The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species, a species extinction risk assessment tool, has been guiding conservation efforts for over 5 decades. It is ...widely assumed to have been instrumental in preventing species from moving closer to extinction and driving recoveries. However, the impact of the IUCN Red List in guiding conservation has not been evaluated. We conducted, transcribed, and coded interviews with experts who use the IUCN Red List across a range of sectors to understand how the list is used in conservation. We developed a theory of change to illustrate how and why change is expected to occur along causal pathways contributing to the long‐term goal of the IUCN Red List and an evaluation framework with indicators for measuring the impact of the IUCN Red List in generating scientific knowledge, raising awareness among stakeholders, designating priority conservation sites, allocating funding and resources, influencing development of legislation and policy, and guiding targeted conservation action (key themes). Red‐list assessments were the primary input leading to outputs (scientific knowledge, raised awareness), outcomes (better informed priority setting, access to funding and resource availability, improved legislation and policy), and impact (implemented conservation action leading to positive change) that have resulted in achievement of IUCN Red List goals. To explore feasibility of attributing the difference made by the IUCN Red List across themes, we studied increased scientific knowledge, raised awareness, access to funding and resource allocation, and increased conservation activity. The feasibility exploration showed increased scientific knowledge over time identified through positive trends in publications referring to the IUCN Red List in the literature; raised awareness of the list following high IUCN activity identified by peaks in online search activity; an increased proportion of conservation funding bodies requesting IUCN Red List status in the application process; and, based on interviews with Amphibian Specialist Group members, red‐list assessments were essential in connecting relevant stakeholders and ensuring conservation action. Although we identified the IUCN Red List as a vital tool in global conservation efforts, it was challenging to measure specific impacts because of its ubiquitous nature. We are the first to identify the influence of the IUCN Red List on conservation.
Un Marco de Referencia para la Evaluación del Impacto de la Lista Roja de Especies Amenazadas de la UICN
Resumen
La Lista Roja de Especies Amenazadas de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN), una herramienta para la valoración del riesgo de extinción de las especies ha guiado los esfuerzos de conservación durante más de cinco décadas. A partir de esto, se ha asumido como generalidad que la lista ha sido determinante para prevenir que las especies se acerquen más a la extinción y para impulsar la recuperación de especies. Sin embargo, todavía no se ha evaluado el impacto que la Lista Roja de la UICN ha tenido en las directrices de la conservación. Realizamos, transcribimos y codificamos entrevistas con expertos que usan la Lista Roja de la UICN en una gama de sectores para así entender cómo se usa la lista para la conservación. Desarrollamos una teoría de cambio para ilustrar cómo y por qué se espera que ocurra un cambio en Atorno a las vías causales que contribuyen al objetivo de largo plazo que tiene la Lista Roja de la UICN. También formulamos un marco de trabajo con los indicadores necesarios para evaluar el impacto que tiene la Lista Roja de la UICN en la generación de conocimiento científico, la creación de conciencia entre los actores sociales, la designación de sitios prioritarios para la conservación, la asignación de fondos y recursos, la influencia sobre el desarrollo de la legislación y de las políticas, y la orientación de acciones de conservación enfocadas (temas clave). Las evaluaciones de la lista roja fueron los aportadores principales que derivaron en resultados (conocimiento científico, creación de conciencia), consecuencias (establecimiento de prioridades mejor informadas, acceso a financiamiento y disponibilidad de recursos, mejorías en la legislación y en la política) e impactos (acciones implementadas de conservación que derivaron en cambios positivos) que han resultado en la obtención de objetivos de la Lista Roja de la UICN. Para explorar la viabilidad de la atribución de la diferencia que genera la Lista Roja de la UICN en todos los temas clave estudiamos el incremento en el conocimiento científico, la conciencia generada, el acceso a financiamientos y la asignación de recursos, y el crecimiento en las acciones de conservación. Esta exploración de la viabilidad mostró un incremento con el tiempo del conocimiento científico, identificado por medio de tendencias positivas en las publicaciones de la literatura referidas a la Lista Roja de la UICN. También mostró una mayor conciencia por la lista tras una alta actividad de la UICN, la cual identificamos por medio de picos en la actividad de búsqueda en línea. Finalmente, la exploración arrojó una proporción crecida de organizaciones de financiamiento para la conservación que solicitaron el estado de la especie en la Lista Roja de la UICN durante el proceso de aplicación y, con base en entrevistas realizadas a miembros del Grupo Especialista en Anfibios, que las valoraciones de la lista roja fueron esenciales para conectar entre sí a los actores relevantes y para asegurar las acciones de conservación. Aunque identificamos que la Lista Roja de la UICN es una herramienta vital para los esfuerzos mundiales de conservación, fue todo un reto medir los impactos específicos debido a su naturaleza ubicua. Somos los primeros en identificar la influencia que tiene la Lista Roja de la UICN sobre la conservación.
