Despite no or limited pre-clinical evidence, repurposed drugs are massively evaluated in clinical trials to palliate the lack of antiviral molecules against SARS-CoV-2. Here we use a Syrian hamster ...model to assess the antiviral efficacy of favipiravir, understand its mechanism of action and determine its pharmacokinetics. When treatment is initiated before or simultaneously to infection, favipiravir has a strong dose effect, leading to reduction of infectious titers in lungs and clinical alleviation of the disease. Antiviral effect of favipiravir correlates with incorporation of a large number of mutations into viral genomes and decrease of viral infectivity. Antiviral efficacy is achieved with plasma drug exposure comparable with those previously found during human clinical trials. Notably, the highest dose of favipiravir tested is associated with signs of toxicity in animals. Thereby, pharmacokinetic and tolerance studies are required to determine whether similar effects can be safely achieved in humans.
The impact of variants of concern (VoC) on SARS-CoV-2 viral dynamics remains poorly understood and essentially relies on observational studies subject to various sorts of biases. In contrast, ...experimental models of infection constitute a powerful model to perform controlled comparisons of the viral dynamics observed with VoC and better quantify how VoC escape from the immune response. Here we used molecular and infectious viral load of 78 cynomolgus macaques to characterize in detail the effects of VoC on viral dynamics. We first developed a mathematical model that recapitulate the observed dynamics, and we found that the best model describing the data assumed a rapid antigen-dependent stimulation of the immune response leading to a rapid reduction of viral infectivity. When compared with the historical variant, all VoC except beta were associated with an escape from this immune response, and this effect was particularly sensitive for delta and omicron variant (p<10-6 for both). Interestingly, delta variant was associated with a 1.8-fold increased viral production rate (p = 0.046), while conversely omicron variant was associated with a 14-fold reduction in viral production rate (p<10-6). During a natural infection, our models predict that delta variant is associated with a higher peak viral RNA than omicron variant (7.6 log10 copies/mL 95% CI 6.8-8 for delta; 5.6 log10 copies/mL 95% CI 4.8-6.3 for omicron) while having similar peak infectious titers (3.7 log10 PFU/mL 95% CI 2.4-4.6 for delta; 2.8 log10 PFU/mL 95% CI 1.9-3.8 for omicron). These results provide a detailed picture of the effects of VoC on total and infectious viral load and may help understand some differences observed in the patterns of viral transmission of these viruses.
Lassa fever is an haemorrhagic fever caused by Lassa virus (LASV). There is no vaccine approved against LASV and the only recommended antiviral treatment relies on ribavirin, despite limited evidence ...of efficacy. Recently, the nucleotide analogue favipiravir showed a high antiviral efficacy, with 100% survival obtained in an otherwise fully lethal non-human primate (NHP) model of Lassa fever. However the mechanism of action of the drug is not known and the absence of pharmacokinetic data limits the translation of these results to the human setting. Here we aimed to better understand the antiviral effect of favipiravir by developping the first mathematical model recapitulating Lassa viral dynamics and treatment. We analyzed the viral dynamics in 24 NHPs left untreated or treated with ribavirin or favipiravir, and we put the results in perspective with those obtained with the same drugs in the context of Ebola infection. Our model estimates favipiravir EC50 in vivo to 2.89 μg.mL-1, which is much lower than what was found against Ebola virus. The main mechanism of action of favipiravir was to decrease virus infectivity, with an efficacy of 91% at the highest dose. Based on our knowledge acquired on the drug pharmacokinetics in humans, our model predicts that favipiravir doses larger than 1200 mg twice a day should have the capability to strongly reduce the production infectious virus and provide a milestone towards a future use in humans.
Despite repeated outbreaks, in particular the devastating 2014-2016 epidemic, there is no effective treatment validated for patients with Ebola virus disease (EVD). Among the drug candidates is the ...broad-spectrum polymerase inhibitor favipiravir, which showed a good tolerance profile in patients with EVD (JIKI trial) but did not demonstrate a strong antiviral efficacy. In order to gain new insights into the antiviral efficacy of favipiravir and improve preparedness and public health management of future outbreaks, we assess the efficacy achieved by ascending doses of favipiravir in Ebola-virus-infected nonhuman primates (NHPs).
