Aspects of operational modeling for climate, weather, and space weather forecasts are contrasted, with a particular focus on the somewhat conflicting demands of “operational stability” versus ...“dynamic development” of the involved models. Some common key elements are identified, indicating potential for fruitful exchange across communities. Operational model development is compelling, driven by factors that broadly fall into four categories: model skill, basic physics, advances in computer architecture, and new aspects to be covered, from costumer needs over physics to observational data. Evaluation of model skill as part of the operational chain goes beyond an automated skill score. Permanent interaction between “pure research” and “operational forecast” people is beneficial to both sides. This includes joint model development projects, although ultimate responsibility for the operational code remains with the forecast provider. The pace of model development reflects operational lead times. The points are illustrated with selected examples, many of which reflect the author’s background and personal contacts, notably with the Swiss Weather Service and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany. In view of current and future challenges, large collaborations covering a range of expertise are a must − within and across climate, weather, and space weather. To profit from and cope with the rapid progress of computer architectures, supercompute centers must form part of the team.
Virtually all metrics of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity show substantial increases over the past two decades. It is argued here that cooling near the tropical tropopause and the associated ...decrease in tropical cyclone outflow temperature contributed to the observed increase in tropical cyclone potential intensity over this period. Quantitative uncertainties in the magnitude of the cooling are important, but a broad range of observations supports some cooling. Downscalings of the output of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) that are driven by observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover produce little if any increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone metrics over the past two decades, even though observed variability before roughly 1970 is well simulated by some of the models. Part of this shortcoming is traced to the failure of the AGCMs examined to reproduce the observed cooling of the lower stratosphere and tropical tropopause layer (TTL) over the past few decades. The authors caution against using sea surface temperature or proxies based on it to make projections of tropical cyclone activity as there can be significant contributions from other variables such as the outflow temperature. The proposed mechanisms of TTL cooling (e.g., ozone depletion and stratospheric circulation changes) are reviewed, and the need for improved representations of these processes in global models in order to improve projections of future tropical cyclone activity is emphasized.
The energy budgets over land and oceans are still afflicted with considerable uncertainties, despite their key importance for terrestrial and maritime climates. We evaluate these budgets as ...represented in 43 CMIP5 climate models with direct observations from both surface and space and identify substantial biases, particularly in the surface fluxes of downward solar and thermal radiation. These flux biases in the various models are then linearly related to their respective land and ocean means to infer best estimates for present day downward solar and thermal radiation over land and oceans. Over land, where most direct observations are available to constrain the surface fluxes, we obtain 184 and 306 Wm
−2
for solar and thermal downward radiation, respectively. Over oceans, with weaker observational constraints, corresponding estimates are around 185 and 356 Wm
−2
. Considering additionally surface albedo and emissivity, we infer a surface absorbed solar and net thermal radiation of 136 and −66 Wm
−2
over land, and 170 and −53 Wm
−2
over oceans, respectively. The surface net radiation is thus estimated at 70 Wm
−2
over land and 117 Wm
−2
over oceans, which may impose additional constraints on the poorly known sensible/latent heat flux magnitudes, estimated here near 32/38 Wm
−2
over land, and 16/100 Wm
−2
over oceans. Estimated uncertainties are on the order of 10 and 5 Wm
−2
for most surface and TOA fluxes, respectively. By combining these surface budgets with satellite-determined TOA budgets we quantify the atmospheric energy budgets as residuals (including ocean to land transports), and revisit the global mean energy balance.
THE ART AND SCIENCE OF CLIMATE MODEL TUNING Hourdin, Frédéric; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Gettelman, Andrew ...
