Knowing whether COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness wanes is crucial for informing vaccine policy, such as the need for and timing of booster doses. We aimed to systematically review the evidence for the ...duration of protection of COVID-19 vaccines against various clinical outcomes, and to assess changes in the rates of breakthrough infection caused by the delta variant with increasing time since vaccination.
This study was designed as a systematic review and meta-regression. We did a systematic review of preprint and peer-reviewed published article databases from June 17, 2021, to Dec 2, 2021. Randomised controlled trials of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and observational studies of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness were eligible. Studies with vaccine efficacy or effectiveness estimates at discrete time intervals of people who had received full vaccination and that met predefined screening criteria underwent full-text review. We used random-effects meta-regression to estimate the average change in vaccine efficacy or effectiveness 1–6 months after full vaccination.
Of 13 744 studies screened, 310 underwent full-text review, and 18 studies were included (all studies were carried out before the omicron variant began to circulate widely). Risk of bias, established using the risk of bias 2 tool for randomised controlled trials or the risk of bias in non-randomised studies of interventions tool was low for three studies, moderate for eight studies, and serious for seven studies. We included 78 vaccine-specific vaccine efficacy or effectiveness evaluations (Pfizer–BioNTech-Comirnaty, n=38; Moderna-mRNA-1273, n=23; Janssen-Ad26.COV2.S, n=9; and AstraZeneca-Vaxzevria, n=8). On average, vaccine efficacy or effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection decreased from 1 month to 6 months after full vaccination by 21·0 percentage points (95% CI 13·9–29·8) among people of all ages and 20·7 percentage points (10·2–36·6) among older people (as defined by each study, who were at least 50 years old). For symptomatic COVID-19 disease, vaccine efficacy or effectiveness decreased by 24·9 percentage points (95% CI 13·4–41·6) in people of all ages and 32·0 percentage points (11·0–69·0) in older people. For severe COVID-19 disease, vaccine efficacy or effectiveness decreased by 10·0 percentage points (95% CI 6·1–15·4) in people of all ages and 9·5 percentage points (5·7–14·6) in older people. Most (81%) vaccine efficacy or effectiveness estimates against severe disease remained greater than 70% over time.
COVID-19 vaccine efficacy or effectiveness against severe disease remained high, although it did decrease somewhat by 6 months after full vaccination. By contrast, vaccine efficacy or effectiveness against infection and symptomatic disease decreased approximately 20–30 percentage points by 6 months. The decrease in vaccine efficacy or effectiveness is likely caused by, at least in part, waning immunity, although an effect of bias cannot be ruled out. Evaluating vaccine efficacy or effectiveness beyond 6 months will be crucial for updating COVID-19 vaccine policy.
Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations.
We provide two methods for monitoring reinfection trends in routine surveillance data to identify signatures of changes in reinfection risk and apply these approaches to data from South Africa's ...severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic to date. Although we found no evidence of increased reinfection risk associated with circulation of the Beta (B.1.351) or Delta (B.1.617.2) variants, we did find clear, population-level evidence to suggest immune evasion by the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant in previously infected individuals in South Africa. Reinfections occurring between 1 November 2021 and 31 January 2022 were detected in individuals infected in all three previous waves, and there has been an increase in the risk of having a third infection since mid-November 2021.
Up to the end of January, 2022, South Africa has had four recognisable COVID-19 pandemic waves, each predominantly dominated by one variant of concern: the ancestral strain with an Asp614Gly mutation ...during the first wave, the beta variant (B.1.351) during the second wave, the delta variant (B.1.617.2) during the third wave, and lastly, the omicron variant (B.1.1.529) during the fourth wave. We aimed to assess the clinical disease severity of patients admitted to hospital with SARS-CoV-2 infection during the omicron wave and compare the findings with those of the preceding three pandemic waves in South Africa.
