Type 1 Interferons (IFNs) have been associated with positive effects on Coronaviruses. Previous studies point towards the superior potency of IFNβ compared to IFNα against viral infections. We ...conducted a three-armed, individually-randomized, open-label, controlled trial of IFNβ1a and IFNβ1b, comparing them against each other and a control group. Patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1 ratio to IFNβ1a (subcutaneous injections of 12,000 IU on days 1, 3, 6), IFNβ1b (subcutaneous injections of 8,000,000 IU on days 1, 3, 6), or the control group. All three arms orally received Lopinavir/Ritonavir (400 mg/100 mg twice a day for ten days) and a single dose of Hydroxychloroquine 400 mg on the first day. Our utilized primary outcome measure was Time To Clinical Improvement (TTCI) defined as the time from enrollment to discharge or a decline of two steps on the clinical seven-step ordinal scale, whichsoever came first. A total of 60 severely ill patients with positive RT-PCR and Chest CT scans underwent randomization (20 patients to each arm). In the Intention-To-Treat population, IFNβ1a was associated with a significant difference against the control group, in the TTCI; (HR; 2.36, 95% CI 1.10-5.17, P-value = 0.031) while the IFNβ1b indicated no significant difference compared with the control; HR; 1.42, (95% CI 0.63-3.16, P-value = 0.395). The median TTCI for both of the intervention groups was five days vs. seven days for the control group. The mortality was numerically lower in both of the intervention groups (20% in the IFNβ1a group and 30% in the IFNβ1b group vs. 45% in the control group). There were no significant differences between the three arms regarding the adverse events. In patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, as compared with the base therapeutic regiment, the benefit of a significant reduction in TTCI was observed in the IFNβ1a arm. This finding needs further confirmation in larger studies.Trial Registration Number: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04343768. (Submitted: 08/04/2020; First Online: 13/04/2020) (Registration Number: NCT04343768).
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has killed many people worldwide since December 2019, and Iran has been among the most affected countries. In this retrospective study, we aimed to ...determine the prognostic factors associated with mortality in COVID-19 patients by analyzing 396 survived and 63 non-survived patients in Shahid Modarres Hospital, Tehran, Iran, from January 30th until April 5th, 2020. As the results, the BMI > 35 (p = 0.0003), lung cancer (p = 0.007), chronic kidney disease (p = 0.002), Immunocompromised condition (p = 0.003), and diabetes (p = 0.018) were more frequently observed in the expired group. The history of statins use was more common in the discharged group (p = 0.002), while there was no significant difference in the drug history of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin II receptor blockers, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, aspirin, and/or steroids, and in the past-year influenza vaccination. Multivariable regression demonstrated rising odds of in-hospital death related with age (odds ratio (OR) = 1.055, p = 0.002), levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) (OR = 2.915, p < 0.001), creatinine (OR = 1.740, p = 0.023), lymphocyte count (OR = 0.999, p = 0.008), and magnesium level (OR = 0.032, p < 0.001) on admission. In conclusion, the patients with older age and higher BMI with lymphopenia, hypomagnesemia, elevated CRP and/or raised creatinine on admission are at higher risk of mortality due to the COVID-19 infection, which requires the physicians to use timely and strong therapeutic measures for such patients.
Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We ...estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout.
The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function.
Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval UI 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, −1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, −1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function.
Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Many causes of vision impairment can be prevented or treated. With an ageing global population, the demands for eye health services are increasing. We estimated the prevalence and relative ...contribution of avoidable causes of blindness and vision impairment globally from 1990 to 2020. We aimed to compare the results with the World Health Assembly Global Action Plan (WHA GAP) target of a 25% global reduction from 2010 to 2019 in avoidable vision impairment, defined as cataract and undercorrected refractive error.
We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based surveys of eye disease from January, 1980, to October, 2018. We fitted hierarchical models to estimate prevalence (with 95% uncertainty intervals UIs) of moderate and severe vision impairment (MSVI; presenting visual acuity from <6/18 to 3/60) and blindness (<3/60 or less than 10° visual field around central fixation) by cause, age, region, and year. Because of data sparsity at younger ages, our analysis focused on adults aged 50 years and older.
