The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused major disruptions to many aspects of life in Australia and globally. This includes actual and potential future impacts on Australia's three ...national screening programs for breast, bowel and cervical cancer. These programs aim to improve cancer outcomes through an organised approach to the early detection of cancer and precancer in asymptomatic populations. The design of each program varies according to biological differences in the three cancers, the available screening technology, the target population, and variations in their administration of Australia's federal, state and territory jurisdictions. The observed and potential impacts of COVID-19 on these programs, and on related activities such as the current national enquiry into lung cancer screening feasibility, therefore vary significantly. This article focuses on observed short-term impacts, adaptations and the longer-term outlook for cancer screening in relation to COVID-19. It summarises potential responses to minimise the harms of disruptions caused by COVID-19, and highlights research and policy opportunities in the pandemic response and recovery which could inform and accelerate optimisation of cancer screening in the long term.
COVID-19 disrupted cancer control worldwide, impacting preventative screening, diagnoses, and treatment services. This modelling study estimates the impact of disruptions on colorectal cancer cases ...and deaths in Canada and Australia, informed by data on screening, diagnosis, and treatment procedures. Modelling was used to estimate short- and long-term effects on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality, including ongoing impact of patient backlogs. A hypothetical mitigation strategy was simulated, with diagnostic and treatment capacities increased by 5% from 2022 to address backlogs. Colorectal cancer screening dropped by 40% in Canada and 6.3% in Australia in 2020. Significant decreases to diagnostic and treatment procedures were also observed in Australia and Canada, which were estimated to lead to additional patient wait times. These changes would lead to an estimated increase of 255 colorectal cancer cases and 1,820 colorectal cancer deaths in Canada and 234 cases and 1,186 deaths in Australia over 2020-2030; a 1.9% and 2.4% increase in mortality, respectively, vs a scenario with no screening disruption or diagnostic/treatment delays. Diagnostic and treatment capacity mitigation would avert 789 and 350 deaths in Canada and Australia, respectively. COVID-related disruptions had a significant impact on colorectal cancer screening, diagnostic, and treatment procedures in Canada and Australia. Modelling demonstrates that downstream effects on disease burden could be substantial. However, backlogs can be managed and deaths averted with even small increases to diagnostic and treatment capacity. Careful management of resources can improve patient outcomes after any temporary disruption, and these results can inform targeted approaches early detection of cancers.
The Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) provides biennial immunochemical faecal occult blood test (iFOBT) screening for people aged 50-74 years. Previous work has quantified ...the number of colorectal cancer (CRC) deaths prevented by the NBCSP and has shown that it is cost-effective. With a 40% screening participation rate, the NBCSP is currently underutilised and could be improved by increasing program participation, but the maximum appropriate level of spending on effective interventions to increase adherence has not yet been quantified.
To estimate (i) reductions in CRC cases and deaths for 2020-2040 attributable to, and (ii) the threshold for cost-effective investment (TCEI) in, effective future interventions to improve participation in the NBCSP.
A comprehensive microsimulation model, Policy1-Bowel, was used to simulate CRC natural history and screening in Australia, considering currently reported NBCSP adherence rates, i.e. iFOBT participation (∼40%) and diagnostic colonoscopy assessment rates (∼70%). Australian residents aged 40-74 were modelled. We evaluated three scenarios: (1) diagnostic colonoscopy assessment increasing to 90%; (2) iFOBT screening participation increasing to 60% by 2020, 70% by 2030 with diagnostic assessment rates of 90%; and (3) iFOBT screening increasing to 90% by 2020 with diagnostic assessment rates of 90%. In each scenario, we estimated CRC incidence and mortality, colonoscopies, costs, and TCEI given indicative willingness-to-pay thresholds of AUD$10,000-$30,000/LYS.
By 2040, age-standardised CRC incidence and mortality rates could be reduced from 46.2 and 13.5 per 100,000 persons, respectively, if current participation rates continued, to (1) 44.0 and 12.7, (2) 36.8 and 8.8, and (3) 31.9 and 6.5. In Scenario 2, 23,000 lives would be saved from 2020-2040 vs current participation rates. The estimated scenario-specific TCEI (Australian dollars or AUD$/year) to invest in interventions to increase participation, given a conservative willingness-to-pay threshold of AUD$10,000/LYS, was (1) AUD$14.9M, (2) AUD$72.0M, and (3) AUD$76.5M.
