Objectives To estimate global, regional (21 regions) and national (187 countries) sodium intakes in adults in 1990 and 2010. Design Bayesian hierarchical modelling using all identifiable primary ...sources. Data sources and eligibility We searched and obtained published and unpublished data from 142 surveys of 24 h urinary sodium and 103 of dietary sodium conducted between 1980 and 2010 across 66 countries. Dietary estimates were converted to urine equivalents based on 79 pairs of dual measurements. Modelling methods Bayesian hierarchical modelling used survey data and their characteristics to estimate mean sodium intake, by sex, 5 years age group and associated uncertainty for persons aged 20+ in 187 countries in 1990 and 2010. Country-level covariates were national income/person and composition of food supplies. Main outcome measures Mean sodium intake (g/day) as estimable by 24 h urine collections, without adjustment for non-urinary losses. Results In 2010, global mean sodium intake was 3.95 g/day (95% uncertainty interval: 3.89 to 4.01). This was nearly twice the WHO recommended limit of 2 g/day and equivalent to 10.06 (9.88–10.21) g/day of salt. Intake in men was ∼10% higher than in women; differences by age were small. Intakes were highest in East Asia, Central Asia and Eastern Europe (mean >4.2 g/day) and in Central Europe and Middle East/North Africa (3.9–4.2 g/day). Regional mean intakes in North America, Western Europe and Australia/New Zealand ranged from 3.4 to 3.8 g/day. Intakes were lower (<3.3 g/day), but more uncertain, in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Between 1990 and 2010, modest, but uncertain, increases in sodium intakes were identified. Conclusions Sodium intakes exceed the recommended levels in almost all countries with small differences by age and sex. Virtually all populations would benefit from sodium reduction, supported by enhanced surveillance.
Snakebite envenoming is an important cause of preventable death. The World Health Organization (WHO) set a goal to halve snakebite mortality by 2030. We used verbal autopsy and vital registration ...data to model the proportion of venomous animal deaths due to snakes by location, age, year, and sex, and applied these proportions to venomous animal contact mortality estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. In 2019, 63,400 people (95% uncertainty interval 38,900-78,600) died globally from snakebites, which was equal to an age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of 0.8 deaths (0.5-1.0) per 100,000 and represents a 36% (2-49) decrease in ASMR since 1990. India had the greatest number of deaths in 2019, equal to an ASMR of 4.0 per 100,000 (2.3-5.0). We forecast mortality will continue to decline, but not sufficiently to meet WHO's goals. Improved data collection should be prioritized to help target interventions, improve burden estimation, and monitor progress.
ObjectivesWe used findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 to report the burden of musculoskeletal disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR).MethodsThe burden of ...musculoskeletal disorders was calculated for the EMR's 22 countries between 1990 and 2013. A systematic analysis was performed on mortality and morbidity data to estimate prevalence, death, years of live lost, years lived with disability and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).ResultsFor musculoskeletal disorders, the crude DALYs rate per 100 000 increased from 1297.1 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 924.3–1703.4) in 1990 to 1606.0 (95% UI 1141.2–2130.4) in 2013. During 1990–2013, the total DALYs of musculoskeletal disorders increased by 105.2% in the EMR compared with a 58.0% increase in the rest of the world. The burden of musculoskeletal disorders as a proportion of total DALYs increased from 2.4% (95% UI 1.7–3.0) in 1990 to 4.7% (95% UI 3.6–5.8) in 2013. The range of point prevalence (per 1000) among the EMR countries was 28.2–136.0 for low back pain, 27.3–49.7 for neck pain, 9.7–37.3 for osteoarthritis (OA), 0.6–2.2 for rheumatoid arthritis and 0.1–0.8 for gout. Low back pain and neck pain had the highest burden in EMR countries.ConclusionsThis study shows a high burden of musculoskeletal disorders, with a faster increase in EMR compared with the rest of the world. The reasons for this faster increase need to be explored. Our findings call for incorporating prevention and control programmes that should include improving health data, addressing risk factors, providing evidence-based care and community programmes to increase awareness.
ObjectiveEvidence from randomised trials of pharmacological treatments on long-term blood pressure (BP) reduction is limited. We investigated the antihypertensive drug effects on BP over time and ...across different participant characteristics.MethodsWe conducted an individual patient-level data meta-analysis of 52 large-scale randomised clinical trials in the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists’ Collaboration using mixed models to examine treatment effects on BP over 4 years of mean follow-up.ResultsThere were 363 684 participants (42% women), with baseline mean age=65 years and mean systolic/diastolic BP=152/87 mm Hg, and among whom 19% were current smokers, 49% had cardiovascular disease, 28% had diabetes and 69% were taking antihypertensive treatment at baseline. Drugs were effective in lowering BP showing maximal effect after 12 months and gradually attenuating towards later years. Based on measures taken ≥12 months postrandomisation, mean systolic/diastolic BP difference (95% CI) between more and less intense BP-lowering treatment was −11.1 (−11.3 to −10.8)/−5.6 (−5.7 to −5.4) mm Hg; between active treatment and placebo was −5.1 (−5.3 to −5.0)/−2.3 (−2.4 to −2.2) mm Hg; and between active and control arms for drug comparison trials was −1.4 (−1.5 to −1.3)/−0.6 (−0.7 to −0.6) mm Hg. BP reductions were observed across different baseline BP values and ages, and by sex, history of cardiovascular disease and diabetes and prior antihypertensive treatment use.ConclusionThese findings suggest that BP-lowering pharmacotherapy is effective in lowering BP, up to 4 years on average, in people with different characteristics. Appropriate treatment strategies are needed to sustain substantive long-term BP reductions.
