To compare the performance of various liver disease scoring systems in predicting early mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation.
In this single-institution ...retrospective study, eight scoring systems were used to grade liver disease in 211 patients (male-to-female ratio = 131:80; mean age, 54 y) before TIPS creation from 1999-2011. Scoring systems included bilirubin level, Child-Pugh (CP) score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease sodium (MELD-Na) score, Emory score, prognostic index (PI), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) 2 score, and Bonn TIPS early mortality (BOTEM) score. Medical record review was used to identify 30-day and 90-day clinical outcomes. The relationship of scoring parameters with mortality outcomes was assessed with multivariate analysis, and the relative ability of systems to predict mortality after TIPS creation was evaluated by comparing area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves.
TIPS were successfully created for variceal hemorrhage (n = 121), ascites (n = 72), hepatic hydrothorax (n = 15), and portal vein thrombosis (n = 3). All scoring systems had a significant association with 30-day and 90-day mortality (P<.050 in each case) on multivariate analysis. Based on 30-day and 90-day AUROC, MELD (0.878, 0.816) and MELD-Na (0.863, 0.823) scores had the best capability to predict early mortality compared with bilirubin (0.786, 0.749), CP (0.822, 0.771), Emory (0.786, 0.681), PI (0.854, 0.760), APACHE 2 (0.836, 0.735), and BOTEM (0.798, 0.698), with statistical superiority over bilirubin, Emory, and BOTEM scores.
Several liver disease scoring systems have prognostic value for early mortality after TIPS creation. MELD and MELD-Na scores most effectively predict survival after TIPS creation.
To identify prognostic factors for early mortality among patients with intermediate-risk Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt ...(TIPS) creation.
In this single-institution retrospective study, 47 patients (31 men; mean age, 54 y) with intermediate MELD scores (ie, 18-25) underwent TIPS creation between 1999 and 2012. Medical records were reviewed to identify demographic (age, sex), liver disease (Child-Pugh, MELD), and procedure data (indication, urgency, stent type, portosystemic pressure gradient reduction, complications), and the influence of these parameters on 90-day mortality was assessed by multivariate binary logistic regression analysis.
TIPSs were successfully created for variceal hemorrhage (n = 24), ascites (n = 17), hydrothorax (n = 5), and portal vein thrombosis (n = 1). Hemodynamic success rate was 94% (44 of 47), and mean portosystemic pressure gradient reduction was 13 mm Hg. The 90-day mortality rate was 36% (17 of 47). Patient age (P = .026) was significantly associated with 90-day mortality. Mean ages of living versus dead patients were 51 and 60 years, and mortality rates in patients aged 54 years or younger versus 55 years or older were 21% (five of 24) and 52% (12 of 23), respectively. There was no difference in MELD scores between these age groups (20.6 vs 21.0; P = .600), and MELD score was not a predictive factor on regression analysis.
Age is a prognostic factor for early mortality in TIPS recipients with intermediate MELD scores. Mortality rates are higher in patients at least 55 years of age, but MELD score does not predict survival in this subset. Age should be contemplated when selecting patients at intermediate risk for TIPS creation.
