Changes over the scale of decades in oceanic environments present a range of challenges for management and utilisation of ocean resources. Here we investigate sources of global temporal variation in ...Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Ocean Colour (Chl-a) and their co-variation, over a 14 year period using statistical methodologies that partition sources of variation into inter-annual and annual components and explicitly account for daily auto-correlation. The variation in SST shows bands of increasing variability with increasing latitude, while the analysis of annual variability in Chl-a shows mostly mid-latitude high variability bands. Covariation patterns of SST and Chl-a suggests several different mechanisms impacting Chl-a change and variance. Our high spatial resolution analysis indicates these are likely to be operating at relatively small spatial scales. There are large regions showing warming and rising of Chl-a, contrasting with regions that show warming and decreasing Chl-a. The covariation pattern in annual variation in SST and Chl-a reveals broad latitudinal bands. On smaller scales there are significant regional anomalies where upwellings are known to occur. Over decadal time scales both trend and variation in SST, Chl-a and their covariance is highly spatially heterogeneous, indicating that monitoring and resource management must be regionally appropriate.
The deep ocean is the largest and least-explored ecosystem on Earth, and a uniquely energy-poor environment. The distribution, drivers and origins of deep-sea biodiversity remain unknown at global ...scales. Here we analyse a database of more than 165,000 distribution records of Ophiuroidea (brittle stars), a dominant component of sea-floor fauna, and find patterns of biodiversity unlike known terrestrial or coastal marine realms. Both patterns and environmental predictors of deep-sea (2,000-6,500 m) species richness fundamentally differ from those found in coastal (0-20 m), continental shelf (20-200 m), and upper-slope (200-2,000 m) waters. Continental shelf to upper-slope richness consistently peaks in tropical Indo-west Pacific and Caribbean (0-30°) latitudes, and is well explained by variations in water temperature. In contrast, deep-sea species show maximum richness at higher latitudes (30-50°), concentrated in areas of high carbon export flux and regions close to continental margins. We reconcile this structuring of oceanic biodiversity using a species-energy framework, with kinetic energy predicting shallow-water richness, while chemical energy (export productivity) and proximity to slope habitats drive deep-sea diversity. Our findings provide a global baseline for conservation efforts across the sea floor, and demonstrate that deep-sea ecosystems show a biodiversity pattern consistent with ecological theory, despite being different from other planetary-scale habitats.
In 2004, Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) addressed a United Nations (UN) call for area-based planning, including for marine-protected areas that resulted in a global effort to ...describe ecologically or biologically significant marine areas (EBSAs). We summarized the results, assessed their consistency, and evaluated the process developed by the Secretariat of the CBD to engage countries and experts in 9 regional workshops held from 2011 to 2014. Experts from 92 countries and 79 regional or international bodies participated. They considered 250 million km² of the world's ocean area (two-thirds of the total). The 204 areas they examined in detail differed widely in area (from 5.5 km² to 11.1 million km²). Despite the initial focus of the CBD process on areas outside national jurisdiction, only 31 of the areas examined were solely outside national jurisdiction. Thirty-five extended into national jurisdictions, 137 were solely within national jurisdictions, and 28 included the jurisdictions of more than 1 country (1 area lacked precise boundaries). Data were sufficient to rank 88-99% of the areas relative to each of the 7 criteria for EBSAs agreed to previously by Parties to the CBD. The naturalness criterion ranked high for a smaller percentage of the EBSAs (31%) than other criteria (51-70%), indicating the difficulty in finding relatively undisturbed areas in the ocean. The highly participatory nature of the workshops, including easy and consistent access to the relevant information facilitated by 2 technical teams, contributed to the workshop participants success in identifying areas that could be ranked relative to most criteria and areas that extend across jurisdictional boundaries. The formal recognition of workshop results by the Conference of Parties to the CBD resulted in these 204 areas being identified as EBSAs by the 196 Parties. They represent the only suite of marine areas recognized by the international community for their greater importance for biodiversity it is their importance for biodiversity itself not conservation as process explicitly excluded management issues than their surroundings. This comes at a critical juncture in negotiations at the UN that will consider developing a new implementation agreement under UN Convention of the Law of the Sea to support the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity beyond areas of national jurisdiction. The EBSA description process is a good example of how to bring the international community together to build a shared understanding of which ocean areas are particularly valuable to biodiversity. En 2004, las Partes para la Convención sobre la Diversidad Biológica (CDB) señalaron un llamado de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) para