Global aviation operations contribute to anthropogenic climate change via a complex set of processes that lead to a net surface warming. Of importance are aviation emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), ...nitrogen oxides (NOx), water vapor, soot and sulfate aerosols, and increased cloudiness due to contrail formation. Aviation grew strongly over the past decades (1960–2018) in terms of activity, with revenue passenger kilometers increasing from 109 to 8269 billion km yr−1, and in terms of climate change impacts, with CO2 emissions increasing by a factor of 6.8 to 1034 Tg CO2 yr−1. Over the period 2013–2018, the growth rates in both terms show a marked increase. Here, we present a new comprehensive and quantitative approach for evaluating aviation climate forcing terms. Both radiative forcing (RF) and effective radiative forcing (ERF) terms and their sums are calculated for the years 2000–2018. Contrail cirrus, consisting of linear contrails and the cirrus cloudiness arising from them, yields the largest positive net (warming) ERF term followed by CO2 and NOx emissions. The formation and emission of sulfate aerosol yields a negative (cooling) term. The mean contrail cirrus ERF/RF ratio of 0.42 indicates that contrail cirrus is less effective in surface warming than other terms. For 2018 the net aviation ERF is +100.9 milliwatts (mW) m−2 (5–95% likelihood range of (55, 145)) with major contributions from contrail cirrus (57.4 mW m−2), CO2 (34.3 mW m−2), and NOx (17.5 mW m−2). Non-CO2 terms sum to yield a net positive (warming) ERF that accounts for more than half (66%) of the aviation net ERF in 2018. Using normalization to aviation fuel use, the contribution of global aviation in 2011 was calculated to be 3.5 (4.0, 3.4) % of the net anthropogenic ERF of 2290 (1130, 3330) mW m−2. Uncertainty distributions (5%, 95%) show that non-CO2 forcing terms contribute about 8 times more than CO2 to the uncertainty in the aviation net ERF in 2018. The best estimates of the ERFs from aviation aerosol-cloud interactions for soot and sulfate remain undetermined. CO2-warming-equivalent emissions based on global warming potentials (GWP* method) indicate that aviation emissions are currently warming the climate at approximately three times the rate of that associated with aviation CO2 emissions alone. CO2 and NOx aviation emissions and cloud effects remain a continued focus of anthropogenic climate change research and policy discussions.
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•Global aviation warms Earth's surface through both CO2 and net non-CO2 contributions.•Global aviation contributes a few percent to anthropogenic radiative forcing.•Non-CO2 impacts comprise about 2/3 of the net radiative forcing.•Comprehensive and quantitative calculations of aviation effects are presented.•Data are made available to analyze past, present and future aviation climate forcing.
ABSTRACT
Many scientific investigations of photometric galaxy surveys require redshift estimates, whose uncertainty properties are best encapsulated by photometric redshift (photo-z) posterior ...probability density functions (PDFs). A plethora of photo-z PDF estimation methodologies abound, producing discrepant results with no consensus on a preferred approach. We present the results of a comprehensive experiment comparing 12 photo-z algorithms applied to mock data produced for The Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time Dark Energy Science Collaboration. By supplying perfect prior information, in the form of the complete template library and a representative training set as inputs to each code, we demonstrate the impact of the assumptions underlying each technique on the output photo-z PDFs. In the absence of a notion of true, unbiased photo-z PDFs, we evaluate and interpret multiple metrics of the ensemble properties of the derived photo-z PDFs as well as traditional reductions to photo-z point estimates. We report systematic biases and overall over/underbreadth of the photo-z PDFs of many popular codes, which may indicate avenues for improvement in the algorithms or implementations. Furthermore, we raise attention to the limitations of established metrics for assessing photo-z PDF accuracy; though we identify the conditional density estimate loss as a promising metric of photo-z PDF performance in the case where true redshifts are available but true photo-z PDFs are not, we emphasize the need for science-specific performance metrics.
