Although the intestinal microbiome has been increasingly implicated in autoimmune diseases, much is unknown about its roles in Multiple Sclerosis (MS). Our aim was to compare the microbiome between ...treatment-naïve MS subjects early in their disease course and controls, and between Caucasian (CA), Hispanic (HA), and African American (AA) MS subjects. From fecal samples, we performed 16S rRNA V4 sequencing and analysis from 45 MS subjects (15 CA, 16 HA, 14 AA) and 44 matched healthy controls, and whole metagenomic shotgun sequencing from 24 MS subjects (all newly diagnosed, treatment-naïve, and steroid-free) and 24 controls. In all three ethnic groups, there was an increased relative abundance of the same single genus, Clostridium, compared to ethnicity-matched controls. Analysis of microbiota networks showed significant changes in the network characteristics between combined MS cohorts and controls, suggesting global differences not restricted to individual taxa. Metagenomic analysis revealed significant enrichment of individual species within Clostridia as well as particular functional pathways in the MS subjects. The increased relative abundance of Clostridia in all three early MS cohorts compared to controls provides candidate taxa for further study as biomarkers or as etiologic agents in MS.
A Bayesian approach, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique, was applied to a newly developed large-scale crop model for paddy rice to optimize a new set of regional-specific parameters and ...quantify the uncertainty of yield estimation associated with model parameters. The developed large-scale model is process-based and up-scaled from a conventional field-scale model to meet the intended spatial-scale of the large-scale model to the typical grid size of high-resolution climate models. The domain of the large-scale model covers all of Japan, but the crop simulation is conducted for each local governmental area in Japan. The MCMC technique exhibits powerful capability to optimize multiple parameters in a nonlinear and fairly complex model. The application of the Bayesian approach is useful to quantify the uncertainty of model parameters in a comprehensive manner when researchers on crop modeling analyze the uncertainty of yield estimation associated with model parameters under given observations. A sensitivity analysis of the large-scale model was conducted with the obtained posterior distribution of parameters and warming conditions that have never been experienced before to demonstrate the change in the uncertainty of yield estimation associated with the uncertainty of parameters of the large-scale model. The uncertainty of yield estimation under warming conditions was larger than that obtained under climate conditions that have been experienced before. This raises a concern that the uncertainty of impact assessment on crop yield may increase if future climate projections are fed to crop models with parameters optimized under current climate conditions.
We present protocols and input data for Phase 1 of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison, a project of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). The project ...includes global simulations of yields, phenologies, and many land-surface fluxes using 12–15 modeling groups for many crops, climate forcing data sets, and scenarios over the historical period from 1948 to 2012. The primary outcomes of the project include (1) a detailed comparison of the major differences and similarities among global models commonly used for large-scale climate impact assessment, (2) an evaluation of model and ensemble hindcasting skill, (3) quantification of key uncertainties from climate input data, model choice, and other sources, and (4) a multi-model analysis of the agricultural impacts of large-scale climate extremes from the historical record.
The Global Yield Gap Atlas (GYGA) is an international project that addresses global food production capacity in the form of yield gaps (Yg). The GYGA project is unique in employing its original ...Climate Zonation Scheme (CZS) composed of three indexed factors, i.e. Growing Degree Days (GDD) related to temperature, Aridity Index (AI) related to available water and Temperature Seasonality (TS) related to annual temperature range, creating 300 Climate Zones (CZs) theoretically across the globe. In the present study, the GYGA CZs were identified for Japan on a municipality basis and analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed on irrigated rice yield data sets, equating to actual yields (Ya) in the GYGA context, from long-term government statistics. The ANOVA was conducted for the data sets over two decades between 1994 and 2016 by assigning the GDD score of 6 levels and the TS score of 2 levels as fixed factors. Significant interactions with respect to Ya were observed between GDD score and TS score for 13 years out of 21 years implying the existence of favourable combinations of the GDD score and the TS score for rice cultivation. The implication was also supported by the observation with Yg. The lower values of coefficient of variance obtained from the CZs characterized by medium GDD scores indicated the stability over time of rice yields in these areas. These findings suggest a possibility that the GYGA-CZS can be recognized as a tool suitable to identify favourable CZs for growing crops.
High temperatures occurring during flowering and early grain filling substantially decrease cereal yields. Drawing on accumulated evidence showing that, compared to air temperature (Ta), crop canopy ...temperature (Tc) better explains observed yield reductions caused by heat stress, we evaluated the usefulness of Tc versus Ta in designing high-temperature indicators for agrometeorological services, including crop monitoring and forecasting. The hot and dry environment of Sudan provides an ideal testbed. Tc was derived from the combined simulation of a crop model and a land surface model. Based on regressions linking the high-temperature indicators with irrigated wheat yield variations in 3 regions of Sudan over the last half-century, we found that using phenological periods rather than months for the wheat season (November to February), and using Tc rather than Ta, more effectively tracks the adverse effects of high temperature on yield during the key periods. The Tc-based indicators calculated for the key phenological periods have more robust multi-region applicability than the Ta-based indicators calculated for months and season, although they do not necessarily outperform the region-specific indicators in terms of explanatory power. We determined that the key periods were the vegetative growth period for the relatively cool region, and the reproductive growth period for the relatively hot regions. These findings suggest that agrometeorological services at the national and global levels should adopt Tc-based indicators, which will ultimately help players in global food systems adapt to climate change by preparing for wheat supply disruptions due to high-temperature extremes.