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
03/2017, Letnik:
98, Številka:
3
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
The process of parameter estimation targeting a chosen set of observations is an essential aspect of numerical modeling. This process is usually named tuning in the climate modeling community. In ...climate models, the variety and complexity of physical processes involved, and their interplay through a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, must be summarized in a series of approximate submodels. Most submodels depend on uncertain parameters. Tuning consists of adjusting the values of these parameters to bring the solution as a whole into line with aspects of the observed climate. Tuning is an essential aspect of climate modeling with its own scientific issues, which is probably not advertised enough outside the community of model developers. Optimization of climate models raises important questions about whether tuning methods a priori constrain the model results in unintended ways that would affect our confidence in climate projections. Here, we present the definition and rationale behind model tuning, review specific methodological aspects, and survey the diversity of tuning approaches used in current climate models. We also discuss the challenges and opportunities in applying so-called objective methods in climate model tuning. We discuss how tuning methodologies may affect fundamental results of climate models, such as climate sensitivity. The article concludes with a series of recommendations to make the process of climate model tuning more transparent.
The objective of the present work is to compare the projections of surface solar radiation (SSR) simulated by four regional climate models (CCLM, RCA4, WRF, ALADIN) with the respective fields of ...their ten driving CMIP5 global climate models. First the annual and seasonal SSR changes are examined in the regional and in the global climate models based on the RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The results show significant discrepancies between the projected SSR, the multi-model mean of RCMs indicates a decrease in SSR of −0.60 W/m
2
per decade over Europe, while the multi-model mean of the associated GCMs used to drive the RCMs gives an increase in SSR of +0.39 W/m
2
per decade for the period of 2006–2100 over Europe. At seasonal scale the largest differences appear in spring and summer. The different signs of SSR projected changes can be interpreted as the consequence of the different behavior of cloud cover in global and regional climate models. Cloudiness shows a significant decline in GCMs with −0.24% per decade which explains the extra income in SSR, while in case of the regional models no significant changes in cloudiness can be detected. The reduction of SSR in RCMs can be attributed to increasing atmospheric absorption in line with the increase of water vapor content. Both global and regional models overestimate SSR in absolute terms as compared to surface observations, in line with an underestimation of cloud cover. Regional models further have difficulties to adequately reproduce the observed trends in SSR over the past decades.
Collisionless magnetic reconnection is a prime candidate to account for flare-like or steady emission, outflow launching, or plasma heating, in a variety of high-energy astrophysical objects, ...including ones with relativistic ion-electron plasmas. But the fate of the initial magnetic energy in a reconnection event remains poorly known. What are the amounts assigned to kinetic energy, the ion and electron distribution, and the hardness of the particle distributions? We explored these questions with 2D particle-in-cell simulations of ion-electron plasmas. We find that 45 to 75% of the total initial magnetic energy ends up in kinetic energy, this fraction increasing with the inflow magnetization. Depending on the guide field strength, ions get from 30% to 60% of the total kinetic energy. Particles can be separated into two populations that mix only weakly: (i) particles initially in the current sheet heated by its initial tearing and subsequent contraction of the islands, and (ii) particles from the background plasma that primarily gain energy via the reconnection electric field when passing near the X-point. Particles of (ii) tend to form a power law with an index p = −dlog n(γ)/dlog γ that depends mostly on the inflow Alfvén speed VA and magnetization σs of species s. For electrons p = 5 to 1.2 for increasing σe. The highest particle Lorentz factor for ions or electrons increases roughly linearly with time for all the relativistic simulations. This is faster, and the spectra can be harder, than for collisionless shock acceleration. We discuss applications to microquasar and AGN coronae, to extragalactic jets, and to radio lobes. We point out situations where effects, such as Compton drag or pair creation, are important.
