Tephra transport models try to predict atmospheric dispersion and sedimentation of tephra depending on meteorology, particle properties, and eruption characteristics, defined by eruption column ...height, mass eruption rate, and vertical distribution of mass. Models are used for different purposes, from operational forecast of volcanic ash clouds to hazard assessment of tephra dispersion and fallout. The size of the erupted particles, a key parameter controlling the dynamics of particle sedimentation in the atmosphere, varies within a wide range. Largest centimetric to millimetric particles fallout at proximal to medial distances from the volcano and sediment by gravitational settling. On the other extreme, smallest micrometric to sub-micrometric particles can be transported at continental or even at global scales and are affected by other deposition and aggregation mechanisms. Different scientific communities had traditionally modeled the dispersion of these two end members. Volcanologists developed families of models suitable for lapilli and coarse ash and aimed at computing fallout deposits and for hazard assessment. In contrast, meteorologists and atmospheric scientists have traditionally used other atmospheric transport models, dealing with finer particles, for tracking motion of volcanic ash clouds and, eventually, for computing airborne ash concentrations. During the last decade, the increasing demand for model accuracy and forecast reliability has pushed on two fronts. First, the original gap between these different families of models has been filled with the emergence of multi-scale and multi-purpose models. Second, new modeling strategies including, for example, ensemble and probabilistic forecast or model data assimilation are being investigated for future implementation in models and or modeling strategies. This paper reviews the evolution of tephra transport and dispersal models during the last two decades, presents the status and limitations of the current modeling strategies, and discusses some emergent perspectives expected to be implemented at operational level during the next few years. Improvements in both real-time forecasting and long-term hazard assessment are necessary to loss prevention programs on a local, regional, national and international level.
► Reviews the evolution of different families of TTDM during the last 20years. ► Discusses the current situation and limitations in operational forecast. ► Presents cutting-edge developments likely to be implemented in short.
Eruption source parameters (ESP) characterizing volcanic eruption plumes are crucial inputs for atmospheric tephra dispersal models, used for hazard assessment and risk mitigation. We present ...FPLUME-1.0, a steady-state 1-D (one-dimensional) cross-section-averaged eruption column model based on the buoyant plume theory (BPT). The model accounts for plume bending by wind, entrainment of ambient moisture, effects of water phase changes, particle fallout and re-entrainment, a new parameterization for the air entrainment coefficients and a model for wet aggregation of ash particles in the presence of liquid water or ice. In the occurrence of wet aggregation, the model predicts an effective grain size distribution depleted in fines with respect to that erupted at the vent. Given a wind profile, the model can be used to determine the column height from the eruption mass flow rate or vice versa. The ultimate goal is to improve ash cloud dispersal forecasts by better constraining the ESP (column height, eruption rate and vertical distribution of mass) and the effective particle grain size distribution resulting from eventual wet aggregation within the plume. As test cases we apply the model to the eruptive phase-B of the 4 April 1982 El Chichón volcano eruption (México) and the 6 May 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption phase (Iceland). The modular structure of the code facilitates the implementation in the future code versions of more quantitative ash aggregation parameterization as further observations and experiment data will be available for better constraining ash aggregation processes.
Volcanic activity occurring in tropical moist atmospheres can promote deep convection and trigger volcanic thunderstorms. These phenomena, however, are rarely observed to last continuously for more ...than a day and so insights into the dynamics, microphysics and electrification processes are limited. Here we present a multidisciplinary study on an extreme case, where volcanically-triggered deep convection lasted for six days. We show that this unprecedented event was caused and sustained by phreatomagmatic activity at Anak Krakatau volcano, Indonesia during 22-28 December 2018. Our modelling suggests an ice mass flow rate of ~5 × 10
kg/s for the initial explosive eruption associated with a flank collapse. Following the flank collapse, a deep convective cloud column formed over the volcano and acted as a 'volcanic freezer' containing ~3 × 10
kg of ice on average with maxima reaching ~10
kg. Our satellite analyses reveal that the convective anvil cloud, reaching 16-18 km above sea level, was ice-rich and ash-poor. Cloud-top temperatures hovered around -80 °C and ice particles produced in the anvil were notably small (effective radii ~20 µm). Our analyses indicate that vigorous updrafts (>50 m/s) and prodigious ice production explain the impressive number of lightning flashes (~100,000) recorded near the volcano from 22 to 28 December 2018. Our results, together with the unique dataset we have compiled, show that lightning flash rates were strongly correlated (R = 0.77) with satellite-derived plume heights for this event.