We defined the start and end of each pandemic wave as the crossing of the threshold of weekly incidence of 30 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases per 100 000 population. Hospital admission data were collected through an active national COVID-19-specific surveillance programme. We compared disease severity across waves by post-imputation random effect multivariable logistic regression models. Severe disease was defined as one or more of the following: acute respiratory distress, receipt of supplemental oxygen or mechanical ventilation, admission to intensive care, or death.
We analysed 335 219 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 hospital admissions with a known outcome, constituting 10·4% of 3 216 179 cases recorded during the four waves. During the omicron wave, 52 038 (8·3%) of 629 617 cases were admitted to hospital, compared with 71 411 (12·9%) of 553 530 in the Asp614Gly wave, 91 843 (12·6%) of 726 772 in the beta wave, and 131 083 (10·0%) of 1 306 260 in the delta wave (p<0·0001). During the omicron wave, 15 421 (33·6%) of 45 927 patients admitted to hospital had severe disease, compared with 36 837 (52·3%) of 70 424 in the Asp614Gly wave, 57 247 (63·4%) of 90 310 in the beta wave, and 81 040 (63·0%) of 128 558 in the delta wave (p<0·0001). The in-hospital case-fatality ratio during the omicron wave was 10·7%, compared with 21·5% during the Asp614Gly wave, 28·8% during the beta wave, and 26·4% during the delta wave (p<0·0001). Compared with those admitted to hospital during the omicron wave, patients admitted during the other three waves had more severe clinical presentations (adjusted odds ratio 2·07 95% CI 2·01–2·13 in the Asp614Gly wave, 3·59 3·49–3·70 in the beta wave, and 3·47 3·38–3·57 in the delta wave).
The trend of increasing cases and admissions across South Africa's first three waves shifted in the omicron wave, with a higher and quicker peak but fewer patients admitted to hospital, less clinically severe illness, and a lower case-fatality ratio compared with the preceding three waves. Omicron marked a change in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic curve, clinical profile, and deaths in South Africa. Extrapolations to other populations should factor in differing vaccination and previous infection levels.
National Institute for Communicable Diseases.
The SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant of concern was identified in South Africa in November, 2021, and was associated with an increase in COVID-19 cases. We aimed to assess the clinical severity of ...infections with the omicron variant using S gene target failure (SGTF) on the Thermo Fisher Scientific TaqPath COVID-19 PCR test as a proxy.
We did data linkages for national, South African COVID-19 case data, SARS-CoV-2 laboratory test data, SARS-CoV-2 genome data, and COVID-19 hospital admissions data. For individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 via TaqPath PCR tests, infections were designated as either SGTF or non-SGTF. The delta variant was identified by genome sequencing. Using multivariable logistic regression models, we assessed disease severity and hospitalisations by comparing individuals with SGTF versus non-SGTF infections diagnosed between Oct 1 and Nov 30, 2021, and we further assessed disease severity by comparing SGTF-infected individuals diagnosed between Oct 1 and Nov 30, 2021, with delta variant-infected individuals diagnosed between April 1 and Nov 9, 2021.
From Oct 1 (week 39), 2021, to Dec 6 (week 49), 2021, 161 328 cases of COVID-19 were reported in South Africa. 38 282 people were diagnosed via TaqPath PCR tests and 29 721 SGTF infections and 1412 non-SGTF infections were identified. The proportion of SGTF infections increased from two (3·2%) of 63 in week 39 to 21 978 (97·9%) of 22 455 in week 48. After controlling for factors associated with hospitalisation, individuals with SGTF infections had significantly lower odds of admission than did those with non-SGTF infections (256 2·4% of 10 547 vs 121 12·8% of 948; adjusted odds ratio aOR 0·2, 95% CI 0·1–0·3). After controlling for factors associated with disease severity, the odds of severe disease were similar between hospitalised individuals with SGTF versus non-SGTF infections (42 21% of 204 vs 45 40% of 113; aOR 0·7, 95% CI 0·3–1·4). Compared with individuals with earlier delta variant infections, SGTF-infected individuals had a significantly lower odds of severe disease (496 62·5% of 793 vs 57 23·4% of 244; aOR 0·3, 95% CI 0·2–0·5), after controlling for factors associated with disease severity.