摘要
《国际自然保护联盟 (IUCN) 濒危物种红色名录》是一项物种灭绝风险评估工具, 在半个世纪以来指导着保护工作。虽然人们普遍认为它在防止物种走向灭绝和促进物种恢复中发挥着重要作用, 但对于其在指导生物多样性保护中的影响却从未有过评估。我们对多个行业部门使用 IUCN 红色名录的专家进行了访谈, 记录内容并数字化分析, 以探究物种名录在保护中是如何被使用的。我们还提出了一个变化理论来阐述通过因果联系影响 IUCN 红色名录长期目标的变化发生背后的机制和理由, 并设计了一个评估框架, 通过指标衡量 IUCN 红色名录在积累科学知识、提升利益相关者保护意识、确定优先保护位点、分配资金和资源、影响法律和政策制定, 以及指导有针对性的保护行动 (关键主题) 中起到的作用。红色名录评估是导致产出 (科学知识、保护意识) 、结果 (更好地确定优先保护地区、获得资金和资源、改进立法和政策) 和影响 (促成积极变化的保护行动实施) 的主要投入, 它可以帮助实现 IUCN 红色名录目标。为了探索 IUCN 红色名录不同主题差异来源的可能性, 我们进一步分析了科学知识积累、保护意识提升、资金获得及资源分配, 以及保护行动的增加。结果表明, 随着时间推移, 已发表文献对 IUCN 红色名录的引用呈增长趋势, 科学知识也在不断积累; IUCN 行动后相关在线搜索量急剧增加, 说明人们对其认识有所提升; 越来越高比例的保护资助机构在资金申请过程中要求使用 IUCN 红色名录濒危等级; 此外, 两栖动物专家小组成员也在采访中指出, 红色名录评估对沟通利益相关者和保障保护行动的实施至关重要。虽然本研究肯定了 IUCN 红色名录是全球保护工作的重要工具, 但由于应用十分普遍, 难以衡量具体的影响。本研究是首个确定 IUCN 红色名录对保护影响的工作。【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】
Article impact statement: The IUCN Red List has direct and indirect impact on conservation practice; the extent of its influence should be better recognized.
Stopping declines in biodiversity is critically important, but it is only a first step toward achieving more ambitious conservation goals. The absence of an objective and practical definition of ...species recovery that is applicable across taxonomic groups leads to inconsistent targets in recovery plans and frustrates reporting and maximization of conservation impact. We devised a framework for comprehensively assessing species recovery and conservation success. We propose a definition of a fully recovered species that emphasizes viability, ecological functionality, and representation; and use counterfactual approaches to quantify degree of recovery. This allowed us to calculate a set of 4 conservation metrics that demonstrate impacts of conservation efforts to date (conservation legacy); identify dependence of a species on conservation actions (conservation dependence); quantify expected gains resulting from conservation action in the medium term (conservation gain); and specify requirements to achieve maximum plausible recovery over the long term (recovery potential). These metrics can incentivize the establishment and achievement of ambitious conservation targets. We illustrate their use by applying the framework to a vertebrate, an invertebrate, and a woody and an herbaceous plant. Our approach is a preliminary framework for an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Green List of Species, which was mandated by a resolution of IUCN members in 2012. Although there are several challenges in applying our proposed framework to a wide range of species, we believe its further development, implementation, and integration with the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species will help catalyze a positive and ambitious vision for conservation that will drive sustained conservation action. Detener la disminución de la biodiversidad es fundamental, pero es tan solo un primer paso para alcanzar metas de conservación más ambiciosas. La falta de un objetivo y una definición práctica de recuperación de las especies que sea aplicable en grupos taxonómicos causa que los objetivos de los planes de recuperación sean inconsistentes y frustra la posibilidad de informar y maximizar su impacto en la conservación. Hemos ideado un marco para evaluar exhaustivamente la recuperación de las especies y el éxito de conservación. Proponemos una definición de especies completamente recuperadas, el cual enfatiza la viabilidad, la funcionalidad ecológica y la representación y utiliza enfoques contrafactuales para calcular el grado de recuperación. Esto nos permite calcular un conjunto de 4 medidas de conservación que demuestran los impactos de los esfuerzos de conservad ón hasta la fecha (legado de conservación); identifica la dependencia de una especie a las acciones de conservación (dependencia de conservación); calcula las ganancias esperadas a mediano plazo de una acción de conservación (ganancia de conservación) y los requisitos específicos para alcanzar la máxima recuperación posible a largo plazo (potencial de recuperación). Estas medidas pueden incentivar el establecimiento y logro de objetivos ambiciosos de conservación. Ilustramos el uso del marco aplicándolo en un vertebrado, un invertebrado, una planta leñosa y una planta herbácea. Nuestro enfoque representa un marco preliminar para la creación de una Lista Verde Especies de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN), la cual fue ordenada por una resolución de los miembros de la mencionada institución en el 2012. A pesar de que existen varias dificultades para aplicar el marco propuesto en un grupo amplio de especies, creemos que continuar su desarrollo, implementación e integración con la Lista Roja de Especies Amenazadas de la UICN contribuirá a catalizar una visión positiva y ambiciosa de conservación que conducirá a una acción de conservación sostenida. 