This article summarises the results of 49 studies that together test the significance of 115 characteristics in 7 biological groups: birds, finfish, insects, mammals, plants, reptiles/amphibians and ...shellfish. Climate/habitat match, history of invasive success and number of arriving/released individuals are associated with establishment success in at least four independent data sets, both within and across biological groups, and none are contraindicated by other studies. In the introduced-invasive control group, two species level characteristics--taxon and geographic range size--were significantly associated with establishment success across two biological groups. These characteristics, however, were not supported by independent data sets, or were contraindicated by these data sets, within the biological groups examined here. In the introduced-native control group, three species level characteristics--geographic range size, leaf surface area and fertilisation system (monoecious, hermaphroditic or dioecious)--were consistently supported within plants but were either not supported by independent data sets or contraindicated by datasets within or across other biological groups. Climate/habitat match is the only characteristic that is consistently significantly associated with invasive behaviour (in this case exotic range size) across biological groups. This finding, however, is not supported by two or more independent data sets within any of the biological groups examined here. Within plants there are a suite of characteristics, predominately associated with reproduction, that are significantly associated with a range of invasion metrics, predominately abundance in the invaded range. None of these characteristics, however, are supported across any other biological groups. We note the confounding effects of phylogeny, residence time and propagule pressure and suggest that site- and taxa-specific analysis will provide further useful insights.
The crown-of-thorns starfish Acanthaster planci (COTS) has contributed greatly to declines in coral cover on Australia's Great Barrier Reef, and remains one of the major acute disturbances on ...Indo-Pacific coral reefs. Despite uncertainty about the underlying causes of outbreaks and the management responses that might address them, few studies have critically and directly compared competing hypotheses. This study uses qualitative modelling to compare hypotheses relating to outbreak initiation, explicitly considering the potential role of positive feedbacks, elevated nutrients, and removal of starfish predators by fishing. When nutrients and fishing are considered in isolation, the models indicate that a range of alternative hypotheses are capable of explaining outbreak initiation with similar levels of certainty. The models also suggest that outbreaks may be caused by multiple factors operating simultaneously, rather than by single proximal causes. As the complexity and realism of the models increased, the certainty of outcomes decreased, but key areas that require further research to improve the structure of the models were identified. Nutrient additions were likely to result in outbreaks only when COTS larvae alone benefitted from nutrients. Similarly, the effects of fishing on the decline of corals depended on the complexity of interactions among several categories of fishes. Our work suggests that management approaches which seek to be robust to model structure uncertainty should allow for multiple potential causes of outbreaks. Monitoring programs can provide tests of alternative potential causes of outbreaks if they specifically monitor all key taxa at reefs that are exposed to appropriate combinations of potential causal factors.
The Ecological Society of America has evaluated current U.S. national policies and practices on biological invasions in light of current scientific knowledge. Invasions by harmful nonnative species ...are increasing in number and area affected; the damages to ecosystems, economic activity, and human welfare are accumulating. Without improved strategies based on recent scientific advances and increased investments to counter invasions, harm from invasive species is likely to accelerate. Federal leadership, with the cooperation of state and local governments, is required to increase the effectiveness of prevention of invasions, detect and respond quickly to new potentially harmful invasions, control and slow the spread of existing invasions, and provide a national center to ensure that these efforts are coordinated and cost effective. Specifically, the Ecological Society of America recommends that the federal government take the following six actions: (1) Use new information and practices to better manage commercial and other pathways to reduce the transport and release of potentially harmful species; (2) Adopt more quantitative procedures for risk analysis and apply them to every species proposed for importation into the country; (3) Use new cost-effective diagnostic technologies to increase active surveillance and sharing of information about invasive species so that responses to new invasions can be more rapid and effective; (4) Create new legal authority and provide emergency funding to support rapid responses to emerging invasions; (5) Provide funding and incentives for cost-effective programs to slow the spread of existing invasive species in order to protect still uninvaded ecosystems, social and industrial infrastructure, and human welfare; and (6) Establish a National Center for Invasive Species Management (under the existing National Invasive Species Council) to coordinate and lead improvements in federal, state, and international policies on invasive species. Recent scientific and technical advances provide a sound basis for more cost-effective national responses to invasive species. Greater investments in improved technology and management practices would be more than repaid by reduced damages from current and future invasive species. The Ecological Society of America is committed to assist all levels of government and provide scientific advice to improve all aspects of invasive-species management.