Our early analyses suggest a significantly reduced odds of hospitalisation among individuals with SGTF versus non-SGTF infections diagnosed during the same time period. SGTF-infected individuals had a significantly reduced odds of severe disease compared with individuals infected earlier with the delta variant. Some of this reduced severity is probably a result of previous immunity.
The South African Medical Research Council, the South African National Department of Health, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the African Society of Laboratory Medicine, Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Wellcome Trust, and the Fleming Fund.
Abstract
Omicron lineages BA.4 and BA.5 drove a fifth wave of COVID-19 cases in South Africa. Here, we use the presence/absence of the S-gene target as a proxy for SARS-CoV-2 variant/lineage for ...infections diagnosed using the TaqPath PCR assay between 1 October 2021 and 26 April 2022. We link national COVID-19 individual-level data including case, laboratory test and hospitalisation data. We assess severity using multivariable logistic regression comparing the risk of hospitalisation and risk of severe disease, once hospitalised, for Delta, BA.1, BA.2 and BA.4/BA.5 infections. After controlling for factors associated with hospitalisation and severe outcome respectively, BA.4/BA.5-infected individuals had a similar odds of hospitalisation (aOR 1.24, 95% CI 0.98–1.55) and severe outcome (aOR 0.72, 95% CI 0.41–1.26) compared to BA.1-infected individuals. Newly emerged Omicron lineages BA.4/BA.5 showed similar severity to the BA.1 lineage and continued to show reduced clinical severity compared to the Delta variant.
Summary Background Efficacy of live oral rotavirus vaccines is reduced in low-income compared with high-income settings. Parenteral non-replicating rotavirus vaccines might offer benefits over oral ...vaccines. We assessed the safety and immunogenicity of the P2-VP8-P8 subunit rotavirus vaccine at different doses in South African toddlers and infants. Methods This double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, dose-escalation trial was done at a single research unit based at a hospital in South Africa in healthy HIV-uninfected toddlers (aged 2 to <3 years) and term infants (aged 6 to <8 weeks, without previous rotavirus vaccination). Block randomisation (computer-generated, electronic allocation) was used to assign eligible toddlers (in a 6:1 ratio) and infants (in a 3:1 ratio) in each dose cohort (10 μg, followed by 30 μg, then 60 μg if doses tolerated) to parenteral P2-VP8-P8 subunit rotavirus or placebo injection. The two highest tolerated doses were then assessed in an expanded cohort (in a 1:1:1 ratio). Parents of participants and clinical, data, and laboratory staff were masked to treatment assignment. P2-VP8-P8 vaccine versus placebo was assessed first in toddlers (single injection) and then in infants (three injections 4 weeks apart). The primary safety endpoints were local and systemic reactions within 7 days after each injection, adverse events within 28 days after each injection, and all serious adverse events, assessed in toddlers and infants who received at least one dose. In infants receiving all study injections, primary immunogenicity endpoints were anti-P2-VP8-P8 IgA and IgG and neutralising antibody seroresponses and geometric mean titres 4 weeks after the third injection. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov , number NCT02109484. Findings Between March 17, 2014, and Sept 29, 2014, 42 toddlers (36 to vaccine and six to placebo) and 48 infants (36 to vaccine and 12 to placebo) were enrolled in the dose-escalation phase, in which the 30 μg and 60 μg doses where found to be the highest tolerated doses. A further 114 infants were enrolled in the expanded cohort between Nov 3, 2014, and March 20, 2015, and all 162 infants (12 assigned to 10 μg, 50 to 30 μg, 50 to 60 μg, and 50 to placebo) were included in the safety analysis. Serum IgA seroresponses were observed in 38 (81%, 95% CI 67–91) of 47 infants in the 30 μg group and 32 (68%, 53–81) of 47 in the 60 μg group, compared with nine (20%, 10–35) of 45 in the placebo group; adjusted IgG seroresponses were seen in 46 (98%, 89–100) of 47 infants in the 30 μg group and 47 (100%; 92–100) of 47 in the 60 μg group, compared with four (9%, 2·5–21) of 45 in the placebo group; and adjusted neutralising antibody seroresponses against the homologous Wa-strain were seen in 40 (85%, 72–94) of 47 infants in both the 30 μg and 60 μg groups, compared with three (7%, 1·4–18) of 45 participants in the placebo group. Solicited reactions following