Significant investment in evidence-based interventions could be used to improve NBCSP adherence and help realise the program's potential. Such interventions might include mass media campaigns to increase program participation, educational or awareness interventions for practitioners, and/or interventions resulting in improvements in referral pathways. Any set of interventions which achieves at least 70% iFOBT screening participation and a 90% diagnostic assessment rate while costing under AUD$72 million annually would be highly cost-effective (<AUD$10,000/LYS) and save 23,000 additional lives from 2020-2040.
Colorectal cancer (CRC) care costs the Australian healthcare system more than any other cancer. We estimated costs and days in hospital for CRC cases, stratified by site (colon/rectal cancer) and ...disease stage, to inform detailed analyses of CRC-related healthcare.
Incident CRC patients were identified using the Australian 45 and Up Study cohort linked with cancer registry records. We analysed linked hospital admission records, emergency department records, and reimbursement records for government-subsidised medical services and prescription medicines. Cases' health system costs (2020 Australian dollars) and hospital days were compared with those for cancer-free controls (matched by age, sex, geography, smoking) to estimate excess resources by phase of care, analysed by sociodemographic, health, and disease characteristics.
1200 colon and 546 rectal cancer cases were diagnosed 2006-2013, and followed up to June 2016. Eighty-nine percent of cases had surgery, chemotherapy or radiotherapy, and excess costs were predominantly for hospitalisations. Initial phase (12 months post-diagnosis) mean excess health system costs were $50,434 for colon and $60,877 for rectal cancer cases, with means of 16 and 18.5 excess hospital days, respectively. The annual continuing mean excess costs were $6,779 (colon) and $8,336 (rectal), with a mean of 2 excess hospital days each. Resources utilised (costs and days) in these phases increased with more advanced disease, comorbidities, and younger age. Mean excess costs in the year before death were $74,952 (colon) and $67,733 (rectal), with means of 34 and 30 excess hospital days, respectively-resources utilised were similar across all characteristics, apart from lower costs for cases aged ≥75 at diagnosis.
Health system costs and hospital utilisation for CRC care are greater for people with more advanced disease. These findings provide a benchmark, and will help inform future cost-effectiveness analyses of potential approaches to CRC screening and treatment.
Previously published sub-site Australian projections for colon and rectal cancers to 2035 using the World Health Organization's mortality database sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics ...(ABS) predicted mortality rate decreases for colon cancer and increases for rectal cancer. There are complexities related to the interpretation of ABS's Australian colon and rectal cancer mortality rates, which could lead to possible inaccuracies in mortality rates for these sub-sites. The largest Australian population-wide registry, New South Wales Cancer Registry (NSWCR), compares routinely-reported causes of death with the recorded medical history from multiple data sources. Therefore, this study used the NSWCR data to project mortality rates for colon and rectal cancers separately to 2040 in Australia. The mortality rates for colon cancer are projected to continuously decline over the period 2015-2040, from 7.0 to 4.7 per 100,000 males, and from 5.3 to 3.2 per 100,000 females. Similar decreasing trends in mortality rates for rectal cancer were projected over the period 2015-2040, from 4.9 to 3.7 per 100,000 males, and from 2.6 to 2.3 per 100,000 females. These projections provide benchmark estimates for the colorectal cancer burden in Australia against which the effectiveness of cancer control interventions can be measured.
This field study evaluated a multiwave media campaign that aired in 2019 to promote participation in the Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP), which provides free biennial ...mailed-out immunochemical faecal occult blood test (iFOBT) kits to Australians aged 50-74 years.
Adjusted negative binomial regression models determined rate ratios of iFOBT kits returned during and following three campaign waves compared with 2018 (baseline). Interaction terms determined whether effects differed by gender×age group, socioeconomic status (SES) and previous participation.
Australia.
All Australians eligible for the NBCSP (men and women aged 50-74 years) who returned an iFOBT kit between 1 January 2018 and 30 October 2019.
