This paper deals with the global energy consumption to forecast future projections based on primary energy, global oil, coal and natural gas consumption using a hybrid Cuckoo optimization algorithm ...and information of British Petroleum Company plc and BP Amoco plc. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has some significant disadvantages, such as training slowly, easiness to fall into local optimal point, and sensitivity of the initial weights and bias. To overcome the shortcomings, an improved ANN structure, that is optimized by the Cuckoo Optimization Algorithm (COA), is proposed in this paper (COANN). The performance of the COANN is evaluated with Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Correlation Coefficient (CC) between the output of the model and the actual dataset. Finally, CO2 emission in the world by 2050 is forecasted using COANN. The findings showed that COANN is a helpful and reliable tool for monitoring global warming. This proposed method will assist experts, policy planners and researchers who study greenhouse gases.•The method can be used as a potential tool for policymakers and governments to make policy on global warming monitoring and control.•The proposed method can play a key role in the global climate changes policies and can have a significant impact on the efficiency or inefficiency of government's intervention policies.
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Pandemics are not new, but they continue to prevail in the last three decades. A variety of reasons such as globalization, trade growth, urbanization, human behavior change, and the rise of the ...prevalence of viral diseases among animals can account for this issue. Outbreaks of COVID-19 indicated that viral diseases have spread easily among nations, influencing their economic stability. In this vein, the motivation behind the present study was to get an understanding of the effect of the rise of the health disaster risk on the dynamics of Iran's macroeconomic variables by using Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium. As opposed to Computable General Equilibrium models, DSGE models can be evaluated in a stochastic environment. Since the duration of the virus outbreak and its effect on the economy is not known, it is more appropriate to use these models. The results demonstrated that increased health disaster risk has a remarkable negative effect on macroeconomic variables. According to the findings of the research and the significance of public vaccination as an essential solution for improving health status and quality of life, it was suggested that the government pave the path for the thriving of businesses and socio-economic activities as early as possible by employing specific policies such as tax exemption or budget allocation for vaccine manufacturing companies or importers.
Money demand is one of the most important economic variables which are a critical component in appointing and choosing appropriate monetary policy, because it determines the transmission of ...policy-driven change in monetary aggregates to the real sector. In this paper, the data of economic indicators in Iran are presented for estimating the money demand using biogeography-based optimization (BBO) algorithm, particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, and a new hybrid metaheuristic method based on biogeography-based optimization and particle swarm optimization algorithm (BBPSO). The data are used in two forms (i.e. linear and exponential) to estimate money demand values based on true liquidity, Consumer price index, GDP, lending interest rate, Inflation, and official exchange rate. The available data are partly used for finding optimal or near-optimal values of weighting parameters (1974–2013) and partly for testing the models (2014–2018). The performance of methods is evaluated using mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). According to the simulation results, the proposed method (i.e. BBPSO) outperformed the other models. The findings proved that the recommended method was an appropriate tool for effective money demand prediction in Iran. These data were the result of a comprehensive look at the most influential factors for money market demand. With this method, the demand side of this market was clearly defined. Along with other markets, the consequences of economic policy could be analyzed and predicted.
• The article provides a method for observing the effect of economic scenarios on the money market and the analysis obtained by this proposed method allows experts, public sector economics, and monetary economist to see a clearer explanation of the country's liquidity plan.
• The method presented in this article can be beneficial for the policy makers and monetary authorities during their decision-making process.
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PurposeThe main motivation of the present study is to understand the severity of the effect of health shock on Iran's oil economy and analyze the role of government under these ...conditions.Design/methodology/approachDynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models can show the precise interactions between market decision-makers in the context of general equilibrium. Since the duration of the virus outbreak and its effect on the economy is not known, it is more appropriate to use these models.FindingsThe results of the survey of hands-on policies scenarios compared to the state of hands-off policy indicate that the effect of government expending shocks on the economy under pandemic disease conditions has much less feedback on macroeconomic variables.Originality/valueAs a proposed policy, it is recommended that the government play a stabilizing role under pandemic disease conditions.Key messages There is no study regarding health shock and its economic effects in Iran using DSGE models. Also, in foreign studies, the health shock in an oil economy has not been modeled.The general idea in the present study is how the prevalence of a pandemic infectious disease affects the dynamics of macroeconomic variables.In three different scenarios, according to the persistence of health disaster risk and the deterioration rate of health capital due to this shock, the model is simulated.In modeling pandemic diseases, quarantine hours are considered as part of the total time of individuals.According to the research findings, it is recommended that the government, as a policy-maker, play a stabilizing role under pandemic crises conditions.