阻止生物多祥性的減少十分重要，但这仅仅是实现更远大保护目标的第一歩。由于对“物种恢复”的概念 缺少ー个客观实际、适用于各种类群生物的定义，致使恢复计划目标不一致，并且也阻碍了对保护影响力的报告 和最大化。因此，我们设计了一个综合评估物种恢复和保护成功的框架。我们提出了“完全恢复” 物种的定义， 这个定义强调物种的生存能力、生态功能和代表性，我们还运用反事实分析法来量化物种恢复的程度。我们可 以计算这样四个保护指标，包括分析至今为止保护行动的影响カ(保护遗产) 、确定物种对保护行动的依赖性 (保护依赖1É )、量化保护行动在中期的预期目标(保护成效) ，以及指明远期要实现最大可能恢复所需条件(恢 复潜力) 。这些指标可以刺激宏远保护目标的建立和实现。我们将此框架分別用于ー种脊椎动物、无脊椎动 物、木本植物和草本植物, 以说明这些指标的用法。我们提出的方法是〈く世界自然保护联盟物种绿色名录》的 ー个初步框架，这是由IUCN成员在2012年的ー项决议授权下进行的。虽然这个框架在不同物种中大范围的 应用还面临ー些挑战，但我们相信它在未来的发展、实施并与《IUCN受威胁物种红色名录》的整合，可以帮助 催生出ー个积极远大的保护蓝图，以驱动持续的保护行动。
The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species was increasingly used during the 1980s to assess the conservation status of species for policy and planning ...purposes. This use stimulated the development of a new set of quantitative criteria for listing species in the categories of threat: critically endangered, endangered, and vulnerable. These criteria, which were intended to be applicable to all species except microorganisms, were part of a broader system for classifying threatened species and were fully implemented by IUCN in 2000. The system and the criteria have been widely used by conservation practitioners and scientists and now underpin one indicator being used to assess the Convention on Biological Diversity 2010 biodiversity target. We describe the process and the technical background to the IUCN Red List system. The criteria refer to fundamental biological processes underlying population decline and extinction. But given major differences between species, the threatening processes affecting them, and the paucity of knowledge relating to most species, the IUCN system had to be both broad and flexible to be applicable to the majority of described species. The system was designed to measure the symptoms of extinction risk, and uses 5 independent criteria relating to aspects of population loss and decline of range size. A species is assigned to a threat category if it meets the quantitative threshold for at least one criterion. The criteria and the accompanying rules and guidelines used by IUCN are intended to increase the consistency, transparency, and validity of its categorization system, but it necessitates some compromises that affect the applicability of the system and the species lists that result. In particular, choices were made over the assessment of uncertainty, poorly known species, depleted species, population decline, restricted ranges, and rarity; all of these affect the way red lists should be viewed and used. Processes related to priority setting and the development of national red lists need to take account of some assumptions in the formulation of the criteria. /// La Lista Roja de Especies Amenazadas de la UICN (Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza) fue muy utilizada durante la década de 1980 para evaluar el estatus de conservación de especies para fines políticos y de planificación. Este uso estimuló el desarrollo de un conjunto nuevo de criterios cuantitativos para enlistar especies en las categorías de amenaza: en peligro crítico, en peligro y vulnerable. Estos criterios, que se pretendía fueran aplicables a todas las especies excepto microorganismos, eran parte de un sistema general para clasificar especies amenazadas y fueron implementadas completamente por la UICN en 2000. El sistema y los criterios han sido ampliamente utilizados por practicantes y científicos de la conservación y actualmente apuntalan un indicador utilizado para evaluar el objetivo al 2010 de la Convención de Diversidad Biológica. Describimos el proceso y el respaldo técnico del sistema de la Lista Roja de la IUCN. Los criterios se refieren a los procesos biológicos fundamentales que subyacen en la declinación y extinción de una población. Pero, debido a diferencias mayores entre especies, los procesos de amenaza que los afectan y la escasez de conocimiento sobre la mayoría de las