Disease surveillance systems provide a rich source of data regarding infectious diseases, aggregated across geographical regions. The analysis of such ecological data is fraught with difficulties, ...and, unless care and suitable data summaries are available, will lead to biased estimates of individual‐level parameters. We consider using surveillance data to study the impacts of vaccination. To catalog the problems of ecological inference, we start with an individual‐level model, which contains familiar parameters, and derive an ecologically consistent model for infectious diseases in partially vaccinated populations. We compare with other popular model classes and highlight deficiencies. We explore the properties of the new model through simulation and demonstrate that, under standard assumptions, the ecological model provides less biased estimates. We then fit the new model to data collected on measles outbreaks in Germany from 2005‐2007.
This population epidemiology study characterizes trends in polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test positivity for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Washington State and the ...Seattle area between March 1 and April 16, 2020, before and after statewide physical distancing guidelines and stay-at-home orders.
People infected with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) experience a wide range of clinical manifestations, from asymptomatic and mild illness to severe illness and death, ...influenced by age and a variety of comorbidities. Neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) are thought to be a primary immune defense against the virus. Large, diverse, well-characterized cohorts of convalescent individuals provide standardized values to benchmark nAb responses to past SARS-CoV-2 infection and define potentially protective levels of immunity.
This analysis comprises an observational cohort of 329 HIV-seronegative adults in the United States (n = 167) and Peru (n = 162) convalescing from SARS-CoV-2 infection from May through October 2020. The mean age was 48 years (range 18 to 86), 54% of the cohort overall was Hispanic, and 34% identified as White. nAb titers were measured in serum by SARS-CoV-2.D614G Spike-pseudotyped virus infection of 293T/ACE2 cells. Multiple linear regression was applied to define associations between nAb titers and demographic variables, disease severity and time from infection or disease onset, and comorbidities within and across US and Peruvian cohorts over time. nAb titers peaked 28 to 42 days post-diagnosis and were higher in participants with a history of severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (p < 0.001). Diabetes, age >55 years, male sex assigned at birth, and, in some cases, body mass index were also independently associated with higher nAb titers, whereas hypertension was independently associated with lower nAb titers. nAb titers did not differ by race, underlying pulmonary disease or smoking. Two months post-enrollment, nAb ID50 (ID80) titers declined 3.5 (2.8)-fold overall. Study limitations in this observational, convalescent cohort include survivorship bias and missing early viral loads and acute immune responses to correlate with the convalescent responses we observed.
In summary, in our cohort, nAb titers after SARS-CoV-2 infection peaked approximately 1 month post-diagnosis and varied by age, sex assigned at birth, disease severity, and underlying comorbidities. Our data show great heterogeneity in nAb responses among people with recent COVID-19, highlighting the challenges of interpreting natural history studies and gauging responses to vaccines and therapeutics among people with recent infection. Our observations illuminate potential correlations of demographic and clinical characteristics with nAb responses, a key element for protection from COVID-19, thus informing development and implementation of preventative and therapeutic strategies globally.
ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04403880.
Antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) has been correlated with reduced risk of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection in several preclinical vaccine trials and in the RV144 ...clinical trial, indicating that this is a relevant antibody function to study. Given the diversity of HIV-1, the breadth of vaccine-induced antibody responses is a critical parameter to understand if a universal vaccine is to be realized. Moreover, the breadth of ADCC responses can be influenced by different vaccine strategies and regimens, including adjuvants. Therefore, to accurately evaluate ADCC and to compare vaccine regimens, it is important to understand the range of HIV Envelope (Env) susceptibility to these responses. These evaluations have been limited because of the complexity of the assay and the lack of a comprehensive panel of viruses for the assessment of these humoral responses. Here, we used 29 HIV-1 infectious molecular clones (IMCs) representing different Envelope subtypes and circulating recombinant forms to characterize susceptibility to ADCC from antibodies in plasma from infected individuals, including 13 viremic individuals, 10 controllers, and six with broadly neutralizing antibody responses. We found in our panel that ADCC susceptibility of the IMCs in our panel did not cluster by subtype, infectivity, level of CD4 downregulation, level of shedding, or neutralization sensitivity. Using partitioning around medoids (PAM) clustering to distinguish smaller groups of IMCs with similar ADCC susceptibility, we identified nested panels of four to eight IMCs that broadly represent the ADCC susceptibility of the entire 29-IMC panel. These panels, together with reagents developed to specifically accommodate circulating viruses at the geographical sites of vaccine trials, will provide a powerful tool to harmonize ADCC data generated across different studies and to detect common themes of ADCC responses elicited by various vaccines.
Antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) responses were found to correlate with reduced risk of infection in the RV144 trial of the only human HIV-1 vaccine to show any efficacy to date. However, reagents to understand the breadth and magnitude of these responses across preclinical and clinical vaccine trials remain underdeveloped. In this study, we characterize HIV-1 infectious molecular clones encoding 29 distinct Envelope strains (Env-IMCs) to understand factors that impact virus susceptibility to ADCC and use statistical methods to identify smaller nested panels of four to eight Env-IMCs that accurately represent the full set. These reagents can be used as standardized reagents across studies to fully understand how ADCC may affect efficacy of future vaccine studies and how studies differ in the breadth of responses developed.
The secondary analyses for correlates of risk of infection in the RV144 HIV-1 vaccine trial implicated vaccine-induced antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) responses in the observed ...protection, highlighting the importance of assessing such responses in ongoing and future HIV-1 vaccine trials. However,
assays that detect ADCC activity in plasma from HIV-1 infected seropositive individuals are not always effective at detecting ADCC activity in plasma from HIV-1 vaccine recipients.
, ADCC-mediating antibodies must operate at the site of infection, where effector cells are recruited and activated by a local milieu of chemokines and cytokines. Based on previous findings that interleukin 15 (IL-15) secretion increases during acute HIV-1 infection and enhances NK cell-mediated cytotoxicity, we hypothesized that IL-15 pretreatment of NK effector cells could be used to improve killing of infected cells by vaccine-induced antibodies capable of mediating ADCC. Using the HIV-1 infectious molecular clone (IMC)-infected target cell assay along with plasma samples from HIV-1 vaccine recipients, we found that IL-15 treatment of effector cells improved the ability of the vaccine-induced antibodies to recruit effector cells for ADCC. Through immunophenotyping experiments, we showed that this improved killing was likely due to IL-15 mediated activation of NK effector cells and higher intracellular levels of perforin and granzyme B in the IL-15 pretreated NK cells. We also found that using a 4-fold dilution series of plasma and subtraction of pre-vaccination responses resulted in lowest response rates among placebo recipients and significant separation between treatment groups. This represents the first attempt to utilize IL-15-treated effector cells and optimized analytical approaches to improve the detection of HIV-1 vaccine-induced ADCC responses and will inform analyses of future HIV vaccine clinical trials.
The RV144 HIV-vaccine trial highlighted the importance of envelope-specific non-neutralizing antibody (nNAb) Fc-mediated functions as immune correlates of reduced risk of infection. Since ...pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and HIV-vaccines are being used as a combination prevention strategy in at risk populations, the effects of PrEP on nNAb functions both mucosally and systemically remain undefined. Previous animal and human studies demonstrated reduced HIV-specific antibody binding avidity post-HIV seroconversion with PrEP, which in turn may affect antibody functionality. In seroconverters from the CAPRISA 004 tenofovir gel trial, we previously reported significantly higher detection and titres of HIV-specific binding antibodies in the plasma and genital tract (GT) that distinguished the tenofovir from the placebo arm. We hypothesized that higher HIV-specific antibody titres and detection reflected corresponding increased antibody-dependent neutrophil-mediated phagocytosis (ADNP) and NK-cell-activated antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxic (ADCC) activities. HIV-specific V1V2-gp70, gp120, gp41, p66, and p24 antibodies in GT and plasma samples of 48 seroconverters from the CAPRISA 004 tenofovir gel trial were tested for ADCP and ADCC at 3, 6- and 12-months post-HIV-infection. GT gp41- and p24-specific ADNP were significantly higher in the tenofovir than the placebo arm at 6 and 12 months respectively (
< 0.05). Plasma gp120-, gp41-, and p66-specific ADNP, and GT gp41-specific ADCC increased significantly over time (
< 0.05) in the tenofovir arm. In the tenofovir arm only, significant inverse correlations were observed between gp120-specific ADCC and gp120-antibody titres (
= -0.54;
= 0.009), and gp41-specific ADNP and gp41-specific antibody titres at 6 months post-infection (
= -0.50;
= 0.015). In addition, in the tenofovir arm, gp41-specific ADCC showed significant direct correlations between the compartments (
= 0.53;
= 0.045). Certain HIV-specific nNAb activities not only dominate specific immunological compartments but can also exhibit diverse functions within the same compartment. Our previous findings of increased HIV specific antibody detection and titres in women who used tenofovir gel, and the limited differences in nNAb activities between the arms, suggest that prior PrEP did not modulate these nNAb functions post-HIV seroconversion. Together these data provide insight into envelope-specific-nNAb Fc-mediated functions at the site of exposure which may inform on ensuing immunity during combination HIV prevention strategies including PrEP and HIV vaccines.