la planeación con base en áreas, el cual incluía la descripción de áreas marinas ecológica y biológicamente significativas (EBSAs, en inglés) como resultado de un esfuerzo global. Resumimos los resultados, valoramos su consistencia y evaluamos el proceso desarrollado por el Secretariado de la CDB para involucrar a los países y a los expertos en el tema en nueve talleres regionales, los cuales se llevaron a cabo de 2011 a 2014. En ellos participaron los expertos de 92 países y 79 cuerpos regionales o internacionales. Los expertos consideraron 250 millones de km² del área oceánica global (dos tercios del total). Las 204 áreas que examinaron a detalle difirieron ampliamente en el área (desde 5.5 km² a 11.1 millones de km²). A pesar del enfoque inicial del proceso de la CDB sobre las áreas fuera de la jurisdicción nacional, sólo 31 de las áreas examinadas estuvieron completamente fuera de alguna jurisdicción nacional. Del total de áreas examinadas, 35 áreas se extendían dentro de una jurisdicción nacional, 137 estaban únicamente dentro de alguna jurisdicción nacional y 28 incluían las jurisdicción de más de un país (un área carecía de fronteras específicas). Los datos fueron suficientes para clasificar 88-99% de las áreas en relación a cada uno de los siete criterios para establecer EBSAs, los cuales ya habían sido acordados previamente por las Partes de la CDB. El criterio de naturalidad fue más alto para un porcentaje más pequeño de EBSAs (31%) que otros criterios (51-70%), lo que indica la dificultad de encontrar áreas relativamente poco perturbadas en el océano. La naturaleza altamente participativa de los talleres, incluyendo el acceso fácil y continuo a la información proporcionada por los dos equipos técnicos, contribuyó al éxito de los participantes en la identificación de áreas que podrían estar clasificadas en relación al mayor número de criterios y de áreas que se extienden a lo largo de fronteras jurídicas. El reconocimiento formal de los resultados de los talleres por parte de la Conferencia de Partes de la CDB derivó en que se identificara a estas 204 áreas como EBSAs por parte de las 196 Partes. Estas representan el único conjunto de áreas marinas reconocido por la comunidad internacional por su gran importancia para la conservación de la biodiversidad y su entorno. Esto llega en un momento crítico en las negociaciones de la ONU para considerar el desarrollo de un nuevo acuerdo de implementación bajo la Convención de la ONU para la Ley del Mar, el cual apoyará la conservación y el uso sustentable de la diversidad biológica marina más allá de las áreas de jurisdicción nacional. El proceso de descripción de EBSAs es un buen ejemplo de cómo unir a la comunidad internacional para la construcción de un entendimiento compartido de cuáles áreas oceánicas son particularmente valiosas para la biodiversidad.
In this paper, a case is made for the use of model-based approaches for the analysis of community data. This involves the direct specification of a statistical model for the observed multivariate ...data. Recent advances in statistical modelling mean that it is now possible to build models that are appropriate for the data which address key ecological questions in a statistically coherent manner. Key advantages of this approach include interpretability, flexibility, and efficiency, which we explain in detail and illustrate by example. The steps in a model-based approach to analysis are outlined, with an emphasis on key features arising in a multivariate context. A key distinction in the model-based approach is the emphasis on diagnostic checking to ensure that the model provides reasonable agreement with the observed data. Two examples are presented that illustrate how the model-based approach can provide insights into ecological problems not previously available. In the first example, we test for a treatment effect in a study where different sites had different sampling intensities, which was handled by adding an offset term to the model. In the second example, we incorporate trait information into a model for ordinal response in order to identify the main reasons why species differ in their environmental response.
We present a novel approach to the statistical analysis and prediction of multispecies data. The approach allows the simultaneous grouping and quantification of multiple species’ responses to ...environmental gradients. The underlying statistical model is a finite mixture model, where mixing is performed over the individual species’ responses to environmental gradients. Species with similar responses are grouped with minimal information loss. We term these groups species archetypes. Each species archetype has an associated GLM that can be used to predict distributions with appropriate measures of uncertainty. Initially, we illustrate the concept and method using artificial data and then with application to real data comprising 200 species from the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon on 13 oceanographic and geological gradients from 12°S to 24°S. The 200 species from the GBR are well represented by 15 species archetypes. The model is interpreted through maps of the probability of presence for a fine scale set of locations throughout the study area. Maps of uncertainty are also produced to provide statistical context. The presence of each species archetype was strongly influenced by oceanographic gradients, principally temperature, oxygen and salinity. The number of species in each group ranged from 4 to 34. The method has potential application to the analysis of multispecies distribution patterns and for multispecies management.
