Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of ...methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20-80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).The impact of climate change on phosphorus (P) loss from land to water is unclear. Here, the authors use P flux data, climate simulations and P transfer models to show that only large scale agricultural change will limit the effect of climate change on average winter P loads in three catchments across the UK.
Protected areas (PAs) are a key strategy for protecting biological resources, but they vary considerably in their effectiveness and are frequently reported as having negative impacts on local people. ...This has contributed to a divisive and unresolved debate concerning the compatibility of environmental and socioeconomic development goals. Elucidating the relationship between positive and negative social impacts and conservation outcomes of PAs is key for the development of more effective and socially just conservation. We conducted a global meta‐analysis on 165 PAs using data from 171 published studies. We assessed how PAs affect the well‐being of local people, the factors associated with these impacts, and crucially the relationship between PAs’ conservation and socioeconomic outcomes. Protected areas associated with positive socioeconomic outcomes were more likely to report positive conservation outcomes. Positive conservation and socioeconomic outcomes were more likely to occur when PAs adopted comanagement regimes, empowered local people, reduced economic inequalities, and maintained cultural and livelihood benefits. Whereas the strictest regimes of PA management attempted to exclude anthropogenic influences to achieve biological conservation objectives, PAs that explicitly integrated local people as stakeholders tended to be more effective at achieving joint biological conservation and socioeconomic development outcomes. Strict protection may be needed in some circumstances, yet our results demonstrate that conservation and development objectives can be synergistic and highlight management strategies that increase the probability of maximizing both conservation performance and development outcomes of PAs.
Detection of the IceCube-170922A neutrino coincident with the flaring blazar TXS 0506+056, the first and only ∼3 high-energy neutrino source association to date, offers a potential breakthrough in ...our understanding of high-energy cosmic particles and blazar physics. We present a comprehensive analysis of TXS 0506+056 during its flaring state, using newly collected Swift, NuSTAR, and X-shooter data with Fermi observations and numerical models to constrain the blazar's particle acceleration processes and multimessenger (electromagnetic (EM) and high-energy neutrino) emissions. Accounting properly for EM cascades in the emission region, we find a physically consistent picture only within a hybrid leptonic scenario, with γ-rays produced by external inverse-Compton processes and high-energy neutrinos via a radiatively subdominant hadronic component. We derive robust constraints on the blazar's neutrino and cosmic-ray emissions and demonstrate that, because of cascade effects, the 0.1-100 keV emissions of TXS 0506+056 serve as a better probe of its hadronic acceleration and high-energy neutrino production processes than its GeV-TeV emissions. If the IceCube neutrino association holds, physical conditions in the TXS 0506+056 jet must be close to optimal for high-energy neutrino production, and are not favorable for ultrahigh-energy cosmic-ray acceleration. Alternatively, the challenges we identify in generating a significant rate of IceCube neutrino detections from TXS 0506+056 may disfavor single-zone models, in which γ-rays and high-energy neutrinos are produced in a single emission region. In concert with continued operations of the high-energy neutrino observatories, we advocate regular X-ray monitoring of TXS 0506+056 and other blazars in order to test single-zone blazar emission models, clarify the nature and extent of their hadronic acceleration processes, and carry out the most sensitive possible search for additional multimessenger sources.
Dam removal: Listening in Foley, M. M.; Bellmore, J. R.; O'Connor, J. E. ...
Water resources research,
July 2017, 2017-07-00, 20170701, Letnik:
53, Številka:
7
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Dam removal is widely used as an approach for river restoration in the United States. The increase in dam removals—particularly large dams—and associated dam‐removal studies over the last few decades ...motivated a working group at the USGS John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis to review and synthesize available studies of dam removals and their findings. Based on dam removals thus far, some general conclusions have emerged: (1) physical responses are typically fast, with the rate of sediment erosion largely dependent on sediment characteristics and dam‐removal strategy; (2) ecological responses to dam removal differ among the affected upstream, downstream, and reservoir reaches; (3) dam removal tends to quickly reestablish connectivity, restoring the movement of material and organisms between upstream and downstream river reaches; (4) geographic context, river history, and land use significantly influence river restoration trajectories and recovery potential because they control broader physical and ecological processes and conditions; and (5) quantitative modeling capability is improving, particularly for physical and broad‐scale ecological effects, and gives managers information needed to understand and predict long‐term effects of dam removal on riverine ecosystems. Although these studies collectively enhance our understanding of how riverine ecosystems respond to dam removal, knowledge gaps remain because most studies have been short (< 5 years) and do not adequately represent the diversity of dam types, watershed conditions, and dam‐removal methods in the U.S.