A total of 26 animals (Macaca fascicularis) were challenged intramuscularly at day 0 with 1,000 focus-forming units of Ebola virus Gabon 2001 strain and followed for 21 days (study termination). This included 13 animals left untreated and 13 treated with doses of 100, 150, and 180 mg/kg (N = 3, 5, and 5, respectively) favipiravir administered intravenously twice a day for 14 days, starting 2 days before infection. All animals left untreated or treated with 100 mg/kg died within 10 days post-infection, while animals receiving 150 and 180 mg/kg had extended survival (P < 0.001 and 0.001, respectively, compared to untreated animals), leading to a survival rate of 40% (2/5) and 60% (3/5), respectively, at day 21. Favipiravir inhibited viral replication (molecular and infectious viral loads) in a drug-concentration-dependent manner (P values < 0.001), and genomic deep sequencing analyses showed an increase in virus mutagenesis over time. These results allowed us to identify that plasma trough favipiravir concentrations greater than 70-80 μg/ml were associated with reduced viral loads, lower virus infectivity, and extended survival. These levels are higher than those found in the JIKI trial, where patients had median trough drug concentrations equal to 46 and 26 μg/ml at day 2 and day 4 post-treatment, respectively, and suggest that the dosing regimen in the JIKI trial was suboptimal. The environment of a biosafety level 4 laboratory introduces a number of limitations, in particular the difficulty of conducting blind studies and performing detailed pharmacological assessments. Further, the extrapolation of the results to patients with EVD is limited by the fact that the model is fully lethal and that treatment initiation in patients with EVD is most often initiated several days after infection, when symptoms and high levels of viral replication are already present.
Our results suggest that favipiravir may be an effective antiviral drug against Ebola virus that relies on RNA chain termination and possibly error catastrophe. These results, together with previous data collected on tolerance and pharmacokinetics in both NHPs and humans, support a potential role for high doses of favipiravir for future human interventions.
The 2014-2015 outbreak of Ebola virus disease is the largest epidemic to date in terms of the number of cases, deaths, and affected areas. In October 2015, no antiviral agents had proven antiviral ...efficacy in patients. However, in September 2014, the World Health Organization inventoried and has since regularly updated a list of potential drug candidates with demonstrated antiviral efficacy in in vitro or animal models. This includes agents belonging to various therapeutic classes, namely direct antiviral agents (favipiravir and BCX4430), a combination of antibodies (ZMapp), type I interferons, RNA interference-based drugs (TKM-Ebola and AVI-7537), and anticoagulant drugs (rNAPc2). Here, we review the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic information presently available for these drugs, using data obtained in healthy volunteers for pharmacokinetics and data obtained in human clinical trials or animal models for pharmacodynamics. Future studies evaluating these drugs in clinical trials are critical to confirm their efficacy in humans, propose appropriate doses, and evaluate the possibility of treatment combinations.
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly become a global pandemic and no antiviral drug or vaccine is yet available for the treatment of this disease
. Several clinical studies are ongoing to ...evaluate the efficacy of repurposed drugs that have demonstrated antiviral efficacy in vitro. Among these candidates, hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) has been given to thousands of individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-the virus that causes COVID-19-worldwide but there is no definitive evidence that HCQ is effective for treating COVID-19
. Here we evaluated the antiviral activity of HCQ both in vitro and in SARS-CoV-2-infected macaques. HCQ showed antiviral activity in African green monkey kidney cells (Vero E6) but not in a model of reconstituted human airway epithelium. In macaques, we tested different treatment strategies in comparison to a placebo treatment, before and after peak viral load, alone or in combination with azithromycin (AZTH). Neither HCQ nor the combination of HCQ and AZTH showed a significant effect on viral load in any of the analysed tissues. When the drug was used as a pre-exposure prophylaxis treatment, HCQ did not confer protection against infection with SARS-CoV-2. Our findings do not support the use of HCQ, either alone or in combination with AZTH, as an antiviral drug for the treatment of COVID-19 in humans.
Repurposed drugs that are safe and immediately available constitute a first line of defense against new viral infections. Despite limited antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2, several drugs are ...being tested as medication or as prophylaxis to prevent infection. Using a stochastic model of early phase infection, we evaluate the success of prophylactic treatment with different drug types to prevent viral infection. We find that there exists a critical efficacy that a treatment must reach in order to block viral establishment. Treatment by a combination of drugs reduces the critical efficacy, most effectively by the combination of a drug blocking viral entry into cells and a drug increasing viral clearance. Below the critical efficacy, the risk of infection can nonetheless be reduced. Drugs blocking viral entry into cells or enhancing viral clearance reduce the risk of infection more than drugs that reduce viral production in infected cells. The larger the initial inoculum of infectious virus, the less likely is prevention of an infection. In our model, we find that as long as the viral inoculum is smaller than 10 infectious virus particles, viral infection can be prevented almost certainly with drugs of 90% efficacy (or more). Even when a viral infection cannot be prevented, antivirals delay the time to detectable viral loads. The largest delay of viral infection is achieved by drugs reducing viral production in infected cells. A delay of virus infection flattens the within-host viral dynamic curve, possibly reducing transmission and symptom severity. Thus, antiviral prophylaxis, even with reduced efficacy, could be efficiently used to prevent or alleviate infection in people at high risk.