any injection occurred with similar frequency and severity in participants receiving vaccine and those receiving placebo. Unsolicited adverse events were mostly mild and occurred at a similar frequency between groups. Eight serious adverse events (one with placebo, two with 30 μg, and five with 60 μg) occurred in seven infants within 28 days of any study injection, none of which were deemed related to study treatment. Interpretation The parenteral P2-VP8-P8 vaccine was well tolerated and immunogenic in infants, providing a novel approach to vaccination against rotavirus disease. On the basis of these results, a phase 1/2 trial of a trivalent P2-VP8 (P4, P6, and P8) subunit vaccine is underway at three sites in South Africa. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Objectives To assess neurological sequelae and growth in the first 12 months of life in a cohort of congenital cytomegalovirus (cCMV) infected infants compared to cCMV uninfected infants. Study ...design This was a prospective matched cohort study conducted in Soweto, South Africa where forty-six confirmed cCMV cases were matched on HIV-exposure, gender and gestational age (#177;two weeks) to 84 cCMV-uninfected controls in a 1:2 ratio. Cases and controls were followed up until 12 months of age to assess anthropometry, hearing and neurodevelopmental outcomes. Results Thirty-four (73.9%) cCMV cases and 74 (88.1%) controls, completed all assessments at 12 months age. At 12 months, one cCMV case had died, none of the children in either group had SNHL and neurodevelopmental delay was present in a similar percentage of cCMV cases (n = 2; 6%) and controls (n = 1, 4%; OR 1.09, 95% CI 0.04-27.84, p = 0.958). Anthropometry did not differ between cases and controls overall throughout the follow up period. HIV-exposed cases had smaller head circumference for age at 6 and 12 months when compared with HIV-exposed controls. Conclusion By 12 months of age, there was no evidence of a difference in neurological sequelae between cCMV infected South African children and cCMV uninfected children in this study. Further follow-up is warranted to detect late-onset hearing loss and neurodevelopmental delay beyond 12 months of age.
A monovalent, parenteral, subunit rotavirus vaccine was well tolerated and immunogenic in adults in the USA and in toddlers and infants in South Africa, but elicited poor responses against ...heterotypic rotavirus strains. We aimed to evaluate safety and immunogenicity of a trivalent vaccine formulation (P2-VP8-P4,6,8).
A double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, dose-escalation, phase 1/2 study was done at three South African research sites. Healthy adults (aged 18–45 years), toddlers (aged 2–3 years), and infants (aged 6–8 weeks, ≥37 weeks' gestation, and without previous receipt of rotavirus vaccination), all without HIV infection, were eligible for enrolment. In the dose-escalation phase, adults and toddlers were randomly assigned in blocks (block size of five) to receive 30 μg or 90 μg of vaccine, or placebo, and infants were randomly assigned in blocks (block size of four) to receive 15 μg, 30 μg, or 90 μg of vaccine, or placebo. In the expanded phase, infants were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1:1 ratio to receive 15 μg, 30 μg, or 90 μg of vaccine, or placebo, in block sizes of four. Participants, parents of participants, and clinical, data, and laboratory staff were masked to treatment assignment. Adults received an intramuscular injection of vaccine or placebo in the deltoid muscle on the day of randomisation (day 0), day 28, and day 56; toddlers received a single injection of vaccine or placebo in the anterolateral thigh on day 0. Infants in both phases received an injection of vaccine or placebo in the anterolateral thigh on days 0, 28, and 56, at approximately 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age. Primary safety endpoints were local and systemic reactions (grade 2 or worse) within 7 days and adverse events and serious adverse events within 28 days after each injection in all participants who received at least one injection. Primary immunogenicity endpoints were analysed in infants in either phase who received all planned injections, had blood samples analysed at the relevant timepoints, and presented no major protocol violations considered to have an effect on the immunogenicity results of the study, and included serum anti-P2-VP8 IgA, IgG, and neutralising antibody geometric mean titres and responses measured 4 weeks after the final injection in vaccine compared with placebo groups. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02646891.