Key Points
Dam removal is an increasingly common approach to river restoration in the United States
Dam‐removal studies provide insights on key controls influencing the physical and ecological responses to dam removal
Although many aspects of physical and ecological systems react quickly to dam removal, overall response trajectories depend on how and where dams are removed and overall watershed conditions
Abstract
Globally, there are millions of kilometres of drainage ditches which have the potential to emit the powerful greenhouse gas methane (CH
4
), but these emissions are not reported in budgets ...of inland waters or drained lands. Here, we synthesise data to show that ditches spanning a global latitudinal gradient and across different land uses emit large quantities of CH
4
to the atmosphere. Area-specific emissions are comparable to those from lakes, streams, reservoirs, and wetlands. While it is generally assumed that drainage negates terrestrial CH
4
emissions, we find that CH
4
emissions from ditches can, on average, offset ∼10% of this reduction. Using global areas of drained land we show that ditches contribute 3.5 Tg CH
4
yr
−1
(0.6–10.5 Tg CH
4
yr
−1
); equivalent to 0.2%–3% of global anthropogenic CH
4
emissions. A positive relationship between CH
4
emissions and temperature was found, and emissions were highest from eutrophic ditches. We advocate the inclusion of ditch emissions in national GHG inventories, as neglecting them can lead to incorrect conclusions concerning the impact of drainage-based land management on CH
4
budgets.
Context.
On 2020 April 19 a coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in situ by Solar Orbiter at a heliocentric distance of about 0.8 AU. The CME was later observed in situ on April 20 by the Wind ...and BepiColombo spacecraft whilst BepiColombo was located very close to Earth. This CME presents a good opportunity for a triple radial alignment study, as the spacecraft were separated by less than 5° in longitude. The source of the CME, which was launched on April 15, was an almost entirely isolated streamer blowout. The Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO)-A spacecraft observed the event remotely from −75.1° longitude, which is an exceptionally well suited viewpoint for heliospheric imaging of an Earth directed CME.
Aims.
The configuration of the four spacecraft has provided an exceptionally clean link between remote imaging and in situ observations of the CME. We have used the in situ observations of the CME at Solar Orbiter, Wind, and BepiColombo and the remote observations of the CME at STEREO-A to determine the global shape of the CME and its evolution as it propagated through the inner heliosphere.
Methods.
We used three magnetic flux rope models that are based on different assumptions about the flux rope morphology to interpret the large-scale structure of the interplanetary CME (ICME). The 3DCORE model assumes an elliptical cross-section with a fixed aspect-ratio calculated by using the STEREO Heliospheric Imager (HI) observations as a constraint. The other two models are variants of the kinematically-distorted flux rope (KFR) technique, where two flux rope cross-sections are considered: one in a uniform solar wind and another in a solar-minimum-like structured solar wind. Analysis of CME evolution has been complemented by the use of (1) the ELEvoHI model to compare predicted CME arrival times and confirm the connection between the imaging and in situ observations, and (2) the PREDSTORM model, which provides an estimate of the
Dst
index at Earth using Solar Orbiter magnetometer data as if it were a real–time upstream solar wind monitor.
Results.
A clear flattening of the CME cross-section has been observed by STEREO-A, and further confirmed by comparing profiles of the flux rope models to the in situ data, where the distorted flux rope cross-section qualitatively agrees most with in situ observations of the magnetic field at Solar Orbiter. Comparing in situ observations of the magnetic field between spacecraft, we find that the dependence of the maximum (mean) magnetic field strength decreases with heliocentric distance as
r
−1.24 ± 0.50
(
r
−1.12 ± 0.14
), which is in disagreement with previous studies. Further assessment of the axial and poloidal magnetic field strength dependencies suggests that the expansion of the CME is likely neither self-similar nor cylindrically symmetric.
Global peatlands store more carbon than is naturally present in the atmosphere
. However, many peatlands are under pressure from drainage-based agriculture, plantation development and fire, with the ...equivalent of around 3 per cent of all anthropogenic greenhouse gases emitted from drained peatland
. Efforts to curb such emissions are intensifying through the conservation of undrained peatlands and re-wetting of drained systems
. Here we report eddy covariance data for carbon dioxide from 16 locations and static chamber measurements for methane from 41 locations in the UK and Ireland. We combine these with published data from sites across all major peatland biomes. We find that the mean annual effective water table depth (WTD
; that is, the average depth of the aerated peat layer) overrides all other ecosystem- and management-related controls on greenhouse gas fluxes. We estimate that every 10 centimetres of reduction in WTD
could reduce the net warming impact of CO
and CH
emissions (100-year global warming potentials) by the equivalent of at least 3 tonnes of CO
per hectare per year, until WTD
is less than 30 centimetres. Raising water levels further would continue to have a net cooling effect until WTD
is within 10 centimetres of the surface. Our results suggest that greenhouse gas emissions from peatlands drained for agriculture could be greatly reduced without necessarily halting their productive use. Halving WTD
in all drained agricultural peatlands, for example, could reduce emissions by the equivalent of over 1 per cent of global anthropogenic emissions.