The relationship between SARS-CoV-2 viral load and infectiousness is poorly known. Using data from a cohort of cases and high-risk contacts, we reconstructed viral load at the time of contact and ...inferred the probability of infection. The effect of viral load was larger in household contacts than in non-household contacts, with a transmission probability as large as 48% when the viral load was greater than 1010 copies per mL. The transmission probability peaked at symptom onset, with a mean probability of transmission of 29%, with large individual variations. The model also projects the effects of variants on disease transmission. Based on the current knowledge that viral load is increased by two- to eightfold with variants of concern and assuming no changes in the pattern of contacts across variants, the model predicts that larger viral load levels could lead to a relative increase in the probability of transmission of 24% to 58% in household contacts, and of 15% to 39% in non-household contacts.
Despite several clinical trials implemented, no antiviral drug could demonstrate efficacy against Ebola virus. In non-human primates, early initiation of polymerase inhibitors favipiravir and ...remdesivir improves survival, but whether they could be effective in patients is unknown. Here we analyze the impact of antiviral therapy by using a mathematical model that integrates virological and immunological data of 44 cynomolgus macaques, left untreated or treated with favipiravir. We estimate that favipiravir has a ~50% efficacy in blocking viral production, which results in reducing virus growth and cytokine storm while IFNα reduces cell susceptibility to infection. Simulating the effect of delayed initiations of treatment, our model predicts survival rates of 60% for favipiravir and 100% for remdesivir when treatment is initiated within 3 and 4 days post infection, respectively. These results improve the understanding of Ebola immuno-pathogenesis and can help optimize antiviral evaluation in future outbreaks.
Bulevirtide is a first-in-class entry inhibitor antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis D. The viral kinetics during bulevirtide therapy and the effect of combining bulevirtide with ...pegylated-interferon (Peg-IFN) are unknown.
We used mathematical modelling to analyze the viral kinetics in two French observational cohorts of 183 patients receiving bulevirtide with or without Peg-IFN for 48 weeks.
The efficacy of bulevirtide in blocking cell infection was estimated to 90.3%, whereas Peg-IFN blocked viral production with an efficacy of 92.4%, albeit with large inter-individual variabilities. The addition of Peg-IFN to bulevirtide was associated with a more rapid virological decline, with a rate of virological response (>2 log of decline or undetectability) at week 48 of 86.9% (95% prediction interval PI = 79.7–95.0), compared with 56.1% (95% PI = 46.4–66.7) with bulevirtide only. The model was also used to predict the probability to achieve a cure of viral infection, with a rate of 8.8% (95% PI = 3.5–13.2) with bulevirtide compared with 18.8% (95% PI = 11.6–29.0) with bulevirtide + Peg-IFN. Mathematical modelling suggests that after 144 weeks of treatment, the rates of viral cure could be 42.1% (95% PI = 33.3–52.6) with bulevirtide and 66.7% (95% PI = 56.5–76.8) with bulevirtide + Peg-IFN.
In this analysis of real-world data, Peg-IFN strongly enhanced the kinetics of viral decline in patients treated with bulevirtide. Randomized clinical trials are warranted to assess the virological and clinical benefit of this combination, and to identify predictors of poor response to treatment.
Bulevirtide has been approved for chronic HDV infection by regulatory agencies in Europe based on its good safety profile and rapid virological response after treatment initiation, but the optimal duration of treatment and the chance to achieve a sustained virological response remain unknown. The results presented in this study have a high impact for clinicians and investigators as they provide important knowledge on the long-term virological benefits of a combination of Peg-IFN and bulevirtide in patients with CHD. Clinical trials are now warranted to confirm those predictions.
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•The use of mathematical models shows that bulevirtide effectively blocks cell infection, albeit with large inter-patient variability.•The addition of Peg-IFN to bulevirtide strongly enhances viral kinetics.•HDV cure is predicted to be more frequent with a combination of bulevirtide and Peg-IFN.•The benefit of the addition of Peg-IFN tends to be lower after the first year.
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