Interactive literature has been around since the 1970s, but it is still a very young discipline. While a great deal has been written about interactive fiction and multiform literature over the years, ...there are so many different forms of hypertext fiction, narrative games, and interactive storytelling experiences that there are very few ground rules for making excellent experiences. Interactive literature is hard to define when there are so many different kinds of creative works that seek shelter from the rain under this umbrella term. Within the realm of interactive storytelling, there can be visual novels, story-heavy games, interactive poems, and multiform literature.Through my research, I wanted to scour works of the most scholarly authorities on interactive storytelling. I also wanted to understand the history of multiform literature, what barriers exist in its transcendence to mainstream media, and what might be done by the writers of today to hook more readers’ interest. From there, I sought to establish pillars of good storytelling for the interactive form. Once, I had a clearer idea of the most valuable literary craft elements to concentrate on when crafting multiform literature. While I looked into interactive fiction in particular, along the way, I realized that interactive creative non-fiction is a similar genre that has not been as widely explored. The Wildwood of Thought is a web-based work of interactive literature that explores the importance of practicing self-introspection to discover what you truly want out of life. It is a creative non-fiction novella exploring my life and long work history, going all the way back to illegally working as a child cleaning boats and how growing up in extreme poverty impacted all my future career decisions. This work of multiform literature strives to show the wide berth of different stories that can be told through interactive media.
Abstract
We report a 23% asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV-2) Omicron carriage rate in participants being enrolled into a clinical trial in South Africa, 15-fold ...higher than in trials before Omicron. We also found lower CD4 + T-cell counts in persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) strongly correlated with increased odds of being SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive.
Many diseases arise due to exposure to one of multiple possible pathogens. We consider the situation in which disease counts are available over time from a study region, along with a measure of ...clinical disease severity, for example, mild or severe. In addition, we suppose a subset of the cases are lab tested in order to determine the pathogen responsible for disease. In such a context, we focus interest on modeling the probabilities of disease incidence given pathogen type. The time course of these probabilities is of great interest as is the association with time-varying covariates such as meteorological variables. In this set up, a natural Bayesian approach would be based on imputation of the unsampled pathogen information using Markov Chain Monte Carlo but this is computationally challenging. We describe a practical approach to inference that is easy to implement. We use an empirical Bayes procedure in a first step to estimate summary statistics. We then treat these summary statistics as the observed data and develop a Bayesian generalized additive model. We analyze data on hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in China in which there are two pathogens of primary interest, enterovirus 71 (EV71) and Coxackie A16 (CA16). We find that both EV71 and CA16 are associated with temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, with reasonably similar functional forms for both pathogens. The important issue of confounding by time is modeled using a penalized B-spline model with a random effects representation. The level of smoothing is addressed by a careful choice of the prior on the tuning variance.
Abstract Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines reduce severe disease and mortality and may lessen transmission, measured by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral ...load (VL). Evaluating vaccine associations in VL at COVID-19 diagnosis in 4 phase 3 randomized, placebo-controlled vaccine trials, July 2020 to July 2021, VL reductions were 2.78 log10 copies/mL (95% confidence interval CI, 1.38–4.18; n = 60 placebo, 11 vaccine) and 2.12 log10 copies/mL (95% CI, 1.44–2.80; n = 594 placebo, 36 vaccine) for NVX-CoV2373 and mRNA-1273, respectively. Associations were not significant for AZD1222 (0.59 log10 copies/mL; 95% CI, −.19 to 1.36; n = 90 placebo, 78 vaccine) or Ad26.COV2.S (0.23 log10 copies/mL; 95% CI, −.01 to .47; n = 916 placebo, 424 vaccine). Thus, vaccines potentially decreased transmission when ancestral SARS-CoV-2 predominated. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT04470427, NCT04505722, NCT04516746, NCT04611802.
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