Gastroesophageal adenocarcinomas (GEAs) are heterogeneous cancers where immune checkpoint inhibitors have robust efficacy in heavily inflamed microsatellite instability (MSI) or Epstein-Barr virus ...(EBV)-positive subtypes. Immune checkpoint inhibitor responses are markedly lower in diffuse/genome stable (GS) and chromosomal instable (CIN) GEAs. In contrast to EBV and MSI subtypes, the tumor microenvironment of CIN and GS GEAs have not been fully characterized to date, which limits our ability to improve immunotherapeutic strategies.
Here we aimed to identify tumor-immune cell association across GEA subclasses using data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (N = 453 GEAs) and archival GEA resection specimen (N = 71). The Cancer Genome Atlas RNAseq data were used for computational inferences of immune cell subsets, which were correlated to tumor characteristics within and between subtypes. Archival tissues were used for more spatial immune characterization spanning immunohistochemistry and mRNA expression analyses.
Our results confirmed substantial heterogeneity in the tumor microenvironment between distinct subtypes. While MSI-high and EBV+ GEAs harbored most intense T cell infiltrates, the GS group showed enrichment of CD4+ T cells, macrophages and B cells and, in ∼50% of cases, evidence for tertiary lymphoid structures. In contrast, CIN cancers possessed CD8+ T cells predominantly at the invasive margin while tumor-associated macrophages showed tumor infiltrating capacity. Relatively T cell-rich ‘hot’ CIN GEAs were often from Western patients, while immunological ‘cold’ CIN GEAs showed enrichment of MYC and cell cycle pathways, including amplification of CCNE1.
These results reveal the diversity of immune phenotypes of GEA. Half of GS gastric cancers have tertiary lymphoid structures and are therefore promising candidates for immunotherapy. The majority of CIN GEAs, however, exhibit T cell exclusion and infiltrating macrophages. Associations of immune-poor CIN GEAs with MYC activity and CCNE1 amplification may enable new studies to determine precise mechanisms of immune evasion, ultimately inspiring new therapeutic modalities.
•There is large heterogeneity in the immune contexture of gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma (GEA) subtypes.•Chromosomal instable GEAs are often T cell excluded, which is associated with enhanced MYC and cell cycle pathways.•Genome stable cancers, contrarily, often have tertiary lymphoid structures.•This study argues for more personalized immunotargeting strategies in gastroesophageal cancer treatment.
Soils are losing increasing amounts of carbon annually to freshwaters as dissolved organic matter (DOM), which, if degraded, can offset their carbon sink capacity. However, the processes underlying ...DOM degradation across environments are poorly understood. Here we show DOM changes similarly along soil-aquatic gradients irrespective of environmental differences. Using ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry, we track DOM along soil depths and hillslope positions in forest catchments and relate its composition to soil microbiomes and physico-chemical conditions. Along depths and hillslopes, we find carbohydrate-like and unsaturated hydrocarbon-like compounds increase in abundance-weighted mass, and the expression of genes essential for degrading plant-derived carbohydrates explains >50% of the variation in abundance of these compounds. These results suggest that microbes transform plant-derived compounds, leaving DOM to become increasingly dominated by the same (i.e., universal), difficult-to-degrade compounds as degradation proceeds. By synthesising data from the land-to-ocean continuum, we suggest these processes generalise across ecosystems and spatiotemporal scales. Such general degradation patterns can help predict DOM composition and reactivity along environmental gradients to inform management of soil-to-stream carbon losses.
The etiology and pathophysiology of schizophrenia remain unknown. A parallel transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics approach was employed on human brain tissue to explore the molecular disease ...signatures. Almost half the altered proteins identified by proteomics were associated with mitochondrial function and oxidative stress responses. This was mirrored by transcriptional and metabolite perturbations. Cluster analysis of transcriptional alterations showed that genes related to energy metabolism and oxidative stress differentiated almost 90% of schizophrenia patients from controls, while confounding drug effects could be ruled out. We propose that oxidative stress and the ensuing cellular adaptations are linked to the schizophrenia disease process and hope that this new disease concept may advance the approach to treatment, diagnosis and disease prevention of schizophrenia and related syndromes.