During April–May 2010 volcanic ash clouds from the Icelandic Eyjafjallajökull volcano reached Europe causing an unprecedented disruption of the EUR/NAT region airspace. Civil aviation authorities ...banned all flight operations because of the threat posed by volcanic ash to modern turbine aircraft. New quantitative airborne ash mass concentration thresholds, still under discussion, were adopted for discerning regions contaminated by ash. This has implications for ash dispersal models routinely used to forecast the evolution of ash clouds. In this new context, quantitative model validation and assessment of the accuracies of current state-of-the-art models is of paramount importance. The passage of volcanic ash clouds over central Europe, a territory hosting a dense network of meteorological and air quality observatories, generated a quantity of observations unusual for volcanic clouds. From the ground, the cloud was observed by aerosol lidars, lidar ceilometers, sun photometers, other remote-sensing instruments and in-situ collectors. From the air, sondes and multiple aircraft measurements also took extremely valuable in-situ and remote-sensing measurements. These measurements constitute an excellent database for model validation. Here we validate the FALL3D ash dispersal model by comparing model results with ground and airplane-based measurements obtained during the initial 14–23 April 2010 Eyjafjallajökull explosive phase. We run the model at high spatial resolution using as input hourly-averaged observed heights of the eruption column and the total grain size distribution reconstructed from field observations. Model results are then compared against remote ground-based and in-situ aircraft-based measurements, including lidar ceilometers from the German Meteorological Service, aerosol lidars and sun photometers from EARLINET and AERONET networks, and flight missions of the German DLR Falcon aircraft. We find good quantitative agreement, with an error similar to the spread in the observations (however depending on the method used to estimate mass eruption rate) for both airborne and ground mass concentration. Such verification results help us understand and constrain the accuracy and reliability of ash transport models and it is of enormous relevance for designing future operational mitigation strategies at Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers.
► We perform high-resolution numerical simulations of the Eyafjallajökull volcanic ash clouds. ► Source term is assessed hourly using different models and plume heights from radar. ► We perform quantitative model validations versus in situ and remote ground-based observations. ► Results are crucial for knowing volcanic ash dispersion model limitations.
FALL3D is a 3-D time-dependent Eulerian model for the transport and deposition of volcanic ashes and lapilli. The model solves the advection–diffusion–sedimentation (ADS) equation on a structured ...terrain-following grid using a second-order finite differences (FD) explicit scheme. Different parameterizations for the eddy diffusivity tensor and for the particle terminal settling velocities can be used. The code, written in FORTRAN 90, is available in both serial and parallel versions for Windows and Unix/Linux/Mac X operating systems (OS). A series of pre- and post-process utility programs and OS-dependent scripts to launch them are also included in the FALL3D distribution package. Although the model has been designed to forecast volcanic ash concentration in the atmosphere and ash loading at ground, it can also be used to model the transport of any kind of airborne solid particles. The model inputs are meteorological data, topography, grain-size distribution, shape and density of particles, and mass rate of particle injected into the atmosphere. Optionally, FALL3D can be coupled with the output of the meteorological processor CALMET, a diagnostic model which generates 3-D time-dependent zero-divergence wind fields from mesoscale forecasts incorporating local terrain effects. The FALL3D model can be a tool for short-term ash deposition forecasting and for volcanic fallout hazard assessment. As an example, an application to the 22 July 1998 Etna eruption is also presented.
Volcanic ash fallout represents a serious threat to people living near active volcanoes because it can produce several undesirable effects such as collapse of roofs by ash loading, respiratory ...sickness, air traffic disruption, or damage to agriculture. The assessment of such volcanic risk is therefore an issue of vital importance for public safety and its mitigation often requires to evaluate the temporal evolution of the phenomenon through reliable computational models.
We develop an Eulerian model, named FALL3D, for the transport and deposition of volcanic ashes. The model is based on the advection–diffusion–sedimentation equation with a turbulent diffusion given by the gradient transport theory, a wind field obtained from a meteorological limited area model (LAM) and the source term derived from by buoyant plume theory. It can be used to forecast either ash concentration in the atmosphere or ash loading on the ground. Model inputs are topography, meteorological data given by a LAM, mass eruption rate, and a particle settling velocity distribution. A test application to the July 2001 Etna eruption is presented.
