Species distribution models (SDMs) are a valuable statistical approach for both understanding species distributions and identifying potential impacts of environmental changes or management decisions ...to species, but multiple SDMs for the same species in a region can create confusion in decision‐making processes.
One solution is to create ensembles (i.e. combinations) of predictions from existing SDMs. However, creating ensembles can be challenging if the predictions were made at different spatial resolutions, using different data sources, or with different prediction value types (e.g. abundance and probability of occurrence).
We present esdm, an r package that allows users to create an ensemble of SDM predictions overlaid onto a single base geometry. These predictions can be evaluated (e.g. through among‐model uncertainty or AUC, TSS and RMSE metrics), mapped, and exported. esdm includes a built‐in GUI created using the r package shiny, which makes the package accessible to non‐r users.
We provide an overview of esdm functionality and use esdm to create an ensemble of predictions from three blue whale Balaenoptera musculus SDMs for the California Current Ecosystem.
Species distribution models have shown that blue whales (
) occur seasonally in high densities in the most biologically productive regions of the California Current Ecosystem (CCE). Satellite ...telemetry studies have additionally shown that blue whales in the CCE regularly switch between behavioral states consistent with area-restricted searching (ARS) and transiting, indicative of foraging in and moving among prey patches, respectively. However, the relationship between the environmental correlates that serve as a proxy of prey relative to blue whale movement behavior has not been quantitatively assessed.
We investigated the association between blue whale behavioral state and environmental predictors in the coastal environments of the CCE using a long-term satellite tracking data set (72 tagged whales; summer-fall months 1998-2008), and predicted the likelihood of ARS behavior at tracked locations using nonparametric multiplicative regression models. The models were built using data from years of cool, productive conditions and validated against years of warm, low-productivity conditions.
The best model contained four predictors: chlorophyll-
, sea surface temperature, and seafloor aspect and depth. This model estimated highest ARS likelihood (> 0.8) in areas with high chlorophyll-
levels (> 0.65 mg/m
), intermediate sea surface temperatures (11.6-17.5 °C), and shallow depths (< 850 m). Overall, the model correctly predicted behavioral state throughout the coastal environments of the CCE, while the validation indicated an ecosystem-wide reduction in ARS likelihood during warm years, especially in the southern portion. For comparison, a spatial coordinates model (longitude × latitude) performed slightly better than the environmental model during warm years, providing further evidence that blue whales exhibit strong foraging site fidelity, even when conditions are not conducive to successful foraging.
We showed that blue whale behavioral state in the CCE was predictable from environmental correlates and that ARS behavior was most prevalent in regions of known high whale density, likely reflecting where large prey aggregations consistently develop in summer-fall. Our models of whale movement behavior enhanced our understanding of species distribution by further indicating where foraging was more likely, which could be of value in the identification of key regions of importance for endangered species in management considerations. The models also provided evidence that decadal-scale environmental fluctuations can drive shifts in the distribution and foraging success of this blue whale population.
Introduction/Objectives:
Many health systems screen patients for social determinants of health and refer patients with social needs to community service organizations for assistance. However, little ...is known about social determinants of health among health system employees. We sought to examine the prevalence of social determinants among employees of The MetroHealth System, a large safety-net health system in Cleveland, Ohio.
Methods:
We invited participants in an employee wellness program to answer the same screening questions that patients answer about 9 social determinants of health, including food insecurity, financial strain, transportation difficulty, inability to pay for housing or utilities, intimate partner violence, social isolation, infrequent physical activity, daily stress, and lack of internet access. We then determined the percentage of employees who met pre-defined criteria for being at risk for each social determinant. We also examined how these percentages varied across employee job categories.
Results:
Of 4191 full-time employees, 1932 (46%) completed the survey. The percentage of employees at risk for each social determinant were: food insecurity (11%), financial strain (12%), transportation difficulty (4%), inability to pay for housing or utilities (10%), intimate partner violence (4%), social isolation (48%), infrequent physical activity (10%), daily stress (58%), and lack of internet access (3%). Being at risk for specific social determinants was more common among support staff compared to staff physicians and nurses. For example, the survey participants included 436 administrative support staff, a job category that includes secretaries and patient service representatives. Among this group, 20% reported food insecurity, 20% financial strain, and 17% inability to pay for housing or utilities.
Conclusions:
Social determinants of health are common among health system employees, especially among workers in lower paid job categories. Health systems should routinely screen employees for social determinants and adjust salaries, benefits, and assistance programs to address their social needs.
1. Management of highly migratory species is reliant on spatially and temporally explicit information on their distribution and abundance. Satellite telemetry provides time-series data on individual ...movements. However, these data are underutilized in management applications in part because they provide presence-only information rather than abundance information such as density. 2. Eastern North Pacific blue whales are listed as threatened, and ship strikes have been suggested as a key factor limiting their recovery. Here, we developed a satellite-telemetry-based habitat model in a case-control design for Eastern North Pacific blue whales Balaenoptera musculus that wa combined with previously published abundance estimates to predict habitat preference and densities. Further, we operationalize an automated, near-real-time whale density prediction tool based on up-to-date environmental data for use by managers and other stakeholders. 3. A switching state-space movement model was applied to 104 blue whale satellite tracks from 1994 to 2008 to account for errors in the location estimates and provide daily positions (case points). We simulated positions using a correlated random walk model (control points) and sampled the environment at each case and control point. Generalized additive mixed models and boosted regression trees were applied to determine the probability of occurrence based on environmental covariates. Models were used to predict 8-day and monthly resolution, year-round density estimates scaled by population abundance estimates that provide a critical tool for understanding seasonal and interannual changes in habitat use. 4. The telemetry-based habitat model predicted known blue whale hot spots and had seasonal agreement with sightings data, highlighting the skill of the model for predicting blue whale habitat preference and density. We identified high interannual variability in occurrence emphasizing the benefit of dynamic models compared to multiyear averages. 5. Synthesis and applications. This near-real-time tool allows a more accurate examination of the year-round spatio-temporal overlap of blue whales with potentially harmful human activities, such as shipping. This approach should also be applicable to other species for which sufficient telemetry data are available. The dynamic predictive product developed here is an important tool that allows managers to consider finer-scale management areas that are more economically feasible and socially acceptable.
