Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells.
A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global ...mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions). First, we fitted the location-specific, cold spell-related mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model with a lag period of up to 21 days. Second, we built a multivariate meta-regression model between location-specific associations and seven predictors. Finally, we predicted the global grid-specific cold spell-related mortality associations during 2000–19 using the fitted meta-regression model and the yearly grid-specific meta-predictors. We calculated the annual excess deaths, excess death ratio (excess deaths per 1000 deaths), and excess death rate (excess deaths per 100 000 population) due to cold spells for each grid across the world.
Globally, 205 932 (95% empirical CI eCI 162 692–250 337) excess deaths, representing 3·81 (95% eCI 2·93–4·71) excess deaths per 1000 deaths (excess death ratio), and 3·03 (2·33–3·75) excess deaths per 100 000 population (excess death rate) were associated with cold spells per year between 2000 and 2019. The annual average global excess death ratio in 2016–19 increased by 0·12 percentage points and the excess death rate in 2016–19 increased by 0·18 percentage points, compared with those in 2000–03. The mortality burden varied geographically. The excess death ratio and rate were highest in Europe, whereas these indicators were lowest in Africa. Temperate climates had higher excess death ratio and rate associated with cold spells than other climate zones.
Cold spells are associated with substantial mortality burden around the world with geographically varying patterns. Although the number of cold spells has on average been decreasing since year 2000, the public health threat of cold spells remains substantial. The findings indicate an urgency of taking local and regional measures to protect the public from the mortality burdens of cold spells.
Australian Research Council, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, EU's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion.
Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and ...comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones.
In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean temperature and mortality (all causes or non-external causes only) via the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative (MCC) Research Network. These data were collected during overlapping periods, spanning from Jan 1, 1969 to Dec 31, 2020. We projected daily mortality from Jan 1, 2000 to Dec 31, 2099, under four climate change scenarios corresponding to increasing emissions (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We compared the seasonality in projected mortality between decades by its shape, timings (the day-of-year) of minimum (trough) and maximum (peak) mortality, and sizes (peak-to-trough ratio and attributable fraction). Attributable fraction was used to measure the burden of seasonality of mortality. The results were summarised by climate zones.
The MCC dataset included 126 809 537 deaths from 707 locations within 43 countries or areas. After excluding the only two polar locations (both high-altitude locations in Peru) from climatic zone assessments, we analysed 126 766 164 deaths in 705 locations aggregated in four climate zones (tropical, arid, temperate, and continental). From the 2000s to the 2090s, our projections showed an increase in mortality during the warm seasons and a decrease in mortality during the cold seasons, albeit with mortality remaining high during the cold seasons, under all four SSP scenarios in the arid, temperate, and continental zones. The magnitude of this changing pattern was more pronounced under the high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), substantially altering the shape of seasonality of mortality and, under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), shifting the mortality peak from cold seasons to warm seasons in arid, temperate, and continental zones, and increasing the size of seasonality in all zones except the arid zone by the end of the century. In the 2090s compared with the 2000s, the change in peak-to-trough ratio (relative scale) ranged from 0·96 to 1·11, and the change in attributable fraction ranged from 0·002% to 0·06% under the SSP5-8.5 (highest emission) scenario.
A warming climate can substantially change the seasonality of mortality in the future. Our projections suggest that health-care systems should consider preparing for a potentially increased demand during warm seasons and sustained high demand during cold seasons, particularly in regions characterised by arid, temperate, and continental climates.
The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, provided by the Ministry of the Environment of Japan.
Background: In the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) I, the lowest prevalence of asthma and atopy was found in Reykjavík (Iceland) and Tartu (Estonia). The aim of this study was ...to compare home environments in Reykjavík and Tartu to a town with a higher prevalence of asthma and atopy (Uppsala, Sweden) in an attempt to identify factors in the indoor environment that could explain these differences.
Method: A random sample of 129 ECRHS II participants was included in this analysis at each of the three study centres. The subjects answered a questionnaire, blood was analysed for specific immunoglobulin E, a methacholine test was performed and home indoor measurements were taken.
Results: The prevalence of atopy was 11.9% in Reykjavík, 35.5% in Uppsala and 28.2% in Tartu (P < 0.04). The level of indoor cat allergen was significantly lower in Reykjavík compared with Uppsala (P = 0.05). No mite allergens were identified in the 41 homes investigated in Reykjavík, while this was the case in 16% and 72% of the households in Uppsala and Tartu, respectively (P = 0.001). A positive association was found between asthma symptoms and cat allergen levels odds ratio 1.53 (95% confidence interval 1.04–2.24), while the levels of viable moulds were significantly associated with increased bronchial responsiveness.
Conclusions: Indoor exposure to allergens, moulds and bacteria was lower in Reykjavík than in the Swedish and Estonian centres. This finding indicates that the lower prevalence of allergic sensitization in Reykjavík may partly be related to lower indoor allergen exposure.
Please cite this paper as: Gunnbjörnsdóttir MI, Norbäck D, Björnsson E, Soon A, Jarvis D, Jõgi R, Gislason D, Gislason T and Janson C. Indoor environment in three North European cities in relationship to atopy and respiratory symptoms. The Clinical Respiratory Journal 2009; 3: 85–94.
The experience of working under an ISO 17025 compliant quality system in a university environment is described in the example of the Testing Centre of University of Tartu. University-specific ...features of the quality system include that the Testing Centre acts as the “quality system server” for other units of the university and graduate students participate in the work carried out under the quality system. The benefits for the university and the graduate students are discussed. It is concluded that implementation of an ISO 17025 compatible quality system in a university is fully accomplishable and gives significant added value to the university by helping to destroy the ivory tower perception about universities and by introducing real-world flavour into the studies and broaden the minds (quality awareness) of the students.
The purpose of this study was to assess exposure to drinking water fluoride and evaluate the risk of dental fluorosis among the Estonian population. The study covered all 15 counties in Estonia and ...93.7% of population that has access to public water supplies. In Estonia groundwater is the main source for public water supply systems in most towns and rural settlements. The content of natural fluoride in water ranges from 0.01 to 7.20 mg/L. The exposure to different fluoride levels was assessed by linking data from previous studies on drinking water quality with databases of the Health Protection Inspectorate on water suppliers and the number of water consumers in water supply systems. Exposure assessment showed that 4% of the study population had excessive exposure to fluoride, mainly in small public water supplies in western and central Estonia, where the Silurian-Ordovician aquifer system is the only source of drinking water. There is a strong correlation between natural fluoride levels and the prevalence of dental fluorosis. Risk of dental fluorosis was calculated to different fluoride exposure levels over 1.5 mg/L.
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