We apply a novel computational approach to assess, for the first time, volcanic ash dispersal during the Campanian Ignimbrite (Italy) super‐eruption providing insights into eruption dynamics and the ...impact of this gigantic event. The method uses a 3D time‐dependent computational ash dispersion model, a set of wind fields, and more than 100 thickness measurements of the CI tephra deposit. Results reveal that the CI eruption dispersed 250–300 km3 of ash over ∼3.7 million km2. The injection of such a large quantity of ash (and volatiles) into the atmosphere would have caused a volcanic winter during the Heinrich Event 4, the coldest and driest climatic episode of the Last Glacial period. Fluorine‐bearing leachate from the volcanic ash and acid rain would have further affected food sources and severely impacted Late Middle‐Early Upper Paleolithic groups in Southern and Eastern Europe.
Key Points
A new methodology to calculate ash dispersal of a super‐eruption was presented
Ash dispersal of the Campanian Ignimbrite super‐eruption was fully reconstructed
The impact of the Campanian Ignimbrite ash fallout was quantified and discussed
During operational ash-cloud forecasting, prediction of ash concentration and total erupted mass directly depends on the determination of mass eruption rate (MER), which is typically inferred from ...plume height. Uncertainties for plume heights are large, especially for bent-over plumes in which the ascent dynamics are strongly affected by the surrounding wind field. Here we show how uncertainties can be reduced if MER is derived directly from geophysical observations of source dynamics. The combination of infrasound measurements and thermal camera imagery allows for the infrasonic type of source to be constrained (a dipole in this case) and for the plume exit velocity to be calculated (54–142m/s) based on the acoustic signal recorded during the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption from 4 to 21 May. Exit velocities are converted into MER using additional information on vent diameter (50±10m) and mixture density (5.4±1.1kg/m3), resulting in an average ∼9×105kg/s MER during the considered period of the eruption. We validate our acoustic-derived MER by using independent measurements of plume heights (Icelandic Meteorological Office radar observations). Acoustically derived MER are converted into plume heights using field-based relationships and a 1D radially averaged buoyant plume theory model using a reconstructed total grain size distribution. We conclude that the use of infrasonic monitoring may lead to important understanding of the plume dynamics and allows for real-time determination of eruption source parameters. This could improve substantially the forecasting of volcano-related hazards, with important implications for civil aviation safety.
► Acoustic source model is constrained by thermal camera to calculate plume exit velocity. ► Plume column was sustained by repeating impulses every 20s of ash driven puffs. ► Empirical correlations between plume height and MER cannot be applied to weak plumes. ► MER is related to the plume height only if meteorological conditions are accounted for. ► We propose an alternative strategy to constrain MER and plume height in real-time.
Ash emitted during explosive volcanic eruptions may disperse over vast areas of the globe posing a threat to human health and infrastructures and causing significant disruption to air traffic. In ...Antarctica, at least five volcanoes have reported historic activity. However, no attention has been paid to the potential socio-economic and environmental consequences of an ash-forming eruption occurring at high southern latitudes. This work shows how ash from Antarctic volcanoes may pose a higher threat than previously believed. As a case study, we evaluate the potential impacts of ash for a given eruption scenario from Deception Island, one of the most active volcanoes in Antarctica. Numerical simulations using the novel MMB-MONARCH-ASH model demonstrate that volcanic ash emitted from Antarctic volcanoes could potentially encircle the globe, leading to significant consequences for global aviation safety. Results obtained recall the need for performing proper hazard assessment on Antarctic volcanoes, and are crucial for understanding the patterns of ash distribution at high southern latitudes with strong implications for tephrostratigraphy, which is pivotal to synchronize palaeoclimatic records.
The occurrence of particle aggregation has a dramatic effect on the transport and sedimentation of volcanic ash. The aggregation process is complex and can occur under different conditions and in ...multiple regions of the plume and in the ash cloud. In the companion paper, Costa et al. develop an aggregation model based on a fractal relationship to describe the rate particles are incorporated into ash aggregates. The model includes the effects of both magmatic and atmospheric water present in the volcanic cloud and demonstrates that the rate of aggregation depends on the characteristics of the initial particle size distribution. The aggregation model includes two parameters, the fractal exponent Df, which describes the efficiency of the aggregation process, and the aggregate settling velocity correction factor ψe, which influences the distance at which distal mass deposition maxima form. Both parameters are adjusted using features of the observed deposits. Here this aggregation model is implemented in the FALL3D volcanic ash transport model and applied to the 18 May 1980 Mount St. Helens and the 17–18 September 1992 Crater Peak eruptions. For both eruptions, the optimized values for Df (2.96–3.00) and ψe (0.27–0.33) indicate that the ash aggregates had a bulk density of 700–800 kg m−3. The model provides a higher degree of agreement than previous fully empirical aggregation models and successfully reproduces the depositional characteristics of the deposits investigated over a large range of scales, including the position and thickness of the secondary maxima.
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