Malaria is one of the deadliest vector-borne diseases in the world. Researchers are developing new genetic and conventional vector control strategies to attempt to limit its burden. Novel control ...strategies require detailed safety assessment to ensure responsible and successful deployments. Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.) and Anopheles coluzzii, two closely related subspecies within the species complex Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.), are among the dominant malaria vectors in sub-Saharan Africa. These two subspecies readily hybridise and compete in the wild and are also known to have distinct niches, each with spatially and temporally varying carrying capacities driven by precipitation and land use factors. We model the spread and persistence of a population-modifying gene drive system in these subspecies across sub-Saharan Africa by simulating introductions of genetically modified mosquitoes across the African mainland and its offshore islands. We explore transmission of the gene drive between the two subspecies that arise from different hybridisation mechanisms, the effects of both local dispersal and potential wind-aided migration to the spread, and the development of resistance to the gene drive. Given the best current available knowledge on the subspecies' life histories, we find that an introduced gene drive system with typical characteristics can plausibly spread from even distant offshore islands to the African mainland with the aid of wind-driven migration, with resistance beginning to take over within a decade. Our model accounts for regional to continental scale mechanisms, and demonstrates a range of realistic dynamics including the effect of prevailing wind on spread and spatio-temporally varying carrying capacities for subspecies. As a result, it is well-placed to answer future questions relating to mosquito gene drives as important life history parameters become better understood.
Efficient monitoring of organisms is at the foundation of protected area and biodiversity management. Such monitoring programs are based on a systematically selected set of survey locations that, ...while able to track trends at those locations through time, lack inference for the overall region being "monitored". Advances in spatially-balanced sampling approaches offer alternatives but remain largely untested in marine ecosystems. This study evaluated the merit of using a two-stage, spatially-balanced survey framework, in conjunction with generalized additive models, to estimate epifauna cover at a reef-wide scale for mesophotic reefs within a large, cross-shelf marine park. Imagery acquired by an autonomous underwater vehicle was classified using a hierarchical scheme developed under the Collaborative and Automated Tools for Analysis of Marine Imagery (CATAMI). At a realistic image subsampling intensity, the two-stage, spatially-balanced framework provided accurate and precise estimates of reef-wide cover for a select number of epifaunal classes at the coarsest CATAMI levels, in particular bryozoan and porifera classes. However, at finer hierarchical levels, accuracy and/or precision of cover estimates declined, primarily because of the natural rarity of even the most common of these classes/morphospecies. Ranked predictor importance suggested that bathymetry, backscatter and derivative terrain variables calculated at their smallest analysis window scales (i.e. 81 m2) were generally the most important variables in the modeling of reef-wide cover. This study makes an important step in identifying the constraints and limitations that can be identified through a robust statistical approach to design and analysis. The two-stage, spatially-balanced framework has great potential for effective quantification of epifaunal cover in cross-shelf mesophotic reefs. However, greater image subsampling intensity than traditionally applied is required to ensure adequate observations for finer-level CATAMI classes and associated morphospecies.
Recent advances in gene‐editing technologies have opened new avenues for genetic pest control strategies, in particular around the use of gene drives to suppress or modify pest populations. ...Significant uncertainty, however, surrounds the applicability of these strategies to novel target species, their efficacy in natural populations and their eventual safety and acceptability as control methods. In this article, we identify issues associated with the potential use of gene drives in agricultural systems, to control pests and diseases that impose a significant cost to agriculture around the world. We first review the need for innovative approaches and provide an overview of the most relevant biological and ecological traits of agricultural pests that could impact the outcome of gene drive approaches. We then describe the specific challenges associated with using gene drives in agricultural systems, as well as the opportunities that these environments may offer, focusing in particular on the advantages of high‐threshold gene drives. Overall, we aim to provide a comprehensive view of the potential opportunities and the remaining uncertainties around the use of gene drives in agricultural systems.