especies, el sistema de la UICN tenía que ser amplio y flexible para ser aplicable a la mayoría de las especies descritas. El sistema fue diseñado para medir los síntomas del riesgo de extinción, y utiliza cinco criterios independientes que relacionan aspectos de la pérdida poblacional y la declinación del rango de distribución. Una especie es asignada a una categoría de amenaza si cumple el umbral cuantitativo por lo menos para un criterio. Los criterios, las reglas acompañantes y las directrices utilizadas por la UICN tienen la intención de incrementar la consistencia, transparencia y validez de su sistema de clasificación, pero requiere algunos compromisos que afectan la aplicabilidad del sistema y las listas de especies que resultan. En particular, se hicieron selecciones por encima de la evaluación de incertidumbre, especies poco conocidas, especies disminuidas, declinación poblacional, rangos restringidos y rareza; todas estas afectan la forma en que las listas rojas deberían ser vistas y usadas. Los procesos relacionados con la definición de prioridades y el desarrollo de las listas rojas nacionales necesitan considerar algunos de los supuestos en la formulación de los criterios.
Governments have committed to conserving ≥17% of terrestrial and ≥10% of marine environments globally, especially “areas of particular importance for biodiversity” through “ecologically ...representative” Protected Area (PA) systems or other “area‐based conservation measures”, while individual countries have committed to conserve 3–50% of their land area. We estimate that PAs currently cover 14.6% of terrestrial and 2.8% of marine extent, but 59–68% of ecoregions, 77–78% of important sites for biodiversity, and 57% of 25,380 species have inadequate coverage. The existing 19.7 million km² terrestrial PA network needs only 3.3 million km² to be added to achieve 17% terrestrial coverage. However, it would require nearly doubling to achieve, cost‐efficiently, coverage targets for all countries, ecoregions, important sites, and species. Poorer countries have the largest relative shortfalls. Such extensive and rapid expansion of formal PAs is unlikely to be achievable. Greater focus is therefore needed on alternative approaches, including community‐ and privately managed sites and other effective area‐based conservation measures.
An essential foundation of any science is a standard lexicon. Any given conservation project can be described in terms of the biodiversity targets, direct threats, contributing factors at the project ...site, and the conservation actions that the project team is employing to change the situation. These common elements can be linked in a causal chain, which represents a theory of change about how the conservation actions are intended to bring about desired project outcomes. If project teams want to describe and share their work and learn from one another, they need a standard and precise lexicon to specifically describe each node along this chain. To date, there have been several independent efforts to develop standard classifications for the direct threats that affect biodiversity and the conservation actions required to counteract these threats. Recognizing that it is far more effective to have only one accepted global scheme, we merged these separate efforts into unified classifications of threats and actions, which we present here. Each classification is a hierarchical listing of terms and associated definitions. The classifications are comprehensive and exclusive at the upper levels of the hierarchy, expandable at the lower levels, and simple, consistent, and scalable at all levels. We tested these classifications by applying them post hoc to 1191 threatened bird species and 737 conservation projects. Almost all threats and actions could be assigned to the new classification systems, save for some cases lacking detailed information. Furthermore, the new classification systems provided an improved way of analyzing and comparing information across projects when compared with earlier systems. We believe that widespread adoption of these classifications will help practitioners more systematically identify threats and appropriate actions, managers to more efficiently set priorities and allocate resources, and most important, facilitate cross-project learning and the development of a systematic science of conservation.
