Patients who had a positive laboratory test for influenza were six times as likely to be hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction during the 7 days after specimen collection (the “risk interval”) ...as during the year before and the year after the risk interval.
AbstractObjectiveTo estimate the effectiveness of mRNA covid-19 vaccines against symptomatic infection and severe outcomes (hospital admission or death).DesignTest negative design ...study.SettingOntario, Canada between 14 December 2020 and 19 April 2021.Participants324 033 community dwelling people aged ≥16 years who had symptoms of covid-19 and were tested for SARS-CoV-2.InterventionsBNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) or mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccine.Main outcome measuresLaboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and hospital admissions and deaths associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Multivariable logistic regression was adjusted for personal and clinical characteristics associated with SARS-CoV-2 and vaccine receipt to estimate vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection and severe outcomes.ResultsOf 324 033 people with symptoms, 53 270 (16.4%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 and 21 272 (6.6%) received at least one dose of vaccine. Among participants who tested positive, 2479 (4.7%) were admitted to hospital or died. Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection observed ≥14 days after one dose was 60% (95% confidence interval 57% to 64%), increasing from 48% (41% to 54%) at 14-20 days after one dose to 71% (63% to 78%) at 35-41 days. Vaccine effectiveness observed ≥7 days after two doses was 91% (89% to 93%). Vaccine effectiveness against hospital admission or death observed ≥14 days after one dose was 70% (60% to 77%), increasing from 62% (44% to 75%) at 14-20 days to 91% (73% to 97%) at ≥35 days, whereas vaccine effectiveness observed ≥7 days after two doses was 98% (88% to 100%). For adults aged ≥70 years, vaccine effectiveness estimates were observed to be lower for intervals shortly after one dose but were comparable to those for younger people for all intervals after 28 days. After two doses, high vaccine effectiveness was observed against variants with the E484K mutation.ConclusionsTwo doses of mRNA covid-19 vaccines were observed to be highly effective against symptomatic infection and severe outcomes. Vaccine effectiveness of one dose was observed to be lower, particularly for older adults shortly after the first dose.
The occurrence of influenza in different climates has been shown to be associated with multiple meteorological factors. The incidence of influenza has been reported to increase during rainy seasons ...in tropical climates and during the dry, cold months of winter in temperate climates. This study was designed to explore the role of absolute humidity (AH), relative humidity (RH), temperature, and wind speed (WS) on influenza activity in the Toronto, ON, Canada, area. Environmental data obtained from four meteorological stations in the Toronto area over the period from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2015 were linked to patient influenza data obtained for the same locality and period. Data were analyzed using correlation, negative binomial regressions with linear predictors, and splines to capture the nonlinear relationship between exposure and outcomes. Our study found a negative association of both AH and temperature with influenza A and B virus infections. The effect of RH on influenza A and B viruses was controversial. Temperature fluctuation was associated with increased numbers of influenza B virus infections. Influenza virus was less likely to be detected from community patients than from patients tested as part of an institutional outbreak investigation. This could be more indicative of nosocomial transmission rather than climactic factors. The nonlinear nature of the relationship of influenza A virus with temperature and of influenza B virus with AH, RH, and temperature could explain the complexity and variation between influenza A and B virus infections. Predicting influenza activity is important for the timing of implementation of disease prevention and control measures as well as for resource allocation.
This study examined the relationship between environmental factors and the occurrence of influenza in general. Since the seasonality of influenza A and B viruses is different in most temperate climates, we also examined each influenza virus separately. This study reports a negative association of both absolute humidity and temperature with influenza A and B viruses and tries to understand the controversial effect of RH on influenza A and B viruses. This study reports a nonlinear relation between influenza A and B viruses with temperature and influenza B virus with absolute and relative humidity. The nonlinear nature of these relations could explain the complexity and difference in seasonality between influenza A and B viruses, with the latter predominating later in the season. Separating community-based specimens from those obtained during outbreaks was also a novel approach in this research. These findings provide a further understanding of influenza virus transmission in temperate climates.
Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) is generally interpreted in the context of vaccine match/mismatch to circulating strains with evolutionary drift in the latter invoked to explain reduced ...protection. During the 2012-13 season, however, detailed genotypic and phenotypic characterization shows that low VE was instead related to mutations in the egg-adapted H3N2 vaccine strain rather than antigenic drift in circulating viruses.
Component-specific VE against medically-attended, PCR-confirmed influenza was estimated in Canada by test-negative case-control design. Influenza A viruses were characterized genotypically by amino acid (AA) sequencing of established haemagglutinin (HA) antigenic sites and phenotypically through haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. H3N2 viruses were characterized in relation to the WHO-recommended, cell-passaged vaccine prototype (A/Victoria/361/2011) as well as the egg-adapted strain as per actually used in vaccine production. Among the total of 1501 participants, influenza virus was detected in 652 (43%). Nearly two-thirds of viruses typed/subtyped were A(H3N2) (394/626; 63%); the remainder were A(H1N1)pdm09 (79/626; 13%), B/Yamagata (98/626; 16%) or B/Victoria (54/626; 9%). Suboptimal VE of 50% (95%CI: 33-63%) overall was driven by predominant H3N2 activity for which VE was 41% (95%CI: 17-59%). All H3N2 field isolates were HI-characterized as well-matched to the WHO-recommended A/Victoria/361/2011 prototype whereas all but one were antigenically distinct from the egg-adapted strain as per actually used in vaccine production. The egg-adapted strain was itself antigenically distinct from the WHO-recommended prototype, and bore three AA mutations at antigenic sites B H156Q, G186V and D S219Y. Conversely, circulating viruses were identical to the WHO-recommended prototype at these positions with other genetic variation that did not affect antigenicity. VE was 59% (95%CI:16-80%) against A(H1N1)pdm09, 67% (95%CI: 30-85%) against B/Yamagata (vaccine-lineage) and 75% (95%CI: 29-91%) against B/Victoria (non-vaccine-lineage) viruses.
These findings underscore the need to monitor vaccine viruses as well as circulating strains to explain vaccine performance. Evolutionary drift in circulating viruses cannot be regulated, but influential mutations introduced as part of egg-based vaccine production may be amenable to improvements.
Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) is the main cause of acute lower respiratory infections in children under 2 years of age and causes repeated infections throughout life. We investigated the ...genetic variability of RSV-A circulating in Ontario during 2010-2011 winter season by sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of the G glycoprotein gene.Among the 201 consecutive RSV isolates studied, RSV-A (55.7%) was more commonly observed than RSV-B (42.3%). 59.8% and 90.1% of RSV-A infections were among children ≤12 months and ≤5 years old, respectively. On phylogenetic analysis of the second hypervariable region of the 112 RSV-A strains, 110 (98.2%) clustered within or adjacent to the NA1 genotype; two isolates were GA5 genotype. Eleven (10%) NA1-related isolates clustered together phylogenetically as a novel RSV-A genotype, named ON1, containing a 72 nucleotide duplication in the C-terminal region of the attachment (G) glycoprotein. The predicted polypeptide is lengthened by 24 amino acids and includes a23 amino acid duplication. Using RNA secondary structural software, a possible mechanism of duplication occurrence was derived. The 23 amino acid ON1 G gene duplication results in a repeat of 7 potential O-glycosylation sites including three O-linked sugar acceptors at residues 270, 275, and 283. Using Phylogenetic Analysis by Maximum Likelihood analysis, a total of 19 positively selected sites were observed among Ontario NA1 isolates; six were found to be codons which reverted to the previous state observed in the prototype RSV-A2 strain. The tendency of codon regression in the G-ectodomain may infer a decreased avidity of antibody to the current circulating strains. Further work is needed to document and further understand the emergence, virulence, pathogenicity and transmissibility of this novel RSV-A genotype with a72 nucleotide G gene duplication.