Background: In developing countries like Iran, the burden of obesity increases through comorbid diseases. We estimated the mean body mass index (BMI) and prevalence of overweight/obesity by ...components of sex, age, province, and year in Iran from 1990 to 2016. Methods: Through a comprehensive systematic review, all relevant data sources pooled results with individual level national and sub-national population-based studies. Two stages of age-spatio-temporal modeling and Gaussian process regression were used to estimate mean BMI, followed by estimation of obesity and overweight prevalence through the crosswalk modeling. Results: In 2016, the age-standardized mean BMI was 27.9 (27.2–28.7) kg/m² in women and 25.9 (25.2–26.5) kg/m² in men. At the same time, the prevalence rates of overweight and obesity were 71.7% (67.9–75.8), and 36.8% (34.1–39.7) in females, and 57.1% (53.7–60.6), and 18.4% (16.9–20) in men. This shows a considerable increase from 1990 when the figures were respectively 24.4 (23.3–25.5) , 36.6% (32.2–41.5), and 8.2% (95% UI: 6.9–9.7) in women, and 23.5 (22.5–24.5), 30% (26.4–34), and 4.7% (4.0–5.5) in men, with 66% attributed to population growth. Conclusion: Considering the increasing trends of BMI, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) seem far out of reach. We need to call for action, aiming for both weight loss strategies and controlling the comorbidities that mediate high BMI risk.
Background: Raised blood pressure is a serious risk factor for several non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Iran. In this study, we aimed to estimate the mean of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and ...diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and subsequently, the prevalence of hypertension by sex, age, province, and year in Iran. Methods: We conducted a systematic review using PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus databases through December 2017. We also used individual level data from eight national surveys, aggregated data from seven subnational population-based studies, and extracted data reported in 52 published studies. We used a two-stage model including Age-Spatio-Temporal and Gaussian process regression (GPR) to estimate mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure and used a crosswalk model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension by sex, age, province, and year. Results: The number of hypertensive adults increased in Iran from 1.8 million (882 thousand in women) in 1990 to 13.6 million (7.2 million in women) in 2016. The national age-standardized prevalence of hypertension increased from 8.7% (7.8–9.7) to 28.8% (27.7–30.0) in women and from 8.0% (7.2–8.9) to 24.2% (23.1–25.3) in men from 1990 to 2016. Mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures show a similar increasing trend. Conclusion: During the past 27 years, we observed an increase in the age-standardized prevalence and mean levels of blood pressure. If the current trend in levels of blood pressure and prevalence of hypertension continue in the coming years, Iran will not achieve the sixth target of the Global Action Plan by 2020 and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030.
Background
The increasing trends in Diabetes prevalence and its attributed burden emphasized as an important issue that needs serious and urgent attention, all over the word. We estimated the mean ...Fasting Plasma Glucose (FPG) and the prevalence of Diabetes in aged 25 years or older Iranian adults, by sex, age, province, and year through the time period of 1990 to 2016.
Methods
In order to access the most comprehensive relevant data at the same time the systematic data searched added to the data of 5 national surveys and 7 sub-national population based investigations. Two round of modeling, including the Age-Spatio-Temporal and Gaussian Process Regression were used for estimation of mean FPG trend and uncertainties. To estimate Diabetes estimations in target groups, a crosswalk model was applies to the FPG estimates. The model reiterated separately for women and men. All of estimations standardized based on the Iran national census population of 2016 by year, age groups and sexes at national and sub-national levels.
Results
In 2016, the number of the diabetic population was 4.43 (3.93–4.99) million (2.38 million women). Between 1990 and 2016, the age-standardized mean of FPG increased from 84.69 mg/dl (79.8–89.8) to 100.5 mg/dl (97.9–103.3) in women and from 82.7 mg/dl (78.3–87.5) to 98.8 mg/dl (96.2–101.4) in men. Simultaneously, with considerable difference, the Diabetes prevalence, has increased from 6.1% (4.7–7.8) to 9.8% (8.7–11.1) in women and from 5.0% 18 (3.8–6.3) to 8.1% (7.2–9.2) in men (75% attributed to population growth). Considering the geographical patterns, the greatest increment in the prevalence of Diabetes detected in the northwestern and the central provinces.
Conclusion
Significant increasing trends of Diabetes led to alarming threat, which can make the strategies and goals of our prevention programs out of control. We should plan for more effective communicative interventions for prevention and management of Diabetes, to be designed, implemented and monitored based on the updated scientific evidence.
During the past three decades, neonate, infant, and child mortality declined in North Africa and Middle East. However, there is substantial heterogeneity in mortality rates across countries.
This ...study is part of the Global Burden of Diseases study (GBD) 2019. We report the number as well as mortality rates for neonates, infants, and children by cause across 21 countries in the region since 1990.
Between 1990 and 2019, the neonate mortality rate in the region declined from 31.9 (29.8, 34.0) to 12.2 (11.1, 13.3) per 1000 live births. Respective figures for under 5 mortality rates (U5MRs) were 79.1 (75.7, 82.7) in 1990 and 24.4 (22.3, 26.7) per 1000 live births in 2019. The majority of deaths among children under 5 years were due to under 1 year deaths: 75.9% in 1990 and 81.8% in 2019. Mortality rates in males were higher than females. The mortality rate among neonates ranged from 2.4 (2.1, 2.6) per 1000 live births in Bahrain to 25.0 (21.6, 28.4) in Afghanistan in 2019. Similarly, in 2019, the U5MR ranged from 5.0 (4.2-6.0) per 1000 live births in United Arab Emirates to 55.3 (47.9-63.5) in Afghanistan. Neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and lower respiratory infections were the three main causes of neonate, infant, and child mortality in almost all countries in the region.
In 2019, most countries in this region have achieved the SDG targets for neonate and child mortality. However, there is still substantial heterogeneity across countries.
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