A multiwave national integrated media campaign to promote participation in the NBCSP.
iFOBT kit return rate and number of iFOBT kits returned during and immediately following campaign activity overall and within historically lower screening groups (men, 50-59 years old; lower SES; never participants).
The rate of iFOBT kits returned increased significantly during all three campaign waves, with evidence of carry-over effects of the second wave coinciding with a general practitioner mail-out strategy (all p<0.001). At each wave, effects were observed among men and women in the younger (50-59 years old) age group, but were less consistent for the older age group. Each SES group and both never and previous participants had increased return rates at each wave, but increases were stronger among mid-higher SES and those who had never participated. An estimated 93 075 extra iFOBT kits were returned due to the campaign.
The campaign increased participation, especially among those who were younger and never previously screened-key groups to recruit given reparticipation rates of over 80%. Ongoing investment in national integrated media campaigns of sufficient duration and intensity can increase bowel cancer screening and ultimately save lives.
A historical cohort study in workers occupationally exposed to chrysotile was set up in the town of Asbest, the Russian Federation, to study their cause-specific mortality, with a focus on cancer. ...Chrysotile has different chemical and physical properties compared with other asbestos fibres; therefore it is important to conduct studies specifically of chrysotile and in different geographical regions to improve the knowledge about its carcinogenicity. Setting was the town of Asbest, Sverdlovsk oblast, the Russian Federation. Participants were all current and former employees with at least one year of employment between 1/1/1975 and 31/12/2010 in the mine, enrichment factories, auto-transport and external rail transportation departments, the central laboratory, and the explosives unit of the company. Of the 35,837 cohort members, 12,729 (35.5%) had died (2,373 of them of cancer, including 10 of mesothelioma), 18,799 (52.5%) were known to be alive at the end of the observation period (2015), and 4,309 (12.0%) were censored before the end of 2015. Mean follow-up duration was 21.7 years in men and 25.9 years in women. The mean age at death was 59.4 years in men and 66.5 years in women. This is the largest occupational cohort of chrysotile workers to date, and the only one with a large proportion of exposed female workers.
Colorectal cancer is the third most diagnosed cancer globally and the second leading cause of cancer death. We examined colon and rectal cancer treatment patterns in Australia.
From cancer registry ...records, we identified 1,236 and 542 people with incident colon and rectal cancer, respectively, diagnosed during 2006-2013 in the 45 and Up Study cohort (267,357 participants). Cancer treatment and deaths were determined via linkage to routinely collected data, including hospital and medical services records. For colon cancer, we examined treatment categories of "surgery only", "surgery plus chemotherapy", "other treatment" (i.e. other combinations of surgery/chemotherapy/radiotherapy), "no record of cancer-related treatment, died"; and, for rectal cancer, "surgery only", "surgery plus chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy", "other treatment", and "no record of cancer-related treatment, died". We analysed survival, time to first treatment, and characteristics associated with treatment receipt using competing risks regression.
86.4% and 86.5% of people with colon and rectal cancer, respectively, had a record of receiving any treatment ≤2 years post-diagnosis. Of those treated, 93.2% and 90.8% started treatment ≤2 months post-diagnosis, respectively. Characteristics significantly associated with treatment receipt were similar for colon and rectal cancer, with strongest associations for spread of disease and age at diagnosis (p<0.003). For colon cancer, the rate of "no record of cancer-related treatment, died" was higher for people with distant spread of disease (versus localised, subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR)=13.6, 95% confidence interval (CI):5.5-33.9), age ≥75 years (versus age 45-74, SHR=3.6, 95%CI:1.8-7.1), and visiting an emergency department ≤1 month pre-diagnosis (SHR=2.9, 95%CI:1.6-5.2). For rectal cancer, the rate of "surgery plus chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy" was higher for people with regional spread of disease (versus localised, SHR=5.2, 95%CI:3.6-7.7) and lower for people with poorer physical functioning (SHR=0.5, 95%CI:0.3-0.8) or no private health insurance (SHR=0.7, 95%CI:0.5-0.9).