Broad absorption signatures from alkali metals, such as the sodium (Na I) and potassium (K I) resonance doublets, have long been predicted in the optical atmospheric spectra of cloud-free irradiated ...gas giant exoplanets
. However, observations have revealed only the narrow cores of these features rather than the full pressure-broadened profiles
. Cloud and haze opacity at the day-night planetary terminator are considered to be responsible for obscuring the absorption-line wings, which hinders constraints on absolute atmospheric abundances
. Here we report an optical transmission spectrum for the 'hot Saturn' exoplanet WASP-96b obtained with the Very Large Telescope, which exhibits the complete pressure-broadened profile of the sodium absorption feature. The spectrum is in excellent agreement with cloud-free, solar-abundance models assuming chemical equilibrium. We are able to measure a precise, absolute sodium abundance of logε
= Formula: see text, and use it as a proxy for the planet's atmospheric metallicity relative to the solar value (Z
/Z
= Formula: see text). This result is consistent with the mass-metallicity trend observed for Solar System planets and exoplanets
.
The impact of COVID-19 on physical and mental health and employment after hospitalisation with acute disease is not well understood. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of ...COVID-19-related hospitalisation on health and employment, to identify factors associated with recovery, and to describe recovery phenotypes.
The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a multicentre, long-term follow-up study of adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital in the UK with a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19, involving an assessment between 2 and 7 months after discharge, including detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical testing. Multivariable logistic regression was done for the primary outcome of patient-perceived recovery, with age, sex, ethnicity, body-mass index, comorbidities, and severity of acute illness as covariates. A post-hoc cluster analysis of outcomes for breathlessness, fatigue, mental health, cognitive impairment, and physical performance was done using the clustering large applications k-medoids approach. The study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN10980107).
We report findings for 1077 patients discharged from hospital between March 5 and Nov 30, 2020, who underwent assessment at a median of 5·9 months (IQR 4·9–6·5) after discharge. Participants had a mean age of 58 years (SD 13); 384 (36%) were female, 710 (69%) were of white ethnicity, 288 (27%) had received mechanical ventilation, and 540 (50%) had at least two comorbidities. At follow-up, only 239 (29%) of 830 participants felt fully recovered, 158 (20%) of 806 had a new disability (assessed by the Washington Group Short Set on Functioning), and 124 (19%) of 641 experienced a health-related change in occupation. Factors associated with not recovering were female sex, middle age (40–59 years), two or more comorbidities, and more severe acute illness. The magnitude of the persistent health burden was substantial but only weakly associated with the severity of acute illness. Four clusters were identified with different severities of mental and physical health impairment (n=767): very severe (131 patients, 17%), severe (159, 21%), moderate along with cognitive impairment (127, 17%), and mild (350, 46%). Of the outcomes used in the cluster analysis, all were closely related except for cognitive impairment. Three (3%) of 113 patients in the very severe cluster, nine (7%) of 129 in the severe cluster, 36 (36%) of 99 in the moderate cluster, and 114 (43%) of 267 in the mild cluster reported feeling fully recovered. Persistently elevated serum C-reactive protein was positively associated with cluster severity.
We identified factors related to not recovering after hospital admission with COVID-19 at 6 months after discharge (eg, female sex, middle age, two or more comorbidities, and more acute severe illness), and four different recovery phenotypes. The severity of physical and mental health impairments were closely related, whereas cognitive health impairments were independent. In clinical care, a proactive approach is needed across the acute severity spectrum, with interdisciplinary working, wide access to COVID-19 holistic clinical services, and the potential to stratify care.
UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.
We present an analysis of , O iii88, N ii122, and far-infrared (FIR) fine-structure line observations obtained with Herschel/PACS, for ∼240 local luminous infrared galaxies (LIRGs) in the Great ...Observatories All-sky LIRG Survey. We find pronounced declines ("deficits") of line-to-FIR continuum emission for N ii122, , and as a function of FIR color and infrared luminosity surface density, . The median electron density of the ionized gas in LIRGs, based on the N ii122/N ii205 ratio, is = 41 cm−3. We find that the dispersion in the deficit of LIRGs is attributed to a varying fractional contribution of photodissociation regions (PDRs) to the observed emission, f( ) = / , which increases from ∼60% to ∼95% in the warmest LIRGs. The / ratio is tightly correlated with the PDR gas kinetic temperature in sources where is not optically thick or self-absorbed. For each galaxy, we derive the average PDR hydrogen density, , and intensity of the interstellar radiation field, G, in units of and find G/ ratios of ∼0.1-50 cm3, with ULIRGs populating the upper end of the distribution. There is a relation between G/ and , showing a critical break at 5 × 1010 L kpc−2. Below , G/ remains constant, 0.32 cm3, and variations in are driven by the number density of star-forming regions within a galaxy, with no change in their PDR properties. Above , G/ increases rapidly with , signaling a departure from the typical PDR conditions found in normal star-forming galaxies toward more intense/harder radiation fields and compact geometries typical of starbursting sources.
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