The physical climate defines a significant portion of the habitats in which biological communities and species reside. It is important to quantify these environmental conditions, and how they have ...changed, as this will inform future efforts to study many natural systems. In this article, we present the results of a statistical summary of the variability in sea surface temperature (SST) time-series data for the waters surrounding Australia, from 1993 to 2013. We partition variation in the SST series into annual trends, inter-annual trends, and a number of components of random variation. We utilise satellite data and validate the statistical summary from these data to summaries of data from long-term monitoring stations and from the global drifter program. The spatially dense results, available as maps from the Australian Oceanographic Data Network's data portal (http://www.cmar.csiro.au/geonetwork/srv/en/metadata.show?id=51805), show clear trends that associate with oceanographic features. Noteworthy oceanographic features include: average warming was greatest off southern West Australia and off eastern Tasmania, where the warming was around 0.6°C per decade for a twenty year study period, and insubstantial warming in areas dominated by the East Australian Current, but this area did exhibit high levels of inter-annual variability (long-term trend increases and decreases but does not increase on average). The results of the analyses can be directly incorporated into (biogeographic) models that explain variation in biological data where both biological and environmental data are on a fine scale.
Species distribution models (SDMs) are an important tool for studying the patterns of species across environmental and geographic space. For community data, a common approach involves fitting an SDM ...to each species separately, although the large number of models makes interpretation difficult and fails to exploit any similarities between individual species responses. A recently proposed alternative that can potentially overcome these difficulties is species archetype models (SAMs), a model-based approach that clusters species based on their environmental response. In this paper, we compare the predictive performance of SAMs against separate SDMs using a number of multi-species data sets. Results show that SAMs improve model accuracy and discriminatory capacity compared to separate SDMs. This is achieved by borrowing strength from common species having higher information content. Moreover, the improvement increases as the species become rarer.
At the UN Conference on Sustainable Development in Rio in June 2012, world leaders committed to the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity in areas beyond national ...jurisdiction (the high seas). Our analysis of gaps in high seas management indicates that a paradigm shift to a more systematic approach will be needed to safeguard high seas biodiversity from mounting threats. Experience from terrestrial and coastal areas indicates that a systematic approach to conservation planning and management can help to maintain ecosystem health and productivity while enabling sustainable use. Our analysis further demonstrates that the current legal regime on the high seas is insufficient to realize these objectives: management institutions have neither an adequate mandate for integrated planning nor the ability to effectively coordinate across multiple management regimes. We identify key elements for future high seas management and posit that a two‐pronged approach is most promising: the development of an improved global legal regime that incorporates systematic planning as well as the expansion of existing and new regional agreements and mandates. This combined approach is most likely to achieve the required ecosystem‐based, integrated and science‐based management that world leaders at Rio acknowledged should underpin ocean management.
The United Nations General Assembly in 2006 and 2009 adopted resolutions that call for the identification and protection of vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs) from significant adverse impacts of ...bottom fishing. While general criteria have been produced, there are no guidelines or protocols that elaborate on the process from initial identification through to the protection of VMEs. Here, based upon an expert review of existing practices, a 10-step framework is proposed: (1) Comparatively assess potential VME indicator taxa and habitats in a region; (2) determine VME thresholds; (3) consider areas already known for their ecological importance; (4) compile information on the distributions of likely VME taxa and habitats, as well as related environmental data; (5) develop predictive distribution models for VME indicator taxa and habitats; (6) compile known or likely fishing impacts; (7) produce a predicted VME naturalness distribution (areas of low cumulative impacts); (8) identify areas of higher value to user groups; (9) conduct management strategy evaluations to produce trade-off scenarios; (10) review and re-iterate, until spatial management scenarios are developed that fulfil international obligations and regional conservation and management objectives. To date, regional progress has been piecemeal and incremental. The proposed 10-step framework combines these various experiences into a systematic approach.
•The United Nations has passed resolutions to protect vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs).•Limited practical guidance exists on how to identify VMEs.•Approaches differ regionally, but none to date have been systematic.•Experiences and good practices are compiled here into a 10-step systematic approach.•Better integration across sectors will become increasingly necessary.
Understanding patterns of biodiversity in deep sea systems is increasingly important because human activities are extending further into these areas. However, obtaining data is difficult, limiting ...the ability of science to inform management decisions. We have used three different methods of quantifying biodiversity to describe patterns of biodiversity in an area that includes two marine reserves in deep water off southern Australia. We used biological data collected during a recent survey, combined with extensive physical data to model, predict and map three different attributes of biodiversity: distributions of common species, beta diversity and rank abundance distributions (RAD). The distribution of each of eight common species was unique, although all the species respond to a depth-correlated physical gradient. Changes in composition (beta diversity) were large, even between sites with very similar environmental conditions. Composition at any one site was highly uncertain, and the suite of species changed dramatically both across and down slope. In contrast, the distributions of the RAD components of biodiversity (community abundance, richness, and evenness) were relatively smooth across the study area, suggesting that assemblage structure (i.e. the distribution of abundances of species) is limited, irrespective of species composition. Seamounts had similar biodiversity based on metrics of species presence, beta diversity, total abundance, richness and evenness to the adjacent continental slope in the same depth ranges. These analyses suggest that conservation objectives need to clearly identify which aspects of biodiversity are valued, and employ an appropriate suite of methods to address these aspects, to ensure that conservation goals are met.
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