Global crude prevalence of avoidable vision impairment and blindness in adults aged 50 years and older did not change between 2010 and 2019 (percentage change −0·2% 95% UI −1·5 to 1·0; 2019 prevalence 9·58 cases per 1000 people 95% IU 8·51 to 10·8, 2010 prevalence 96·0 cases per 1000 people 86·0 to 107·0). Age-standardised prevalence of avoidable blindness decreased by −15·4% –16·8 to −14·3, while avoidable MSVI showed no change (0·5% –0·8 to 1·6). However, the number of cases increased for both avoidable blindness (10·8% 8·9 to 12·4) and MSVI (31·5% 30·0 to 33·1). The leading global causes of blindness in those aged 50 years and older in 2020 were cataract (15·2 million cases 9% IU 12·7–18·0), followed by glaucoma (3·6 million cases 2·8–4·4), undercorrected refractive error (2·3 million cases 1·8–2·8), age-related macular degeneration (1·8 million cases 1·3–2·4), and diabetic retinopathy (0·86 million cases 0·59–1·23). Leading causes of MSVI were undercorrected refractive error (86·1 million cases 74·2–101·0) and cataract (78·8 million cases 67·2–91·4).
Results suggest eye care services contributed to the observed reduction of age-standardised rates of avoidable blindness but not of MSVI, and that the target in an ageing global population was not reached.
Brien Holden Vision Institute, Fondation Théa, The Fred Hollows Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Lions Clubs International Foundation, Sightsavers International, and University of Heidelberg.
Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international ...health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries.
We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories—government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending—and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resources for health.
Between 1995 and 2016, health spending grew at a rate of 4·00% (95% uncertainty interval 3·89–4·12) annually, although it grew slower in per capita terms (2·72% 2·61–2·84) and increased by less than $1 per capita over this period in 22 of 195 countries. The highest annual growth rates in per capita health spending were observed in upper-middle-income countries (5·55% 5·18–5·95), mainly due to growth in government health spending, and in lower-middle-income countries (3·71% 3·10–4·34), mainly from DAH. Health spending globally reached $8·0 trillion (7·8–8·1) in 2016 (comprising 8·6% 8·4–8·7 of the global economy and $10·3 trillion 10·1–10·6 in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), with a per capita spending of US$5252 (5184–5319) in high-income countries, $491 (461–524) in upper-middle-income countries, $81 (74–89) in lower-middle-income countries, and $40 (38–43) in low-income countries. In 2016, 0·4% (0·3–0·4) of health spending globally was in low-income countries, despite these countries comprising 10·0% of the global population. In 2018, the largest proportion of DAH targeted HIV/AIDS ($9·5 billion, 24·3% of total DAH), although spending on other infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis and malaria) grew fastest from 2010 to 2018 (6·27% per year). The leading sources of DAH were the USA and private philanthropy (excluding corporate donations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). For the first time, we included estimates of China's contribution to DAH ($644·7 million in 2018). Globally, health spending is projected to increase to $15·0 trillion (14·0–16·0) by 2050 (reaching 9·4% 7·6–11·3 of the global economy and $21·3 trillion 19·8–23·1 in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), but at a lower growth rate of 1·84% (1·68–2·02) annually, and with continuing disparities in spending between countries. In 2050, we estimate that 0·6% (0·6–0·7) of health spending will occur in currently low-income countries, despite these countries comprising an estimated 15·7% of the global population by 2050. The ratio between per capita health spending in high-income and low-income countries was 130·2 (122·9–136·9) in 2016 and is projected to remain at similar levels in 2050 (125·9 113·7–138·1). The decomposition analysis identified governments’ increased prioritisation of the health sector and economic development as the strongest factors associated with increases in government health spending globally. Future government health spending scenarios suggest that, with greater prioritisation of the health sector and increased government spending, health spending per capita could more than double, with greater impacts in countries that currently have the lowest levels of government health spending.