Unsustainable exploitation of wild species represents a serious threat to biodiversity and to the livelihoods of local communities and Indigenous peoples. However, managed, sustainable use has the ...potential to forestall extinctions, aid recovery, and meet human needs. We analyzed species‐level data for 30,923 species from 13 taxonomic groups on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species to investigate patterns of intentional biological resource use. Forty percent of species (10,098 of 25,009 species from 10 data‐sufficient taxonomic groups) were used. The main purposes of use were pets, display animals, horticulture, and human consumption. Intentional use is currently contributing to elevated extinction risk for 28–29% of threatened or near threatened (NT) species (2752–2848 of 9753 species). Intentional use also affected 16% of all species used (1597–1631 of 10,098). However, 72% of used species (7291 of 10,098) were least concern, of which nearly half (3469) also had stable or improving population trends. The remainder were not documented as threatened by biological resource use, including at least 172 threatened or NT species with stable or improving populations. About one‐third of species that had use documented as a threat had no targeted species management actions to directly address this threat. To improve use‐related red‐list data, we suggest small amendments to the relevant classification schemes and required supporting documentation. Our findings on the prevalence of sustainable and unsustainable use, and variation across taxa, can inform international policy making, including the Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, the Convention on Biological Diversity, and the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species.
Predominio del Uso Sustentable y No Sustentable de Especies Silvestres Inferido a partir de la Lista Roja de Especies Amenazadas de la UICN
Resumen
La explotación insostenible de especies silvestres representa una verdadera amenaza para la biodiversidad y el sustento de las comunidades locales y los pueblos indígenas. Sin embargo, el uso sostenible gestionado tiene el potencial para prevenir extinciones, auxiliar en la recuperación y satisfacer las necesidades humanas. Analizamos los datos a nivel de especie correspondientes a 30,923 especies de 13 grupos taxonómicos localizados en la Lista Roja de Especies Amenazadas de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN) para investigar los patrones del uso intencional de recursos biológicos. Usamos el 40% de las especies analizadas (10,098 de 25,009 especies pertenecientes a diez grupos taxonómicos con suficiente información). Los principales motivos para el uso de vida silvestre fueron como mascotas, animales de exhibición, horticultura y consumo humano. El uso intencional está actualmente contribuyendo a un riesgo elevado de extinción para 28 ‐ 29% de las especies amenazadas o casi amenazadas (NT) (2,752 ‐ 2,848 de 9,753 especies). El uso intencional también afectó al 16% de todas las especies utilizadas (1,597 ‐ 1,631 de 10,098). Sin embargo, el 72% de las especies utilizadas (7,291 de 10, 098) pertenecen a la categoría de preocupación menor, de las cuales casi la mitad (3,469) también contaban con tendencias poblacionales estables o de mejoría. Las especies restantes no estaban documentadas como amenazadas por el uso de recursos biológicos, incluyendo al menos 172 especies amenazadas o NT con poblaciones estables o en aumento. Casi un tercio de las especies que tienen documentado el uso como una amenaza no cuentan con acciones de manejo para abordar directamente esta amenaza. Para mejorar la información de la lista roja relacionada con el uso, sugerimos pequeñas modificaciones a los esquemas relevantes de clasificación y la documentación de apoyo requerida. Nuestros descubrimientos sobre el predominio del uso sustentable y no sustentable, y la variación entre taxones, puede orientar la formulación de políticas internacionales, incluyendo a la Plataforma Intergubernamental de Políticas Científicas sobre Biodiversidad y Servicios Ecosistémicos, el Convenio sobre la Diversidad Biológica y la Convención sobre el Comercio Internacional de Especies Amenazadas.
Article impact statement: Of 10,098 species on the IUCN Red List that are harvested, use is likely biologically unsustainable for 16% and sustainable for 34%.