Natural gas consumption is rising rapidly around the world. Europe is likely to be turning to new sources of natural gas, and Iran as the world's largest holder of gas reserves could be one of its ...suppliers. This article proposes three routes for the transfer of Iranian gas to Europe through pipelines. The study uses three common ways for investigating the feasibility of infrastructure projects, including the net present value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Benefit-Cost Ratio. These criteria will be used for analyzing the economic feasibility of the transfer of Iranian natural gas to Europe via pipelines. With 5% discount rate and the average price of exported gas in all gas feedstock rate scenarios, different routes will be calculated on the basis of NPV and IRR. The results show that Turkey route has the highest Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return, and Iraq and Armenia routes have the next priorities.
•European Union natural gas is imported from four major natural gas supplier: Russia, Norway, Algeria and Nigeria.•However, Iran has no role in supplying gas for Europe.•In the price of the reference scenario in all scenarios of feedstock price, the project has economic value, and at the maximum price, the project in all scenario has economic value.•The results show that at 5% discount rate and average price of exported gas in all gas feedstock scenarios, the estimated routes based on different criteria, NPV and IRR, Turkey route has the highest Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return. Iraq and Armenia routes have the next priorities.
This study examined the effects of the real exchange rate and inflation uncertainty on the investment function of Tobin’s Q, in the period 2001-2010. To proceed, the data of 100 listed companies in ...the Tehran Stock Exchange were collected. The theoretical model were estimated by introducing the real exchange rate, and then, the inflation variable in the model. Exchange rate uncertainty was estimated by the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, and the interactive correlations of the model variables were investigated by the GMM method. The results showed that the effects of the real exchange rate and inflation uncertainty variables in Tobin’s Q investment function are negative and significant. Also, the first lag of investment, cash flow, Tobin's Q and its lag variables have positive and significant effects on investment, and that the lagged cash flow, and the lagged real exchange rate uncertainty and the lagged inflation have negative and significant effects on investment.
Granular residual is created in the banking network when there are a few large banks with many small banks. In this case, the effect of the shocks on each bank not lost in total that can lead to ...macro-economic consequences. The transmission of monetary policy through change in bank facilities is one of the key mechanisms affecting monetary policies. The power of transmission of monetary policy mechanism is highly dependent on the specific characteristics of the banking network. Thus, the importance of granular residual and considering it on transmission of monetary policy in the banking network is important. The purpose of the present study is the effect of granular residual in Iran's banking network on the transmission of monetary policy through lending channel. Indeed, the granular residual was imported in this study as a independent variable that can effect on bank facilities and lending channel. Therefore, in the present study, the balance sheet data of 32 banks from the banking network for the period 2001-2014 were used.Themodel used in this study was estimated through the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The results showed that in the first, according to available theories in relation to the granular residual and conducting relevant empirical analyses, the presence of granular residual in Iran's banking network is confirmed. Also as expected, granular residual has a positive and significant effect on Iran's banking network facilities and the transmission of monetary policy through lending channel is weakened by increasing the granular impacts.
In this paper, first, financial markets have been analyzed and then financial institutions in economy, in addition to industrial and mineral investments in developed and developing countries, ...specially Iran, have been compared. Using estimation method 3SLS, the selected model has been estimated. The model consists of a trilogy, the variable functions of which are private investment in the industry and mine sector, public investment in industry and mine sector and the amount of liquidity. Balance of bank credits to the none governmental sector, risk index, bank's credit rates, real exchange rate, inflation rate, domestic national product and governments indebtedness to commercial and specialized banks being the independent variables. According to the results of the research, the bank's interest rate creates no sensitivity in the investment of the private sector in industry and mine in Iran; but the balance of the banking credit to the none governmental sector in industry and mining sector has had a positive effect on the private investment in industry and mine.
The purpose of this paper is to answer the following question: Is estimate the price and income elasticites of the demand for health services in Iran elastic?. This researchWe use has used the ...Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model. AIDS model using the household expenditure data for the three subsections of medicine, user fees for doctors' and fees and hospitals ization services for three income groups for thein the period 1971 – 2001. One conclusion isOur results indicate that, the health services should be considered as aare necessity for all income groups. In this case, cross elasticities showed and that hygiene and/or mMedical services have complimentary relations with cloths and shelter. Price elasticitiesy of hospitalization for low, medium, and high income groups was are low: -0.52, -0.53 and -0.62, respectively. These results indicate of low elasticity of hospitalization services for all income groups and this issue Overall, we conclude that the confirms that elasticity for health services is low in Iran.
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