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, most people with colon or rectal cancer received treatment ≤2 months post-diagnosis, however, treatment patterns varied by spread of disease and age. This work can be used to inform future healthcare requirements, to estimate the impact of cancer control interventions to improve prevention and early diagnosis, and serve as a benchmark to assess treatment delays/disruptions during the pandemic. Future work should examine associations with clinical factors (e.g. performance status at diagnosis) and interdependencies between characteristics such as age, comorbidities, and emergency department visits.
There are three government-funded population-based screening programs in Australia - the national breast cancer screening program (BreastScreen Australia), the National Cervical Screening Program ...(NCSP), and the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP). Options for early detection of other cancers (e.g. hepatocellular carcinoma and melanoma) are under investigation. This study provides an overview of the health benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness of population-level breast, cervical and colorectal cancer screening, targeted-risk screening for lung cancer and Lynch syndrome, and prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing in Australia.
The study reviewed and, where possible, updated the estimated health benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness of screening approaches from modelling studies for four cancer types, PSA testing and Lynch syndrome testing in Australia. Costs are presented in 2018 Australian dollars.
The renewed NCSP (for women not HPV-vaccinated) and the NBCSP were estimated to be cost-effective versus no screening; the cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) was $16 632 per life-year saved (LYS) for the NCSP, and $3380/LYS for the NBCSP. BreastScreen Australia was predicted to have a CER of $40 279/LYS-$65 065/LYS. In 2017, the NCSP transitioned to 5-yearly primary HPV testing with partial genotyping for HPV types 16 and 18 for women aged 25-74 years. Alongside vaccination, this change is predicted to prevent a further 587 cervical cancer deaths in 2018-2035, and have a favourable benefit-to-harm balance versus prior practice (biennial cytology testing for women aged 18-69 years). On average, the NBCSP (biennial screening using an immunochemical faecal occult blood test for people aged 50-74 years) is estimated to prevent 2519 colorectal cancer deaths and result in 350 colonoscopy-related adverse events annually. The inaccuracy of PSA testing as a screening tool impedes the capacity to conduct meaningful cost-effectiveness analyses at a population level, based on current evidence. Three annual low-dose computed tomography screens for lung cancer using the US National Lung Screening Trial selection criteria would not be cost-effective in Australia. A comprehensive cost-effectiveness evaluation of systematic proband testing, cascade testing and subsequent surveillance for Lynch syndrome in Australia is currently underway.
Current evidence supports a favourable cost-effectiveness and benefit-to-harm balance for the NCSP and NBCSP. An updated cost-effectiveness and benefits-to-harms analysis for BreastScreen Australia is required. Carefully founded quantitative estimates of health benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness provide an important aid to policy decision making, and form the basis for developing decision aids to guide individual screening decisions. Opportunities exist for lung cancer screening, systematic Lynch syndrome testing and informed decision making about PSA testing. However, more evidence is required on risk assessment, targeting of screening tests, optimal referral pathways, managing potential harms and delivering services in a cost-effective framework.
A previous Australian study compared the observed numbers of cancer cases and deaths in 2007 with the expected numbers based on 1987 rates. This study examines the impact of cancer rate changes over ...the 20-year period 1996-2015, for people aged under 75 years.
The overall age-standardised cancer incidence rate increased from 350.7 in 1995 to 364.4 per 100,000 in 2015. Over the period 1996-2015, there were 29,226 (2.0%) more cases (males: 5940, 0.7%; females: 23,286, 3.7%) than expected numbers based on 1995 rates. Smaller numbers of cases were observed compared to those expected for cancers of the lung for males and colorectum, and cancers with unknown primary. Larger numbers of cases were observed compared to those expected for cancers of the prostate, thyroid and female breast. The overall age-standardised cancer mortality rate decreased from 125.6 in 1995 to 84.3 per 100,000 in 2015. During 1996 to 2015 there were 106,903 (- 20.6%) fewer cancer deaths (males: - 69,007, - 22.6%; females: - 37,896, - 17.9%) than expected based on the 1995 mortality rates. Smaller numbers of deaths were observed compared to those expected for cancers of the lung, colorectum and female breast, and more cancer deaths were observed for liver cancer.
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