Financing for global health has increased steadily over the past two decades and is projected to continue increasing in the future, although at a slower pace of growth and with persistent disparities in per-capita health spending between countries. Out-of-pocket spending is projected to remain substantial outside of high-income countries. Many low-income countries are expected to remain dependent on development assistance, although with greater government spending, larger investments in health are feasible. In the absence of sustained new investments in health, increasing efficiency in health spending is essential to meet global health targets.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Brain and CNS cancers (collectively referred to as CNS cancers) are a source of mortality and morbidity for which diagnosis and treatment require extensive resource allocation and sophisticated ...diagnostic and therapeutic technology. Previous epidemiological studies are limited to specific geographical regions or time periods, making them difficult to compare on a global scale. In this analysis, we aimed to provide a comparable and comprehensive estimation of the global burden of brain cancer between 1990 and 2016.
We report means and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) estimates for CNS cancers (according to the International Classification of Diseases tenth revision: malignant neoplasm of meninges, malignant neoplasm of brain, and malignant neoplasm of spinal cord, cranial nerves, and other parts of CNS) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016. Data sources include vital registration and cancer registry data. Mortality was modelled using an ensemble model approach. Incidence was estimated by dividing the final mortality estimates by mortality to incidence ratios. DALYs were estimated by summing years of life lost and years lived with disability. Locations were grouped into quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate.
In 2016, there were 330 000 (95% UI 299 000 to 349 000) incident cases of CNS cancer and 227 000 (205 000 to 241 000) deaths globally, and age-standardised incidence rates of CNS cancer increased globally by 17·3% (95% UI 11·4 to 26·9) between 1990 and 2016 (2016 age-standardised incidence rate 4·63 per 100 000 person-years 4·17 to 4·90). The highest age-standardised incidence rate was in the highest quintile of SDI (6·91 5·71 to 7·53). Age-standardised incidence rates increased with each SDI quintile. East Asia was the region with the most incident cases of CNS cancer for both sexes in 2016 (108 000 95% UI 98 000 to 122 000), followed by western Europe (49 000 37 000 to 54 000), and south Asia (31 000 29 000 to 37 000). The top three countries with the highest number of incident cases were China, the USA, and India. CNS cancer was responsible for 7·7 million (95% UI 6·9 to 8·3) DALYs globally, a non-significant change in age-standardised DALY rate of −10·0% (−16·4 to 2·6) between 1990 and 2016. The age-standardised DALY rate decreased in the high SDI quintile (−10·0% –27·1 to −0·1) and high-middle SDI quintile (−10·5% –18·4 to −1·4) over time but increased in the low SDI quintile (22·5% 11·2 to 50·5).
CNS cancer is responsible for substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide, and incidence increased between 1990 and 2016. Significant geographical and regional variation in the incidence of CNS cancer might be reflective of differences in diagnoses and reporting practices or unknown environmental and genetic risk factors. Future efforts are needed to analyse CNS cancer burden by subtype.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
BACKGROUND:Nonrheumatic valvular diseases are common; however, no studies have estimated their global or national burden. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, mortality, prevalence, ...and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD), degenerative mitral valve disease, and other nonrheumatic valvular diseases were estimated for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017.
METHODS:Vital registration data, epidemiologic survey data, and administrative hospital data were used to estimate disease burden using the Global Burden of Disease Study modeling framework, which ensures comparability across locations. Geospatial statistical methods were used to estimate disease for all countries, because data on nonrheumatic valvular diseases are extremely limited for some regions of the world, such as Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Results accounted for estimated level of disease severity as well as the estimated availability of valve repair or replacement procedures. DALYs and other measures of health-related burden were generated for both sexes and each 5-year age group, location, and year from 1990 to 2017.
RESULTS:Globally, CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease caused 102 700 (95% uncertainty interval UI, 82 700–107 900) and 35 700 (95% UI, 30 500–42 500) deaths, and 12.6 million (95% UI, 11.4 million–13.8 million) and 18.1 million (95% UI, 17.6 million–18.6 million) prevalent cases existed in 2017, respectively. A total of 2.5 million (95% UI, 2.3 million–2.8 million) DALYs were estimated as caused by nonrheumatic valvular diseases globally, representing 0.10% (95% UI, 0.09%–0.11%) of total lost health from all diseases in 2017. The number of DALYs increased for CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease between 1990 and 2017 by 101% (95% UI, 79%–117%) and 35% (95% UI, 23%–47%), respectively. There is significant geographic variation in the prevalence, mortality rate, and overall burden of these diseases, with highest age-standardized DALY rates of CAVD estimated for high-income countries.