The scale and drivers of marine biodiversity loss are being revealed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessment process. We present the first global reassessment ...of 1,199 species in Class Chondrichthyes—sharks, rays, and chimeras. The first global assessment (in 2014) concluded that one-quarter (24%) of species were threatened. Now, 391 (32.6%) species are threatened with extinction. When this percentage of threat is applied to Data Deficient species, more than one-third (37.5%) of chondrichthyans are estimated to be threatened, with much of this change resulting from new information. Three species are Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct), representing possibly the first global marine fish extinctions due to overfishing. Consequently, the chondrichthyan extinction rate is potentially 25 extinctions per million species years, comparable to that of terrestrial vertebrates. Overfishing is the universal threat affecting all 391 threatened species and is the sole threat for 67.3% of species and interacts with three other threats for the remaining third: loss and degradation of habitat (31.2% of threatened species), climate change (10.2%), and pollution (6.9%). Species are disproportionately threatened in tropical and subtropical coastal waters. Science-based limits on fishing, effective marine protected areas, and approaches that reduce or eliminate fishing mortality are urgently needed to minimize mortality of threatened species and ensure sustainable catch and trade of others. Immediate action is essential to prevent further extinctions and protect the potential for food security and ecosystem functions provided by this iconic lineage of predators.
Display omitted
•More than one-third of chondrichthyan fish species are threatened by overfishing•Disproportionate threat in tropics risk loss of ecosystem functions and services•Three species not seen in >80 years are Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct)•The depletion of these species has been driven by continuing demand for human food
The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species is increasingly used to reveal the health of ocean biodiversity. Dulvy et al. assess 1,199 chondrichthyans and demonstrate the need for fishing limits on target and incidental catch and spatial protection to avoid further extinctions and allow for food security and ecosystem functions.
The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species includes assessment of extinction risk for 98 512 species, plus documentation of their range, habitat, ...elevation, and other factors. These range, habitat and elevation data can be matched with terrestrial land cover and elevation datasets to map the species’ area of habitat (AOH; also known as extent of suitable habitat; ESH). This differs from the two spatial metrics used for assessing extinction risk in the IUCN Red List criteria: extent of occurrence (EOO) and area of occupancy (AOO). AOH can guide conservation, for example, through targeting areas for field surveys, assessing proportions of species’ habitat within protected areas, and monitoring habitat loss and fragmentation. We recommend that IUCN Red List assessments document AOH wherever practical.
The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species assesses the extinction risk of nearly 100 000 species, including documentation of a range map, habitat, and elevation data for each species.Numerous recent studies have matched these habitat and elevation data with remotely sensed land cover and elevation datasets to map AOH (also known as extent of suitable habitat) within the range of each species.AOH differs from the two spatial metrics used in the IUCN Red List criteria for extinction risk assessment: EOO (minimum convex polygon around all present native occurrences of a species); and AOO (area actually occupied by a species).AOH can be of value in locating target areas for species-specific field surveys, assessing the proportion of a species’ habitat within protected areas, and monitoring habitat loss and fragmentation.
In 2010, Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) adopted the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020 to address the loss and degradation of nature. Subsequently, most biodiversity ...indicators continued to decline. Nevertheless, conservation actions can make a positive difference for biodiversity. The emerging Post‐2020 Global Biodiversity Framework has potential to catalyze efforts to “bend the curve” of biodiversity loss. Thus, the inclusion of a goal on species, articulated as Goal B in the Zero Draft of the Post‐2020 Framework, is essential. However, as currently formulated, this goal is inadequate for preventing extinctions, and reversing population declines; both of which are required to achieve the CBD's 2030 Mission. We contend it is unacceptable that Goal B could be met while most threatened species deteriorated in status and many avoidable species extinctions occurred. We examine the limitations of the current wording and propose an articulation with robust scientific basis. A goal for species that strives to end extinctions and recover populations of all species that have experienced population declines, and especially those at risk of extinction, would help to align actors toward the transformative actions and interventions needed for humans to live in harmony with nature.
Given the current biodiversity crisis, pragmatic approaches to detect global conservation trends across a broad range of taxa are critical. A sampled approach to the Red List Index (RLI) was ...proposed, as many groups are highly speciose. However, a decade after its conception, the recommended 900 species sample has only been implemented in six groups and trend data are available for none, potentially because this sample is unfeasibly high.
Using a broader set of all available data we show that when re‐assessments are conducted every 10 years, 200 species (400 in some cases) should be sufficient to detect a RLI trend. Correctly detecting changes in slope still requires samples of 900 species (11,000 in some cases).
Sampled assessments can accelerate biodiversity monitoring and complement current metrics, but the time‐period between assessments and the approaches’ purpose should be carefully considered, as there is a trade‐off between sample size and the resulting indices.
PDF
