Gender inequalities are reflected in differential vulnerability, and exposure to the hazards posed by climate change and addressing them is key to increase the adaptive capacities of societies. We ...provide trajectories of the Gender Inequality Index (GII) alongside the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a scenario framework widely used in climate science. Here we find that rapid improvements in gender inequality are possible under a sustainable development scenario already in the near-term. The share of girls growing up in countries with the highest gender inequality could be reduced to about 24% in 2030 compared to about 70% today. Largely overcoming gender inequality as assessed in the GII would be within reach by mid-century. Under less optimistic scenarios, gender inequality may persist throughout the 21st century. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating gender in scenarios assessing future climate impacts and underscore the relevance of addressing gender inequalities in policies aiming to foster climate resilient development.
Climate, conflict and forced migration Abel, Guy J.; Brottrager, Michael; Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus ...
Global environmental change,
January 2019, 2019-01-00, 20190101, Letnik:
54
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
•Growing public interest on climate driver of conflict and migration but evidence is scarce.•Climate change is responsible for increase in asylum seeking through conflict.•Reduced rainfall increases ...conflict which in turn drive outflow of asylum seekers.•Established causal relationship between climate, conflict and asylum seeking only in the recent period.
Despite the lack of robust empirical evidence, a growing number of media reports attempt to link climate change to the ongoing violent conflicts in Syria and other parts of the world, as well as to the migration crisis in Europe. Exploiting bilateral data on asylum seeking applications for 157 countries over the period 2006–2015, we assess the determinants of refugee flows using a gravity model which accounts for endogenous selection in order to examine the causal link between climate, conflict and forced migration. Our results indicate that climatic conditions, by affecting drought severity and the likelihood of armed conflict, played a significant role as an explanatory factor for asylum seeking in the period 2011–2015. The effect of climate on conflict occurrence is particularly relevant for countries in Western Asia in the period 2010–2012 during when many countries were undergoing political transformation. This finding suggests that the impact of climate on conflict and asylum seeking flows is limited to specific time period and contexts.
•We present a model to construct long-term income projections for climate change research.•The modelling framework is based on the relationship between educational attainment, age structure dynamics ...and economic growth.•We use population projections by age, sex and educational attainment to obtain income per capita paths to the year 2100 for 144 countries.
The quantitative assessment of the global effects of climate change requires the construction of income projections spanning large time horizons. Exploiting the robust link between educational attainment, age structure dynamics and economic growth, we use population projections by age, sex and educational attainment to obtain income per capita paths to the year 2100 for 144 countries. Such a framework offers a powerful, consistent methodology which can be used to study the future environmental challenges and to address potential policy reactions.
We assess empirically the role that uncertainty plays as a determinant of business cycle synchronization dynamics in the European Monetary Union. Using a time-varying measure of business cycle ...synchronization and Bayesian model averaging methods, we find that increase in uncertainty tends to robustly predict desynchronization, in particular for countries whose business cycles are not in line with those of the rest of the monetary union.
We assess the role that nontradable goods play as a determinant of fiscal spending multipliers, making use of a two-sector model. While fiscal multipliers increase with the share of nontradable ...goods, an inverted U-shaped relationship exists between multiplier size and the import share. Employing an interacted panel VAR model for EU countries, we estimate the effect of the share of nontradable goods on fiscal spending multipliers. Our empirical results provide strong evidence for the predictions of the theoretical model. They imply that the drag of fiscal consolidations is on average smaller in countries with a low share of nontradable goods.
•We examine the role of nontradable goods for fiscal spending multipliers.•As of our theoretical model, fiscal multipliers increase with the share of nontradables.•This is empirically confirmed by an interacted panel VAR model estimated for EU countries.•The drag of fiscal consolidations is smaller in countries with a low share of nontradables.•This explains the heterogeneous output response to fiscal consolidation during the European debt crisis.
Our modelling strategy assesses model uncertainty explicitly and aims to identify the main drivers of differences in digital variables at the household and individual levels in 99 European NUTS-2 ...regions. Several economic and demographic covariates are found to be robust predictors of these variables. Our benchmark projection results indicate that historical convergence trends in variables related to the access to digital technologies (broadband and internet use) are expected to continue, but that in the absence of particular policy impulses, the digital divide existing in Europe for international e-commerce and e-government interactions is not expected to disappear in the coming years.
We present a comprehensive modelling framework aimed at quantifying the response of agricultural commodity prices to changes in their potential determinants. The problem of model uncertainty is ...assessed explicitly by concentrating on specification selection based on the quality of short‐term out‐of‐sample forecasts (1 to 12 months ahead) for the price of wheat, soybeans and corn. Univariate and multivariate autoregressive models (autoregressive AR, vector autoregressive VAR and vector error correction VEC specifications, estimated using frequentist and Bayesian methods), specifications with heteroskedastic errors (AR conditional heteroskedastic ARCH and generalized AR conditional heteroskedastic GARCH models) and combinations of these are entertained, including information about market fundamentals, macroeconomic and financial developments, and climatic variables. In addition, we assess potential non‐linearities in the commodity price dynamics along the business cycle. Our results indicate that variables measuring market fundamentals and macroeconomic developments (and, to a lesser extent, financial developments) contain systematic predictive information for out‐of‐sample forecasting of commodity prices and that agricultural commodity prices react robustly to shocks in international competitiveness, as measured by changes in the real exchange rate.
We provide a comprehensive assessment of the predictive power of combinations of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models for GDP growth, inflation, and the interest rate in the euro ...area. We employ a battery of static and dynamic pooling weights based on Bayesian model averaging principles, prediction pools, and dynamic factor representations, and entertain six different DSGE specifications and five prediction weighting schemes. Our results indicate that exploiting mixtures of DSGE models produces competitive forecasts compared to individual specifications for both point and density forecasts over the last three decades. Although these combinations do not tend to systematically achieve superior forecast performance, we find improvements for particular periods of time and variables when using prediction pooling, dynamic model averaging, and combinations of forecasts based on Bayesian predictive synthesis.
We present a novel empirical assessment of the determinants of sovereign yield synchronization dynamics in the European Monetary Union. This topic has been seldom addressed in the existing ...macroeconometric literature. We use a time-varying measure of government bond yields synchronization and Bayesian Model Averaging methods to show that the persistence of synchronization measures differs significantly between GIIPS countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) and the rest of the monetary union, as well as across periods characterized by whether the zero lower bound of interest rates was binding or not. The degree of synchronization in inflation rates with the rest of the currency area is a robust predictor of the synchronization of sovereign yields, as opposed to economic fundamentals describing the fiscal positions of individual countries. An out-of-sample forecasting exercise reveals that accounting for the most relevant economic fundamentals can lead to improvements in the directional accuracy of the forecasts of yield synchronization rates for GIIPS countries.
•We examine the determinants of sovereign yield synchronization dynamics in Europe.•We address specification uncertainty and the existence of structural breaks.•Yield synchronization dynamics differ between GIIPS economies and the rest of the European Union.•Synchronization in inflation rates is associated with yield synchronization.•Accounting for relevant economic fundamentals improves forecast accuracy for GIIPS.
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