A sizable fraction of colorectal cancer (CRC) is expected to be explained by heritable factors, with heritability estimates ranging from 12 to 35% twin and family studies. Genome-wide association ...studies (GWAS) have successfully identified a number of common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with CRC risk. Although it has been shown that these CRC susceptibility SNPs only explain a small proportion of the genetic risk, it is not clear how much of the heritability these SNPs explain and how much is left to be detected by other, yet to be identified, common SNPs. Therefore, we estimated the heritability of CRC under different scenarios using Genome-Wide Complex Trait Analysis in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium including 8025 cases and 10 814 controls. We estimated that the heritability explained by known common CRC SNPs identified in GWAS was 0.65% (95% CI:0.3-1%; P = 1.11 × 10-16), whereas the heritability explained by all common SNPs was at least 7.42% (95% CI: 4.71-10.12%; P = 8.13 × 10(-8)), suggesting that many common variants associated with CRC risk remain to be detected. Comparing the heritability explained by the common variants with that from twin and family studies, a fraction of the heritability may be explained by other genetic variants, such as rare variants. In addition, our analysis showed that the gene × smoking interaction explained a significant proportion of the CRC variance (P = 1.26 × 10(-2)). In summary, our results suggest that known CRC SNPs only explain a small proportion of the heritability and more common SNPs have yet to be identified.
Natural killer (NK) cells play a critical role in virus control. However, it has remained largely unclear whether NK cell mobilization in SARS-CoV-2 infections is beneficial or pathologic. To address ...this deficit, we employed a validated experimental NK cell depletion non-human primate (NHP) model with SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant B.1.617.2 challenge. Viral loads (VL), NK cell numbers, activation, proliferation, and functional measures were evaluated in blood and tissues. In non-depleted (control) animals, infection rapidly induced NK cell expansion, activation, and increased tissue trafficking associated with VL. Strikingly, we report that experimental NK cell depletion leads to higher VL, longer duration of viral shedding, significantly increased levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines in the lungs, and overt lung damage. Overall, we find the first significant and conclusive evidence for NK cell-mediated control of SARS-CoV-2 virus replication and disease pathology. These data indicate that adjunct therapies for infection could largely benefit from NK cell-targeted approaches.
Gene drive systems promote the spread of genetic elements through populations by assuring they are inherited more often than Mendelian segregation would predict (see the figure). Natural examples of ...gene drive from Drosophila include sex-ratio meiotic drive, segregation distortion, and replicative transposition. Synthetic drive systems based on selective embryonic lethality or homing endonucleases have been described previously in Drosophila melanogaster (1-3), but they are difficult to build or are limited to transgenic populations. In contrast, RNAguided gene drives based on the CRISPR/Cas9 nuclease can, in principle, be constructed by any laboratory capable of making transgenic organisms (4). They have tremendous potential to address global problems in health, agriculture, and conservation, but their capacity to alter wild populations outside the laboratory demands caution (4-7). Just as researchers working with self-propagating pathogens must ensure that these agents do not escape to the outside world, scientists working in the laboratory with gene drive constructs are responsible for keeping them confined (4, 6, 7).
Reproductive containment provides an opportunity to implement a staged-release strategy for genetic control of malaria vectors, in particular allowing predictions about the spread and persistence of ...(self-limiting) sterile and male-biased strains to be compared to outcomes before moving to (self-sustaining) gene-drive strains.
In this study, we: (i) describe a diffusion-advection-reaction model of the spread and persistence of a single cohort of male mosquitoes; (ii) elicit informative prior distributions for model parameters, for wild-type (WT) and genetically modified dominant sterile strains (DSM); (iii) estimate posterior distributions for WT strains using data from published mark-recapture-release (MRR) experiments, with inference performed through the Delayed-Rejection Adaptive Metropolis algorithm; and (iv) weight prior distributions, in order to make predictions about genetically modified strains using Bayes factors calculated for the WT strains.
If a single cohort of 5000 genetically modified dominant sterile male mosquitoes are released at the same location as previous MRR experiments with their WT counterparts, there is a 90% probability that the expected number of released mosquitoes will fall to < 1 in 10 days, and that by 12 days there will be a 99% probability that no mosquitoes will be found more than 150 m from the release location.
Spread and persistence models should form a key component of risk assessments of novel genetic control strategies for malaria vectors. Our predictions, used in an independent risk assessment, suggest that genetically modified sterile male mosquitoes will remain within the locality of the release site, and that they will persist for a very limited amount of time. Data gathered following the release of these mosquitoes will enable us to test the accuracy of these predictions and also provide a means to update parameter distributions for genetic strains in a coherent (Bayesian) framework. We anticipate this will provide additional insights about how to conduct probabilistic risk assessments of stage-released genetically modified mosquitoes.
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