CONCLUSIONS:These global and national estimates demonstrate that CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease are important causes of disease burden among older adults. Efforts to clarify modifiable risk factors and improve access to valve interventions are necessary if progress is to be made toward reducing, and eventually eliminating, the burden of these highly treatable diseases.
Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases (collectively referred to as cirrhosis in this paper) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally, although the burden and underlying causes ...differ across locations and demographic groups. We report on results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 on the burden of cirrhosis and its trends since 1990, by cause, sex, and age, for 195 countries and territories.
We used data from vital registrations, vital registration samples, and verbal autopsies to estimate mortality. We modelled prevalence of total, compensated, and decompensated cirrhosis on the basis of hospital and claims data. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost due to premature death and years lived with disability. Estimates are presented as numbers and age-standardised or age-specific rates per 100 000 population, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). All estimates are presented for five causes of cirrhosis: hepatitis B, hepatitis C, alcohol-related liver disease, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and other causes. We compared mortality, prevalence, and DALY estimates with those expected according to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as a proxy for the development status of regions and countries.
In 2017, cirrhosis caused more than 1·32 million (95% UI 1·27–1·45) deaths (440 000 416 000–518 000; 33·3% in females and 883 000 838 000–967 000; 66·7% in males) globally, compared with less than 899 000 (829 000–948 000) deaths in 1990. Deaths due to cirrhosis constituted 2·4% (2·3–2·6) of total deaths globally in 2017 compared with 1·9% (1·8–2·0) in 1990. Despite an increase in the number of deaths, the age-standardised death rate decreased from 21·0 (19·2–22·3) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 16·5 (15·8–18·1) per 100 000 population in 2017. Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest age-standardised death rate among GBD super-regions for all years of the study period (32·2 25·8–38·6 deaths per 100 000 population in 2017), and the high-income super-region had the lowest (10·1 9·8–10·5 deaths per 100 000 population in 2017). The age-standardised death rate decreased or remained constant from 1990 to 2017 in all GBD regions except eastern Europe and central Asia, where the age-standardised death rate increased, primarily due to increases in alcohol-related liver disease prevalence. At the national level, the age-standardised death rate of cirrhosis was lowest in Singapore in 2017 (3·7 3·3–4·0 per 100 000 in 2017) and highest in Egypt in all years since 1990 (103·3 64·4–133·4 per 100 000 in 2017). There were 10·6 million (10·3–10·9) prevalent cases of decompensated cirrhosis and 112 million (107–119) prevalent cases of compensated cirrhosis globally in 2017. There was a significant increase in age-standardised prevalence rate of decompensated cirrhosis between 1990 and 2017. Cirrhosis caused by NASH had a steady age-standardised death rate throughout the study period, whereas the other four causes showed declines in age-standardised death rate. The age-standardised prevalence of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH increased more than for any other cause of cirrhosis (by 33·2% for compensated cirrhosis and 54·8% for decompensated cirrhosis) over the study period. From 1990 to 2017, the number of prevalent cases more than doubled for compensated cirrhosis due to NASH and more than tripled for decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH. In 2017, age-standardised death and DALY rates were lower among countries and territories with higher SDI.
Cirrhosis imposes a substantial health burden on many countries and this burden has increased at the global level since 1990, partly due to population growth and ageing. Although the age-standardised death and DALY rates of cirrhosis decreased from 1990 to 2017, numbers of deaths and DALYs and the proportion of all global deaths due to cirrhosis increased. Despite the availability of effective interventions for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis B and C, they were still the main causes of cirrhosis burden worldwide, particularly in low-income countries. The impact of hepatitis B and C is expected to be attenuated and overtaken by that of NASH in the near future. Cost-effective interventions are required to continue the prevention and treatment of viral hepatitis, and to achieve early diagnosis and prevention of cirrhosis due to alcohol-related liver disease and NASH.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Although the burden of influenza is often discussed in the context of historical pandemics and the threat of future pandemics, every year a substantial burden of lower respiratory tract infections ...(LRTIs) and other respiratory conditions (like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) are attributable to seasonal influenza. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017 is a systematic scientific effort to quantify the health loss associated with a comprehensive set of diseases and disabilities. In this Article, we focus on LRTIs that can be attributed to influenza.
