition to maximized the content of the volatiles with a potential positive impact and minimize those with a potential negative impact was 5bar/16min (SC 5). The thresholds of consumer rejection and of detection indicate that up to 30% SC 5 can be added to a high cup quality Coffea arabica coffee without perception or rejection of the coffee brew. A blend of 30% of SC 5 and 70% of Coffea arabica was well accepted.
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•Steam treatment of defective beans affects the volatile profile of roasted coffee.•Steam treatment improves the sensory quality of PVA coffee brew.•Up to 30% of steamed PVA can be used in coffee blend without rejection of the brew.
We investigate the possible existence of asymmetries among Euro Area countries reactions to the European Central Bank monetary policy. Our analysis is based on a Structural Dynamic Factor model ...estimated on a large panel of Euro Area quarterly variables. Although the introduction of the euro has changed the monetary transmission mechanism in the individual countries towards a more homogeneous response, we find that differences still remain between North and South Europe in terms of prices and unemployment. These results are the consequence of country‐specific structures, rather than of European Central Bank policies.
We employ a recent time‐varying cointegration test to revisit the usefulness of long‐run money demand equations for the ECB, addressing the issue of their instability by means of a model evaluation ...exercise. Building on the results, we make a twofold contribution. First, we propose a novel stable money demand equation relying on two crucial factors: a speculative motive, represented by domestic and foreign price‐earnings ratios, and a precautionary motive, measured by changes in unemployment. Second, we use the model to derive relevant policy implications for the ECB, since excess liquidity looks more useful for forecasting stock market busts than future inflation. Overall, this evidence points to (i) a possible evolution of the monetary pillar in the direction of pursuing financial stability and (ii) the exclusion of a sudden liquidity–driven inflationary burst after the exit from the prolonged period of unconventional monetary measures.
Choroid plexus epithelial cells (CPEpiCs) determine the composition of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and constitute the blood-CSF barrier (BCSFB), functions that are altered in neurodegenerative ...diseases. In Parkinson's disease (PD) the pathological environment oxidizes and deamidates the ceruloplasmin, a CSF-resident ferroxidase, which undergoes a gain of RGD-recognizing integrin binding property, that may result in signal transduction. We investigated the effects that oxidized/deamidated ceruloplasmin (Cp-ox/de) may exert on CPEpiCs functions. Through RGD-recognizing integrins binding, Cp-ox/de mediates CPEpiCs adhesion and intracellular signaling, resulting in cell proliferation inhibition and alteration of the secretome profile in terms of proteins related to cell-extracellular matrix interaction. Oxidative conditions, comparable to those found in the CSF of PD patients, induced CPEpiCs barrier leakage, allowing Cp-ox/de to cross it, transducing integrins-mediated signal that further worsens BCSFB integrity. This mechanism might contribute to PD pathological processes altering CSF composition and aggravating the already compromised BCSFB function.
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•Oxidative stress in Parkinson's disease alters choroid plexus barrier permeability.•Ceruloplasmin is oxidized/deamidated in Parkinson's disease cerebrospinal fluid.•Modified ceruloplasmin binds to integrin and transduces an intracellular signal.•Ceruloplasmin integrin- binding alters choroid plexus cells secretome and proliferation.•Integrin-binding by modified ceruloplasmin worsens choroid plexus barrier integrity.
We used random sampling to estimate the prevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection in Verona, Italy. Of 1,515 participants, 2.6% tested positive by serologic assay and ...0.7% by reverse transcription PCR. We used latent class analysis to estimate a 3.0% probability of infection and 2.0% death rate.
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