OBJECTIVE:Our objective was to analyze factors predicting outcomes after a total pancreatectomy and islet autotransplantation (TP-IAT).
BACKGROUND:Chronic pancreatitis (CP) is increasingly treated by ...a TP-IAT. Postoperative outcomes are generally favorable, but a minority of patients fare poorly.
METHODS:In our single-centered study, we analyzed the records of 581 patients with CP who underwent a TP-IAT. Endpoints included persistent postoperative “pancreatic pain” similar to preoperative levels, narcotic use for any reason, and islet graft failure at 1 year.
RESULTS:In our patients, the duration (mean ± SD) of CP before their TP-IAT was 7.1 ± 0.3 years and narcotic usage of 3.3 ± 0.2 years. Pediatric patients had better postoperative outcomes. Among adult patients, the odds of narcotic use at 1 year were increased by previous endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) and stent placement, and a high number of previous stents (>3). Independent risk factors for pancreatic pain at 1 year were pancreas divisum, previous body mass index >30, and a high number of previous stents (>3). The strongest independent risk factor for islet graft failure was a low islet yield—in islet equivalents (IEQ)—per kilogram of body weight. We noted a strong dose-response relationship between the lowest-yield category (<2000 IEQ) and the highest (≥5000 IEQ or more). Islet graft failure was 25-fold more likely in the lowest-yield category.
CONCLUSIONS:This article represents the largest study of factors predicting outcomes after a TP-IAT. Preoperatively, the patient subgroups we identified warrant further attention.
Here, absolute cross sections for the addition of s- and d-wave neutrons to 14C and 14N have been determined simultaneously via the (d,p) reaction at 10 MeV/u. The difference between the neutron and ...proton separation energies, ΔS, is around -20 MeV for the 14C+n system and +8 MeV for 14N+n. The population of the 1s1/2 and 0d5/2 orbitals for both systems is reduced by a factor of approximately 0.5 compared with the independent single-particle model, or about 0.6 when compared with the shell model. This finding strongly contrasts with results deduced from intermediate-energy knockout reactions between similar nuclei on targets of 9Be and 12C. The simultaneous technique used removes many systematic uncertainties.
Important inference problems in statistical physics, computer vision, error-correcting coding theory, and artificial intelligence can all be reformulated as the computation of marginal probabilities ...on factor graphs. The belief propagation (BP) algorithm is an efficient way to solve these problems that is exact when the factor graph is a tree, but only approximate when the factor graph has cycles. We show that BP fixed points correspond to the stationary points of the Bethe approximation of the free energy for a factor graph. We explain how to obtain region-based free energy approximations that improve the Bethe approximation, and corresponding generalized belief propagation (GBP) algorithms. We emphasize the conditions a free energy approximation must satisfy in order to be a "valid" or "maxent-normal" approximation. We describe the relationship between four different methods that can be used to generate valid approximations: the "Bethe method", the "junction graph method", the "cluster variation method", and the "region graph method". Finally, we explain how to tell whether a region-based approximation, and its corresponding GBP algorithm, is likely to be accurate, and describe empirical results showing that GBP can significantly outperform BP.
A study of the records of more than 50,000 men with newly diagnosed prostate cancer found that androgen-deprivation treatment, either as gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonists or orchiectomy, ...increases the risk of fracture and of hospitalization due to fracture.
Androgen-deprivation treatment, either as gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonists or orchiectomy, increases the risk of fracture and of hospitalization due to fracture.
Androgen-deprivation therapy for prostate cancer can reduce morbidity, palliate metastases, and improve survival in locally advanced disease when combined with radiation.
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However, androgen-deprivation therapy alone, in the form of gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonists, is increasingly being used in men with localized prostate cancer (cancer confined to the prostate) and in men in whom the level of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) rises after prostatectomy
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— both situations in which most patients are minimally symptomatic and no survival benefit has been demonstrated.
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For these reasons, it is important to have accurate data on the toxic effects of androgen deprivation.
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