Low-frequency noise that is part of the acoustic environment for baleen whales has increased in many areas of the Northeast Pacific Ocean that contain whale habitat. We conducted a spatially explicit ...risk assessment of noise from commercial shipping to blue, fin, and humpback whale habitats in Southern California waters and explored how noise is affected by several place-based management techniques: a National Marine Sanctuary, an Area to be Avoided (ATBA), and a Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS). We used shipping data to model noise at 2 frequencies that are part of the acoustic environment for these species and capture the variable contributions from shipping to noise. Predicted noise levels in Southern California waters suggest high, region-wide exposure to shipping noise. Our risk assessment identified several areas where the acoustic environment may be degraded for blue, fin, and humpback whales because their habitat overlaps with areas of elevated noise from shipping traffic and 2 places where blue and humpback whale feeding areas overlap with lower predicted noise levels. One of the places with lower predicted noise occurs in the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary (CINMS). Noise has not been directly managed within the CINMS; instead, reduced noise in this portion of the CINMS is likely an ancillary benefit of the ATBA surrounding most of the Sanctuary. Areas of elevated noise in the CINMS also occur, primarily where a TSS intersects the Sanctuaryís boundaries. Our risk assessment framework can be used to evaluate how shipping traffic affects acoustic environments and explore management strategies.
In this review, we combine existing published and unpublished information along with expert judgment to identify and support the delineation of 28 Biologically Important Areas (BIAs) in U.S. waters ...along the West Coast for blue whales, gray whales, humpback whales, and harbor porpoises. BIAs for blue whales and humpback whales are based on high concentration areas of feeding animals observed from small boat surveys, ship surveys, and opportunistic sources. These BIAs compare favorably to broader habitat-based density models. BIAs for gray whales are based on their migratory corridor as they transit between primary feeding areas located in northern latitudes and breeding areas off Mexico. Additional gray whale BIAs are defined for the primary feeding areas of a smaller resident population. Two small and resident population BIAs defined for harbor porpoises located off California encompass the populations' primary areas of use. The size of the individual BIAs ranged from approximately 171 to 138,000 km.sup.2. The BIAs for feeding blue, gray, and humpback whales represent relatively small portions of the overall West Coast area (< 5%) but encompass a large majority (77 to 89%) of the thousands of sightings documented and evaluated for each species. We also evaluate and discuss potential feeding BIAs for fin whales, but none are delineated due to limited or conflicting information. The intent of identifying BIAs is to synthesize existing biological information in a transparent format that is easily accessible to scientists, managers, policymakers, and the public for use during the planning and design phase of anthropogenic activities for which U.S. statutes require the characterization and minimization of impacts on marine mammals. To maintain their utility, West Coast region BIAs should be re-evaluated and revised, if necessary, as new information becomes available. Key Words: feeding area, migratory corridor, resident population, anthropogenic sound, species distribution, U.S. West Coast, North Pacific Ocean
Ocular diseases present a unique challenge and opportunity for therapeutic development. The eye has distinct advantages as a therapy target given its accessibility, compartmentalization, immune ...privilege, and size. Various methodologies for therapeutic delivery in ocular diseases are under investigation that impact long-term efficacy, toxicity, invasiveness, and delivery range. While gene, cell, and antibody therapy and nanoparticle delivery directly treat regions that have been damaged by disease, they can be limited in the duration of the therapeutic delivery and have a focal effect. In contrast, contact lenses and ocular implants can more effectively achieve sustained and widespread delivery of therapies; however, they can increase dilution of therapeutics, which may result in reduced effectiveness. Current therapies either offer a sustained release or a broad therapeutic effect, and future directions should aim toward achieving both. This review discusses current ocular therapy delivery systems and their applications, mechanisms for delivering therapeutic products to ocular tissues, advantages and challenges associated with each delivery system, current approved therapies, and clinical trials. Future directions for the improvement in existing ocular therapies include combination therapies, such as combined cell and gene therapies, as well as AI-driven devices, such as cortical implants that directly transmit visual information to the cortex.
Abstract Retinitis pigmentosa (RP) is a heterogeneous disease and the main cause of vision loss within the group of inherited retinal diseases (IRDs). IRDs are a group of rare disorders caused by ...mutations in one or more of over 280 genes which ultimately result in blindness. Modifier genes play a key role in modulating disease phenotypes, and mutations in them can affect disease outcomes, rate of progression, and severity. Our previous studies have demonstrated that the nuclear hormone receptor 2 family e, member 3 ( Nr2e3 ) gene reduced disease progression and loss of photoreceptor cell layers in Rho P23H − / − mice. This follow up, pharmacology study evaluates a longitudinal NR2E3 dose response in the clinically relevant heterozygous Rho P23H mouse. Reduced retinal degeneration and improved retinal morphology was observed 6 months following treatment evaluating three different NR2E3 doses. Histological and immunohistochemical analysis revealed regions of photoreceptor rescue in the treated retinas of Rho P23H+/ − mice. Functional assessment by electroretinogram (ERG) showed attenuated photoreceptor degeneration with all doses. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of different doses of NR2E3 at reducing retinal degeneration and informs dose selection for clinical trials of Rho P23H -associated RP.
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