Highlights • We propose that increased viral loads are associated with hospitalization. • Influenza A/H3N2 had the highest viral load of the three viruses. • Increased influenza A/H3N2 viral loads ...were not associated with hospitalization. • High influenza B viral loads are associated with hospitalization/ICU admission. • Rhinovirus viral loads do not differ by age or patient setting.
Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) A ON1 genotype, first detected in 2010 in Ontario, Canada, has been documented in 21 countries to date. This study investigated persistence and transmission ...dynamics of ON1 by grouping 406 randomly selected RSV-positive specimens submitted to Public Health Ontario from August 2011 to August 2012; RSV-A-positive specimens were genotyped. We identified 370 RSV-A (181 NA1, 135 NA2, 51 ON1 3 GA5) and 36 RSV-B positive specimens. We aligned time-stamped second hypervariable region (330 bp) of G-gene sequence data (global, n = 483; and Ontario, n = 60) to evaluate transmission dynamics. Global data suggests that the most recent common ancestor of ON1 emerged during the 2008-2009 season. Mean evolutionary rate of the global ON1 was 4.10 × 10(-3) substitutions/site/year (95% BCI 3.1-5.0 × 10(-3)), not significantly different to that of Ontario ON1. The estimated mean reproductive number (R0 = ∼ 1.01) from global and Ontario sequences showed no significant difference and implies stability among global RSV-A ON1. This study suggests that local epidemics exhibit similar underlying evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics to that of the persistent global RSV-A ON1 population. These findings underscore the importance of continual molecular surveillance of RSV in order to gain a better understanding of epidemics.
Abstract
We report diagnosis and management of the first laboratory-confirmed case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalized in Toronto, Canada. No healthcare-associated transmission ...occurred. In the face of a potential pandemic of COVID-19, we suggest sustainable and scalable control measures developed based on lessons learned from severe acute respiratory syndrome.
Background. The antigenic distance hypothesis (ADH) predicts that negative interference from prior season's influenza vaccine (v1) on the current season's vaccine (v2) protection may occur when the ...antigenic distance is small between v1 and v2 (v1 ≈ v2) but large between v1 and the current epidemic (e) strain (v1 ≠ e). Methods. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) against medically attended, laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H3N2) illness was estimated by test-negative design during 3 A(H3N2) epidemics (2010–2011, 2012–2013, 2014–2015) in Canada. Vaccine effectiveness was derived with covariate adjustment across v2 and/or v1 categories relative to no vaccine receipt among outpatients aged ≥9 years. Prior vaccination effects were interpreted within the ADH framework. Results. Prior vaccination effects varied significantly by season, consistent with the ADH. There was no interference by v1 in 2010–2011 when v1 ≠ v2 and v1 ≠ e, with comparable VE for v2 alone or v2 + v1: 34% (95% confidence interval CI = −51% to 71%) versus 34% (95% CI = −5% to 58%). Negative interference by v1 was suggested in 2012–2013 with nonsignificant reduction in VE when v1 ≈ v2 and v1 ≠ e: 49% (95% CI = −47% to 83%) versus 28% (95% CI = −12% to 54%). Negative effects of prior vaccination were pronounced and statistically significant in 2014–2015 when v1 ≡ v2 and v1 ≠ e: 65% (95% CI = 25% to 83%) versus −33% (95% CI = −78% to 1%). Conclusions. Effects of repeat influenza vaccination were consistent with the ADH and may have contributed to findings of low VE across recent A(H3N2) epidemics since 2010 in Canada.
With emergence of pandemic COVID-19, rapid and accurate diagnostic testing is essential. This study compared laboratory-developed tests (LDTs) used for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in Canadian ...hospital and public health laboratories, and some commercially available real-time RT-PCR assays. Overall, analytical sensitivities were equivalent between LDTs and most commercially available methods.
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