We modelled the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality attributable to influenza for every country and selected subnational locations by age and year from 1990 to 2017 as part of GBD 2017. We used a counterfactual approach that first estimated the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality and then attributed a fraction of those outcomes to influenza.
Influenza LRTI was responsible for an estimated 145 000 (95% uncertainty interval UI 99 000–200 000) deaths among all ages in 2017. The influenza LRTI mortality rate was highest among adults older than 70 years (16·4 deaths per 100 000 95% UI 11·6–21·9), and the highest rate among all ages was in eastern Europe (5·2 per 100 000 population 95% UI 3·5–7·2). We estimated that influenza LRTIs accounted for 9 459 000 (95% UI 3 709 000–22 935 000) hospitalisations due to LRTIs and 81 536 000 hospital days (24 330 000–259 851 000). We estimated that 11·5% (95% UI 10·0–12·9) of LRTI episodes were attributable to influenza, corresponding to 54 481 000 (38 465 000–73 864 000) episodes and 8 172 000 severe episodes (5 000 000–13 296 000).
This comprehensive assessment of the burden of influenza LRTIs shows the substantial annual effect of influenza on global health. Although preparedness planning will be important for potential pandemics, health loss due to seasonal influenza LRTIs should not be overlooked, and vaccine use should be considered. Efforts to improve influenza prevention measures are needed.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Gastro-oesophageal reflux disease is a common chronic ailment that causes uncomfortable symptoms and increases the risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma. We aimed to report the burden of ...gastro-oesophageal reflux disease in 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017, using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017.
We did a systematic review to identify measurements of the prevalence of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease in geographically defined populations worldwide between 1990 and 2017. These estimates were analysed with DisMod-MR, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool that incorporates predictive covariates and adjustments for differences in study design in a geographical cascade of models. Fitted values for broader geographical units inform prior distributions for finer geographical units. Prevalence was estimated for 195 countries and territories. Reports of the frequency and severity of symptoms among individuals with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease were used to estimate the prevalence of cases with no, mild to moderate, or severe to very severe symptoms at a given time; these estimates were multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLD).
Data to estimate gastro-oesophageal reflux disease burden were scant, totalling 144 location-years (unique measurements from a year and location, regardless of whether a study reported them alongside measurements for other locations or years) of prevalence data. These came from six (86%) of seven GBD super-regions, 11 (52%) of 21 GBD regions, and 39 (20%) of 195 countries and territories. Mean estimates of age-standardised prevalence for all locations in 2017 ranged from 4408 cases per 100 000 population to 14 035 cases per 100 000 population. Age-standardised prevalence was highest (>11 000 cases per 100 000 population) in the USA, Italy, Greece, New Zealand, and several countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, north Africa and the Middle East, and eastern Europe; it was lowest (<7000 cases per 100 000 population) in the high-income Asia Pacific, east Asia, Iceland, France, Denmark, and Switzerland. Global prevalence peaked at ages 75–79 years, at 18 820 (95% uncertainty interval 95% UI 13 770–24 000) cases per 100 000 population. Global age-standardised prevalence was stable between 1990 and 2017 (8791 95% UI 7772–9834 cases per 100 000 population in 1990 and 8819 7781–9863 cases per 100 000 population in 2017, percentage change 0·3% –0·3 to 0·9), but all-age prevalence increased by 18·1% (15·6–20·4) between 1990 and 2017, from 7859 (6905–8851) cases per 100 000 population in 1990 to 9283 (8189–10 400) cases per 100 000 population in 2017. YLDs increased by 67·1% (95% UI 63·5–70·3) between 1990 and 2017, from 3·60 million (1·93–6·12) in 1990 to 6·01 million (3·22–10·19) in 2017.
Gastro-oesophageal reflux disease is common worldwide, although less so in much of eastern Asia. The stability of our global age-standardised prevalence estimates over time suggests that the epidemiology of the disease has not changed, but the estimates of all-age prevalence and YLDs, which increased between 1990 and 2017, suggest that the burden of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease is nonetheless increasing as a result of ageing and population growth.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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