Abstract
Emissions pathways used in climate policy analysis are often derived from integrated assessment models. However, such emissions pathways do not typically include climate feedbacks on ...socioeconomic systems and by extension do not consider climate uncertainty in their construction. We use a well-known cost-benefit integrated assessment model, the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model, with its climate component replaced by the Finite-amplitude Impulse Response (FaIR) model (v2.1). The climate uncertainty in FaIR is sampled with an ensemble that is consistent with historically observed climate and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessed ranges of key climate variables such as equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). By varying discounting assumptions, three scenarios are produced: a pathway similar to the ‘optimal welfare’ scenario of DICE that has similar warming outcomes to current policies, and pathways that limit warming to ‘well-below’ 2
∘
C
and 1.5
∘
C
with a short-term overshoot, aiming to meet Paris Agreement long-term temperature goals. Climate uncertainty alone is responsible for a factor of five variation (5%–95% range) in the social cost of carbon (SCC) in the 1.5
∘
C
overshoot scenario, with the spread in SCC increasing in relative terms with increasing stringency of climate target. CO
2
emissions trajectories resulting from the optimal level of emissions abatement in all pathways are also sensitive to climate uncertainty, with 2050 emissions ranging from −12 to +14 GtCO
2
yr
−1
in the 1.5
∘
C
scenario. ECS and the strength of present-day aerosol effective radiative forcing are strong determinants of SCC and mid-century CO
2
emissions. This shows that narrowing climate uncertainty leads to more refined estimates for the social cost of carbon and provides more certainty about the optimal rate of emissions abatement. Including climate and climate uncertainty in integrated assessment model derived emissions scenarios would address a key missing feedback in scenario construction.
In recent studies we quantified the global mean Earth energy balance based on direct observations from surface and space. Here we infer complementary reference estimates for its components ...specifically under cloud-free conditions. While the clear-sky fluxes at the top of atmosphere (TOA) are accurately known from satellite measurements, the corresponding fluxes at the Earth’s surface are not equally well established, as they cannot be directly measured from space. This is also evident in 38 global climate models from CMIP5, which are shown to greatly vary in their clear-sky surface radiation budgets. To better constrain the latter, we established new clear-sky reference climatologies of surface downward shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes from worldwide distributed Baseline Surface Radiation Network sites. 33 out of the 38 CMIP5 models overestimate the clear-sky downward shortwave reference climatologies, whereas both substantial overestimations and underestimations are found in the longwave counterparts in some of the models. From the bias structure of the CMIP5 models we infer best estimates for the global mean surface downward clear-sky shortwave and longwave radiation, at 247 and 314 Wm
−2
, respectively. With a global mean surface albedo of 13.5% and net shortwave clear-sky flux of 287 Wm
−2
at the TOA this results in a global mean clear-sky surface and atmospheric shortwave absorption of 214 and 73 Wm
−2
, respectively. From the newly-established diagrams of the global energy balance under clear-sky and all-sky conditions, we quantify the cloud radiative effects not only at the TOA, but also within the atmosphere and at the surface.
Air pollution is the single most important environmental health risk, causing about 7 million premature deaths annually worldwide. China is the world's largest emitter of anthropogenic air ...pollutants, which causes major negative health consequences. The Chinese government has implemented several policies to reduce air pollution, with success in some but far from all sectors. In addition to the health benefits, reducing air pollution will have side-benefits, such as an increase in the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panels via an increase in surface solar irradiance through a reduction of haze and aerosol-impacted clouds. We use the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 with the bottom-up emissions inventory from the Community Emission Data System and quantify the geographically specific increases in generation and economic revenue to the Chinese solar photovoltaic fleet as a result of reducing or eliminating air pollution from the energy, industrial, transport, and residential and commercial sectors. We find that by 2040, the gains will be substantial: the projected solar photovoltaic fleet would produce between 85-158 TWh/year of additional power in clean compared to polluted air, generating US$6.9-10.1 billion of additional annual revenues in the solar photovoltaic sector alone. Furthermore, we quantify the cost of adopting best-practice emission standards in all sectors and find that the revenue gains from the increased solar photovoltaic generation could offset up to about 13-17% of the costs of strong air pollution control measures designed to reach near-zero emissions in all sectors. Hence, reducing air pollution in China will not only have clear health benefits, but the side-effect of increased solar power generation would also offset a sizeable share of the costs of air pollution control measures.
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