Between Feb 15, 2016, and Dec 22, 2017, 30 adults (12 each in the 30 μg and 90 μg groups and six in the placebo group), 30 toddlers (12 each in the 30 μg and 90 μg groups and six in the placebo group), and 557 infants (139 in the 15 μg group, 140 in the 30 μg group, 139 in the 90 μg group, and 139 in the placebo group) were randomly assigned, received at least one dose, and were assessed for safety. There were no significant differences in local or systemic adverse events, or unsolicited adverse events, between vaccine and placebo groups. There were no serious adverse events within 28 days of injection in adults, whereas one serious adverse event occurred in a toddler (febrile convulsion in the 30 μg group) and 23 serious adverse events (four in placebo, ten in 15 μg, four in 30 μg, and five in 90 μg groups) occurred among 20 infants, most commonly respiratory tract infections. One death occurred in an infant within 28 days of injection due to pneumococcal meningitis. In 528 infants (130 in placebo, 132 in 15 μg, 132 in 30 μg, and 134 in 90 μg groups), adjusted anti-P2-VP8 IgG seroresponses (≥4-fold increase from baseline) to P4, P6, and P8 antigens were significantly higher in the 15 μg, 30 μg, and 90 μg groups (99–100%) than in the placebo group (10–29%; p<0·0001). Although significantly higher than in placebo recipients (9–10%), anti-P2-VP8 IgA seroresponses (≥4-fold increase from baseline) to each individual antigen were modest (20–34%) across the 15 μg, 30 μg, and 90 μg groups. Adjusted neutralising antibody seroresponses in infants (≥2·7-fold increase from baseline) to DS-1 (P4), 1076 (P6), and Wa (P8) were higher in vaccine recipients than in placebo recipients: p<0·0001 for all comparisons.
The trivalent P2-VP8 vaccine was well tolerated, with promising anti-P2-VP8 IgG and neutralising antibody responses across the three vaccine P types. Our findings support advancing the vaccine to efficacy testing.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
•A total of 47% of hospitalized and 19% of nonhospitalized participants had symptoms at 6 months.•There was no difference in persistent symptoms by HIV status.•There was a lower risk of persistent ...symptoms with infection during Omicron than Beta.•There were no associations between self-reported vaccination status with persistent symptoms.
The study aimed to describe the prevalence of and risk factors for post-COVID-19 condition (PCC).
This was a prospective, longitudinal observational cohort study. Hospitalized and nonhospitalized adults were randomly selected to undergo telephone assessment at 1, 3, and 6 months. Participants were assessed using a standardized questionnaire for the evaluation of symptoms and health-related quality of life. We used negative binomial regression models to determine factors associated with the presence of ≥1 symptoms at 6 months.
A total of 46.7% of hospitalized and 18.5% of nonhospitalized participants experienced ≥1 symptoms at 6 months (P ≤0.001). Among hospitalized people living with HIV, 40.4% had persistent symptoms compared with 47.1% among participants without HIV (P = 0.108). The risk factors for PCC included older age, female sex, non-Black race, presence of a comorbidity, greater number of acute COVID-19 symptoms, hospitalization/COVID-19 severity, and wave period (lower risk of persistent symptoms for the Omicron compared with the Beta wave). There were no associations between self-reported vaccination status with persistent symptoms.
The study revealed a high prevalence of persistent symptoms among South African participants at 6 months but decreased risk for PCC among participants infected during the Omicron BA.1 wave. These findings have serious implications for countries with resource-constrained health care systems.
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