Summary
The physiological mechanisms underlying Stage II transport (STII), during which comminuted solid food is transported from the oral cavity into the meso‐pharynx for aggregation into a ...pre‐swallow bolus, have yet to be clarified. The purpose of the present study was to investigate relationships between tongue‐palate contact during mastication and incidence of STII by synchronised analysis of tongue pressure production on a hard palate and video‐endoscopic (VE) images during mastication. Tongue pressure at 5 measuring points with an ultra‐thin sensor sheet attached to the hard palate and trans‐nasal VE images while masticating corned beef was recorded for 12 healthy subjects. All recordings were divided into 2 groups: mastication with STII and without STII. Tongue pressure duration was longer at the anterior‐median part in the group with STII than in the group without STII. Integrated values of tongue pressure were greater at the anterior‐median parts and posterior circumferential part in the group with STII. Integrated values of tongue pressure per second were greater in late‐stage mastication than in early‐stage mastication in the group with STII. These results suggest that the tongue‐palate contacting at the anterior‐median and post‐circumferential parts of the hard palate is related with the incidence of STII.
Summary
Mastication is essential to the eating process and forms an important part of feeding behaviour. Many factors related to the food bolus, such as bolus texture and size, are known to influence ...mastication. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of body posture on (i) chewing duration prior to the first swallow and (ii) patterns of mastication‐related EMG activity. We asked 10 healthy adults to chew 8 g of steamed rice with barium sulphate while we recorded masseter, suprahyoid and infrahyoid muscle activity and simultaneously collected videofluorographic images. Participants chewed in either an upright or reclining position. Chewing duration, which was defined as the time from the start of mastication to the first swallow, was not different between the positions. However, the variability of chewing duration was larger in the upright versus reclining position, and the chewing duration in the reclining position was distributed around 15 s. Masseter activity gradually decreased in a time‐dependent manner and was significantly larger at the early versus late stage of mastication. Suprahyoid activity was significantly larger at the early versus middle stage of mastication in the upright position only. Finally, masseter activity per second was negatively correlated with changes in chewing duration, that is, the larger the increase in chewing duration in the reclining position, the more the decrease in masseter activity per second. These results suggest that position‐dependent changes in chewing behaviours, as described by chewing duration and EMG activity, may vary among participants.
Adaptation will be essential in many sectors, including agriculture, as a certain level of warming is anticipated even after substantial climate mitigation. However, global adaptation costs and ...adaptation limits in agriculture are understudied. Here, we estimate the global adaptation cost and residual damage (climate change impacts after adaptation) for maize, rice, wheat and soybean using a global gridded crop model and empirical production cost models. Producers require additional expenditures under climate change to produce the same crop yields that would be achieved without climate change, and this difference is defined as the adaptation cost. On a decadal mean basis, the undiscounted global cost of climate change (adaptation cost plus residual damage) for the crops are projected to increase with warming from 63 US$ billion (B) at 1.5°C to $80 B at 2°C and to $128 B at 3°C per year. The adaptation cost gradually increases in absolute terms, but the share decreases from 84% of the cost of climate change ($53 B) at 1.5°C to 76% ($61 B) at 2°C and to 61% ($78 B) at 3°C. The residual damage increases from 16% ($10 B) at 1.5°C to 24% ($19 B) at 2°C and to 39% ($50 B) at 3°C. Once maintaining yields becomes difficult due to the biological limits of crops or decreased profitability, producers can no longer bear adaptation costs, and residual damages increase. Our estimates offer a basis to identify the gap between global adaptation needs and the funds available for adaptation.
The relationship between climatic factors and crop yields for maize and soybeans in 3 major producing countries (the United States, Brazil, and China) was analyzed statistically. Temporal changes in ...the climate−yield relationship were considered, and the temporal and spatial variations were evaluated. County-level data from 1980 to 2006 were collected for each country and allocated to 1.125° × 1.125° grids. Data were analyzed for temporal changes in the effect of climate on yields using the particle filtering method for each grid. The 'current' effect of temperature on crop yields was shown to be geographically symmetric around the optimal temperatures (19.51°C for maize and 20.66°C for soybeans) in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, the 'current' effect of precipitation was more influential than that of temperature. The effects of these climatic factors changed over time.Whereas the negative effect of high temperatures has been mitigated around the corn belt of the United States during the last 3 decades, it has intensified in Brazil, northern China, and the southern United States for maize. Consequently, predicted future yields differed marginally depending on the relationship (past or current effect) used for the prediction, even when they were summarized on country scales. This study suggests that temporal changes in the relationship between weather and crop yields should be considered for better future predictions.
A method for estimating the area of crop damage due to tropical cyclones (TCs) by using fragility curves (FCs) is proposed. FCs, which represent the probability of damage caused by external forces, ...are one method considered appropriate for estimating structural damage caused by natural disasters. Here, FCs are applied to estimate the area of damage to paddy rice resulting from typhoons in Japan. The FCs for paddy rice are assumed to vary with growth stage. Statistical data on areas damaged by 42 typhoons that have struck Japan between 1991 and 2007, together with observed meteorological data, are used to derive the FCs. In general, our estimates agree with the reported areas of damage for the 42 typhoons, especially for typhoons that affected large areas of paddy rice. Moreover, from statistical data on crop damage due to typhoons, the proposed method successfully shows that the heading stage of paddy rice is the stage most vulnerable to typhoons, as found in earlier experimental studies and post-disaster investigations.
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